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Championship Week Writeups(kind of) and Hopefully Feedbck

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
A couple things I wanted to throw out there as we reach the end of the season.

First, a thought experiment, and I apologize if this has already been hashed and rehashed. The SEC Title game is a huge game. Like many other games throughout this week and last week, it serves as a sort of quarterfinal, or at the very least could be an elimination game. The PAC 12 title game is as well, and the Ohio State/Michigan game served as an elimination game last week because we only have 4 teams in the playoff.

Let's fast forward to next year and assume that next year's SEC title game is an exact replica of this year's. Same teams, same records. My question is, why would either of the teams involved want to play the game? They both would likely be locks to make a 12 team playoff win or lose. Wouldn't both teams likely be sitting guys?

I've always been a skeptic of expanding the playoff, mostly out of fear of unintended consequences. But taking a stance against an expanded playoff is a fool's errand because mob rule is always going to win out eventually. I also see a benefit in more teams being able to sell the possibility of making the playoff. In the 4 team format, if a kid was dead set on playing in the playoff, he would need to limit his choices to 4-5 teams. Now, there are many more teams that can sell the possibility. I think the 12 team format can be passable, but an offshoot of that is that the championship games are likely going to become a burden for teams tat don't need the additional data point to earn consideration for inclusion in the playoff.

Regarding FSU: From a handicapping point of view as well as fan excitement, I kind of hope the Seminoles lose. I'd rather not handicap a 14-16 point spread in the semis, and for pure entertainment value, it seems it would be best for FSU to not make the playoff with Tate Rademacher under center. However, that's what it SEEMS among people with subjective opinions. If FSU goes 13-0, anyone insistent that FSU doesn't stand a chance may think they have sound reasons for thinking so, but they really don't know. I hope the committee doesn't think they know better and deprive FSU a shot at a title because the QB got injured. What if the pundits are wrong? If I were on the committee, the risk of being wrong when I am convinced I can predict the future would lead to me voting for FSU to be in, even though we all think they aren't currently one of the top 10 teams, let alone top 4.

I have some opinion on all the games, but I'll only be playing a handful. Tight lines again this week. If there are any games anyone would like me to give my opinion on, I'll be glad to do it. I don't think I'm planning on doing anything significant with the Friday games, but I'll have some thoughts on a few of the games Saturday. I'll be tackling those starting tomorrow. Thanks as always for your feedback!

After a 6-10 week last week. 91-83 is the year long total. (.5229)



Texas -15 WIN
Alabama +5 WIN
Appy State +5.5 LOSS
SMU +3.5 WIN

3-1
 
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I was thinking of FSU and saw some chatter -- 2014 OSU was down to their 3rd string and backed into the playoffs. Now, different QBs but just some good for thought.
 
B.A.R. said:
I was thinking of FSU and saw some chatter -- 2014 OSU was down to their 3rd string and backed into the playoffs. Now, different QBs but just some good for thought.
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1998 FSU was down to its third QB and hung in there, but it's hard to say UT really earned that title.
 
B.A.R. said:
I was thinking of FSU and saw some chatter -- 2014 OSU was down to their 3rd string and backed into the playoffs. Now, different QBs but just some good for thought.
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That's true, but Cardale Jones looked so good in that Big Ten title game demolition of Wisconsin that it seemed like an upgrade over Braxton Miller or whoever it was.
 
Br@ssknux said:
That's true, but Cardale Jones looked so good in that Big Ten title game demolition of Wisconsin that it seemed like an upgrade over Braxton Miller or whoever it was.
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I think Braxton Miller went out in the 1st or 2nd game that year. So JT Barrett was the starter for most of the year. Cardale Jones was 3rd string to start the year, but after Miller went down, he was getting 2nd team reps for several weeks. Huge difference between 2nd team and 3rd team reps.
 
B.A.R. said:
Conference championship games need to be eliminated with the playoffs.
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I totally agree with this. Conference determines who their champion is. Most of the time without divisions you'll have a champ anyway. Big Ten, Pac 12, SEC, ACC and Big 12 all have clear cut champs this year anyway. If there's a tie, pick one. It'll probably be pretty clear cut, and if it's not both teams will make the 12 anyway. It would also clear up this week to get the playoffs going earlier.
 
