Championship Week: A public service

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
I realize that especially this year, just about everyone has had a less than desirable record ATS, and I know the discussion is what we all come here for, but Good Lord, I went 2-12 last week. It's so bad it has to be disclosed and celebrated. I know everyone has had bad runs, but I would challenge anyone to beat a 2-12 week!! I've been betting heavily on college football for 20 years, and a lot of the years have been good years, so I think all of the bad karma I'm due is coming at once. Who knows if the karma is going to continue this week, but I'm going to give you my thoughts and you can decide.


1. @Penn State -15 v Illinois: I think I've mentioned before that I'm an Illini alum, so I follow them more than any sane football fan would. They fired Lovie, and frankly, I could go either way on that. It was a tough break for him this year because although they didn't cancel any of their games due to their own COVID issues, they were missing huge amounts of players in all but 3 games(Rutgers, Nebraska and Iowa) in which they went 2-1. Ultimately, their schemes, especially on defense, proved to be inferior...Lovie's cover 2 fooled nobody, and they had to rely on copious amounts of turnovers in order to be competitive on that side of the ball. Last week, the phantom injuries/COVID cases/contact tracing hit the Illini again, as 7 starters were surprise last minute scratches...all 4 secondary starters, 2 DL and a LB, which led to Northwestern unsurprisingly running the ball down their throats. In this game, they have absolutely nothing to play for, and there's no telling who will actually be in uniform. Even if they were at full strength, I would be pessimistic about their ability to move the ball on Penn State's D, and they always struggle to stop anybody's passing game (111th in yards per pass attempt). Penn State has been on a roll the past few weeks and still has the motivation to finish strong after a disastrous start. This looks like a 34-10 type game to me.
 
You are a stand up guy. It is difficult to privately lose money on games and feel bad for it, but it is another thing to have everyone see you doing it. I don't think any better or worse for anybody here who posts if they win or lose. I'm happy to see the thread again!
 
Moving back to Friday against my better judgement. Weeknights have not been kind. Well, neither have Saturdays, so why not.

Friday:

2. @Rutgers +6.5 v Nebraska: Both of these teams are in roles that don't suit them ideally. Rutgers has been perfect ATS on the road, 1-3 at home. Nebraska is much better suited for the dog role when little is expected of them, and is ill suited to have to deal with any kind of expectations, i.e. last week when they were never a threat to cover 10ish against Minnesota. (One of the 2 I actually got correct last week). Despite the fact that the Scarlet Knights have been untrustworthy at home and that they might again be stuck with the Art Sitkowski/Johnny Langan experience at QB, I just can't see this Nebraska team being betable on the road as a significant favorite. They've proven time and time again that they can't handle any role in which anything is expected of them, and their defense does not make things tough for opposing offenses, so even if Rutgers is without Noah Vedral, the other two guys should be able to have time to complete a reasonable number of passes. Also, Nebraska has been among the worst in the country on 3rd down, and Rutgers is ranked 26th in that area on defense. Rutgers could easily win this game, so I'll happily gobble up those points in a play against a team that has not been covering as a favorite since Frank Solich was their coach.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Moving back to Friday against my better judgement. Weeknights have not been kind. Well, neither have Saturdays, so why not.

Friday:

2. @Rutgers +6.5 v Nebraska: Both of these teams are in roles that don't suit them ideally. Rutgers has been perfect ATS on the road, 1-3 at home. Nebraska is much better suited for the dog role when little is expected of them, and is ill suited to have to deal with any kind of expectations, i.e. last week when they were never a threat to cover 10ish against Minnesota. (One of the 2 I actually got correct last week). Despite the fact that the Scarlet Knights have been untrustworthy at home and that they might again be stuck with the Art Sitkowski/Johnny Langan experience at QB, I just can't see this Nebraska team being betable on the road as a significant favorite. They've proven time and time again that they can't handle any role in which anything is expected of them, and their defense does not make things tough for opposing offenses, so even if Rutgers is without Noah Vedral, the other two guys should be able to have time to complete a reasonable number of passes. Also, Nebraska has been among the worst in the country on 3rd down, and Rutgers is ranked 26th in that area on defense. Rutgers could easily win this game, so I'll happily gobble up those points in a play against a team that has not been covering as a favorite since Frank Solich was their coach.
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Like this play... Can win it on the field.
 
