One of my favorite days of the year for the last 20 years or so. There is something special about this particular day in the NFL calendar. I highly prefer this to Super Bowl Sunday. we are utilizing home stadiums, and this is about football. Two weeks from now will be about everything else, and some football. Simply put, this is the good stuff tomorrow. Each team has a great storyline heading into a potential Super Bowl berth...
First of all, we have a 49ers team that was here a year ago albeit without a QB for most of the game. That was surreal last year, watching Christian taking snaps at times. I've never seen anything like that in the NFL. That wasn't fair, period. But things happen in life. This Niners team has been one of the very best the last handful of years. They had a double-digit lead four years ago in the Kansas City game and blew it. They also lost a close NFC 'ship game to the Rams a few years back. Simply put, this team is experienced and ready. Is this their last chance?
The Baltimore Ravens have been a model of consistency. They have made the playoffs 5 of the last 6 years. The Harbaugh era has been split into two parts. The championship team behind Flacco and now this Lamar Jackson team. They are analytics dream. The wild thing to myself, well two them; This is their first hosting of a championship game in 50 years. Also, 31 other teams could have had Lamar Jackson. Think about that. I'll readily admit that early in the 2022 season I was hoping that would be the Lion move at the QB position. He's good.
The Kansas City Chiefs are the modern 'dynasty' of sorts. Last year's comeback win was huge to help validate this team. This team simply doesn't end their season until one of the last 3 games under Mahomes. Last week was his first road playoff game, and he acquitted himself well as always. This is a different Chiefs team now, built on defense and more power football. They adapt. Two more wins and we could see Andy leave on top.
Last, but not least, is the greatest storyline you can think of. The Detroit Lions. The last time this franchise was in an NFC Championship game, I was getting ready for 3rd semester in 7th grade. C'mon, that is wild. That year, the Lions obliterated the Cowboys at home before making the trek to RFK to face a damn good Redskins team. The Lions had entered the 1991 season facing Washington to start the year. They lost 45-0 on Sunday Night Football. They then ended their season losing 41-10 at the same venue to the eventual champions of the NFL. That was a depressing day, and we've not come close to having that opportunity since then.
So, here we are....
Back to the Lions and Niners in a bit...
The early game has seen some interesting line movement. Circa was posting a 4.5 just a little bit ago, which is a very strong number. There are a handful of books that I respect when they take a stand on an event, and they are one. Unfortunately, I am rooting for Kansas City in this game. Why? I placed a future on them before Week 17 or 18. I was starting to look at the potential paths for them (Miami in cold, bad coach in Buffalo potentially) and figured that being in the final 4 was within reach. Trust me, I do not need 2 weeks of the Kelce bros and Swift filling up my timeline. The Ravens are fun to watch, and I'd love for them to have a shot.
As far as the game... I honestly don't have anything betting-wise that sticks out(except one prop). I am looking at a few smaller prop bets. I do tend to think the over is in play, but I need to see how KC is defending Lamar and how Baltimore is reacting to fully get on board there. These are two really good, well-coached teams. This is a classic conference final. Nothing much more for me to say here.
So, we all saw the Green Bay and San Franciso game last week. We know this Niners teams has some faults unlike their last few years on defense. They can be had at times, while also making great stands at others. A lot of their defensive stats are skewed due to leading games a lot. The rushing stats are the biggest one here. I've watched a lot of SF football the last 5 years. I have had futures on them in 2019, 2021 and 2022. They have broken my hearts. One of the big issues is Kyle. I would not have him in my top echelon of crunch time coaches. He's made too many questionable decisions, He is a great offensive mind though. Back to last week -- Purdy made some big-time throws late in that game. He could have had 2-3 interceptions in that contest but kept his head on his shoulders. Listen, he's somewhat a product of the system and somewhat of himself. I do think that this is EASILY the best team for HIM. I don't think he would be anywhere near an MVP candidate if he was playing for most other teams. There is nothing wrong with that. I just want to get that out of the way, because this is always such a hot topic. Anyways, this paragraph is all over the place -- so my big thing after last week-- Hunt and I both said after that game went final we expect San Francisco to play their best game of the year next week (tomorrow). We've seen this scenario so many times. A team that should have lost a game, played below their expectations, rebounds in grand style the next playoff game.
Will that happen? I hope not, but we shall see.
On the Lion side, a few things here (some already mentioned in Cavs article)...
They need to be patient and run the ball.
They need to protect Jared as well as they have all year.
Jonah Jackson out for the game -- surgery
Ragnow with 4 injuries
Anzalone with broken ribs
Ertz was signed and practiced at the end of the week.
They are banged up, but most teams are.
Back to the run game... they need 26+ runs to have a chance in this game, I can look at a box score after the game and see 20 RB carries and I'll know Frisco won by double-digits.
Defensively though is the key. I hope they are VERY aggressive early at getting to Purdy. An early fumble or interception sets up so much. He is a rhythm guy, but if you can get into his head a little bit all bets are off.