20 team conferences are gonna suck big time. I kinda thought everyone would split from the NCAA in the next decade but now I'm leaning more towards it in the next 3-5 years. At some point the NCAA is going to get sick of all the legal fees when every university is suing them for multiple reasons.
 
The only counterpoint and probably because it touches home, is a situation like Tulane. A win Saturday and they would be in the playoff. And who knows what can happen, they knocked off USC last year. It’s ENORMOUS for a school like that.


Enjoy the thread as always, longtime fan as you know. I hope you post bowl season and GL the rest of the way!
 
twinkie13 said:
The only counterpoint and probably because it touches home, is a situation like Tulane. A win Saturday and they would be in the playoff. And who knows what can happen, they knocked off USC last year. It’s ENORMOUS for a school like that.


Enjoy the thread as always, longtime fan as you know. I hope you post bowl season and GL the rest of the way!
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In a perfect world for me the P5 and G5 teams will have separate tournaments similar to the FCS teams now. The 12 team tournament is likely going to have the same few teams every season which will get extremely boring. And when one of the blue bloods gets punted in the first round on say December 12th, how will that be not having one of the cash cows sitting on the sideline for most of December? Be curious to see if teams who lose early actually can be invited to another bowl game later in the month.
 
Pac 12 Title Game: Ultimately, although I have a small +10 bet on Washington, I just couldn't get to the point to where I could make a full throated recommendation on the Huskies. They are this much of an underdog frankly because the numbers indicate that they should be. This is especially true in the games they were favored(other than USC). On the flip side, Oregon has been a wrecking crew, and they profile to do pretty much whatever they want on the offensive end. Defensively, based on what Washington has looked like over the past 5 or 6 weeks, they look to have an edge on that side of the ball as well. Having said that, Washington has not given us any evidence that they will fall apart and get blown out. They beat Oregon once already, and they proved a lot to me when they won at Corvalis on a night that Penix didn't have it. I still have no interest in going against Kalen DeBoer, who is 6-1 ATS as a head coach as a dog and frankly I trust him a little bit more than I do Dan Lanning. There's a pretty severe performance gap between these two though, and Washington might be due a regression in the luck they've had this year, especially if the whispers about Penix playing injured are true. Gun to head I take the points, but I'm not confident enough to make it official.


CUSA Title Game: Both of teams have been money against the spread this year, so it's hard to pick one. Both teams have been great offensively, especially in the running game. Liberty QB Kaiden Salter has been great, probably among the most improved players in college football, as he was terrible last year. That's another indication as to how good Jamey Chadwell is, and he's a hard guy to go against. So is Jerry Kill, however, and you can say that Diego Pavia at NMSU has had just as bog a leap. The Aggies are 10-2 against the spread themselves. These two teams played earlier this year and Liberty pulled away late to hand the Aggies one of their only two ATS losses of the year. Both teams profile pretty much the same as they did back then, but NMSU has grown to be a team that finds a way to win, and that beat down they gave Auburn a couple weeks ago must be heeded. Overall I think Liberty is better on defense, but New Mexico State has been scrappy. I have a small bet on the dog at +11 here but I don't have enough of a conviction on it to do much more than that.
 
MAC Title game: Also nothing but a small bet on the dog here as well. 7.5 is out there now. I haven't bet it but probably will. The hesitation with Miami has been their weak offense since QB Brett Gabbert got hurt, but they haven't lost under backup Avieon Smith and that includes a 2 TD win at Ohio, one of the tougher places in the MAC to get a W. Defensively, they are very good, ranking 12th in yards per play, 15th in yards per pass attempt against, 9th on 3rd down and 6th in sack rate. The problem is this is the best offense they've faced and Toledo's defense has statistically been as good as theirs. I would never lay this many against a good team with Jason Candle however, so this would be Miami or nothing for me. Based on their track record this year, even with Smith at QB, I'll take the points here, but it's not super confident play.
 
