Championship Weekend

[Capaholic]

3-1 Last week, thanks for playing Minnesota.

Ok.. Ready for incoming fire.

There is nothing I could possibly take away from what the Titans did the last two weeks except point out some of the overlooked aspects of the two wins:

1) Everyone on this Board said the Patriots weren't good. Titans ran the shit out of the ball all night and scored two offensive scores. They punted 6 times and the Patriots inept offense repeatedly shot themselves in the dick including on a 1st and goal from the 1 yard line. Yet with all of the domination I heard about from the Titans, the Patriots outgained them for the game and had the ball at midfield needing only a FG to win. Unfortunately for New England, they suck and that was a mountain too tall to climb. And even with the masterful clock work by Vrabel and the ground game domination, "keeping the Pats on the sidelines", they won the time of possession by less than 3 minutes.

2) Tennessee came to play last week. had a plan and executed as best they could given they were playing a far superior team. Once again, we heard about the offensive ball control of the Titans and keeping teams off the field. They lost the time of possession. They punted 6 more times. The Ravens had 29 first downs to the Titans 15. Only 6 were in "garbage time". And the Ravens had the following drives and this is where they ended them:

Tennessee 36
Tennessee 31
Tennessee 4
Tennessee 18
Tennessee 31
Tennessee 15
Tennessee 16
Tennessee 21

They were in Tennessee territory 8 times. Kicked 2 FGs, scored a TD, threw 2 picks, and turned it over on downs 3 times. They gained 530 yards. 119 of them in a two score game in the final 6 minutes. Hardly garbage time, but take them out and they still outgained the shit out of Tennessee.

If you do in fact think these things will happen again and that KC will turn the ball over, will not finish drives with a quarterback who isn't afraid to play from behind, then by all means. Take the Titans ML and go for it.

Derrick Henry? Beast. Not sure why his numbers were so poor for the first ten weeks, but that's not what matters lately. What matters to me is he has had 96 carries in the last 3 games. Larry Johnson set an all time record for rushing attempts in a season in 2006. In no 3 game stretch did he have 96 carries. Further, I can't find anyone in recent memory to have a stretch like that. Maybe the SDQL folks can assist. I do not care that he had Week 16 off. It would be NFL history for someone to still have a full gas tank going into this game and these elements.

The elements? Tennessee's coldest game this year was 41 degrees. Sunday will be a high of 22 with the wind chill being 10 at kickoff. I cannot find a colder game that Ryan Tannehill will ever have played in either but I am not 100% positive. The Titans haven't kicked a field goal since it was still Autumn. Let's see how that goes in the weather as well.

Strategy? No shit. Gotta stack the box much like the Pats did to the Rams last year. This also prevented playaction from being effective also. If the Chiefs can force Tannehill to strictly be a drop back passer, it will not be good for the Titans, as the Ravens learned about themselves this week.

Chiefs? 100% healthy on offense. Defensively, Chris Jones, if absent will certainly hurt. But he is not in there for the run. Mike Pennel will have to fill that load like he did this week. They limited Carlos Hyde to under 60 yards and put pressure on Watson the majority of the day.

I have a coaching background. It's a little easier for me to diagnose Tennessee's weakness and how to exploit them than it is for me to expose our own weaknesses. So I defer to any of the Titan boys or backers to chime in with their thoughts on how they attack KC


As you have heard a million times, we bet numbers. I do not think there is value in laying 7.5 with KC. It's pointless. There are 7's out there and I would take those. I am also going to be on under Derrick Henry yards, and some Chiefs offensive props.

Chiefs -7 (-113)


Game 2, I am not putting for the same effort in writing. The more I look at it, I am having a hard time with this one despite SF's dominance last time out. For now, I am on the over

GB/SF over 46


GL.. Call me a homer.. Whatever. I would take the Titans at 7.5, so there's that at least.

 

[B.A.R.]

I was looking for a bit more analysis myself.

 

[B.A.R.]

Diving into boxscores/stats is so valuable in my opinion. Good work. I was saying this off-site the other day...this is a monumental day for the franchise. I think everyone this year expected them to have the New England and/or Baltimore hurdle to get through this year. That is not the case... I think it is finally time for you all. This feels like a second half pull away...

