Chargers vs. Broncos Week 18 Betting Preview: Defense Rules Chargers-Broncos Matchup
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, January 8, 2023 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Mile High Stadium in Denver
Best Bet: Under 39.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Chargers' Situation
While the Chargers' head coach has specified that he will not rest his starters, we have to be mindful of the team's situation.
All the more so because players are still getting used to playing a longer regular season, health and rest are eminently important to a team that will participate in the playoffs.
The Chargers are only concerned with seeding, although, importantly, they will not be playing at least their first game at home.
In their best-case scenario -- if they beat Denver or if Baltimore loses in Cincinnati -- they would play their first-round game in the stadium of the AFC South winner, meaning in Nashville to face the Titans or in Jacksonville to face the Jaguars.
The upshot of this consideration is that we should be particularly skeptical about L.A.'s desire to win on Sunday because their winning appears of lesser importance in view of their upcoming playoff game -- they obviously won't get a first-round bye.
I emphasize this because it is often tempting to play road favorites because you're getting the "better team" at a short number.
But the Chargers offense, in particular, can't be relied upon on Sunday.
The team's major players -- its quarterback and top wide receivers -- have dealt with significant injuries.
Starting running back Austin Ekeler is bruised and battered.
The Chargers will not want anything to happen to these guys in a rather meaningless game.
Denver's Defense
Even if the Chargers were to care most deeply about Sunday's game, they face a Bronco defense that allows the third-fewest points at home.
In these teams' first meeting, Denver allowed 19 points in overtime at the Chargers.
Acclimated to their high altitude, Bronco players regularly present a unique challenge to visiting opponents.
While the Broncos were obliterated on the road against the Rams, they looked like their normal selves against last week.
Firing their head coach is facilitating the growth of a harder and more motivated defensive unit.
Bronco Run Defense
Last week, Denver shut down Kansas City's rush attack, limiting the Chiefs to 46 yards rushing on 16 rush attempts.
The Broncos also allow 23 fewer rushing yards at home than they do on the road.
With a late-season knee injury, Charger running back Austin Ekeler has had his workload managed.
He's running the ball fewer times, meaning that the Chargers' top running back is having less opportunities to challenge a strong Bronco home run defense.
Pat Surtain
As for their pass defense, the Broncos are led by Pat Surtain.
He allows a 93 passer rating despite having to deal with other teams' top wide receivers, such as Raider Davante Adams.
In Week 6, he held deep threat Mike Williams to zero yards and zero receptions on four targets.
His ability to lock down the opponent's most dangerous wide receiver is tremendous.
He can take away Herbert's best deep threat.
Combined with Ekeler's limitations, quarterback Justin Herbert will also in view of Williams' negative outlook have trouble moving his team downfield.
Yards won't come easy against this Bronco defense.
Denver's Offensive Outlook
The disaster that is quarterback Russell Wilson is well-known, and Denver is stuck with him.
Wilson needs to eradicate his season-long inclination to throw low-percentage passes downfield that are likelier to get intercepted.
Last week, Wilson was intercepted once in 38 tries.
Compared with other quarterbacks, he had last week by far the lowest IAY (intended air yards).
This conservative approach helped him sustain drives by featuring the abilities of his wide receivers and by avoiding back-breaking interceptions and other mistakes.
What this means is that, combined with a run-centered approach especially given the Chargers' defensive weakness on the run, Denver will attempt to grind out drives.
Again, yards won't come easy.
The clock will be running as miserable Wilson tries to test, modestly, the Chargers' sixth-ranked pass defense, while the Broncos foreground their mediocre -- in terms of efficiency -- running backs.
Even while resting questionable players, such as safety Derwin James, the Charger defense has been superb at limiting opposing scoring.
L.A. is well-equipped to make it hard for offensively challenged Denver to reach double digits.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, January 8, 2023 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Mile High Stadium in Denver
Best Bet: Under 39.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Chargers' Situation
While the Chargers' head coach has specified that he will not rest his starters, we have to be mindful of the team's situation.
All the more so because players are still getting used to playing a longer regular season, health and rest are eminently important to a team that will participate in the playoffs.
The Chargers are only concerned with seeding, although, importantly, they will not be playing at least their first game at home.
In their best-case scenario -- if they beat Denver or if Baltimore loses in Cincinnati -- they would play their first-round game in the stadium of the AFC South winner, meaning in Nashville to face the Titans or in Jacksonville to face the Jaguars.
The upshot of this consideration is that we should be particularly skeptical about L.A.'s desire to win on Sunday because their winning appears of lesser importance in view of their upcoming playoff game -- they obviously won't get a first-round bye.
I emphasize this because it is often tempting to play road favorites because you're getting the "better team" at a short number.
But the Chargers offense, in particular, can't be relied upon on Sunday.
The team's major players -- its quarterback and top wide receivers -- have dealt with significant injuries.
Starting running back Austin Ekeler is bruised and battered.
The Chargers will not want anything to happen to these guys in a rather meaningless game.
Denver's Defense
Even if the Chargers were to care most deeply about Sunday's game, they face a Bronco defense that allows the third-fewest points at home.
In these teams' first meeting, Denver allowed 19 points in overtime at the Chargers.
Acclimated to their high altitude, Bronco players regularly present a unique challenge to visiting opponents.
While the Broncos were obliterated on the road against the Rams, they looked like their normal selves against last week.
Firing their head coach is facilitating the growth of a harder and more motivated defensive unit.
Bronco Run Defense
Last week, Denver shut down Kansas City's rush attack, limiting the Chiefs to 46 yards rushing on 16 rush attempts.
The Broncos also allow 23 fewer rushing yards at home than they do on the road.
With a late-season knee injury, Charger running back Austin Ekeler has had his workload managed.
He's running the ball fewer times, meaning that the Chargers' top running back is having less opportunities to challenge a strong Bronco home run defense.
Pat Surtain
As for their pass defense, the Broncos are led by Pat Surtain.
He allows a 93 passer rating despite having to deal with other teams' top wide receivers, such as Raider Davante Adams.
In Week 6, he held deep threat Mike Williams to zero yards and zero receptions on four targets.
His ability to lock down the opponent's most dangerous wide receiver is tremendous.
He can take away Herbert's best deep threat.
Combined with Ekeler's limitations, quarterback Justin Herbert will also in view of Williams' negative outlook have trouble moving his team downfield.
Yards won't come easy against this Bronco defense.
Denver's Offensive Outlook
The disaster that is quarterback Russell Wilson is well-known, and Denver is stuck with him.
Wilson needs to eradicate his season-long inclination to throw low-percentage passes downfield that are likelier to get intercepted.
Last week, Wilson was intercepted once in 38 tries.
Compared with other quarterbacks, he had last week by far the lowest IAY (intended air yards).
This conservative approach helped him sustain drives by featuring the abilities of his wide receivers and by avoiding back-breaking interceptions and other mistakes.
What this means is that, combined with a run-centered approach especially given the Chargers' defensive weakness on the run, Denver will attempt to grind out drives.
Again, yards won't come easy.
The clock will be running as miserable Wilson tries to test, modestly, the Chargers' sixth-ranked pass defense, while the Broncos foreground their mediocre -- in terms of efficiency -- running backs.
Even while resting questionable players, such as safety Derwin James, the Charger defense has been superb at limiting opposing scoring.
L.A. is well-equipped to make it hard for offensively challenged Denver to reach double digits.
