Championship Week Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
9-11 in the last week of the season, which unfortunately beings the season total a game below .500. 102-103-5.



I caught a glimpse of the playoff bracket show or whatever they call it, and all I can say is this Arkansas AD dunce needs to just stop talking. He's embarrassing his institution every time he opens his mouth. I think I've said this before, but we always like to poke fun at college coaches and surmise that they would be total failures in life if they had to do anything other than coach football, but ADs might be dumber. I don't even have the energy to chronicle all the different nonsensical things that were said by this moron. I don't think I have to. You guys know idiocy when you see it.

James Madison -23 LOSS
Boise State -4.5 WIN
Tulane +2.5 WIN
BYU +12.5 LOSS
Miami(OH) +2 LOSS
Georgia -2 WIN
Virginia -4 LOSS

3-4



1, James Madison -23 v Troy (BOL): I don't think there's anyone in the Sun Belt that can hang with these guys. Prior to a mid season tilt with Old Dominion, the Dukes offense was a bit questionable, but starting with that game they have piled up 52+ points in 4 of 6 games. Troy wouldn't even be here if not for the complete disintegration of Southern Miss's season(and my shot at a 30/1 conference championship future). I don't think Troy's defense can hold them down...Georgia State had 500+ yards on them two weeks ago. and I know their offense isn't going to compete effectively with this JMU defense, as they are 2 weeks removed from back to back weeks of averaging 160 yards per game against Arky State and ODU. As usual, this looks like a complete whitewash on paper with JMU having a major edge in every category. JMU needs margin, and there’s no reason to jump off this train at this point.

Dukes fucked around for 3 quarters but they got their bearings eventually, but never really got themselves going offensively. 411-177 yard edge, but most of that was in the 4th quarter for JMU. Looks like they'll still get a spot as I don't think Duke will catch them in the farcical rankings. 7-8 times out of 10 in this matchup they probably cover, but it didn't happen Friday. The JMU secondary was also very sloppy, giving up 6 pass plays of more than 20 yards to a very limited passing offense for Troy.
 
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2. @Boise State -4.5 v UNLV(BOL) : I guess the question to ask is whether Boise QB Maddux Madden is worth 9 points to the spread. A little more than a month ago, Boise beat UNLV 56-31 in Boise as a 13.5 point favorite. Now the Broncos are laying only 4.5. It's true that Madsen is out and Max Cutforth is in at QB for Boise, but Cutforth has settled in since a disastrous first game to the point that they have racked up 500+ yards the past 2 weeks against similar defenses to UNLV. . They’ve played well defensively, especially at home and actually fared well against a good Utah State offense last week. They’ve definitely had UNLV’s number over the years and this seems like an extreme lack of value for UNLV after they were getting 2 TDs just a few weeks ago, especially when there ultimately isn’t much difference between what these teams are right now, given Cutforth's improvement, and what they were then.
 
3. @Tulane +2.5 v North Texas(BOL) : I do think UNT has some juice because all of the projections assume Tulane is in the playoff, but I don’t like that they’re favored here on the road. Both teams have lost their coach(though I believe both will be coaching despite taking other jobs) so they are in the same boat. The Green Mean has been extremely impressive on offense, putting up 50+ on just about everyone, but Tulane has played the much tougher schedule(22nd to 124th) and has beaten both Duke and Northwestern at home. North Texas clubbed Washington State, who has proven to be a good team, but that was before the Cougars ended the charade of playing the extremely limited Jaxon Potter rather than Eckhouse at QB. Both offenses will have the edge over the respective defenses, but this UNT defense is significantly worse than Tulane’s, ranking 118th against the run and 121st on 3rd down, and that's against a very weak schedule. They are vulnerable to collapse in this one in my opinion I like the home dog here.

The moment was too big for he Green Mean. They got off to a good start and then got thrown into a locker until they added some production when the game was over. It's funny that this is the Tulane team that makes the postseason. I think most of the recent Tulane teams were probably better than this one, but congrats to the Green Wave, they were the without question the worthy team from the non power 4 conferences. Hopefully they don't get Ole Miss again.
 
