Wild Card Weekend Parlay (+258): Chargers Stymy Jacksonville in Low-Scoring Affair
Best Bet: Parlay Chargers pk at -114 & under 47.5 at -110 at +258 odds with BetOnline
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC) at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
The Odds
This game has the second-highest posted total -- as of Tuesday morning, the over/under is 47.5.
It is easy to see why a high-scoring game appears realistic: we get two high-upside quarterbacks whom people generally rate highly, some awesomely elusive running backs, and solid pass-catching corpses.
But how likely are these attractive offensive features to lead to a sufficiently high-scoring affair?
Jaguar Point Totals
For all the hype surrounding Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence, let's consider recent Jaguar games.
Most recently, Jacksonville and Tennessee combined for 36 points.
Before that, the Jags and Texans combined for 34 points after the Jaguars and Jets combined for 22 points on a rainy night.
Charger Point Totals
Let's consider recent Charger games.
Before a meaningless Week 18 contest, the Chargers and Rams combined for 41 points after the Chargers and Dolphins combined for 40 points, the Chargers and Titans combined for 31, and the Chargers and Colts combined for 23.
Considering Higher-Scoring Games
Now, the Chargers Raiders combined for 47 points before these games, and the Jaguars and Cowboys combined for 74 before the above-mentioned games.
What was special about the Chargers-Raiders and Jaguar-Cowboys games?
The Cowboys-Jaguars game was high-scoring because the Jaguars had an easy time against a Cowboy cornerback group that was beleaguered -- two of Dallas' top three cornerbacks were injured.
Also, Dallas' pass attack is relatively aggressive.
Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott ranks sixth in yards per attempt and fourth in aggressiveness, according to Next Gen Stats.
As for the Charger-Raider game, the Raiders scored two touchdowns off three plays thanks to great field position and the play of elite wide receiver Davante Adams.
Charger Offensive Style
One might expect the Chargers to score a lot because their offense might seem like an improved version of Dallas -- the Chargers have a better quarterback and more well-rounded wide receiver group while also having a strong running back.
But the Charger offense is not aggressive. Quarterback Justin Herbert ranks 28thin yards per attempt.
He does not like to move downfield in a hurry -- this is especially true with Mike Williams, his best deep threat, reeling.
While X-Rays for Williams' injured back came back negative and his participation in Saturday's game is expected, he will probably be rather banged-up.
Hence, Charger games will go "over" when there's a game-changer like Davante Adams who can score in a hurry.
But Jacksonville certainly lacks a Davante Adams -- its top wide receivers weren't even the leading wide receiver on their former respective teams.
Expect Los Angeles to progress downfield slowly, with the clock ticking and ticking.
Trevor Lawrence's Outlook
It is easy to dismiss Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence's recent streak of bad starts -- he played tight and unusually error-prone against the Titans; he had an easy time against lowly Houston; he played in the rain against the Jets.
But his game against the Jets calls further attention to his tendency to suffer against higher-ranked pass defenses.
Hence, he struggled against Detroit's vastly improved pass defense. His passing stats were likewise poor against the Commanders, Eagles, and Broncos.
Washington and Philadelphia rank top-four in pass defense. Denver ranks 12th. The Chargers rank seventh.
While Lawrence thrived against the Chargers in Week 3, the Chargers had elite pass-rusher Joey Bosa leave the game.
Besides, their secondary is much better than it was against the beginning of the season.
Besides the meaningless Week 18 affair, the Charger pass defense ranks first since Week 14, whereas it had ranked 18that the team's bye week.
This is the quality of defense -- especially with Bosa's pass-rushing prowess expected to be available to L.A. -- against which Lawrence struggles.
Predicted Point Total
Jacksonville will lean on its rush attack against a defense whose weakness is defending the run,
But two key things will prevent the team from scoring enough touchdowns: Trevor Lawrence's struggle against a high-level pass defense and Jacksonville's red zone struggles.
As was evident in Week 18 against the Titans and throughout its season, Jacksonville has problems finding the end zone.
In particular, advanced stats have shown Lawrence's problems in the red zone area.
So, in the rarer instances in which the Jaguar offense advances into the red zone, the team will also struggle to reach the end zone.
But the Chargers won't score too many points either, with their frequently conservative offense plodding along against a bend-but-don't break Jaguar defense.
Both teams will struggle to reach 20 points.
The Side
With early line movement favoring Jacksonville, the Charger side has great value.
Jacksonville's pass defense looks better than it is because it has recently encountered backup-caliber quarterbacks such as Titan Josh Dobbs, Texan Davis Mills, and Jet Zach Wilson.
But the Jaguar pass defense is one of the worst according to an advanced evaluative metric called DVOA.
Herbert struggled in Week 3 because he had just suffered an awful rib injury which Jacksonville's defense took advantage of by trying to force him to make throws that exert stronger pressure on a quarterback's ribs.
But Jacksonville consistently struggles against stronger quarterbacks and stronger wide receivers, with the Dallas and Detroit games providing more recent examples.
While Mike Williams may be banged-up, Keenan Allen has been elite, as evident in his weekly reception-to-target ratios and yardage totals.
Allen intelligently finds holes in the defense and takes what is available.
Austin Ekeler will also be an asset also in the passing game against a Jaguar defense that allows the third-most receiving yards to running backs.
Overall, the Charger pass attack will face vastly less resistance against Jacksonville's top-heavy and overall inferior secondary and pass rush combo.
