Championship Week writeups...kind of

[Br@ssknux]

First to recap: I played a ton of games last week and ended up 12-8. Got lucky on a couple for sure, had a couple pegged pretty good, but overall it was positive. The 12-8 week moves me to 35-23 over the 4 weeks I've come back to posting nonsense on here. (.6034).

I have to admit that I am not a fan at all of the card this week. I am typically a dog player, and I'm finding myself not quite comfortable enough to pull the trigger on almost all of them. I really only have one game that I've played so far and it's a popular side:


1. Central Michigan -6.5 v Miami(OH): McElwain's guys were my favorite play of the week last week and they came through with no problem. It was a somewhat rare circumstance where I loved one team and absolutely hated the spot for the other team in the same game, and it showed from jump street. Poor Toledo never had a chance. Whenever you have a major mismatch at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and cavernous difference in QB play, it's gonna be a long day. Miami is certainly better than Toledo on defense, but the Chips should be able to run on them, and I don't see how Miami is going to be able to score much, especially if CMU stacks the box and dares Miami QB Gabbert(I assume Blaine's bro?) to beat them. For the year Gabbert, is only completing 53% of his throws with a mediocre 10/8 ratio. He was 10/21 for 110 yards, 0 TD and 2 picks against AKRON for crying out loud two weeks ago, and the Redhawks couldn't crack 300 total yards against Ohio and Ball State(not defensive stalwarts) in earlier November games. CMU is on a nice run and McElwain knows what he's doing. Ultimately, if Miami gets lucky with a busted play or some turnovers they can hang around in this one, but if both teams (or even one of them) plays to their performance over the past few weeks, CMU should take this one by double digits.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Admittedly, the CMU game is the only game I've played so far and will almost surely be the only one I have a significant bet on this weekend. I'll have a few other small bets here and there but nothing significant. I'll be tied up most of today and tonight so I'll try to throw some thoughts in here on the rest (gun to my head scenarios) if anyone has interest.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff, I'm interested in it although I despise betting Mac games.

 

[Br@ssknux]

As for some of the other games, just some thoughts:

Pac 12: I have a very small bet on Utah -6. I don't play totals but if I did, I'd play the under, although I wouldn't take that advice because the reason I don't play totals is because I'm about 9-125 in my life. It's gotten to cosmic proportions actually. Ultimately I think Utah has a better chance to have success against the Oregon D than vice versa and it's a monumental in game coaching mismatch between Whittingham and Cristobal.

Big 12: Typically I would be all over Baylor at a price approaching double digits, but I think I'm going to stick with a 1-0 record in wagers between these two teams. Baylor is very consistent on both sides of the ball, and I love Matt Rhule, but even he is going to have a hard time dealing with the psychological disadvantage Baylor has to overcome after they were so thoroughly dominated in the last 40 or so minutes of that first game. The box score ended up being very ugly, with something like a 550-310 yard advantage for the Sooners. Sooners also get Lamb back, and I think people are underrating their defense. It's not great, but it's not as terrible as I hear people claim it is. So I lean Oklahoma, but I'm not about to lay 8-8.5 with Oklahoma given their track record in that role. Thus, no bet.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Sun Belt: I really like betting on both of these teams, but I had Appy State as about a 7 point favorite. La La is something like 0-7 all time in this series, so that's a huge hump to get over. If I think the likelihood of an outright is very small, I need more than 6 points to play the dog. Also, Appy State is better on the road, and La La can really run the ball so not interested in laying either.

CUSA: I like UAB and their ATS performance under Clark is about the best in the country, but I'm not betting against Kiffin and his squad here, even if he's "distracted" as they seem to just hammer teams like this. UAB has great numbers on the defensive side of the ball, enough to even make you think they can have their way with FAU, but to say the Blazers have played weak offenses is the understatement of the century. They've beaten nobody this year, and they've won 9 games. You can make a case that 6 of their 8 FBS wins are against teams in the bottom 10 in the country, and La Tech without their missing guys might in the mix for that too. For that reason, and because my numbers would usually make me heavy on FAU, I'm off this one.