Big 12 Title Game:

1. Texas -15 v Oklahoma State: This one probably looks like I'm being prisoner of the moment or being consumed by recency bias, and maybe that's right, but I really don't see how the Cowboys can keep this one close. I thought Texas would be sleepwalking through their game with Texas Tech last week, and I was clearly wrong on that one. They certainly won't be sleepwalking through this one because their season depends on it, and it probably depends on them blowing Oklahoma State out of the stadium if a couple other results go against them. Mike Gundy in a role like this is a bit scary, but there are no good matchups for the Cowboys in this one. They were able to make an about face on the season when they settled on Alan Bowman at QB and put all their eggs in the Ollie Gordon basket along with a new blocking scheme, and kudos to Gundy because it put them in the position to be in this game. Gordon has been dominant since then and their offense has been able to pile up points despite a passing game that isn't anything to write home about with Bowman. He's averaging 6.9 yards per attempt, which is about the same as Emory Jones and Brennan Armstrong, and he's got a 10/11 ratio. That's not likely to get it done against a Texas defense that ranks 24th in yards per play and 32nd in yards per pass attempt against. Texas also stops the run, ranking 5th in rushing yards per attempt, so Gordon will not have it easy. In the last few weeks, now that teams are fully aware that he's the focal point of the offense, Gordon has found much tougher sledding as it's taken a hell of a lot of carries to get the numbers he's been used to. In the last 4 weeks, he's averaged 4.2, yards per carry against Oklahoma, 2.1 against UCF, and only 4.9 against a BYU team that ranks 114th against the run for the year. He managed 164 yards against Houston recently, but a late 62 yard run in the 4th quarter propped that number up. Texas is likely to make Bowman beat them and I just don't see that going well for the Cowboys. Defensively, Okie State has been statistically terrible and has managed to pile up wins with smoke and mirrors on that side of the ball. They rank 109th in yards per play, 91st against the run and 124th against the pass. I'm not sure how they'll handle Worthy and Mitchell in the passing game, and Jaydon Blue is starting to assert himself in the backfield in Jonathan Brooks's absence. The Cowboys are usually a good dog, but they also usually have some advantages in the various position matchups. I see none of those this week. Texas also needs to keep piling on because a blowout will be impactful for the committee. My guess is that Texas will view this game a failure if they win in the 28-17 range. They need margin here and the matchups indicate they'll get it.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Big 12 Title Game:

1. Texas -15 v Oklahoma State: This one probably looks like I'm being prisoner of the moment or being consumed by recency bias, and maybe that's right, but I really don't see how the Cowboys can keep this one close. thought Texas would be sleepwalking through their game with Texas Tech last week, and I was clearly wrong on that one. They certainly won't be sleepwalking through this one because their season depends on it, and it probably depends on them blowing Oklahoma State out of the stadium if a couple other results go against them. Mike Gundy in a role like this is a bit scary, but there are no good matchups for the Cowboys in this one. They were able to make an about face on the season when they settled on Alan Bowman at QB and put all their eggs in the Ollie Gordon basket along with a new blocking scheme, and kudos to Gundy because it put them in the position to be in this game. Gordon has been dominant since then and their offense has been able to pile up points despite a passing game that isn't anything to write home about with Bowman. He's averaging 6.9 yards per attempt, which is about the same as Emory Jones and Brennan Armstrong, and he's got a 10/11 ratio. That's not likely to get it done against a Texas defense that ranks 24th in yards per play and 32nd in yards per pass attempt against. Texas also stops the run, ranking 5th in rushing yards per attempt, so Gordon will not have it easy. n the last few weeks, now that teams are fully aware that he's the focal point of the offense, Gordon has found much tougher sledding as it's take a hell of a lot of carries to get the numbers he's been used to. In the last 4 weeks, he's averaged 4.2, yards per carry against Oklahoma, 2.1 against UCF, and only 4.9 against a BYU team that ranks 114th against the run for the year. He managed 164 yards against Houston recently, but a late 62 yard run in the 4th quarter propped that number up. Texas is likely to make Bowman beat them and I just don't see that going well for the Cowboys. Defensively, Okie State has been statistically terrible and has managed t pile up wins with smoke and mirrors on that side of the ball. They rank 109th in yards per play, 91st against the run and 124th against the pass. I'm not sure how they'll handle Worthy and Mitchell in the passing game, and Jaydon Blue is starting to assert himself in the backfield in Jonathan Brooks's absence. The Cowboys are usually a good dog, but they also usually have some advantages in the various position matchups. I see none of those this week. Texas also needs to keep piling on because a blowout will be impactful for the committee. My guess is that Texas will view this game a failure if they win in the 28-17 range. They need margin here and the matchups indicate they'll get it.
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Nice writeup.