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Not gonna have a play on the CUSA game. I'm gonna try to watch it thought because it should be, as the kids say, a banger. I have Kenny State as a slightly better squad but the game's at Jax State and the Gamecocks beat Owls 35-26 in Jacksonville a couple weeks ago. In that game, Kennesaw outgained Jax 579-451, but on a per play basis, the Gamecocks gained 8.1 yards per play to 6.4. Jax State could not stop Kenny however. The only time they stopped the Owls were on downs and Amari Odom threw 3 picks in the red zone. The Owls never punted in the game. I think it'll be more of the same in this one, but Kennesaw isn't going to be able to stop that ground game of Jax State either, and I don't like going against a running home dog. Should be a great game though.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. @Tulane +2.5 v North Texas(BOL) : I do think UNT has some juice because all of the projections assume Tulane is in the playoff, but I don’t like that they’re favored here on the road. Both teams have lost their coach(though I believe both will be coaching despite taking other jobs) so they are in the same boat. The Green Mean has been extremely impressive on offense, putting up 50+ on just about everyone, but Tulane has played the much tougher schedule(22nd to 124th) and has beaten both Duke and Northwestern at home. North Texas clubbed Washington State, who has proven to be a good team, but that was before the Cougars ended the charade of playing the extremely limited Jaxon Potter rather than Eckhouse at QB. Both offenses will have the edge over the respective defenses, but this UNT defense is significantly worse than Tulane’s, ranking 118th against the run and 121st on 3rd down, and that's against a very weak schedule. They are vulnerable to collapse in this one in my opinion I like the home dog here.
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I hope you’re right. I can’t get UTSA out of my head.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Boise State -4.5 v UNLV(BOL) : I guess the question to ask is whether Boise QB Maddux Madden is worth 9 points to the spread. A little more than a month ago, Boise beat UNLV 56-31 in Boise as a 13.5 point favorite. Now the Broncos are laying only 4.5. It's true that Madsen is out and Max Cutforth is in at QB for Boise, but Cutforth has settled in since a disastrous first game to the point that they have racked up 500+ yards the past 2 weeks against similar defenses to UNLV. . They’ve played well defensively, especially at home and actually fared well against a good Utah State offense last week. They’ve definitely had UNLV’s number over the years and this seems like an extreme lack of value for UNLV after they were getting 2 TDs just a few weeks ago, especially when there ultimately isn’t much difference between what these teams are right now, given Cutforth's improvement, and what they were then.
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All the reports I've seen say Madden is playing tonight
 
bones said:
Best of luck and thanks for all you do.

Bad news, I bet two of these already.

I was opposite of you on the other one but then "bet back" on it last night and have no wager.

Everyone on this site looks forward to your posts
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Thanks for the kind words as always Bones. Hpe you cash all your tickets!
 
4. BYU +12.5 v Texas Tech (BR) : I'm like a masochist with my continued insistence on betting against Texas Tech. But in this case, I think there are a lot of things going in BYU's favor here. First of all, in the first game, even though BYU got run out of Lubbock, they were able to keep the Red Raiders out of the end zone for the most part. I don't believe Tech can run it on BYU, who has been very solid on defense in all phases all year. The problem for BYU is trying to move the ball on this defense. They tried to run it on Tech last time and that did not work out. LJ Martin was just coming back from injury and was not at full strength in the first meeting, he is now. That doesn't men that BYU should run it though. Their best chance is with Bear Bachmeier chucking it down field, and they'll have Chase Roberts back who has ben one of the most productive receivers they've had this side of Puka Nacua. The TT corners I think can be had, and having Roberts back will be a major help. BYU must have this game if they want to play in the playoff, and Texas Tech doesn't need it. They are in regardless. That's important info in this one and adds motivation for BYU that they probably didn't need anyway. They are a proud program who got embarrassed last time. In addition, there's some feel good vibes around Kalani Sitake now that he has foresaken Penn State. BYU also played a tougher schedule. I like the bounce back potential of the Cougs here, especially at a neutral site. If Bachmeier can complete some downfield throws, this could get interesting, , and even with as good as the Texas Tech run defense has been, I wouldn't be surprised if LJ Martin and Bachmeier have significantly more success running the ball now that Martin is healthy and we're not in that lion's den in Lubbock.

