Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
All right, fine, I'll bite.
Last Sunday I said that there's no way I can bet against Baltimore from here on out—which is probably only one more game, but it's true.
Not only that, looking at the board I feel I have to bet them this weekend and here's why.
In the NFL there are some teams that just match up well with other teams. The easiest example is the Giants vs. the Pats. They've proven over the last few years that this matchup is essentially a three point game. It's just the way they play each other, or perhaps more specifically, how the Giants play NE's offense.
Baltimore vs. NE is another one of these matchups. Baltimore knows how to defense NE. These two teams play each other tight. Their past meetings have proven it. To me this a three point game, seven at best—you know, barring turnovers, etc.
So I'm betting the Ravens. Now, had they set this line where I think it should be (-6.5/7), I might have laid off. (You can't make this game less than Pats -4 based on the Broncos/Ravens line last week. You'd get buried with NE money. You'd still get a ton at 6.5, but I think it would even out at 7. So maybe I'm a sucker who takes what I find an inflated line, but I think it's off by two points here.)
What I don't like for the Ravens are the same things I didn't like last week. Their defense is simply old. It's a step slower than it was in the past and good QBs should eat them up. In fact, I would argue that but for Peyton Manning being the Peyton Manning we're all so used to in the playoffs, he kind of did eat them up. Especially in the first half.
However, two things balance this out to put me on Baltimore. First, the Ravens get an extra day of rest this week. So the exhaustion from these last two games should be tempered somewhat. Second, and more importantly, no Gronk for the Pats. To me this is huge, and I'm a fan of Aaron Hernandez.
But I think what Gronk does as far as really stretching you out on D could have been what breaks the Ravens' tired old backs. Without him I think they're in this game.
Then all the emotional nonsense, Jesus is now a Ravens fan, Billy Cundiff is selling insurance, blah blah blah.
Ravens +8.5 - 1 unit
Ravens ML - .5 unit
I'm also going to tease the Falcons game. I have trouble seeing Atlanta get blown out at home, especially after they will spend this week hearing about how they suck and don't deserve to even be in this game. I actually see this game being close pretty much the whole way through.
Additionally, I have trouble seeing these teams stay under 20 each. Kap's going to get his. He's good for at least 14 in my book which makes them as a team feel like 20 is very attainable. Thus, given that I see SF getting into the endzone at least twice, I think Atlanta is forced to be less conservative than normal. And obviously if Atlanta gets down they're not going to just lay down, they'll ask Ryan to throw them back into the game.
I'm going with 24-23 Niners or 23-20 Falcons, ergo:
Ravens +14.5/Falcons +10/Falcons & Niners over 43 - .5 unit
Good luck this weekend everyone.
Last Sunday I said that there's no way I can bet against Baltimore from here on out—which is probably only one more game, but it's true.
Not only that, looking at the board I feel I have to bet them this weekend and here's why.
In the NFL there are some teams that just match up well with other teams. The easiest example is the Giants vs. the Pats. They've proven over the last few years that this matchup is essentially a three point game. It's just the way they play each other, or perhaps more specifically, how the Giants play NE's offense.
Baltimore vs. NE is another one of these matchups. Baltimore knows how to defense NE. These two teams play each other tight. Their past meetings have proven it. To me this a three point game, seven at best—you know, barring turnovers, etc.
So I'm betting the Ravens. Now, had they set this line where I think it should be (-6.5/7), I might have laid off. (You can't make this game less than Pats -4 based on the Broncos/Ravens line last week. You'd get buried with NE money. You'd still get a ton at 6.5, but I think it would even out at 7. So maybe I'm a sucker who takes what I find an inflated line, but I think it's off by two points here.)
What I don't like for the Ravens are the same things I didn't like last week. Their defense is simply old. It's a step slower than it was in the past and good QBs should eat them up. In fact, I would argue that but for Peyton Manning being the Peyton Manning we're all so used to in the playoffs, he kind of did eat them up. Especially in the first half.
However, two things balance this out to put me on Baltimore. First, the Ravens get an extra day of rest this week. So the exhaustion from these last two games should be tempered somewhat. Second, and more importantly, no Gronk for the Pats. To me this is huge, and I'm a fan of Aaron Hernandez.
But I think what Gronk does as far as really stretching you out on D could have been what breaks the Ravens' tired old backs. Without him I think they're in this game.
Then all the emotional nonsense, Jesus is now a Ravens fan, Billy Cundiff is selling insurance, blah blah blah.
Ravens +8.5 - 1 unit
Ravens ML - .5 unit
I'm also going to tease the Falcons game. I have trouble seeing Atlanta get blown out at home, especially after they will spend this week hearing about how they suck and don't deserve to even be in this game. I actually see this game being close pretty much the whole way through.
Additionally, I have trouble seeing these teams stay under 20 each. Kap's going to get his. He's good for at least 14 in my book which makes them as a team feel like 20 is very attainable. Thus, given that I see SF getting into the endzone at least twice, I think Atlanta is forced to be less conservative than normal. And obviously if Atlanta gets down they're not going to just lay down, they'll ask Ryan to throw them back into the game.
I'm going with 24-23 Niners or 23-20 Falcons, ergo:
Ravens +14.5/Falcons +10/Falcons & Niners over 43 - .5 unit
Good luck this weekend everyone.
