scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Frisco/ATL Under 48.5 two units
This number probably rises and I plan on getting at least one more unit at current price or better, but covering 47 and 48 are huge here so I'll bite now. Being careful not to overreact to events that unfolded the week before are always tough this time of year. I've been high on Frisco since last season, and I love the way they matchup with ATL, but ignoring what Atlanta does in this stadium is not a way to make money. I'll pass on the side and get involved with the total.
Last week we saw Kaepernick light up a Green Bay defense with a score that few could have seen coming. This week a QB playing his first road playoff game goes across the country to do it in a dome. I'll pay to see him do even half of what he did last week. And Harbaugh is no idiot. He was a fumbled punt away from playing in the Super Bowl last year. I don't think he's going to ask his QB to carry the team on his shoulders in this one. And he shouldn't have to.
Atlanta's rushing defense is ranked 19th in the NFL. If Harbaugh has half a brain, he'll run Gore until his legs fall off, then run James. Limit Kaepernick's chances to throw picks and get rattled on the road. And they should have no trouble doing it. San Francisco is 4th in the NFL in time of possession. If you are wondering about the other side of this equation - the Falcons are 9th. Both bode well for an under.
Matchup wise - I like San Francisco's defense against the run and the pass. They are the most complete team in the playoffs and are particularly good at defending the pass. This is big against the Falcons as they have what I think are the best passing targets in the NFL. Niners pass D ranked 5th best in the NFL in passing yards per game. Which brings me to my next point. ....
Yards don't always equal points. Atlanta's pass defense is 27th in the NFL in yards per game. Their run defense is 19th in the NFL in yards per game. Yet this team is ranked 4th in the NFL in scoring defense. San Francisco is ranked 3rd. These are numbers I really like. Everyone shits on Atlanta's D, but they are the team hosting this game, and they are the definition of a bend/don't break defense.
I know there are plenty who will say I'm nuts playing an under in this game based on both teams box scores from last week. But look at what ATL has done all season with these over inflated totals in the Georgia Dome: Falcon home unders during the regular season are 7-1.
I think this will be one hell of a football game with Frisco pounding away at ATL the whole game. Problem is, ATL has the ability to come from behind and make big plays in the passing game. The biggest question for me here is if ATL will be able to slow down SF's run when it counts and keep themselves in the game long enough to have a chance to steal it at the end with their WR's and Tony G.
This number probably rises and I plan on getting at least one more unit at current price or better, but covering 47 and 48 are huge here so I'll bite now. Being careful not to overreact to events that unfolded the week before are always tough this time of year. I've been high on Frisco since last season, and I love the way they matchup with ATL, but ignoring what Atlanta does in this stadium is not a way to make money. I'll pass on the side and get involved with the total.
Last week we saw Kaepernick light up a Green Bay defense with a score that few could have seen coming. This week a QB playing his first road playoff game goes across the country to do it in a dome. I'll pay to see him do even half of what he did last week. And Harbaugh is no idiot. He was a fumbled punt away from playing in the Super Bowl last year. I don't think he's going to ask his QB to carry the team on his shoulders in this one. And he shouldn't have to.
Atlanta's rushing defense is ranked 19th in the NFL. If Harbaugh has half a brain, he'll run Gore until his legs fall off, then run James. Limit Kaepernick's chances to throw picks and get rattled on the road. And they should have no trouble doing it. San Francisco is 4th in the NFL in time of possession. If you are wondering about the other side of this equation - the Falcons are 9th. Both bode well for an under.
Matchup wise - I like San Francisco's defense against the run and the pass. They are the most complete team in the playoffs and are particularly good at defending the pass. This is big against the Falcons as they have what I think are the best passing targets in the NFL. Niners pass D ranked 5th best in the NFL in passing yards per game. Which brings me to my next point. ....
Yards don't always equal points. Atlanta's pass defense is 27th in the NFL in yards per game. Their run defense is 19th in the NFL in yards per game. Yet this team is ranked 4th in the NFL in scoring defense. San Francisco is ranked 3rd. These are numbers I really like. Everyone shits on Atlanta's D, but they are the team hosting this game, and they are the definition of a bend/don't break defense.
I know there are plenty who will say I'm nuts playing an under in this game based on both teams box scores from last week. But look at what ATL has done all season with these over inflated totals in the Georgia Dome: Falcon home unders during the regular season are 7-1.
I think this will be one hell of a football game with Frisco pounding away at ATL the whole game. Problem is, ATL has the ability to come from behind and make big plays in the passing game. The biggest question for me here is if ATL will be able to slow down SF's run when it counts and keep themselves in the game long enough to have a chance to steal it at the end with their WR's and Tony G.
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