I have this as a 45-17 type game.
 
One comment on the Pac 12 game. I really hope we don't hear any smart aleck assholes complaining about Washington being in. They were forced to beat Oregon twice and they did it, and they were without a doubt the better team tonight. They ran it down Oregon's throats when they needed to. Awesome job by the Huskies.
 
Br@ssknux said:
One comment on the Pac 12 game. I really hope we don't hear any smart aleck assholes complaining about Washington being in. They were forced to beat Oregon twice and they did it, and they were without a doubt the better team tonight. They ran it down Oregon's throats when they needed to. Awesome job by the Huskies.
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Glad they got it done. Oregon just can’t get over the hump. It’s a yearly thing with them. Washington is legit though. Hope Texas gets in too. GA, Michigan, Washington, Texas would be epic.
 
Br@ssknux said:
One comment on the Pac 12 game. I really hope we don't hear any smart aleck assholes complaining about Washington being in. They were forced to beat Oregon twice and they did it, and they were without a doubt the better team tonight. They ran it down Oregon's throats when they needed to. Awesome job by the Huskies.
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Oregon was just never that good. That have been propped up for some reason all season.
 
Mountain West Title game: The game looks pretty even to me on paper, although I'm skeptical that Boise will be able to consistently stop UNLV's offense. Both offenses should be able to score. Boise's pass defense has been horrific over the year long sample, but better lately against worse passing offenses. They have several games (including vs San Diego State(!!)) in which they gave up 10+ yards per pass attempt, and UNLV resembles those teams more than the ones Boise showed improvement against. Given that, and considering a pretty major edge in coaching staffs for UNLV, you'd figure taking 2.5 points with UNLV would make sense, but I don't really want to get caught in front of this Boise train that's been running since they canned Avalos and they got George Holani back to set up a 2 headed monster with Ashton Jeanty. Also, Taylen Green actually looked pretty good throwing the ball against a solid pass defense in Air Force last week, so I'm gonna take a pass on this one.
 
2. SMU +(whatever it is at game time) @Tulane: It's 3/3.5 now, and I would probably recommend taking that, but I have to think this line will go up throughout the day on Saturday. A lot of the betting public probably doesn't know that SMU QB Preston Stone is out and I'm sure Tulane will take money. I got burned fading Tulane last week, but I'm going back to the well here. I think SMU has been the better team for pretty much the whole year. Tulane lackluster play continued last week. They got 4 first half turnovers and then UTSA fumbled once and were stopped on downs 3 times in the 2nd half and Tulane couldn't put them away until very late. This is after Tulane had beaten ECU by 3, Tulsa by 2 and Rice by 2 in the weeks prior to that. SMU has been blowing teams out all year and that's thanks to a remarkably consistent team on both sides of the ball. They rank in the top 10 defensively in every category other than run D(where they are 20th, not bad). Offensively they will be without Stone and will turn to backup Kevin Jennings, but hey are loaded on offense with impactful backs, some explosive receivers and a solid offensive line. I don't think the Mustang offense is going to just go into a shell because the QB is out. Jennings to his credit has been pressed into service in close games before, having relieved Tanner Mordecai last year when Stone wasn't available twice in close games. In those games against Memphis and Tulsa, he performed admirably, going 14/19 174 yards, 1 TD and no turnovers in games SMU won outright. If the SMU defense plays like it has all year, Tulane's offensive struggles will continue. They were gifted short fields all week last week and sputtered, having to kick 5 field goals. Both teams have played weak schedules, but SMU has absolutely pummeled many AAC squads, including Tulsa who they beat 69-10 and Temple 55-0. I found a significant amount of edges in this game for SMU. I don't expect Tulane to be able to run on the Mustangs, and Pratt hardly throws the ball anymore. If they get a competent effort from Jennings, which I think they can, they have plenty of very good players who will make a difference in this game on both sides of the ball. Tulane has historically been great at home, but this year they are only 2-5 ATS at home. Overall, I had SMU as a significantly superior team prior to Stone going out, and would probably have laid a few points if he were playing. SMU is a good team, and I think Tulane will finally see things catch up to them.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Mountain West Title game: The game looks pretty even to me on paper, although I'm skeptical that Boise will be able to consistently stop UNLV's offense. Both offenses should be able to score. Boise's pass defense has been horrific over the year long sample, but better lately against worse passing offenses. They have several games (including vs San Diego State(!!)) in which they gave up 10+ yards per pass attempt, and UNLV resembles those teams more than the ones Boise showed improvement against. Given that, and considering a pretty major edge in coaching staffs for UNLV, you'd figure taking 2.5 points with UNLV would make sense, but I don't really want to get caught in front of this Boise train that's been running since they canned Avalos and they got George Holani back to set up a 2 headed monster with Ashton Jeanty. Also, Taylen Green actually looked pretty good throwing the ball against a solid pass defense in Air Force last week, so I'm gonna take a pass on this one.
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I love some the Rebs passing props in this one
 