The Texas Tech abuse of Br@ssknux continues. Watch me play them in the playoff and they get curb stomped. In this one, the injury to Bachmeier basically ended things for BYU. His running ability is a huge part of their attack and after the Texas Tech lineman deliberately twisted his ankle in the pile, the BYU offense basically had no chance. They looked good before that, but he could hardly move, and BYu clearly has no other option back there. Congrats to Tech though, they will get a bye.
 
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texsn95 said:
JFC JMU should have destroyed that team. Talk about sleep-walking for 3 quarters. What a boring, slow, uninventive offensive scheme for most of that game. Pathetic.
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Yeah they were nowhere near as focused as I thought they'd be. Also on defense in the secondary. They gave up something like 7 pass plays of over 20 yards. They were pressuring Crowder like crazy as we figured(8 sacks) but every time he got it off downfield Troy came up with it. If they snapped out of it at half it's an easy cover, but alas.
 
5. Miami (OH) +2 v Western Michigan (BR) : Not a ton of analysis here, more of a feel play with a couple extra things thrown in. WMU has rode heir defense to this spot. They've been very good all year, and they've held every MAC opponent other than Miami and Eastern Michigan last week under 300 yards on their way to a 7-1 conference record. Having said that, the Miami defense is even better, save their somewhat fluky inability to get off the field on 3rd down. I wouldn't be anywhere close to backing Miami here is they had stayed with Henry Hesson at QB, who was the first choice after Daquan Finn walked out on the team a few weeks ago. He was so bad he made them unbettable. HC Chuck Martin figured that out and switched to Freshman Thomas Gotkowski who has looked very good, albeit against weak competition. Nonetheless, he's averaging more than 2 yards per attempt better than Hesson. In a defensive game between two pretty evenly matched teams, I'll take the team with the stronger pedigree and more proven coach. Miami won the game they played this year in Oxford and outgained the Broncos by 2 yards per play. That was with Finn at QB, but I think it might illustrate where these two teams match up. I wouldn't lay much with the Redhawks here, but I'll certainly take a couple points.

I was really surprised by how this game went. WMU was without a doubt the right side, and they moved the ball at will on what I thought was a pretty good Redhawk defense. The coaching edge was non-existent, Miami's special teams made no difference. Miami gave up 286 yards on the ground and couldn't stop Buckley if he told them what the play was. 100% wrong on this one.
 
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texsn95 said:
JFC JMU should have destroyed that team. Talk about sleep-walking for 3 quarters. What a boring, slow, uninventive offensive scheme for most of that game. Pathetic.
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And the receivers had hands of stone. Such is life
 
6. Georgia -2 v Alabama (BOL) : My convictions aren't that strong in this game but I've got to take a side I guess. At least that's what my degenerate self says to my civilian self. The line moved to 2 but with good reason, because there's a pretty solid chance this game ends up a 1 point game either way. The teams are pretty evenly matched, but on paper, Georgia's got more edges in the head to head matchups. Bama will not be able to run on them, so it's going to be on Ty Simpson. He won't be tasked with a pass rush like he saw against Auburn unless something drastically changes with how Georgia rushes the passer, but he won't have much help in the run game, especially if Jam Miller doesn't play, and he likely won't have TE Cuevas either, or he'll at least be hobbled. I like Simpson a lot, and he's a playmaker, but this Georgia defense has gotten a lot better in their coverage since early in the season. I also had no idea that LT Overton will be out for them, and that will be a major issue on the DL line for them. The loss of Bobo at center is clearly an issue for the Dawgs, at least in a one game sample, because they couldn't do anything against a shit defense in Georgia Tech last week, but they've had a week to tinker with it so I assume they'll look better, and they ran on Alabama pretty successfully last time without even incorporating Stockton in the run game. I think they'll do that a lot more this time, and the oldest trop in the book is that Bama struggles with running QBs. There's also a pretty big edge in special teams for Georgia in this one as FEI has Bama at 97th and Georgia at 8th in special teams rankings. That can make a huge difference in a close game. Alabama has owned Georgia, and is actually undefeated in this stadium, but I think the Dawgs have been just a little bit better, and they're definitely healthier coming into this game.