Was Lovie popular with the players? I don’t typically like to be against teams playing first game with a new coach. Otherwise I would like Penn State in this spot.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I realize that especially this year, just about everyone has had a less than desirable record ATS, and I know the discussion is what we all come here for, but Good Lord, I went 2-12 last week. It's so bad it has to be disclosed and celebrated. I know everyone has had bad runs, but I would challenge anyone to beat a 2-12 week!! I've been betting heavily on college football for 20 years, and a lot of the years have been good years, so I think all of the bad karma I'm due is coming at once. Who knows if the karma is going to continue this week, but I'm going to give you my thoughts and you can decide.


1. @Penn State -15 v Illinois: I think I've mentioned before that I'm an Illini alum, so I follow them more than any sane football fan would. They fired Lovie, and frankly, I could go either way on that. It was a tough break for him this year because although they didn't cancel any of their games due to their own COVID issues, they were missing huge amounts of players in all but 3 games(Rutgers, Nebraska and Iowa) in which they went 2-1. Ultimately, their schemes, especially on defense, proved to be inferior...Lovie's cover 2 fooled nobody, and they had to rely on copious amounts of turnovers in order to be competitive on that side of the ball. Last week, the phantom injuries/COVID cases/contact tracing hit the Illini again, as 7 starters were surprise last minute scratches...all 4 secondary starters, 2 DL and a LB, which led to Northwestern unsurprisingly running the ball down their throats. In this game, they have absolutely nothing to play for, and there's no telling who will actually be in uniform. Even if they were at full strength, I would be pessimistic about their ability to move the ball on Penn State's D, and they always struggle to stop anybody's passing game (111th in yards per pass attempt). Penn State has been on a roll the past few weeks and still has the motivation to finish strong after a disastrous start. This looks like a 34-10 type game to me.
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This write up is fantastic. The Burger King on Green St.
 
If it’s any consolation hearing you went 2-12 made me feel a tad better about having a really bad weekend myself! I can’t beat your 2-12 but I did go 1 for a bunch on nfl! My whole weekend was shit! Lol. Shit happens, shake it off, there some good bets this weekend!! No better way to forget a bad week than having a great 1!!
 
Br@ssknux said:
Yes he was. They really have nothing to play for here IMO
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I tend to agree, I thought it sucked they fired him. He had those kids trending the right way last year imo. Tough to hold this year against any coach and Illini had lot of covid problems early on. I can’t imagine this a case where firing the coach gets a uptick in play cause by all accounts they loved lovie!
 
2daBank said:
I really liked canes and uva! What they lose by about 70-80 combined? Lol
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LOL I was on the Canes last week because UNC was so unpredictable and had played so bad on the road. That was a funny one. In that game, if you take away the last drive when UNC was running out the clock and the 10 second drive at the end of the 1st half, UNC gained 778 of 810 possible yards. Perhaps the worst performance in a decade on the defensive end by anyone.
 
Br@ssknux said:
LOL I was on the Canes last week because UNC was so unpredictable and had played so bad on the road. That was a funny one. In that game, if you take away the last drive when UNC was running out the clock and the 10 second drive at the end of the 1st half, UNC gained 778 of 810 possible yards. Perhaps the worst performance in a decade on the defensive end by anyone.
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omfg, as if my perception could have been any worse!!! lol

this what I posted before the game, “in a game that looks like a shootout give me the team I think can get a few stops”!! Then I proceeded to post all the crazy point totals unc had allowed vs middling acc teams! Whoops, lmfao

Not sure I’ve ever seen a power 5 school get physically dominated in that way (outside like vandy or some other bottom feeder against bama). Certainly not a team ranked in the top 20!! It took all of 3 drives before canes defenders started making business decisions, it looked far more like a top 10 school facing one the little sisters of the poor in one those money grab games than a matchup of ranked teams playing for a New Years 6 bowl! Never would have guessed we see anything like that in a game you would have thought had meaning to both sides!!! Only bright spot it was so obvious canes quit that I ended up live betting Unc -20.5 right before half I think, lol. So I recouped some my losses. For some reason I Was scarred of a polish middle if I bet to much so only got half my bet back. Lol
 
