Well, it has been a bit since I have penned up a thread but I'm feeling pretty solid tonight, so here goes...
First of all, the discussion in the respective threads for this weekend's games has been excellent. A few lurkers have commented to myself off-site how much they have enjoyed the different perspectives all week long. Kudos to all. Also, before we go any further, the only pending bet I have in the NFL right now is my San Francisco future that we bet on Valentine's Day of 2022. Overall, I am not proud of my futures portfolio this year, but we can still make some hay. This isn't going to be the magical 50-1 on Tampa, but we can clear around 15 units here overall if the Niners win out.
I want to first look at the Philadelphia Eagles...
This has been a tremendous season for the Eagles and they deserve every accolade they get. The bottom line is, they were the top team in the NFC all season. When they beat the Jaguars to move to 4-0 I was capping their schedule and was hoping to find a 11.5 or 12 for an in-season RSW. I really like the over. The best I found was 12.5 and I sat on it. I stayed within my parameters but wish I hadn't. So, I saw it with this team, but also with a schedule that wasn't exactly daunting. So, let us look at their schedule since the 4-0 getaway and examine things a bit...
I posted this somewhere the other day but will again. Let's concentrate on the games up until the Bears game where Jalen got banged up a bit...
The road game at Arizona was a bit of a struggle in the fact they only scored 20. They won it with a long drive near the end of the 4th and a GW field goal from Dicker the kicker. I have no issue here with a solid road win. Arizona wasn't all-together bad at this point either.
The next game was a win versus the Cooper Rush Cowboys. Philly didn't touch 300 yards in this game and scored 20 of their 26 points in the 2nd quarter. Again, at this point in the season, the Cowboys were playing very good defense.
They blew out the Steelers after the bye week. I appreciated this as I had good size bets on -10 and -9.5. This made for a fun Sunday in Vegas. Pickett was still learning his way at this point, although Pitt did generate 21 first downs. Good win, the offense was explosive.
Short turnaround to a Thursday night affair in Houston. This one was tied at halftime before Philly pulled away in the second half. I'll never fault a sleepy game on a Thursday night.
Washington came to town for MNF and this was the game the Skins just controlled the ball for an insane amount of time. DC held the ball for over 40 minutes and Philly scored 14 quick but then just didn't have the ball. With lack of possession, only 260 yards were accumulated. We've seen this game referenced for this coming week, as a way for SF to maybe control the game.
They seemed to be hungover a bit from that game heading into Indianapolis. This was an absolute struggle for the Eagles, trailing 13-3 starting the 4th. This is where you credit them for winning a road game that they maybe shouldn't have. Still, they barely broke 300 yards versus a bad team.
Sunday nighter at home versus the Packers was next up... This was impressive. You rarely see a team in the NFL rush for 350+ yards, but they did. Now, as good as they were, let's remember that this was the bottoming out point for the Packers. Aaron got hurt, Love led them back a bit, and afterwards Rodgers was contemplating shutting it down once mathematically eliminated. My point here, this wasn't the Packers team of the last 6-7 weeks of play. Still, this was a gem on offense.
The Titans game, aka the AJ Brown game, was another offensive show. This was different though. The Eagles rushed for 67 total yards, while Hurts had likely his best passing game of his pro career. They torched Tennessee early and often. At this point, you are thinking, pick your poison?
Philly rolled into The Meadowlands the week after and again crushed an opponent. A great effort with over 400 yards of offense, including over 250 on the ground. Everything is clicking on offense at this point...
The last one to look at here was on a very cold day in Chicago. This wasn't as high scoring as the previous 3 games, but they managed over 400 yards again and Hurts was excellent through the air.
With Minshew at QB and the regular season finale being against a resting NYG team, we don't need to look at anything else here. I want to encapsulate the bulk of their season and see if we can find anything....
So, how many playoff teams did Philadelphia play during that stretch?
TWO
One was Dallas, without their starting QB.
The other was the NY Giants.
Let's pause here and look at the NY Giants for a minute...
The Giants had a very nice season, aided by a hot start, and their last high note was drawing one of the worst double-digit division winners in NFL history -- Minnesota Vikings.
The last playoff team that New York defeated was Jacksonville in WEEK SEVEN. Let us add context here -- the Jags were slumping big-time during this period.