-3 rushing yards for Bama, wow. Simpson was sacked 3 times(seemed like more) so even Georgia's #1 deficiency on defense was a positive for them in this one. Georgia didn't set the world on fire on offense, lots of dink and dunk, but that's all they needed. I still think Bama should be in if they were considered ahead of ND and Miami before this game. Can't allow a team who didn't make a championship game benefit for not having to play. If either ND or Miami had to play Georgia a couple hours from their campus they might have looked bad too. I'm not an SEC homer but I feel strongly about not allowing these championship games to be a burden to play. If they had Bama as slightly behind those teams, fine, but you can't knock them out, especially when they already beat Georgia.
 
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Not making a write up on Indiana Ohio State. I have nice futures on Indiana to win the Big Ten at some pretty good numbers so I'll be rooting for Indiana. Gonna hedge some with OSU but not gonna make a recommendation here. One thing that is definitely true in this one is that this game means WAY more to Indiana than it does to Ohio State. Keep in mind that the winner wins the Big Ten and also gets the Rose Bowl, which is something Indiana hasn't even dreamed about since 1967. Ohio State has proven all year that their only concern is the national title, so this is almost a burden for them to have to play. They haven't even been tested. That's the dynamic, but I can't ever suggest a fade of Ohio State at this short of a price so I'll just watch and hope the Hoosiers win it.
 
7. Virginia -4 v Duke (BOL) : I should have written this up on Sunday night when the line came out at 3. I would play this probably up to 7, maybe more, so the line at 4 doesn't really matter. Duke's only shot in this game is if they get turnovers like they got last week against Wake, but even if they do, I'm not convinced Virginia doesn't cover anyway. The matchup is terrible for Duke. UVa has them beat in pretty much every area, and they are especially good (3rd down) in the areas Duke struggles. Their pass game has looked better as Morris's health has improved, and Duke cannot stop anyone through the air and even on the ground in recent weeks. Even Robby Ashford threw is for 342 yards on them last week, and UVa's pass protection can handle whatever blitzes Manny Diaz wants to throw at them. I know people are skeptical of Virginia, but I think this is a good team, and I don't think they'll just get run over if they make the playoff. They are solid in just about every area, and their defense has been extremely reliable all year. We should also acknowledge that the ACC will have a disaster on it's hands if Duke wins this game because the Blue Devils are not going to the playoff. The last thing the ACC can have happen is getting shut out of the playoff. Maybe there's a way to get Miami in there that I'm not thinking of, but the easiest way to avoid that scenario is to make sure Virginia wins. I'm not saying, I'm just sayin.

Just a choke job by Virginia. For the majority of the game they were outplayed by an average team they were clearly better than in every category, and they had every motivational reason to not throw a stinker out and they did anyway. Terrible performance. I did not see that one coming but I would probably make that bet again if they played Sunday.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
7. Virginia -4 v Duke (BOL) : I should have written this up on Sunday night when the line came out at 3. I would play this probably up to 7, maybe more, so the line at 4 doesn't really matter. Duke's only shot in this game is if they get turnovers like they got last week against Wake, but even if they do, I'm not convinced Virginia doesn't cover anyway. The matchup is terrible for Duke. UVa has them beat in pretty much every area, and they are especially good (3rd down) in the areas Duke struggles. Their pass game has looked better as Morris's health has improved, and Duke cannot stop anyone through the air and even on the ground in recent weeks. Even Robby Ashford threw is for 342 yards on them last week, and UVa's pass protection can handle whatever blitzes Manny Diaz wants to throw at them. I know people are skeptical of Virginia, but I think this is a good team, and I don't think they'll just get run over if they make the playoff. They are solid in just about every area, and their defense has been extremely reliable all year. We should also acknowledge that the ACC will have a disaster on it's hands if Duke wins this game because the Blue Devils are not going to the playoff. The last thing the ACC can have happen is getting shut out of the playoff. Maybe there's a way to get Miami in there that I'm not thinking of, but the easiest way to avoid that scenario is to make sure Virginia wins. I'm not saying, I'm just sayin.
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Good stuff here.