Here another funny anecdote. So after being on canes last week who allowed what 550 on the ground that overtook my Kent st vs Buffalo bet which was the record for most rush yards a team I bet had given up with 516!! So 2 bets I’ve made that my teams allowed a combined 1000+ Rushing yards!! In other words a great season for a running back!!! Feel better yet? lol
 
Gl this week, as someone not well versed enough in ncaa football, I really appreciate reading your threads. Thx Brass
 
3. Oregon +3 v USC: USC is undefeated, but they have been extremely fortunate in more than one instance this year, most sickeningly, last week when they delivered one of the worst bears of the year for me by beating UCLA by more than a FG in a game they were certainly the wrong side. They gave up 500+ yards to UCLA last week and don't forget, only barely slipped by Arizona a month ago, 34-30. They are due for some bad karma, and Oregon, though disappointing this year, will have no trouble moving the ball on them. USC, despite their success, cant run the ball and Oregon comes in equally adept in both phases on offense. I actually have Oregon as the better team when you match them up statistically, especially the Duck offense against the USC defense. I'll take the FG here...USC is due for some evening out, so to speak.
 
4. Northwestern +18.5 v Ohio State: I actually got this at 20.5 but didn't have a chance to write it up before the line dropped amid rumors that OSU will be missing some key players due to COVID. Ultimately I don't know that those 2 points matter, but you certainly can't get NU at 20.5 anymore. I look Northwestern here because this seems to be more of a merit line for OSU based on things they have done in the past. IN addition, this Northwestern defense is absolutely legit by pretty much any measurement. They are 6th in yards per play against, 1st in yard per pass attempt against, 12th on 3rd down, 2nd in FEI rankings, and 1st in F+(DVOA), so we've got both the traditional and analytical measures covered. Also, there are some alarming things about Ohio State that might suggest that they are closer to the pack than they were in previous years,. For example, they rank 58th in pass defense and only 54th in sack rate on defense. This means Peyton Ramsey will have time to be somewhat comfortable. Although NW looks like they have a terrible passing game statistically, Ramsey is competent and he has receivers that can get open in Riley Lees and Ramaud Bowman, Another thing is that on offense, Ohio State has been prone to negative plays regardless of who they've played, and this is a defense that not only resembles, but is superior to the defense Justin Fields looked bad against, the Indiana Hoosiers. The Cats are well coached and play good enough defense to where covering a big number like this is going to be a major chore, and might require a non offensive TD or 2 to get it done.
 
5. Iowa State +6 v Oklahoma: I'm skeptical of Iowa State, but typically not as a dog in this general area. Ultimately, these 2 teams are extremely evenly matched. Iowa State has the edge on both sides of the ball in the running game, and the opposite is true in Oklahoma's favor in the pass game, although I do think Iowa State can put pressure on Spencer Rattler. We also have a Senior v Freshman matchup at QB, and Rattler has been prone to turnovers, so in a game that appears to be as evenly matched as this one, that makes a sizable difference. The last thing I'll say about this one is that I see it as a tossup straight up, whichever of these teams was getting points would be the side I played, so when the number is as much as 6, I consider it a no brainer to take the dog.
 
6. Texas A&M -14 @Tennessee: There's a lot to cause a bettor to give the stink eye to the Aggies when they are favored by as much as this, but I would suggest that is only true when they are at home. The Aggies have covered all of their road games this year, all of them in a favorite's role. After a somewhat promising start, the Vols have kind of fallen apart. HC Justin Pruitt seems to outwardly despise QB Justin Guarantano, and their offense has been broken for weeks. I don't show that Tennessee has any semblance of an edge based in any important category, including some that are total mismatches like 3rd downs (A&M 3rd in converting them, Vols 102nd in allowing them, Vols 117th in converting them while A&M is 29th in allowing them. A&M should be motivated because they still have an outside chance of making the playoff.
 
I myself am going to have Northwestern today. I'm a little scared which is pretty natural when stepping in front of a team of OSUs caliber with a limited offensive team like NW. taking the points here almost seems counterintuitive, but good luck to us.
 
Thanks inZane^^^. I was going to lay off that one. Obviously paying some sort of premium on the ASU side coming off that performance last week, but the lack of a passing game even with Gebbia along with a leaky defense kept me off OSU.
 