 

[twinkie13]

I was looking for a bit more analysis myself.

Lol

 

[ScopeY]

Full disclosure, idk what side im taking yet, as I need to look more into individual matchups then I have so far, but just to play devil's advocate in some areas.

Baltys best starting field position in that game was their own 26 yard line... once, out of 11 drives (average starting field position was their own 20 yard line). Tennys average was their own 34 yard line. On tenny's 4 td drives, they averaged less than 2 and a half minutes per drive. I can see why the time of possession was like that. They also were nearly identical in the yards per play category, and without researching it further, I'll guess titans were winning the battle handily before "garbage time"

I stopped counting after it achieved 28-6, but Tannehill had the ball in his hands on 3rd down 7 times, and converted on 4 of them... 2 of the 3 non-conversions were 3rd and extra long (12 and 14 Yards out). They haven't needed to throw the ball, but when he has, he's been fine, kind of hate the hate. I also would like to say that I know the pats offense was inept, but their secondary was the best in the league, right? (I do think chiefs do a good job with leads to create disruption on passing downs, and force bad situations/turnovers).

Also, holding carlos hyde to under 60 yards I don't think is a major success, I think his average for the year may have been 60 yards/g..... but I guess if everyone believes the chiefs kryptonite is the run defense, it could be seen as an accomplishment. But the only reason why they continue to mask it to an extent is because they do get leads on people forcing those teams to abandon the run. Hyde had 2 carries in the second half (and 1 catch).... barring injury, henry will crush that number.

And lets not forget this guy is a men amongst boys, and people have been waiting for him to shine since he was drafted (me included), and he finally did middle/late last year. I also don't know when the last time he practiced during the week was. (Purely off memory, I know in one of my year long fantasy leagues, he was consistently sidelined all week for a stretch of time). I don't think the carries are an issue for him (right now).

Again, this was in no way, shape, or form an argument, merely a discussion.

I know Hill has a sexy WR/CB Matchup (again... please work), and Kelce should thrive, tenny has given big games to TEs all year (I think in my last weeks thread they were 7th worst (or best? however you see it) at giving up FPPG to TE's..... Balty TEs had 8 catches on 15 targets...) Kelce will convert more of those, plus there are so many other threats.....

 

[Capaholic]

Full disclosure, idk what side im taking yet, as I need to look more into individual matchups then I have so far, but just to play devil's advocate in some areas.

Baltys best starting field position in that game was their own 26 yard line... once, out of 11 drives (average starting field position was their own 20 yard line). Tennys average was their own 34 yard line. On tenny's 4 td drives, they averaged less than 2 and a half minutes per drive. I can see why the time of possession was like that. They also were nearly identical in the yards per play category, and without researching it further, I'll guess titans were winning the battle handily before "garbage time"

I stopped counting after it achieved 28-6, but Tannehill had the ball in his hands on 3rd down 7 times, and converted on 4 of them... 2 of the 3 non-conversions were 3rd and extra long (12 and 14 Yards out). They haven't needed to throw the ball, but when he has, he's been fine, kind of hate the hate. I also would like to say that I know the pats offense was inept, but their secondary was the best in the league, right? (I do think chiefs do a good job with leads to create disruption on passing downs, and force bad situations/turnovers).

Also, holding carlos hyde to under 60 yards I don't think is a major success, I think his average for the year may have been 60 yards/g..... but I guess if everyone believes the chiefs kryptonite is the run defense, it could be seen as an accomplishment. But the only reason why they continue to mask it to an extent is because they do get leads on people forcing those teams to abandon the run. Hyde had 2 carries in the second half (and 1 catch).... barring injury, henry will crush that number.

And lets not forget this guy is a men amongst boys, and people have been waiting for him to shine since he was drafted (me included), and he finally did middle/late last year. I also don't know when the last time he practiced during the week was. (Purely off memory, I know in one of my year long fantasy leagues, he was consistently sidelined all week for a stretch of time). I don't think the carries are an issue for him (right now).

Again, this was in no way, shape, or form an argument, merely a discussion.

I know Hill has a sexy WR/CB Matchup (again... please work), and Kelce should thrive, tenny has given big games to TEs all year (I think in my last weeks thread they were 7th worst (or best? however you see it) at giving up FPPG to TE's..... Balty TEs had 8 catches on 15 targets...) Kelce will convert more of those, plus there are so many other threats.....