On November 15th I had a few team totals over on Virginia.... That was a semi hold your nose play ... But a pure fade of that Duke defense.
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. Georgia -2 v Alabama (BOL) : My convictions aren't that strong in this game but I've got to take a side I guess. At least that's what my degenerate self says to my civilian self. The line moved to 2 but with good reason, because there's a pretty solid chance this game ends up a 1 point game either way. The teams are pretty evenly matched, but on paper, Georgia's got more edges in the head to head matchups. Bama will not be able to run on them, so it's going to be on Ty Simpson. He won't be tasked with a pass rush like he saw against Auburn unless something drastically changes with how Georgia rushes the passer, but he won't have much help in the run game, especially if Jam Miller doesn't play, and he likely won't have TE Cuevas either, or he'll at least be hobbled. I like Simpson a lot, and he's a playmaker, but this Georgia defense has gotten a lot better in their coverage since early in the season. I also had no idea that LT Overton will be out for them, and that will be a major issue on the DL line for them. The loss of Bobo at center is clearly an issue for the Dawgs, at least in a one game sample, because they couldn't do anything against a shit defense in Georgia Tech last week, but they've had a week to tinker with it so I assume they'll look better, and they ran on Alabama pretty successfully last time without even incorporating Stockton in the run game. I think they'll do that a lot more this time, and the oldest trop in the book is that Bama struggles with running QBs. There's also a pretty big edge in special teams for Georgia in this one as FEI has Bama at 97th and Georgia at 8th in special teams rankings. That can make a huge difference in a close game. Alabama has owned Georgia, and is actually undefeated in this stadium, but I think the Dawgs have been just a little bit better, and they're definitely healthier coming into this game.
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I'm with you on Georgia and your special teams evaluation is right on the money. Alabama has no confidence in their kicker and there is good reason for that
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. BYU +12.5 v Texas Tech (BR) : I'm like a masochist with my continued insistence on betting against Texas Tech. But in this case, I think there are a lot of things going in BYU's favor here. First of all, in the first game, even though BYU got run out of Lubbock, they were able to keep the Red Raiders out of the end zone for the most part. I don't believe Tech can run it on BYU, who has been very solid on defense in all phases all year. The problem for BYU is trying to move the ball on this defense. They tried to run it on Tech last time and that did not work out. LJ Martin was just coming back from injury and was not at full strength in the first meeting, he is now. That doesn't men that BYU should run it though. Their best chance is with Bear Bachmeier chucking it down field, and they'll have Chase Roberts back who has ben one of the most productive receivers they've had this side of Puka Nacua. The TT corners I think can be had, and having Roberts back will be a major help. BYU must have this game if they want to play in the playoff, and Texas Tech doesn't need it. They are in regardless. That's important info in this one and adds motivation for BYU that they probably didn't need anyway. They are a proud program who got embarrassed last time. In addition, there's some feel good vibes around Kalani Sitake now that he has foresaken Penn State. BYU also played a tougher schedule. I like the bounce back potential of the Cougs here, especially at a neutral site. If Bachmeier can complete some downfield throws, this could get interesting, , and even with as good as the Texas Tech run defense has been, I wouldn't be surprised if LJ Martin and Bachmeier have significantly more success running the ball now that Martin is healthy and we're not in that lion's den in Lubbock.
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I can’t bring myself to be against tech but at same time there no way im interested in laying basically the same number in a rematch on a neutral that vastly more important to byu and prob the entire conf that they at the very least are competitive. Mostly agree with you other than I don’t think LJ will have much success on the ground (have a little LJ under 71.5) and I do think tech will be able to run on them as their backs went for almost 200 the 1st meeting, plenty of other solid rush teams had success on ground vs cougs, isu, Utah, zona all went for 150+ (a few broke 200). I actually played tech total rushing over 138.5 and feel pretty good about that, my only worry is cougs did get to Morten quite a bit the 1st meeting and those sack yards count against the rush total.

