Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
The slide continued last week as I staggered to a 9-11-1 slate to finish the regular season(for all intents and purposes) at 94-86 with a few pushes. Honestly, some irregular things happened to result in that performance, but that kind of thing happens every week, so what can you say?
*****As for this week, hillariously, I wrote up the two games from tonight this afternoon, (listed below) but apparently did not hit enter, as they were sitting here on my screen as I sat down to write tomorrow's games up. Naturally, they were two of the better calls I've made all year, so I'll not delete them since I need to remind myself I occasionally get some right. At least I'll probably cash tickets on them. Again, these are late, so they are here only for posterity and my own selfish reasons.
1. @UTSA +3.5 v Western Kentucky: WKU came up big for me last week, and they've been good all year, but I really think we are getting ahead of ourselves by writing off UTSA in this spot after the year they had. I actually liked North Texas against the Roadrunners last week because it was a horrendous spot after their massive comeback against UAB the week before, but from a technical standpoint I couldn't make a case for the Mean Green so I sat it out. They had their worst game of the year while WKU was taking care of Marshall, who by the way can't cover a game at home to save their lives. So we are just to expect that the same thing will happen this week, right? Don't forget that although they gave up 600+ to WKU in Bowling Green earlier this year, the Roadrunners won that game anyway, dropping 52 points and 570 yards themselves. They also have this game at home, and the Alamodome is a distinct home field advantage for them, as they've drawn 35k plus in recent weeks and San Antonio has adopted them as their home team. Now that the line has gotten to 3.5, I think there's value in this line, especially since the Roadrunners are much more likely to resemble the team that was 11-0 rather than the one that showed up in Denton last week.
2. Utah -2 v Oregon: Anyone who watched the first matchup between these two knows that the result of that game was due to much more than it being a good night for Utah and a bad night for Oregon. It was a physical mauling, and a complete humiliation for Oregon. The fact that it happened only 3 weeks ago makes me wonder why the difference in the line is only about 5-6 points., considering we went from a Utah home game to a neutral field. Has something drastically changed fo either team? If anything, Oregon has even less to play for, since they are eliminated from the playoff picture. I guess a Rose Bowl berth, but the Ducks have done that plenty of times recently. Utah still doesn't jump off the page statistically in the pass game, but they have been very potent in big games since Cam Rising took over, and they definitely were effective against the Ducks last time. Also, Oregon's 3rd down defense has fallen to 118th in the country, so they'll continue to have trouble getting off the field against an efficient offense like Utah. To to it off the line has been moving against Oregon all day. It would be foolish to go against Utah in this spot. The only way I can see doing is if you're just trying to be a contrarian, and most of the pundits I've seen are on the Ducks, so you're not even doing that.
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The real 1. Kent State -3.5 v Northern Illinois: This was a wild game the first time these two teams teed it up with Kent getting a 52-47 win in a game that saw both teams go over 600 yards of total offense. Both offenses are pretty solid but both defenses are putrid, ranking exclusively in the 110+ range in just about every category. Ultimately though, I think Kent is a more legit squad. Offensively, NIU ranks only 73rd in yards per pass attempt, and we all know Rocky Lombardi doesn't have anyone confusing him with Drew Brees. Their actual bread and butter is running the ball, but in that game, they couldn't run it and flukishly, Lombardi and WR Trayvon Rudolph hooked up for almost 400 yards passing in that game(!!), which accounted for almost half of Rudolph's production on the year. Meanwhile, Kent ran it at more than 8 yards a clip and Dustin Crum torched them through the air as well. I don't see NIU stopping Kent here, and I don't see a repeat from Lombardi and Rudolph either. I think Kent proves they're the better team this time, and even with that outlier performance from Lombardi last time, the Huskies still lost by more than this line.
*****As for this week, hillariously, I wrote up the two games from tonight this afternoon, (listed below) but apparently did not hit enter, as they were sitting here on my screen as I sat down to write tomorrow's games up. Naturally, they were two of the better calls I've made all year, so I'll not delete them since I need to remind myself I occasionally get some right. At least I'll probably cash tickets on them. Again, these are late, so they are here only for posterity and my own selfish reasons.
1. @UTSA +3.5 v Western Kentucky: WKU came up big for me last week, and they've been good all year, but I really think we are getting ahead of ourselves by writing off UTSA in this spot after the year they had. I actually liked North Texas against the Roadrunners last week because it was a horrendous spot after their massive comeback against UAB the week before, but from a technical standpoint I couldn't make a case for the Mean Green so I sat it out. They had their worst game of the year while WKU was taking care of Marshall, who by the way can't cover a game at home to save their lives. So we are just to expect that the same thing will happen this week, right? Don't forget that although they gave up 600+ to WKU in Bowling Green earlier this year, the Roadrunners won that game anyway, dropping 52 points and 570 yards themselves. They also have this game at home, and the Alamodome is a distinct home field advantage for them, as they've drawn 35k plus in recent weeks and San Antonio has adopted them as their home team. Now that the line has gotten to 3.5, I think there's value in this line, especially since the Roadrunners are much more likely to resemble the team that was 11-0 rather than the one that showed up in Denton last week.
2. Utah -2 v Oregon: Anyone who watched the first matchup between these two knows that the result of that game was due to much more than it being a good night for Utah and a bad night for Oregon. It was a physical mauling, and a complete humiliation for Oregon. The fact that it happened only 3 weeks ago makes me wonder why the difference in the line is only about 5-6 points., considering we went from a Utah home game to a neutral field. Has something drastically changed fo either team? If anything, Oregon has even less to play for, since they are eliminated from the playoff picture. I guess a Rose Bowl berth, but the Ducks have done that plenty of times recently. Utah still doesn't jump off the page statistically in the pass game, but they have been very potent in big games since Cam Rising took over, and they definitely were effective against the Ducks last time. Also, Oregon's 3rd down defense has fallen to 118th in the country, so they'll continue to have trouble getting off the field against an efficient offense like Utah. To to it off the line has been moving against Oregon all day. It would be foolish to go against Utah in this spot. The only way I can see doing is if you're just trying to be a contrarian, and most of the pundits I've seen are on the Ducks, so you're not even doing that.
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The real 1. Kent State -3.5 v Northern Illinois: This was a wild game the first time these two teams teed it up with Kent getting a 52-47 win in a game that saw both teams go over 600 yards of total offense. Both offenses are pretty solid but both defenses are putrid, ranking exclusively in the 110+ range in just about every category. Ultimately though, I think Kent is a more legit squad. Offensively, NIU ranks only 73rd in yards per pass attempt, and we all know Rocky Lombardi doesn't have anyone confusing him with Drew Brees. Their actual bread and butter is running the ball, but in that game, they couldn't run it and flukishly, Lombardi and WR Trayvon Rudolph hooked up for almost 400 yards passing in that game(!!), which accounted for almost half of Rudolph's production on the year. Meanwhile, Kent ran it at more than 8 yards a clip and Dustin Crum torched them through the air as well. I don't see NIU stopping Kent here, and I don't see a repeat from Lombardi and Rudolph either. I think Kent proves they're the better team this time, and even with that outlier performance from Lombardi last time, the Huskies still lost by more than this line.
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