Great stuff. No need to preface it with anything. I have a horse in the race but the group is trying to win here.

The success against Hyde was more mentioned because the first time they played, KC couldn’t stop me and you from running for a first down.

 

[wiseplayer]

Call me a homer.. Whatever. I would take the Titans at 7.5, so there's that at least.
[/QUOTE]
After seeing this twice now, can you explain how you would take KC -7 but would take Titans at +7.5? I think you're a great capper but this confuses me.

 

[Capaholic]

I guess my phrasing is poor.

to me, 7 is beneficial to you if:

a) you like the dog and it’s been 6.5
b) you’re not overly sold on a game and want to take it.

I am confident that the Chiefs if they win would win by a TD. I am not supremely confident that they would win by any more than that . Thus I would not take KC at 7.5. But given that number, I’d lean towards the odds of it being a TD game again and take Tennessee. At 6.5 I’d for certain take KC.

so given how I see the game playing out I have two options obviously at 7. The one I think has a slightly better chance of occurring at this number is KC winning by 8 or more vs Tennessee losing by 6 or less.

it’s a small play. And my numbers suggest a push. But gun to my head, I would take KC at this number EVEN THOUGH I like Tennessee at 7.5 and KC at 6.5. Just percentage play.

I hope in some small way this makes sense.

 

[Hulu]

The more I think about it, the more I see it the same way. We all knew it was not the usual pats team and their offense was well below average down the stretch. And Baltimore looked like a first time playoff team last week. KC will be far and away the toughest test for Tenn thus far. I know the Titans are playing out of their minds but this train has to run out of steam at some point. They are on their 4th consecutive roadie, Henry has had 30 carries for 3 straight games...I heard today that's only the second time in history for a back to have that. The spot just screams Chiefs. Line should probably be closer to 9.5.

 

[ProV1Colt]

Defending KC.
This is me....

I would bracket Kelce & Hill. Play straight up on 11 & 17.
Try to defend the run as best you can with 4.
So what’s that leave.....
Mahomes running the ball all day.

Titans don’t have the speed to stick 11 & 17.
And that don’t have that Elite Pass Rusher to Spy or get to Mahomes.

I think the Titans have to win another shootout. But doing that twice against a team that can do it Week in and week out. I don’t think it’s gonna happen.

KC has too many pieces on the board hard to defend.

Like I said earlier. I’m gonna take the Over sit back and watch Power Vs Speed. I think we will be entertained

On the running #’s it’s been done before we just haven’t seen it in awhile.

From what I heard on the radio this was all yards. I don’t think it was attempts. And Age was factored in as well.

I believe John Riggins, Marcus Allen, Terrell Davis, Thurman Thomas, Dickerson and Natrone Means were in the list for playoffs yardage. Henry is on this list.

I would have to dig deeper on the rank and but the attempts I would like to know.

I was at the 2006 Wild Card Game In Indy and I have to admit I thought Larry Johnson was gonna Knock Peyton our that year.
Colts ended up beating KC , went to Balt and won kicking FGs, came back home and beat Brady & Hoody with Peyton’s “Drive” then Marlin Jackson sealed it with a INT of Brady, then beat Da Bears in a Miami Monsoon for Peyton’s 1st Super Bowl.

 

[ProV1Colt]

Cap.

Has Mahomes been pressured in ANY KC games?
Kinda like a Defense would have to get in Brady or Manning’s face.
I know Mahomes can escape. But has any team had a gameplan that just got in his face?

I remember back in Nov all those KC OL that went down but came back in.
I’m just thinking how can you get to Mahomes and make him uncomfortable.

I love Mahomes. I am a big fan. I just hate we gotta gave him as he is on this hot streak.
He’s like a shooter that’s on fire. Gotta find a way to get in his face w/out getting beat 1on 1 with all the speed on the outside.
Having 2 Guys that are basically Hot Route runners is scary. I just can’t remember off the top of my head who got to Mahomes

I guess why we are on it. How would you try to stop KC?
I have a feeling you are kinda like me and you know your own teams weaknesses and have an idea how you would attack or defend.

