Championship Week Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
78-78-4 (13.80)

Last week was simply great. Got back a nice portion on the posted plays. The icing on the cake was the three I added Saturday night. Mizzou, Scary and Auburn. I'll admit I was lucky on Scary but had been looking at Mizzou for a month now and had to. That helped me clear almost 10 units for the week and now we move into the last week of the season.

Appreciate all the hard-work from everyone of you in the CFB forum this season. Its been a blast and lets have a great closing week and enjoy the bowl season.

*Thoughts and Analysis to Come Tomorrow*

Southern California -20 -110 4 units
Washington +14 -110
Virginia Tech -4 -120 2.5 units


I am hoping Central Michigan gets to a flat three. Also pondering a few totals. Missouri is still a thought as well. I'll have a sexy write-up for the SC-UCLA and VT-BC games tomorrow afternoon.

:36_7_1:
 
Oregon vs. UCLA passing
In UCLA's 16-0 win over Oregon, Brady Leaf, Justin Roper and Cody Kempt combined to complete 11 of 39 passes for 105 yards and three interceptions. UCLA's Ben Olson and Osaar Rasshan combined to complete four of 17 passes for 64 yards and two picks, with Rasshan going a Blutosky-like 0-for-7 with a pick. That means between five quarterbacks, the two teams combined to completed 15 of 56 passes (28%) for 169 yards and five interceptions.
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:seeya:
 
USC looks good. My only fear is a backdoor cover. However, my brain tells me the men of Troy pour that shit on. I don't see Pete or Sark (Offensive Coordinator) letting up on this game. Not against FUCLA.

I also think Oklahoma will cover easily. Stoops will pull this one off and then will proceed to choke in the BCS.
 
there definitely won't be a backdoor cover in the sc-ucla game. Carrol will try to win by 70 if he can help it.

carrol will also take away UCLA's best weapon, which is sadly, the kickoff return. I doubt he kicks off to Slater a single time. He'll probably pooch it every time like he did vs. Maurice Drew in 2005.



im biased, but I do think UCLA's defense matches up perfectly with sc's offense. DeWayne Walker has a huge advantage having been the first assistant Carrol hired at sc. He's very familiar with the offensive system they try to run.

Its the offense thats the problem. I was telling tru, Ben Olson might die on the field. Olson has literally zero chance vs. sc's defense. The fact that hes starting is the only reason I refuse to go to the game. He's hopeless. Unless Cowan comes in (he's been cleared to play), I fully expect a shutout. At the very least no offensive TD's.


fwiw, this is an interesting post i saw on another board regarding how rushing yards correlate with success in JD Booty starts:

What is the number of games that USC has won with JDB at the helm where they have rushed for less than 100 yards?

The answer is just one. Rose Bowl last year, USC versus Michigan. Michigan, as I recall, had a great run D last year, but could be absolutely torched through the air.

When USC rushes for over 100 yards, he is 17-0.
When USC rushes for less than 100 yards, he is 1-4.
 
np BAR. sorry for throwing out a random game in your thread that you didnt mention anything about. Just seeking every good opinion i can find. At what number would you NOT play VA Tech ?
 
I don't see a backdoor cover happening in the SC-UCLA game either. I think it'll be close though. I expect it to be (hope it to be) similar to the UCLA-ASU game.

But, then again, this one's at USC and it could easily be a huge blowout. If this were at Pasadena, I'd be all over the bruins catching 13.5/14.

But, we've played miserably on the road, I don't blame you for selling us.

GL, if UCLA loses I hope it's by 30. Oh, and anything, I would expect USC to have a legit shot at a late cover with a pick-6, or fumble return.
 
Central Michigan -3 -110


I will be back in this thread this evening and get more thoughts up. Also targeting 2 more plays now perhaps. Sorry for delay, busy with NBA and some other things.
 
BTW, had a silly little push on Rutgers last night..was only less than a unit but still hurts...

liking Frezz a bit tonight...back in a few
 
i see god gonna be against a few plays. wanna hear some input on this game though.

Virginia Tech -4 -120 2.5 units

tech was a 2.5 fav vs this same bc team a month ago or so on thursday night. tech was up 10-0 in tha 4th an bc made a unreal comeback to win 14-10. i was on tech in that spot at home an lost, it blew me they didnt cover there but its done an gone. but here in this spot how can this same squad be layin more points on a neutral field in florida than they layed at home in blacksburg in a acc championship game? fuck revenge, cause BC still gonna come out strong an know what they gotta do an hope they dont have to luck out like that an win like that again. layin 4.5 here basically says they should be a 1-1.5 fav @ bc, an a 7-7.5 fav in blacksburg. we already seen a month ago they was -2.5, i jus dont understand how tech is even favord in this game. i got this closer to a pick than -4.5 right now, we might see 5 come gameday.
 
tru said:
i see god gonna be against a few plays. wanna hear some input on this game though.

Virginia Tech -4 -120 2.5 units

tech was a 2.5 fav vs this same bc team a month ago or so on thursday night. tech was up 10-0 in tha 4th an bc made a unreal comeback to win 14-10. i was on tech in that spot at home an lost, it blew me they didnt cover there but its done an gone. but here in this spot how can this same squad be layin more points on a neutral field in florida than they layed at home in blacksburg in a acc championship game? fuck revenge, cause BC still gonna come out strong an know what they gotta do an hope they dont have to luck out like that an win like that again. layin 4.5 here basically says they should be a 1-1.5 fav @ bc, an a 7-7.5 fav in blacksburg. we already seen a month ago they was -2.5, i jus dont understand how tech is even favord in this game. i got this closer to a pick than -4.5 right now, we might see 5 come gameday.
Click to expand...