Best Bet: Parlay Chargers pk at -114 & under 47.5 at -110 at +258 odds with BetOnline
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC) at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
The Odds
This game has the second-highest posted total -- as of Tuesday morning, the over/under is 47.5.
It is easy to see why a high-scoring game appears realistic: we get two high-upside quarterbacks whom people generally rate highly, some awesomely elusive running backs, and solid pass-catching corpses.
But how likely are these attractive offensive features to lead to a sufficiently high-scoring affair?
Jaguar Point Totals
For all the hype surrounding Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence, let's consider recent Jaguar games.
Most recently, Jacksonville and Tennessee combined for 36 points.
Before that, the Jags and Texans combined for 34 points after the Jaguars and Jets combined for 22 points on a rainy night.
Charger Point Totals
Let's consider recent Charger games.
Before a meaningless Week 18 contest, the Chargers and Rams combined for 41 points after the Chargers and Dolphins combined for 40 points, the Chargers and Titans combined for 31, and the Chargers and Colts combined for 23.
Considering Higher-Scoring Games
Now, the Chargers Raiders combined for 47 points before these games, and the Jaguars and Cowboys combined for 74 before the above-mentioned games.
What was special about the Chargers-Raiders and Jaguar-Cowboys games?
The Cowboys-Jaguars game was high-scoring because the Jaguars had an easy time against a Cowboy cornerback group that was beleaguered -- two of Dallas' top three cornerbacks were injured.
Also, Dallas' pass attack is relatively aggressive.
Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott ranks sixth in yards per attempt and fourth in aggressiveness, according to Next Gen Stats.
As for the Charger-Raider game, the Raiders scored two touchdowns off three plays thanks to great field position and the play of elite wide receiver Davante Adams.
Charger Offensive Style
One might expect the Chargers to score a lot because their offense might seem like an improved version of Dallas -- the Chargers have a better quarterback and more well-rounded wide receiver group while also having a strong running back.
But the Charger offense is not aggressive. Quarterback Justin Herbert ranks 28thin yards per attempt.
He does not like to move downfield in a hurry -- this is especially true with Mike Williams, his best deep threat, reeling.
While X-Rays for Williams' injured back came back negative and his participation in Saturday's game is expected, he will probably be rather banged-up.
Hence, Charger games will go "over" when there's a game-changer like Davante Adams who can score in a hurry.
But Jacksonville certainly lacks a Davante Adams -- its top wide receivers weren't even the leading wide receiver on their former respective teams.
Expect Los Angeles to progress downfield slowly, with the clock ticking and ticking.
Trevor Lawrence's Outlook
It is easy to dismiss Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence's recent streak of bad starts -- he played tight and unusually error-prone against the Titans; he had an easy time against lowly Houston; he played in the rain against the Jets.
But his game against the Jets calls further attention to his tendency to suffer against higher-ranked pass defenses.
Hence, he struggled against Detroit's vastly improved pass defense. His passing stats were likewise poor against the Commanders, Eagles, and Broncos.
Washington and Philadelphia rank top-four in pass defense. Denver ranks 12th. The Chargers rank seventh.
While Lawrence thrived against the Chargers in Week 3, the Chargers had elite pass-rusher Joey Bosa leave the game.
Besides, their secondary is much better than it was against the beginning of the season.
Besides the meaningless Week 18 affair, the Charger pass defense ranks first since Week 14, whereas it had ranked 18that the team's bye week.
This is the quality of defense -- especially with Bosa's pass-rushing prowess expected to be available to L.A. -- against which Lawrence struggles.
Predicted Point Total
Jacksonville will lean on its rush attack against a defense whose weakness is defending the run,
But two key things will prevent the team from scoring enough touchdowns: Trevor Lawrence's struggle against a high-level pass defense and Jacksonville's red zone struggles.
As was evident in Week 18 against the Titans and throughout its season, Jacksonville has problems finding the end zone.
In particular, advanced stats have shown Lawrence's problems in the red zone area.
So, in the rarer instances in which the Jaguar offense advances into the red zone, the team will also struggle to reach the end zone.
But the Chargers won't score too many points either, with their frequently conservative offense plodding along against a bend-but-don't break Jaguar defense.
Both teams will struggle to reach 20 points.
The Side
With early line movement favoring Jacksonville, the Charger side has great value.
Jacksonville's pass defense looks better than it is because it has recently encountered backup-caliber quarterbacks such as Titan Josh Dobbs, Texan Davis Mills, and Jet Zach Wilson.
But the Jaguar pass defense is one of the worst according to an advanced evaluative metric called DVOA.
Herbert struggled in Week 3 because he had just suffered an awful rib injury which Jacksonville's defense took advantage of by trying to force him to make throws that exert stronger pressure on a quarterback's ribs.
But Jacksonville consistently struggles against stronger quarterbacks and stronger wide receivers, with the Dallas and Detroit games providing more recent examples.
While Mike Williams may be banged-up, Keenan Allen has been elite, as evident in his weekly reception-to-target ratios and yardage totals.
Allen intelligently finds holes in the defense and takes what is available.
Austin Ekeler will also be an asset also in the passing game against a Jaguar defense that allows the third-most receiving yards to running backs.
Overall, the Charger pass attack will face vastly less resistance against Jacksonville's top-heavy and overall inferior secondary and pass rush combo.