Br@ssknux said:
One comment on the Pac 12 game. I really hope we don't hear any smart aleck assholes complaining about Washington being in. They were forced to beat Oregon twice and they did it, and they were without a doubt the better team tonight. They ran it down Oregon's throats when they needed to. Awesome job by the Huskies.
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Anyone who says huskies don’t deserve in is just a asshole, plain and simple!! Lol

Now I feel bad bout saying this but I don’t think they should let fsu in. I know it not fair to them but life not fair and without their qb they not close to even a top 10 team let alone rop 4. Unless they been hiding a qb we don’t know bout!! Lol
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. SMU +(whatever it is at game time) @Tulane: It's 3/3.5 now, and I would probably recommend taking that, but I have to think this line will go up throughout the day on Saturday. A lot of the betting public probably doesn't know that SMU QB Preston Stone is out and I'm sure Tulane will take money. I got burned fading Tulane last week, but I'm going back to the well here. I think SMU has been the better team for pretty much the whole year. Tulane lackluster play continued last week. They got 4 first half turnovers and then UTSA fumbled once and were stopped on downs 3 times in the 2nd half and Tulane couldn't put them away until very late. This is after Tulane had beaten ECU by 3, Tulsa by 2 and Rice by 2 in the weeks prior to that. SMU has been blowing teams out all year and that's thanks to a remarkably consistent team on both sides of the ball. They rank in the top 10 defensively in every category other than run D(where they are 20th, not bad). Offensively they will be without Stone and will turn to backup Kevin Jennings, but hey are loaded on offense with impactful backs, some explosive receivers and a solid offensive line. I don't think the Mustang offense is going to just go into a shell because the QB is out. Jennings to his credit has been pressed into service in close games before, having relieved Tanner Mordecai last year when Stone wasn't available twice in close games. In those games against Memphis and Tulsa, he performed admirably, going 14/19 174 yards, 1 TD and no turnovers in games SMU won outright. If the SMU defense plays like it has all year, Tulane's offensive struggles will continue. They were gifted short fields all week last week and sputtered, having to kick 5 field goals. Both teams have played weak schedules, but SMU has absolutely pummeled many AAC squads, including Tulsa who they beat 69-10 and Temple 55-0. I found a significant amount of edges in this game for SMU. I don't expect Tulane to be able to run on the Mustangs, and Pratt hardly throws the ball anymore, If they get a competent effort from Jennings, which I think they can, they have plenty of very good players who will make a difference in this game on both sides of the ball. Tulane has historically been great at home, but this year they are only 2-5 ATS at home. Overall, I had SMU as a significantly superior team prior to Stone going out, and would probably have laid a few points if he were playing. SMU is a good team, and I think Tulane will finally see thing catch up to them.
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Agree points or nothing. Tulane gets one WR back but has many are hurt as well to your point about Pratt’s passing. I expect them to try and run a bunch.
 
B.A.R. said:
Of the teams from P5 playing this weekend...

Oregon had the worst SOS coming in at 62

Just above Georgia at 59
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I found it baffling this week, how there was an almost 100% dismissal of the scenario of Washington winning the game- ESPECIALLY after last year, when the same exact attitude for a rematch in the PAC-12 title game was crushed by Utah's pummeling of USC (the USC- Utah championship line was much lower, but the sentiment was the same). I mean, even guys recommending Washington +10 this were quick to qualify it by saying they wouldn't win. Great info on the schedules, BAR. Oregon was an excellent team this year, but gps is spot- on with the "propped up" characterization. Coupled with the downplaying of Washington- I mean, they took hits for not winning impressively enough AT OREGON ST. (!)- I was quizzically shaking my head all week.
 
