changing my nfl betting this year to moneylines only

[dopples]

i dont like the idea of spreads

teams dont care about covering x amount of points. burned 2 many times.

so im betting MLs only this season and want 2know if anyone else is doing it or already do it?

 

[scarf31]

You have any wheelhouse of what range plays you’re targeting, @dopples ?

Something like 7 point faves to 7 point dogs on the ML?

 

[dopples]

ty 4 asking

week 1
eagles in ml parlays

ravens -280
kc -185
clev -230
carolina +135
Saints -290

those are bets week 1

 

[emkee]

Faves won straight-up at a 67% clip last season but only covered 47% of the time (based on closing line).

 

[emkee]

Faves of 7 or more won straight-up at an 82% clip (covered at around 52%).

Faves of less than 7 won straight-up at a 60% clip (covered at around 45%).

 

[Alan Tongue]

Faves won straight-up at a 67% clip last season but only covered 47% of the time (based on closing line).

267 games. 1 outlay to win on every favourite returned 250.14 at Pin close, or 262.84 at Pin top price. Outlaying 1 unit at -105 on 267 games returns 254.18

 

[2daBank]

Faves won straight-up at a 67% clip last season but only covered 47% of the time (based on closing line).

That’s interesting since seems like I hear all the time favs who win cover at a huge clip.

 

[austinhous]

That’s interesting since seems like I hear all the time favs who win cover at a huge clip.

yes. faves covered 73% of the games they won last season :shake:

 

[wizardofodd]

Past few years that I've tracked this, on average, the line comes into play about 18% of games
If the favs wins, they cover the spread
If the dog covers, they usually win SU

 

[RetroVK]

Past few years that I've tracked this, on average, the line comes into play about 18% of games
If the favs wins, they cover the spread
If the dog covers, they usually win SU

Under this premise faves ats and dogs ml

 

[dopples]

denver ML -160

 

[wizardofodd]

ravens -280 covered
kc -185 covered
clev -230 lost SU
carolina +135 lost SU/no cover
Saints -290 pending
Denver -160 pending


But we have so far 3 games where the spread has mattered, so 21% so far with 2 games pending.

Good luck tonight

 

[dopples]

9 pleaser sides hit

 

[GWarner27]

Past few years that I've tracked this, on average, the line comes into play about 18% of games
If the favs wins, they cover the spread
If the dog covers, they usually win SU

i think this is mainly true because of the short lines in this sport and how hard it is to win and not cover -3 or below. Wonder if that is any different than other sports with single-point (run, goal, etc) scoring

 

[wizardofodd]

i think this is mainly true because of the short lines in this sport and how hard it is to win and not cover -3 or below. Wonder if that is any different than other sports with single-point (run, goal, etc) scoring

I did small sample of college football, no where near NFL numbers.

I've seen one similar for baseball RL's. You either take the dog Alt RL or the Fav RL. I just dont have the time anymore to do it.

 

[GWarner27]

so many games end by 1 in MLB i couldn't do it

 

[emkee]

Favs went 10-4-1 SU (6-8-1 ATS) in Week 1.

4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) for favs of 7+, 5-4-1 SU (4-5-1 ATS) for favs of 6 or less.

 

[dopples]

-1.9 units


panthers -290
bills -120
ravens -660
dallas -220
houston -450
pitt -190
cincy -120

 

[GWarner27]

lotta room for JAX to cover, but i'm surprised that number is so big

 

[dopples]

-3.90 units

steelers game made me sad

 

[B.A.R.]

Did we continue this in Week 3?

 

[dopples]

nfl too random for me this season im turned off even if every game i liked last week won moneyline wise it is a shitty product dude

 

[B.A.R.]

I know it's shitty. I just hadn't seen an update... I didn't know if this was part of your "team" selections

 

[B.A.R.]

I was surprised you guys offered this elsewhere. View attachment 43175

 

[B.A.R.]

Lol posted Cowboys 250 to win 10 bucks on another forum. C'mon.

 

[emkee]

Favs 31-15-1 SU (20-25-2 ATS) through 3 weeks.