Yes, they beat Washington on a controversial SNF game and tied them down the stretch. Overall, though, this Giants team was less than impressive the last few months. Many forgot about this as they looked like the 2000 St Louis Rams in the WC game in Minnesota.
So, we've heard a lot of talk the last several weeks about the lack of opposition San Francisco has faced since the Kansas City game (their last loss). This is all very true. For some reason, you here very little about this schedule the Eagles have played. Now, a schedule is what it is, but what I want to figure out here is how TRULY challenged have the Eagles been?
The other aspect here, we have seen Jalen for two games versus the Giants since the injury. The rhythm was off a bit in the season finale. He was cautious in the divisional round but seemingly got more comfortable as the game went this past Saturday. He was excellent, and that is good news. He really hit his peak in that 4-game stretch before Christmas. We know he can run, but the passing game was growing more and more. I would think he will be more comfortable running this week after some success last week.
Back to competition....
The Eagles are a damn good team. They run the ball, they sack the QB and they have some excellent skill position guys. They have won gutty games on the road when struggling for 2-3 quarters. They have dominated teams at home both via the pass and the run. You could say they have won games in most ways possible this year. I just go back to the competition. They have not played a team like San Francisco in forever. This could be a bit of a punch in the mouth. Now, maybe they are just so good that will not matter? Just something to think about (and you can go through the SF schedule and do a lot of the same). Looking back at last week, SF got hit in the mouth a bit versus a solid defense. The Eagles played an overmatched team. The good thing is, if Philly is your SB champs, they will absolutely earn it versus the rest of the remaining teams.
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Let's talk some Brock Party...
He had a lot of pressure last week and kept a clean sheet. I was surprised, I expected a turnover. He made some big throws when they were needed and managed two great drives in the 2nd half, even with his star RB nursing an injury here and there. Bottom line is the kid wins. Now, he steps into a very tough environment. Will he get rattled? I know many are counting on it. I do not know myself, but I do think we get that turnover this week.
As far as the Niners go -- hopefully Kyle has a better gameplan on offense this week. He wasted 2+ quarters before going back to the ole bread n butter. They also better scheme up some good protections as Dallas was getting a lot of pressure in the first half. Again, too many drop-backs made that possible as well.
This is such a tough cap... do we get that Philly offense that was humming before the injury? Do we see their running game get stuffed like only a few teams did this year? This one is truly a coach's game in my opinion.
Now, back to that MNF game Philly vs DC. That would be the ultimate goal for the Niners -- a healthy time of possession lead.
Fascinating game. I'm obviously rooting for the future play but looking at independent wagers as well.
Hopefully this is good food for thought as you all cap into the weekend.
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We get a rematch in the AFC, in a classic venue with teams that will now be meeting for the 4th time in just over a year. Yes, there is familiarity with these teams...
Box score time from this season's matchup...
I watched this game mostly in full, but looking back at things the first thing that stands out is how well each team ran the ball...
KC -138
Cincy -152
This was a Perine game as he accumulated 106 on 21 carries.
The man himself, Joey B carried 11 times for 46 yards.
Pacheco and McKinnon both had over 50 yards rushing for the Chiefs.
Mahomes only carried twice for 9 yards total.
The one thing I remember about this game the most was the very LOW possession 1st half. The Chiefs second possession wasn't until the 2nd quarter. I had some sort of overs here, as I know I was getting ticked about time consuming drives. The Bengals led 14-3 early 2nd quarter on two highly productive long TD drives. They also had a 3rd long drive before halftime that resulted in a SOD's at the KC 4. Overall, the Bengals played a helluva 1h on offense.
The 3rd saw this game get much more explosive with 4 different scoring drives starting within the quarter, The Chiefs finally had some rhythm and took a 7 point lead. Kelce had the big fumble which would lead to the GW touchdown. We know the Chiefs missed the tying FG as well. Cincy did a great job killing off the last 3-4 minutes to secure the win.
The difference in this game was the Cincy passing game was far superior. Add in a turnover and missed FG and you get a Bengals win.
So, what has changed since then? Well, venue. The Bengals have a different OL due to injuries. Mixon will play this time around as well. Mahomes is a bit gimpy.
So, my main things to look at here are these...