7. Notre Dame +10.5: v Clemson: I totally understand why people are playing Clemson here. When you see a different version of the same story over and over, you tend to have the expectation that it will continue. The story I'm talking about is Notre Dame(or Oklahoma) showing up in a scenario like this and shitting the bed. I realize that this isn't an actual CFP game, but it's kind of acting like one, and ND has not fared well i these postseason scenarios before. Also, you can say that Clemson has the motivational edge, since they lost the first game, and ND has a very strong chance to make the playoff regardless of what happens here. But assuming those things is all highly subjective, and ignores the fundamental handicap of this game. Also, once the game starts and the adrenaline gets flowing, I think a lot of the motivational angles kind of go out the window. Notre Dame has heard people assuming a Clemson win here for about 3 weeks, and they'll be aware of the spread. Trevor Lawrence and a lort of defensive starters will be back for Clemson, but you can't sugar coat that ND physically dominated the line of scrimmage in that first game. ND had 200+ yards, with 5+ yards per carry while Clemson ended up with 34 yards on 33 carries, and Travis Etienne couldn't get anything going for what was probably the first time in his career. Also, don't forget what ND did to that UNC offense 3 weeks ago, which in context now looks like even a more remarkable feat. When you match these teams up side by side, they are a dead heat...the only area where either team has a sizable advantage is the ND run D against the Clemson rushing attack, which we already saw play out. 10.5 points in this game is too much, and although I definitely see the rationale for expecting a Clemson laugher, you really can't justify it based on what has actually happened on the field this year.
 
8. San Jose State +7 v Boise State: I really just have to give the nod here to SJSU....this is another line giving deference to previous results more so than actual performance in 2020. San Jose has been very solid on both sides of the ball...they haven't done it with any gimmicks. Offensively on a per play basis, they are in the top 20 both running it and throwing it, and their defense has been strong as well. I actually see a major edge for SJSU, believe it or not at the line of scrimmage, as Boise has struggled to run it and stop the run, and I see edges for SJSU on both sides of the ball in sack rate vs sack rate allowed. I'm concerned because both teams do an about face from their usual performance on 3rd down(Boise improves, San Jose falls off), but on paper this looks like a pick em to me. Also, Boise is extremely reliant on Hank Bachmeier offensively. If he gets hurt or has some other hiccup, Boise turns into a pumpkin.
 
One additional thought: I have spent the entire year avoiding the urge to be contrarian and bet against Alabama, and I'm glad I did because they are a freight train ATS. However, I would have a hard time remembering a bigger case of recency bias than this game this week with Florida catching 17 points with that offense. Nevertheless, I am not betting against Alabama.
 
Br@ssknux said:
One additional thought: I have spent the entire year avoiding the urge to be contrarian and bet against Alabama, and I'm glad I did because they are a freight train ATS. However, I would have a hard time remembering a bigger case of recency bias than this game this week with Florida catching 17 points with that offense. Nevertheless, I am not betting against Alabama.
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I’m proud of myself that it only took me half the year before jumping on and taking the free bama 1st half money every week! They can’t inflate those spreads enough to stop the freight train that is bama! 1st half -10 and team total over all day! I do agree Gators will put up points so full game over and bama -17 as well! Bombs away!
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. San Jose State +7 v Boise State: I really just have to give the nod here to SJSU....this is another line giving deference to previous results more so than actual performance in 2020. San Jose has been very solid on both sides of the ball...they haven't done it with any gimmicks. Offensively on a per play basis, they are in the top 20 both running it and throwing it, and their defense has been strong as well. I actually see a major edge for SJSU, believe it or not at the line of scrimmage, as Boise has struggled to run it and stop the run, and I see edges for SJSU on both sides of the ball in sack rate vs sack rate allowed. I'm concerned because both teams do an about face from their usual performance on 3rd down(Boise improves, San Jose falls off), but on paper this looks like a pick em to me. Also, Boise is extremely reliant on Hank Bachmeier offensively. If he gets hurt or has some other hiccup, Boise turns into a pumpkin.
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this is just like last week a case of sjst just not being a name brand imo. Ppl refuse to give them their due which fine by me as been cashing tickets with this team for several years now!! I took the points but don’t even think we need them, sjst wins this game! I think this game and the isu/sooners game are lines made off reputation and not the actual teams on the field, I seriously believe iowa st and San Jose st are the better teams!! Let’s end this bitch strong and forget any the awful before it! Good luck today!
 
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