I agree with you in that I think the potential biggest difference in this game is backmeier passing, actually love his passing prop over 186.5, that my favorite play in this game (played some alt ov 225 also) BYU would be wise to open things up and try to push the ball down field early and often on early downs, i think if they come out trying to force the run game they be banging their head against a wall, maybe if they come out aggressively in the pass game it will open up some rushing lanes later but just don’t see them coming out rushing with success when ya know that be tech defensive focus and their strength. Hopefully im right bout Backmeier and his arm keeps them in the game. Gl buddy.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Not making a write up on Indiana Ohio State. I have nice futures on Indiana to win the Big Ten at some pretty good numbers so I'll be rooting for Indiana. Gonna hedge some with OSU but not gonna make a recommendation here. One thing that is definitely true in this one is that this game means WAY more to Indiana than it does to Ohio State. Keep in mind that the winner wins the Big Ten and also gets the Rose Bowl, which is something Indiana hasn't even dreamed about since 1967. Ohio State has proven all year that their only concern is the national title, so this is almost a burden for them to have to play. They haven't even been tested. That's the dynamic, but I can't ever suggest a fade of Ohio State at this short of a price so I'll just watch and hope the Hoosiers win it.
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I don't think I've ever agreed more with a "no play." Your points are excellent- and I'll simply add to the argument.

1) Adding to the "it means more to Indiana" point, I'll go further on that. Ohio State is on such a different level now, that they probably have trouble getting up for most of their regular season games. However, after coasting through this season, they definitely WERE up for Michigan this year, for obvious reasons. So, this year, with the playoffs on deck, and the Michigan drubbing achieved, we can actually argue that the conference championship game is a SANDWICH game for Ohio State, emotionally!
2) On the other side of it, how can we go against a team that is 10-1-1 ATS? That's Ohio State. And they've been laying way more than 4 or 3.5, or whatever the current line is here. Bet against them? No, thank you.

Many times, when handicapping, I'd fret over the question, "Can I trust either of these teams to cover?" This one is the opposite: "Can I really feel good about betting against either of these teams?" I say, "No."
 
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Br@ssknux said:
7. Virginia -4 v Duke (BOL) : I should have written this up on Sunday night when the line came out at 3. I would play this probably up to 7, maybe more, so the line at 4 doesn't really matter. Duke's only shot in this game is if they get turnovers like they got last week against Wake, but even if they do, I'm not convinced Virginia doesn't cover anyway. The matchup is terrible for Duke. UVa has them beat in pretty much every area, and they are especially good (3rd down) in the areas Duke struggles. Their pass game has looked better as Morris's health has improved, and Duke cannot stop anyone through the air and even on the ground in recent weeks. Even Robby Ashford threw is for 342 yards on them last week, and UVa's pass protection can handle whatever blitzes Manny Diaz wants to throw at them. I know people are skeptical of Virginia, but I think this is a good team, and I don't think they'll just get run over if they make the playoff. They are solid in just about every area, and their defense has been extremely reliable all year. We should also acknowledge that the ACC will have a disaster on it's hands if Duke wins this game because the Blue Devils are not going to the playoff. The last thing the ACC can have happen is getting shut out of the playoff. Maybe there's a way to get Miami in there that I'm not thinking of, but the easiest way to avoid that scenario is to make sure Virginia wins. I'm not saying, I'm just sayin.
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Love this. Duke cannot last for 60 minutes with the Cavs.
 
I played virginia ml (-145) very early in yhe week as i thought the number would rise, which it did.

As a bettor, i like my chances here. As a non-fan of all the hokey playoff situations, part of me wants to see boyh duke, uga, and byu win today.

In doing so, it creates some major headaches for the "selection committee" (quotes on purpose) and having to choose certain situations that will have far reaching ramifications.

Also, i like more of the "little guys" being in there, like march madness used to be. Your reward for a great year, playing good competition, winning you league or division should provide you with an opportunity to have postseason rewards.

That is just not how things are currently shaking out. I suppose i will have to get used to it as i dont see myself NOT being a fan of college football. But it doesny mean i have to like it.

Having said all that, im considering trying to middle my eatly bet oit with a spread play on duke since i have seen a couple 4.5s pop.
 
B.A.R. said:
Good stuff here.

On November 15th I had a few team totals over on Virginia.... That was a semi hold your nose play ... But a pure fade of that Duke defense.
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That game was one of the few good reads/rocking chairs I had this year.
 