gps_3 said:
Oregon was just never that good. That have been propped up for some reason all season.
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Looking for the best out of conference win for the entire conference. @ Texas Tech by Oregon in a game they were outplayed? Home against Boise by Washington? The entire conference is overrated as hell.
 
twinkie13 said:
Agree points or nothing. Tulane gets one WR back but has many are hurt as well to your point about Pratt’s passing. I expect them to try and run a bunch.
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They're missing their best WRs? I watched a lot of SMU and I just find it hard to replace Stone here. 10 point swing type of player in this matchup considering I don't think SMU can run against Tulane. Also I don't believe SMU covered a game vs. anyone .500 or better.
 
Inspekdah said:
They're missing their best WRs? I watched a lot of SMU and I just find it hard to replace Stone here. 10 point swing type of player in this matchup considering I don't think SMU can run against Tulane. Also I don't believe SMU covered a game vs. anyone .500 or better.
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It’s a wait and see. Gun to head under
 
Inspekdah said:
Looking for the best out of conference win for the entire conference. @ Texas Tech by Oregon in a game they were outplayed? Home against Boise by Washington? The entire conference is overrated as hell.
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Everyone had collectively deleted the texas tech game from their memory. I didn't because I had texas tech in that game and it was a BAD beat. They should've won outright.

Did it stop me from betting oregon last night? Nope! But at least I didn't forget:-)
 
Inspekdah said:
Looking for the best out of conference win for the entire conference. @ Texas Tech by Oregon in a game they were outplayed? Home against Boise by Washington? The entire conference is overrated as hell.
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I honestly think all that early season hype on Colorado and Deion elevated the conference as a whole prematurely. And when Oregon thumped them, it gave them all the momentum they needed.
 
AliShaheed said:
Everyone had collectively deleted the texas tech game from their memory. I didn't because I had texas tech in that game and it was a BAD beat. They should've won outright.

Did it stop me from betting oregon last night? Nope! But at least I didn't forget:)
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Same and same!
 
sevenpointroaddog said:
I found it baffling this week, how there was an almost 100% dismissal of the scenario of Washington winning the game- ESPECIALLY after last year, when the same exact attitude for a rematch in the PAC-12 title game was crushed by Utah's pummeling of USC (the USC- Utah championship line was much lower, but the sentiment was the same). I mean, even guys recommending Washington +10 this were quick to qualify it by saying they wouldn't win. Great info on the schedules, BAR. Oregon was an excellent team this year, but gps is spot- on with the "propped up" characterization. Coupled with the downplaying of Washington- I mean, they took hits for not winning impressively enough AT OREGON ST. (!)- I was quizzically shaking my head all week.
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Good points SPRD. Look at my writeup on this and I'm also guilty of kind of dismissing their chances of winning. It's gonna be a nonstop continuation of that narrative until the play in the playoff game too.
 
Br@ssknux said:
One comment on the Pac 12 game. I really hope we don't hear any smart aleck assholes complaining about Washington being in. They were forced to beat Oregon twice and they did it, and they were without a doubt the better team tonight. They ran it down Oregon's throats when they needed to. Awesome job by the Huskies.
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Could not agree more. I didn't see it coming, but I was thoroughly impressed by DeBoer's coaching/preparation and his players' execution. No question the better team won this game.
 
SEC Title Game

3. Alabama +5(-116) v Georgia: Naturally this game is falling because I've delayed in posting it. I got it at 6.5 much earlier in the week, but I still think the concepts are going to be valid even at 4.5. This game reminds me a LOT of the SEC title game from 2 years ago. Alabama is coming off a game they were extremely lucky to win in the Iron Bowl over a mediocre at best Auburn team. Georgia is undefeated while Alabama has a loss. Alabama's only shot at the playoff is to win this game, just like 2 years ago, and even then they probably need some sort of divine intervention. In all seriousness Georgia probably needs a win too, and their inclusion in the playoff is not a given like it was 2 years ago, but I still think there is probably a little bit of a lack of urgency in the back of the Georgia players' minds. "They wouldn't leave out the immortal 2 time defending champs would they? Come on, bruh." If they're smart they'll play with 100% urgency, and I'm sure Smart and Co will be telling them the risks of a loss, but we're dealing with dumb college kids who have been blown for going on 3 years. Also, what good defenses has Georgia's offense played against? In yards per play, only Tennessee and Kentucky are in the top 50. From a yards per pass attempt perspective, the best one they've played is Mizzou at #46. As for opponent passer rating, believe it or not Ball State at #61 is the toughest. Alabama ranks highly in all the defensive metrics, and will be easily the best defense Georgia has seen. The same will be true for Bama vs the Georgia defense, but Bama has seen Texas and A&M and has a much better strength of schedule overall. In order to get margin, Georgia will have to stop Milroe on the deep throw, and nobody has done that yet. We all know Bama's history when it comes to the "rat poison" being in their favor. I obviously loved it at 6.5, but I think this game will come down to the wire and I think it's a coin flip ultimately. Georgia has 2 national titles in their pockets and this Alabama group doesn't. I think that can make a big difference in motivation. If Georgia takes care of business easily here, I'll tip my cap, but I'm comfortable taking the points with Saban here.
 