-How will KC attack the Cincy OL? You cannot just rush 4 and let Joe pick you apart. I expect timely blitzing here. We'll see a lot of Jones and Clark in the backfield.
-How will Cincy attack Mahomes? He will be less than 100%. How do they make him uncomfortable?
I think these two teams are extremely even when healthy. This game will come down to who makes less mistakes. Mahomes could write the storybook or Joey B creates another chapter in our modern-day Montana. Aside from wagers, try and really enjoy this game. We'll all look back years from now and realize how great these matchups really are between these QB's.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One last note -- props
There will be a ridiculous offering on the plate this weekend. Remember this week and in two weeks, these really tend to be slanted towards overs. I see guys get frustrated after a few quarters of average offense and all their props going up in flames. Be smart, just because there is only two games doesn't mean you have to go hog nuts wild on props. With that being said, this site has some of the BEST prop players I've seen. Read their thoughts and make smart decisions.
The price on Brock INT is a bit hefty this week to the YES. I laid off last week, luckily and will again this week most likely.
He has been kind of quiet lately and in the 1st game, but pure hunch we see a big game from Tee Higgins this week. That is one I am shopping.
I rarely do KC props due to the ever-evolving nature of who will get the ball. Kelce can be an exception and if you find a low Pachecho number again, hit it over.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hopefully, if you made it this far, your eyes are not bleeding.
I think we have an epic Sunday, looking forward to it...
First of all, the discussion in the respective threads for this weekend's games has been excellent. A few lurkers have commented to myself off-site how much they have enjoyed the different perspectives all week long. Kudos to all. Also, before we go any further, the only pending bet I have in the NFL right now is my San Francisco future that we bet on Valentine's Day of 2022. Overall, I am not proud of my futures portfolio this year, but we can still make some hay. This isn't going to be the magical 50-1 on Tampa, but we can clear around 15 units here overall if the Niners win out.
I want to first look at the Philadelphia Eagles...
This has been a tremendous season for the Eagles and they deserve every accolade they get. The bottom line is, they were the top team in the NFC all season. When they beat the Jaguars to move to 4-0 I was capping their schedule and was hoping to find a 11.5 or 12 for an in-season RSW. I really like the over. The best I found was 12.5 and I sat on it. I stayed within my parameters but wish I hadn't. So, I saw it with this team, but also with a schedule that wasn't exactly daunting. So, let us look at their schedule since the 4-0 getaway and examine things a bit...
I posted this somewhere the other day but will again. Let's concentrate on the games up until the Bears game where Jalen got banged up a bit...
| 5 | Sun, Oct 9 | @ Arizona | W20-17 | 5-0 | Hurts 239 | Hurts 61 | Goedert 95 |
| 6 | Sun, Oct 16 | vs Dallas | W26-17 | 6-0 | Hurts 155 | Sanders 71 | Brown 67 |
| 7 | BYE WEEK | ||||||
| 8 | Sun, Oct 30 | vs Pittsburgh | W35-13 | 7-0 | Hurts 285 | Sanders 78 | Brown 156 |
| 9 | Thu, Nov 3 | @ Houston | W29-17 | 8-0 | Hurts 243 | Sanders 93 | Goedert 100 |
| 10 | Mon, Nov 14 | vs Washington | L32-21 | 8-1 | Hurts 175 | Sanders 54 | Watkins 80 |
| 11 | Sun, Nov 20 | @ Indianapolis | W17-16 | 9-1 | Hurts 190 | Hurts 86 | Smith 78 |
| 12 | Sun, Nov 27 | vs Green Bay | W40-33 | 10-1 | Hurts 153 | Hurts 157 | Smith 50 |
| 13 | Sun, Dec 4 | vs Tennessee | W35-10 | 11-1 | Hurts 380 | Sanders 24 | Brown 119 |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 11 | @ New York | W48-22 | 12-1 | Hurts 217 | Sanders 144 | Brown 70 |
| 15 | Sun, Dec 18 | @ Chicago | W25-20 | 13-1 | Hurts 315 | Hurts 61 | Brown 181 |
The road game at Arizona was a bit of a struggle in the fact they only scored 20. They won it with a long drive near the end of the 4th and a GW field goal from Dicker the kicker. I have no issue here with a solid road win. Arizona wasn't all-together bad at this point either.