 

[Capaholic]

Cap.

Has Mahomes been pressured in ANY KC games?
Kinda like a Defense would have to get in Brady or Manning’s face.
I know Mahomes can escape. But has any team had a gameplan that just got in his face?

I remember back in Nov all those KC OL that went down but came back in.
I’m just thinking how can you get to Mahomes and make him uncomfortable.

I love Mahomes. I am a big fan. I just hate we gotta gave him as he is on this hot streak.
He’s like a shooter that’s on fire. Gotta find a way to get in his face w/out getting beat 1on 1 with all the speed on the outside.
Having 2 Guys that are basically Hot Route runners is scary. I just can’t remember off the top of my head who got to Mahomes

I guess why we are on it. How would you try to stop KC?
I have a feeling you are kinda like me and you know your own teams weaknesses and have an idea how you would attack or defend.

The only teams that have stopped Mahomes (when healthy) are those (and this is mostly just New England) that employed the "Zero" coverage, brought heat and played man on the outside. Even with that, it's only stopped him for a half here and there. The biggest adjustment Mahomes has made in season two (again, when healthy) is that he will tuck and run way more than he ever did before rather than make the hero pass. So even if you bring the heat, he's either going to look for something over the middle, or he's going to roll out and try to quickly get to the sideline..

But to answer your question, nobody really has gotten to him consistently. The Chargers do a nice job always but even they weren't able to get consistent stops. I don't really think you can stop KC for an entire game if nobody is hurt. I think a team needs to hope for self inflicted wounds like the first quarter last week and then roll from there.

 

[ProV1Colt]

The only teams that have stopped Mahomes (when healthy) are those (and this is mostly just New England) that employed the "Zero" coverage, brought heat and played man on the outside. Even with that, it's only stopped him for a half here and there. The biggest adjustment Mahomes has made in season two (again, when healthy) is that he will tuck and run way more than he ever did before rather than make the hero pass. So even if you bring the heat, he's either going to look for something over the middle, or he's going to roll out and try to quickly get to the sideline..

But to answer your question, nobody really has gotten to him consistently. The Chargers do a nice job always but even they weren't able to get consistent stops. I don't really think you can stop KC for an entire game if nobody is hurt. I think a team needs to hope for self inflicted wounds like the first quarter last week and then roll from there.

Yea that’s the way I’ve been thinking.
You have to have 2 lockdown corners that are physical and someone that is fast enough to spy him.
But he is so good at rolling out and buying time a WR is gonna come open or the defense will hold the WR on the comeback or take off deep. It’s tough to defend

And when he does take off and run you can tell he knows when to go down (his baseball background) he is a very good slider. And he likes to dance/ tiptoe for an extra yard then get OB.

 

[wizardofodd]

I don’t think the 7 or 7.5 matter here with titans kicking issues. They could just point Henry for 2 point conversions every time. If they miss one, you know damn well they going for it again

 

[bones]

I don’t think the 7 or 7.5 matter here with titans kicking issues. They could just point Henry for 2 point conversions every time. If they miss one, you know damn well they going for it again

very good

 

[Jm8122]

Nicely done congrats to your Chiefs sir! Made me some today thanks

 

[ProV1Colt]

Congrats Cap!
Now get warm

 

[Capaholic]

Other than my wedding day which i will keep at #1, this was the best day ever. Cried like a baby the final minute and I was not the only one. You all with teams who have won before, it’s good to understand the feeling now. And to those still chasing it, it’s worth the wait. Whether or not they win in two weeks, they can’t take that one away from the 65,000+ who were there the day we brought the Hunt trophy home.

 

[hubs89]

So awesome Cap! As a Vikes fan I hope my day comes as well

 

[guaranteeed]

Other than my wedding day which i will keep at #1, this was the best day ever. Cried like a baby the final minute and I was not the only one. You all with teams who have won before, it’s good to understand the feeling now. And to those still chasing it, it’s worth the wait. Whether or not they win in two weeks, they can’t take that one away from the 65,000+ who were there the day we brought the Hunt trophy home.

Sounds great man

Are you heading down to miami for the big one?

I imagine its gonna be little Missouri down there as I got a feeling theres gonna be a ton of chiefs fans, against either side I think they get the most travelling fans