American: I lean Memphis -9 because they are a much more complete team and because Cincy is going with the worst of their two QBs. I had Cincy about a 11-12 point fave, but since I think Fickell is no fool, the likelihood is decent that he switches to Bryant, at which point I'd fear a backdoor cover. I'll probably have a small play on Memphis if it stays at 9 or less.

 

[Br@ssknux]

MWC: Lean Boise -13 here because I can see a scenario where Hawaii doesn't force a punt all day, but Hawaii's offense is good enough to score on Boise, who's defense is below their normal standards. Even if you think back to Hawaii's game with Washington, even though they were thoroughly dominated, at one point in the 4th quarter the Rainbows were covering and the Huskies had to score a couple late TDs to get the money. I don't want any part of sweating that out, and I don't want to hoping for Hawaii to get a stop either.

SEC: Not laying with LSU because how stupid would I feel laying more than a TD against this Georgia team that has done nothing to indicate they are capable of being out of any game, especially one against a team that has a somewhat questionable run defense? Georgia does all the things that keep teams from losing a grip on the game: They run the ball well, they play great defense, especially on 3rd down, they almost never turn the ball over and they hardly ever get behind the sticks because they run it well and Fromm never takes a sack. Also, despite his bad completion numbers and pedestrian numbers overall, Fromm always seems to make plays in big games. I know about the injuries and suspensions, but the Watkins kid will be back in 2nd half, and I have a hard time believing there's no capable WRs on that Georgia roster somewhere. Having said all that, if you look at Georgia's schedule, there's not a whole lot of dynamic passing offenses on there. ND is probably the best pass offense they faced, and the Irish were seemingly concerned with proving they could hang in that game more than actually trying to push the ball downfield and win the game. I'll have a small play on Georgia +7.5 if I can get it at -115.

 

[Br@ssknux]

ACC: This is going to be a mismatch between the UVA OL and Clemson DL, and I'd be willing to bet that Clemson gets at least 1 defensive score while Bryce Perkins stands back there completely oblivious to the pass rush that will be all over him every time he drops back. UVa has been getting torched lately by bad offenses so Clemson will do more of the same. If I can get 28 I'll lay it, but I hate laying that many points because unless it's 56-0 the cover ends up being somewhat of a random occurance when the spread is that high.

Big Ten: I think Wisconsin looks much better than they did a month ago, but only a fool or someone who doesn't care about losing money would bet against OSU at this point.

 

[rambler882]

Appreciate the notes. See quite a bit the same.

 

[HUNT]

great stuff bro.

 

[Br@ssknux]

As for some of the other games, just some thoughts:

Pac 12: I have a very small bet on Utah -6. I don't play totals but if I did, I'd play the under, although I wouldn't take that advice because the reason I don't play totals is because I'm about 9-125 in my life. It's gotten to cosmic proportions actually. Ultimately I think Utah has a better chance to have success against the Oregon D than vice versa and it's a monumental in game coaching mismatch between Whittingham and Cristobal.

Big 12: Typically I would be all over Baylor at a price approaching double digits, but I think I'm going to stick with a 1-0 record in wagers between these two teams. Baylor is very consistent on both sides of the ball, and I love Matt Rhule, but even he is going to have a hard time dealing with the psychological disadvantage Baylor has to overcome after they were so thoroughly dominated in the last 40 or so minutes of that first game. The box score ended up being very ugly, with something like a 550-310 yard advantage for the Sooners. Sooners also get Lamb back, and I think people are underrating their defense. It's not great, but it's not as terrible as I hear people claim it is. So I lean Oklahoma, but I'm not about to lay 8-8.5 with Oklahoma given their track record in that role. Thus, no bet.

Nailed that one!!!!

 

[HUNT]

NO shame...Oregon brings that A game, they can compete and beat anyone.

 

[Br@ssknux]

great stuff bro.

Thanks Hunt.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Good stuff, I'm interested in it although I despise betting Mac games.

Thanks as always BAR