The next game was a win versus the Cooper Rush Cowboys. Philly didn't touch 300 yards in this game and scored 20 of their 26 points in the 2nd quarter. Again, at this point in the season, the Cowboys were playing very good defense.
They blew out the Steelers after the bye week. I appreciated this as I had good size bets on -10 and -9.5. This made for a fun Sunday in Vegas. Pickett was still learning his way at this point, although Pitt did generate 21 first downs. Good win, the offense was explosive.
Short turnaround to a Thursday night affair in Houston. This one was tied at halftime before Philly pulled away in the second half. I'll never fault a sleepy game on a Thursday night.
Washington came to town for MNF and this was the game the Skins just controlled the ball for an insane amount of time. DC held the ball for over 40 minutes and Philly scored 14 quick but then just didn't have the ball. With lack of possession, only 260 yards were accumulated. We've seen this game referenced for this coming week, as a way for SF to maybe control the game.
They seemed to be hungover a bit from that game heading into Indianapolis. This was an absolute struggle for the Eagles, trailing 13-3 starting the 4th. This is where you credit them for winning a road game that they maybe shouldn't have. Still, they barely broke 300 yards versus a bad team.
Sunday nighter at home versus the Packers was next up... This was impressive. You rarely see a team in the NFL rush for 350+ yards, but they did. Now, as good as they were, let's remember that this was the bottoming out point for the Packers. Aaron got hurt, Love led them back a bit, and afterwards Rodgers was contemplating shutting it down once mathematically eliminated. My point here, this wasn't the Packers team of the last 6-7 weeks of play. Still, this was a gem on offense.
The Titans game, aka the AJ Brown game, was another offensive show. This was different though. The Eagles rushed for 67 total yards, while Hurts had likely his best passing game of his pro career. They torched Tennessee early and often. At this point, you are thinking, pick your poison?
Philly rolled into The Meadowlands the week after and again crushed an opponent. A great effort with over 400 yards of offense, including over 250 on the ground. Everything is clicking on offense at this point...
The last one to look at here was on a very cold day in Chicago. This wasn't as high scoring as the previous 3 games, but they managed over 400 yards again and Hurts was excellent through the air.
With Minshew at QB and the regular season finale being against a resting NYG team, we don't need to look at anything else here. I want to encapsulate the bulk of their season and see if we can find anything....
So, how many playoff teams did Philadelphia play during that stretch?
TWO
One was Dallas, without their starting QB.
The other was the NY Giants.
Let's pause here and look at the NY Giants for a minute...
The Giants had a very nice season, aided by a hot start, and their last high note was drawing one of the worst double-digit division winners in NFL history -- Minnesota Vikings.
The last playoff team that New York defeated was Jacksonville in WEEK SEVEN. Let us add context here -- the Jags were slumping big-time during this period.
Yes, they beat Washington on a controversial SNF game and tied them down the stretch. Overall, though, this Giants team was less than impressive the last few months. Many forgot about this as they looked like the 2000 St Louis Rams in the WC game in Minnesota.
So, we've heard a lot of talk the last several weeks about the lack of opposition San Francisco has faced since the Kansas City game (their last loss). This is all very true. For some reason, you here very little about this schedule the Eagles have played. Now, a schedule is what it is, but what I want to figure out here is how TRULY challenged have the Eagles been?
The other aspect here, we have seen Jalen for two games versus the Giants since the injury. The rhythm was off a bit in the season finale. He was cautious in the divisional round but seemingly got more comfortable as the game went this past Saturday. He was excellent, and that is good news. He really hit his peak in that 4-game stretch before Christmas. We know he can run, but the passing game was growing more and more. I would think he will be more comfortable running this week after some success last week.
Back to competition....
The Eagles are a damn good team. They run the ball, they sack the QB and they have some excellent skill position guys. They have won gutty games on the road when struggling for 2-3 quarters. They have dominated teams at home both via the pass and the run. You could say they have won games in most ways possible this year. I just go back to the competition. They have not played a team like San Francisco in forever. This could be a bit of a punch in the mouth. Now, maybe they are just so good that will not matter? Just something to think about (and you can go through the SF schedule and do a lot of the same). Looking back at last week, SF got hit in the mouth a bit versus a solid defense. The Eagles played an overmatched team. The good thing is, if Philly is your SB champs, they will absolutely earn it versus the rest of the remaining teams.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let's talk some Brock Party...