The Niners will move the ball in the air. This Detroit defense gives up passing yards. They make plays though and defend the run very well. CMC will get his, but they hopefully will make him work for it, say 20-84 kind of stat line would be great.
Let's talk venue. Yes, this is outside. Thankfully the weather will be excellent. Yes, Detroit hasn't played outside much the last few months. They have won games on the road in the following venues this year:
Those first 3 are all playoff teams.
Alright, Goff time. I know half this forum hates him with a passion. You know who you are. I get it. I have not always been a huge Goff guy. I warmed up to this finally in the 2nd half of last year. He is what he is, a WINNER and a heckuva gamer. Does he have limitations? Sure. Do I trust him tomorrow? You know what, as long as he is set up for success, I do. Could he throw a few picks and get laughed out of the stadium? Anything is possible. Bottom line is, this guy knows how to win. Let's see what he has tomorrow.
Alright, I know you all have skimmed this looking for bets.
What I have played:
I have a few other props I lean via reading the forum here and some friends have talked up. Shall see.
Total will be stalked in Baltimore.
Quick explanation on my plays...
Kittle is the kind of guy that Purdy really trusts. They have plenty of options, but I expect that he will once again have a few big chunk plays...
Gibbs should see a handful of dumpoffs from Goff as the pressure is coming from that Niners defensive line. I would think there will be a designed play or two as well...
Rice has surpassed this number in 6 of the last 8 games. He is a star and I he'll have to play a big part in this game. I think we'll see more than enough targets to get over this number pretty easily...
Lastly, the team total. This honestly hasn't been on my radar till today. Why? I had a lengthy discussion today with my guy. He really made a good point. The Lions haven't come this far to quit. They could get blown out early, they are going to fight till the end. I agree. I just don't see them quitting. I think, and hope, that Ben will have a heckuva gameplan here. This can easily be backdoored, hopefully it doesn't come to that.
My hot take tomorrow -- a few crucial 4th downs in the NFC Championship game during the meat of the game really determines who goes on to win. Detroit isn't here to kick FG's.
I'm excited. I honestly am. What is my prediction? Hey, I said I expect SF to play their very best game. I just hope Detroit can make this a 4th quarter game and let some doubt creep into their heads.
Head over heart though.
Niners 28-24
Yes, have leaned under earlier in the week but think it's too tight towards the number.
Good luck all, Go Lions.
Chiefs and Lions BOTH win outright tomorrow I'll be a very happy futures player!
First of all, we have a 49ers team that was here a year ago albeit without a QB for most of the game. That was surreal last year, watching Christian taking snaps at times. I've never seen anything like that in the NFL. That wasn't fair, period. But things happen in life. This Niners team has been one of the very best the last handful of years. They had a double-digit lead four years ago in the Kansas City game and blew it. They also lost a close NFC 'ship game to the Rams a few years back. Simply put, this team is experienced and ready. Is this their last chance?
The Baltimore Ravens have been a model of consistency. They have made the playoffs 5 of the last 6 years. The Harbaugh era has been split into two parts. The championship team behind Flacco and now this Lamar Jackson team. They are analytics dream. The wild thing to myself, well two them; This is their first hosting of a championship game in 50 years. Also, 31 other teams could have had Lamar Jackson. Think about that. I'll readily admit that early in the 2022 season I was hoping that would be the Lion move at the QB position. He's good.
The Kansas City Chiefs are the modern 'dynasty' of sorts. Last year's comeback win was huge to help validate this team. This team simply doesn't end their season until one of the last 3 games under Mahomes. Last week was his first road playoff game, and he acquitted himself well as always. This is a different Chiefs team now, built on defense and more power football. They adapt. Two more wins and we could see Andy leave on top.
Last, but not least, is the greatest storyline you can think of. The Detroit Lions. The last time this franchise was in an NFC Championship game, I was getting ready for 3rd semester in 7th grade. C'mon, that is wild. That year, the Lions obliterated the Cowboys at home before making the trek to RFK to face a damn good Redskins team. The Lions had entered the 1991 season facing Washington to start the year. They lost 45-0 on Sunday Night Football. They then ended their season losing 41-10 at the same venue to the eventual champions of the NFL. That was a depressing day, and we've not come close to having that opportunity since then.
So, here we are....
Back to the Lions and Niners in a bit...
The early game has seen some interesting line movement. Circa was posting a 4.5 just a little bit ago, which is a very strong number. There are a handful of books that I respect when they take a stand on an event, and they are one. Unfortunately, I am rooting for Kansas City in this game. Why? I placed a future on them before Week 17 or 18. I was starting to look at the potential paths for them (Miami in cold, bad coach in Buffalo potentially) and figured that being in the final 4 was within reach. Trust me, I do not need 2 weeks of the Kelce bros and Swift filling up my timeline. The Ravens are fun to watch, and I'd love for them to have a shot.