B.A.R. said:
Of the teams from P5 playing this weekend...

Oregon had the worst SOS coming in at 62

Just above Georgia at 59
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What really makes me mad I fell for ducks offense and I never been a fan of that pop gun shit where 70% the pass attempts are at or behind the Los! For the most part I think a good defense can handle that shit! I guess some the problem huskies hadn’t looked that great but looking back I think their coach decided it was in his teams best interest to get away from hunting all big plays and developing a physical run game, they prob coulda did the same thing ducks been doing the last month and kicked the crap out of inferior teams but never really improving. Hats off to him for doing something most wouldn’t have the guts to do, I think it had made huskies even more dangerous going forward, opposed to last year when they were basically a 1 truck pony. Now they still have the ability to hit chunk plays on anyone but they also have a physical run game that does a bunch of things for them, not just the ability to sustain some drives but now teams can’t pin their ears back and try to take the big plays away, it gonna make them that much more dangerous and I think a legit contender!

Like I always say when bashing the nfl chargers, coaching matters more in football than any sport by a mile and huskies have one the best young coaches going!! The fact my nephew is playing for the 4a missouri state championship today proves coaches, determination, and effort can take a team further than raw ability. The team they destroyed in last weeks semi final was unquestionably more talented than them and never stood a chance!
 
Sun Belt Title Game:

4. Appy State +5.5 @Troy: Just can't pass up the chance to back Appy State in a dog role like this. Appy State is 9-1-1 since 2018 as a road dog and they've won 6 of them outright, twice this year including an outright win at JMU that nobody else has been able to do. The Mountaineers weakness is in on the defensive side in the run game, and Troy has not been effective in running the ball all year. Offensively, QB Joey Aguilar has given them all kinds of explosiveness, throwing for 3000+ yards and a 33/9 ratio. Offensively, they don't really have much of a weakness and their line has been great at keeping Aguilar clean, ranking 10th in sack rate, which is good because Troy can bring the heat. Pretty much every other matchup across the board is a tossup. Both teams have been on a roll and Troy has had a great year, but any opportunity to take a decent amount of points with Appalachian State must be capitalized on in my opinion. If Troy wins this by a TD or more they will have earned it.
 
Not gonna have a significant play on the ACC or Big Ten games. Went very small on Louisville +2.5 on Thursday and I grabbed Michigan -21 when it came down there earlier in the week.

The ACC game is a tossup. We don't even know if Rodemaker is going to play now, and he didn't look good against Florida's horrible defense. The rest of that team will be playing their asses off though, so I can see them doing enough to win.

Big Ten? Michigan might have that covered by halftime. 21 I should probably lay it with Michigan but it's really just a glorified scrimmage. I mean, Deacon Hill has 1 big time throw vs 13 turnover worthy plays. Can you fathom how bad that is? Tyler Buchner had 2 big time throws in something like 25 dropbacks and we all know he's so bad he can't hardly show his face in public. And Hill has to play the Iowa defense. I've said this before, but if the rules stipulated that Michigan was forced to either kick a field goal or punt on first down, I would make them a 6 point favorite.
 
Supposed to be some weather in charlotte right? I took the under
 
Br@ssknux said:
Not gonna have a significant play on the ACC or Big Ten games.....but if the rules stipulated that Michigan was forced to either kick a field goal or punt on first down, I would make them a 6 point favorite.
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this is really good
 
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