2daBank said:
I can’t bring myself to be against tech but at same time there no way im interested in laying basically the same number in a rematch on a neutral that vastly more important to byu and prob the entire conf that they at the very least are competitive. Mostly agree with you other than I don’t think LJ will have much success on the ground (have a little LJ under 71.5) and I do think tech will be able to run on them as their backs went for almost 200 the 1st meeting, plenty of other solid rush teams had success on ground vs cougs, isu, Utah, zona all went for 150+ (a few broke 200). I actually played tech total rushing over 138.5 and feel pretty good about that, my only worry is cougs did get to Morten quite a bit the 1st meeting and those sack yards count against the rush total.

I agree with you in that I think the potential biggest difference in this game is backmeier passing, actually love his passing prop over 186.5, that my favorite play in this game (played some alt ov 225 also) BYU would be wise to open things up and try to push the ball down field early and often on early downs, i think if they come out trying to force the run game they be banging their head against a wall, maybe if they come out aggressively in the pass game it will open up some rushing lanes later but just don’t see them coming out rushing with success when ya know that be tech defensive focus and their strength. Hopefully im right bout Backmeier and his arm keeps them in the game. Gl buddy.
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Bachmeier's injury gonna make it tough. he's really hobbling. Good point about a BYU win helping the Big 12. I forgot to mention that in the writeup.

Did anyone else notice that Bachmeier's injury happened when the DL from TT yanked his ankle on purpose during the tackle? Also, later after he got rid of a pass a different guy did the same thing on his other ankle. I don't think there's a backup option for the Cougs either. Maybe TT knew that.
 
sevenpointroaddog said:
I don't think I've ever agreed more with a "no play." Your points are excellent- and I'll simply add to the argument.

1) Adding to the "it means more to Indiana" point, I'll go further on that. Ohio State is on such a different level now, that they probably have trouble getting up for most of their regular season games. However, after coasting through this season, they definitely WERE up for Michigan this year, for obvious reasons. So, this year, with the playoffs on deck, and the Michigan drubbing achieved, we can actually argue that the conference championship game is a SANDWICH game for Ohio State, emotionally!
2) On the other side of it, how can we go against a team that is 10-1-1 ATS? That's Ohio State. And they've been laying way more than 4 or 3.5, or whatever the current line is here. Bet against them? No, thank you.

Many times, when handicapping, I'd fret over the question, "Can I trust either of these teams to cover?" This one is the opposite: "Can I really feel good about betting against either of these teams?" I say, "No."
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This is so well articulated SPRD. Definitely true and your point about it actually being a sandwich game is without question true IMO. That's how good OSU has been. Incredible. Thanks as always for your input. Great stuff.
 
slim5150 said:
I played virginia ml (-145) very early in yhe week as i thought the number would rise, which it did.

As a bettor, i like my chances here. As a non-fan of all the hokey playoff situations, part of me wants to see boyh duke, uga, and byu win today.

In doing so, it creates some major headaches for the "selection committee" (quotes on purpose) and having to choose certain situations that will have far reaching ramifications.

Also, i like more of the "little guys" being in there, like march madness used to be. Your reward for a great year, playing good competition, winning you league or division should provide you with an opportunity to have postseason rewards.

That is just not how things are currently shaking out. I suppose i will have to get used to it as i dont see myself NOT being a fan of college football. But it doesny mean i have to like it.

Having said all that, im considering trying to middle my eatly bet oit with a spread play on duke since i have seen a couple 4.5s pop.
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Yes, root for chaos. Especially when it involves corrupt people.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks Splinter. You think Penn State is a play on in the bowls?
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Looks like the Pinstripe Bowl (which is fitting since no one likes to play there)> Maybe they will get Clemson and it could be the "what could have been until we shit the bed" bowl
 
splinter65 said:
Looks like the Pinstripe Bowl (which is fitting since no one likes to play there)> Maybe they will get Clemson and it could be the "what could have been until we shit the bed" bowl
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I was thinking of considering them a team worth playing on based on how they finished. Do you think they'll be motivated and engaged?
 
Bad day on Saturday, 1-3 after 2-1 Friday, so we remained under .500 for the year. Recaps coming. Will be interesting to see what happens today. Should have all the bowl matchups and the bowl thread will be forthcoming.
 
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