As far as the game... I honestly don't have anything betting-wise that sticks out(except one prop). I am looking at a few smaller prop bets. I do tend to think the over is in play, but I need to see how KC is defending Lamar and how Baltimore is reacting to fully get on board there. These are two really good, well-coached teams. This is a classic conference final. Nothing much more for me to say here.
So, we all saw the Green Bay and San Franciso game last week. We know this Niners teams has some faults unlike their last few years on defense. They can be had at times, while also making great stands at others. A lot of their defensive stats are skewed due to leading games a lot. The rushing stats are the biggest one here. I've watched a lot of SF football the last 5 years. I have had futures on them in 2019, 2021 and 2022. They have broken my hearts. One of the big issues is Kyle. I would not have him in my top echelon of crunch time coaches. He's made too many questionable decisions, He is a great offensive mind though. Back to last week -- Purdy made some big-time throws late in that game. He could have had 2-3 interceptions in that contest but kept his head on his shoulders. Listen, he's somewhat a product of the system and somewhat of himself. I do think that this is EASILY the best team for HIM. I don't think he would be anywhere near an MVP candidate if he was playing for most other teams. There is nothing wrong with that. I just want to get that out of the way, because this is always such a hot topic. Anyways, this paragraph is all over the place -- so my big thing after last week-- Hunt and I both said after that game went final we expect San Francisco to play their best game of the year next week (tomorrow). We've seen this scenario so many times. A team that should have lost a game, played below their expectations, rebounds in grand style the next playoff game.
Will that happen? I hope not, but we shall see.
On the Lion side, a few things here (some already mentioned in Cavs article)...
They need to be patient and run the ball.
They need to protect Jared as well as they have all year.
Jonah Jackson out for the game -- surgery
Ragnow with 4 injuries
Anzalone with broken ribs
Ertz was signed and practiced at the end of the week.
They are banged up, but most teams are.
Back to the run game... they need 26+ runs to have a chance in this game, I can look at a box score after the game and see 20 RB carries and I'll know Frisco won by double-digits.
Defensively though is the key. I hope they are VERY aggressive early at getting to Purdy. An early fumble or interception sets up so much. He is a rhythm guy, but if you can get into his head a little bit all bets are off.
The Niners will move the ball in the air. This Detroit defense gives up passing yards. They make plays though and defend the run very well. CMC will get his, but they hopefully will make him work for it, say 20-84 kind of stat line would be great.
Let's talk venue. Yes, this is outside. Thankfully the weather will be excellent. Yes, Detroit hasn't played outside much the last few months. They have won games on the road in the following venues this year:
Arrowhead
Lambeau
Raymond James
SoFi (Chargers)
Minnesota Stadium
Superdome
Those first 3 are all playoff teams.
Alright, Goff time. I know half this forum hates him with a passion. You know who you are. I get it. I have not always been a huge Goff guy. I warmed up to this finally in the 2nd half of last year. He is what he is, a WINNER and a heckuva gamer. Does he have limitations? Sure. Do I trust him tomorrow? You know what, as long as he is set up for success, I do. Could he throw a few picks and get laughed out of the stadium? Anything is possible. Bottom line is, this guy knows how to win. Let's see what he has tomorrow.
Alright, I know you all have skimmed this looking for bets.
What I have played:
Kittle yard over (recommend anything 64.5 or better, played mine earlier in week so not posting the #)
Lions TT 021.5 -115 (currently available)
Rashee Rice O60.5 receiving yards -125
Jamhyr Gibbs O 23.5 receiving yards -123
I have a few other props I lean via reading the forum here and some friends have talked up. Shall see.
Total will be stalked in Baltimore.
Quick explanation on my plays...
Kittle is the kind of guy that Purdy really trusts. They have plenty of options, but I expect that he will once again have a few big chunk plays...
Gibbs should see a handful of dumpoffs from Goff as the pressure is coming from that Niners defensive line. I would think there will be a designed play or two as well...
Rice has surpassed this number in 6 of the last 8 games. He is a star and I he'll have to play a big part in this game. I think we'll see more than enough targets to get over this number pretty easily...
Lastly, the team total. This honestly hasn't been on my radar till today. Why? I had a lengthy discussion today with my guy. He really made a good point. The Lions haven't come this far to quit. They could get blown out early, they are going to fight till the end. I agree. I just don't see them quitting. I think, and hope, that Ben will have a heckuva gameplan here. This can easily be backdoored, hopefully it doesn't come to that.
My hot take tomorrow -- a few crucial 4th downs in the NFC Championship game during the meat of the game really determines who goes on to win. Detroit isn't here to kick FG's.
I'm excited. I honestly am. What is my prediction? Hey, I said I expect SF to play their very best game. I just hope Detroit can make this a 4th quarter game and let some doubt creep into their heads.
Head over heart though.
Niners 28-24
Yes, have leaned under earlier in the week but think it's too tight towards the number.
Good luck all, Go Lions.
Chiefs and Lions BOTH win outright tomorrow I'll be a very happy futures player!