Remember that the TRUE LINE in the last game was 5. It opened somewhere between 4.5 and 5.5....then it was hit down slowly then Dr. Bob finished it off to the 2.5's and 3's by gametime...

BRB with more..
 
dog im pretty sure it opened at -3 lvsc then opened -3 at pinny 2 hours later, an closed at pinny -3.
 
tru said:
dog im pretty sure it opened at -3 lvsc then opened -3 at pinny 2 hours later, an closed at pinny -3.
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Positive it didn't. I'll find it for yas.

I didn't touch it till Bob finally moved it down to 3...
 
I take that back.

The LVSC opener was a 3...then it got hit up to 5 by the time BM released their numbers. Then it went back down from Monday to Thursday and Bob made it close at what it was...
 
What we need to understand from the first game is VT dominated the trenches. Yes, it was a rainy game with bad conditions but for 56 minutes VT just controlled the game. It was once they went to a prevent defense that they allowede BC to get a rythm. Since that point, BC has only played worse(somewhat) and VT has played better. Glennon has gotten more and more confidence and Taylor is a nice little change of pace. Glennon has had some excellent passing games since with very nice numbers. The VT defense has been mean all year. Take away the LSU game and their numbers are sick. Look at common opponents this year...I'll list it later when I have time but VT has clearly beaten these teams much more handily..for example..Miami 44-14 or whatever when BC was tied with them in early 4th last week. The BC injury list is huge and they simply could not block long enough for Matt Ryan the first game. He was under so much pressure..

The line? Clemosn was favored by 7 at home against BC..bnasically the same line we have here. BC's value has plummeted while Techs has went up since then. I was looking at 6.5 for this game. In all honesty..with how each team has fared the last month. Thats why I had to make a play and expct a double digit victory to be honest.
 
Few things bout that BC-Tech game. VT scored all but 10 points total and actually I have them at 6 points total since that was CLEARLY not a TD and they should of been kicking a field goal. Now the X-Factor is Taylor who is now healthy however, can VT remain unpredictable with him in the game? Now with BC on offense, yes, Ryan had pressure in his face for most of the night and VT does have Vince Hall back however, on a dry surface, I think Ryans hits some of those passes and the WR's will be able to get out of their cuts better. BC missed a few open WR's that were near the endzone and overall the passing game truly slacked until the last 2 drives. With all of that said, I think I like the UNDER here in this game but wouldn't be shocked with a BC win once again.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Few things bout that BC-Tech game. VT scored all but 10 points total and actually I have them at 6 points total since that was CLEARLY not a TD and they should of been kicking a field goal. Now the X-Factor is Taylor who is now healthy however, can VT remain unpredictable with him in the game? Now with BC on offense, yes, Ryan had pressure in his face for most of the night and VT does have Vince Hall back however, on a dry surface, I think Ryans hits some of those passes and the WR's will be able to get out of their cuts better. BC missed a few open WR's that were near the endzone and overall the passing game truly slacked until the last 2 drives. With all of that said, I think I like the UNDER here in this game but wouldn't be shocked with a BC win once again.
Click to expand...

I too give VT only 6 points. They had opportunities though for at least a few other FG's..etc. Remember, on a sloppy track like that the offensive players still know where they are going while defenders do not. I don't always buy into the theory that the offense will be better.

My biggest thing is BC has regressed since that game and VT has gotten so much better. BC won't be able to run and Ryan will have to do quick passes. They would have been shutout if not for the prevent defense.

GL, good thoughts
 
counselor said:
Yup, but I can't get the number lower than 13...
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SJ_Shoulder_Shrug.jpg
 
Fresno looking good.. Need to extend in 2H... Mizzou is solid IMO.. Fox Sports MW had the earlier game on yesterday.. Watched the whole thing again and am even more convinced in Mizzuo.. Okie will not score enough. Temple and maclin are NFL caliber:smiley_acbe:
 
I am hoping Central Michigan gets to a flat three. Also pondering a few totals. Missouri is still a thought as well. I'll have a sexy write-up for the SC-UCLA and VT-BC games tomorrow afternoon.


So where's the write ups yo. Looking forward to your analysis.


:smiley_acbe:
 
AtlHawks said:
I am hoping Central Michigan gets to a flat three. Also pondering a few totals. Missouri is still a thought as well. I'll have a sexy write-up for the SC-UCLA and VT-BC games tomorrow afternoon.


So where's the write ups yo. Looking forward to your analysis.


:smiley_acbe:
Click to expand...

I played poker last night

I'll work on some stuff as I watch the early games
 
AtlHawks said:
I am hoping Central Michigan gets to a flat three. Also pondering a few totals. Missouri is still a thought as well. I'll have a sexy write-up for the SC-UCLA and VT-BC games tomorrow afternoon.


So where's the write ups yo. Looking forward to your analysis.


:smiley_acbe:
Click to expand...

My BC-VT writeup is somewhere in here
 
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