He had a lot of pressure last week and kept a clean sheet. I was surprised, I expected a turnover. He made some big throws when they were needed and managed two great drives in the 2nd half, even with his star RB nursing an injury here and there. Bottom line is the kid wins. Now, he steps into a very tough environment. Will he get rattled? I know many are counting on it. I do not know myself, but I do think we get that turnover this week.
As far as the Niners go -- hopefully Kyle has a better gameplan on offense this week. He wasted 2+ quarters before going back to the ole bread n butter. They also better scheme up some good protections as Dallas was getting a lot of pressure in the first half. Again, too many drop-backs made that possible as well.
This is such a tough cap... do we get that Philly offense that was humming before the injury? Do we see their running game get stuffed like only a few teams did this year? This one is truly a coach's game in my opinion.
Now, back to that MNF game Philly vs DC. That would be the ultimate goal for the Niners -- a healthy time of possession lead.
Fascinating game. I'm obviously rooting for the future play but looking at independent wagers as well.
Hopefully this is good food for thought as you all cap into the weekend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We get a rematch in the AFC, in a classic venue with teams that will now be meeting for the 4th time in just over a year. Yes, there is familiarity with these teams...
Box score time from this season's matchup...
I watched this game mostly in full, but looking back at things the first thing that stands out is how well each team ran the ball...
KC -138
Cincy -152
This was a Perine game as he accumulated 106 on 21 carries.
The man himself, Joey B carried 11 times for 46 yards.
Pacheco and McKinnon both had over 50 yards rushing for the Chiefs.
Mahomes only carried twice for 9 yards total.
The one thing I remember about this game the most was the very LOW possession 1st half. The Chiefs second possession wasn't until the 2nd quarter. I had some sort of overs here, as I know I was getting ticked about time consuming drives. The Bengals led 14-3 early 2nd quarter on two highly productive long TD drives. They also had a 3rd long drive before halftime that resulted in a SOD's at the KC 4. Overall, the Bengals played a helluva 1h on offense.
The 3rd saw this game get much more explosive with 4 different scoring drives starting within the quarter, The Chiefs finally had some rhythm and took a 7 point lead. Kelce had the big fumble which would lead to the GW touchdown. We know the Chiefs missed the tying FG as well. Cincy did a great job killing off the last 3-4 minutes to secure the win.
The difference in this game was the Cincy passing game was far superior. Add in a turnover and missed FG and you get a Bengals win.
So, what has changed since then? Well, venue. The Bengals have a different OL due to injuries. Mixon will play this time around as well. Mahomes is a bit gimpy.
So, my main things to look at here are these...
-How will KC attack the Cincy OL? You cannot just rush 4 and let Joe pick you apart. I expect timely blitzing here. We'll see a lot of Jones and Clark in the backfield.
-How will Cincy attack Mahomes? He will be less than 100%. How do they make him uncomfortable?
I think these two teams are extremely even when healthy. This game will come down to who makes less mistakes. Mahomes could write the storybook or Joey B creates another chapter in our modern-day Montana. Aside from wagers, try and really enjoy this game. We'll all look back years from now and realize how great these matchups really are between these QB's.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One last note -- props
There will be a ridiculous offering on the plate this weekend. Remember this week and in two weeks, these really tend to be slanted towards overs. I see guys get frustrated after a few quarters of average offense and all their props going up in flames. Be smart, just because there is only two games doesn't mean you have to go hog nuts wild on props. With that being said, this site has some of the BEST prop players I've seen. Read their thoughts and make smart decisions.
The price on Brock INT is a bit hefty this week to the YES. I laid off last week, luckily and will again this week most likely.
He has been kind of quiet lately and in the 1st game, but pure hunch we see a big game from Tee Higgins this week. That is one I am shopping.
I rarely do KC props due to the ever-evolving nature of who will get the ball. Kelce can be an exception and if you find a low Pachecho number again, hit it over.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hopefully, if you made it this far, your eyes are not bleeding.
I think we have an epic Sunday, looking forward to it...
