Champions League semis

Satyr

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
Short comments this time. I already wrote a lot about both teams in the other thread, and I took Man U to win CL @ 9.40, but considering recent injuries and the fact that Milan timed their form perfectly for the end of the season and have a ton of experienced players in the team, I'm thinking Man U players are just a bit too tired and too pressured at this point. I believe we'll see an interesting game with Milan snatching a draw.
Low stakes.
3 units on X (3.08 @ Pinnacle)


I'll contribute more before tomorrow's clash featuring my Reds.

GL.
:cheers:
 
You almost had the draw but Rooney had other ideas. brilliant goal in added time.

tough luck
 
Chelsea/Liverpool seems to have uNDER written all over it.

But...............I am sure that the uNDER is so "publicky" that it is doomed to fall on its face.

:(
 
Yep, just checked 5 Dimes:

u2.5 -189!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
u1.5 +158
u.5 +531

u1.5 is probably the right side. If it goes u2.5, final will be 1 nil or scoreless draw.

The u2.5 is the dumb money bet. Too much chalk. If it goes u2.5, it ain't going to be 2 nil or 1 all.

But then again, who the fuck knows? I damn sure don't.
 
First of, let me start by saying I'm not a part of the Champions league betting hype. Most of my CL bets are taken somewhere around first knockout round and generally I rarely stake big here, mostly because there's huge money involved here and the books know what to do, the prices are set accordingly, and in most cases it's rather unpredictable.

Proceeding to tonight's clash:

A very tough game, no doubts. First thing pops into mind is of course the under. However the odds are adjusted already, and taking under 2 for less than even money isn't the best idea there if you ask me.

Having said that, I will take a stab at 0:0 exact score, 7.00, 1 unit.
Why? Because both coaches would be satisfied with it.

Kind of a paradox but we've seen that already 2 years ago. From Mourinho's point of view 0:0 means he didn't concede a goal, scoring 1 next week would mean Liverpool has to score 2.

Benitez of course, wants to stay undefeated. So expect a tactical game with a lot of covering. Remember the scene of Barca defenders passing the ball between themselves for 30 seconds, even though they had a result to chase?

Simply, there was no solution, Liverpool are damn strong in the back, but so are Chelsea. One thing that goes in favor of the Reds is Chelsea's packed schedule, and battered and bruised lineup. They have Ballack, Robben, Carvalho, Essien on the sidelines. Even though Ballack actually screwed their strategy a bit, he's still a first team player, and will be missed.


Rafa has the upper hand here if you ask me. Why you ask? I would rate these two coaches 50-50, both are extremely talented and know football. When guys like Rijkaard are concerned (putting in Gudjohnsen immediately after Liverpool tied it up at 1 was a HUGE mistake btw) I wouldn't be so sure. He could've been an excellent player, but scouting and coaching is what Rafa and Jose do the best.

Ok then. Chelsea has dominated Liverpool in and out in the Premier League, I don't even want to google up how much they thumped them over the recent years.

But cup competitions were something else:

1)CL Semifinal 2005 (if you were going to mention the non existing goal, I agree it can't be determined whether it had crossed the line, but in case it didn't, Chelsea is down to 10 men, without Cech and have a penalty to face).

2)CL group stage 2005/2006. Liverpool 1st, Chelsea 2nd.

3)FA Cup 2006: Liverpool go through after Mourinho totally choked Essien in the back and Lampard was miles from his best days.

4)Charity Shield: Meaningless, yes. But another win for Rafa.

5)The only time Chelsea went through in cup competitions was the league cup.

Has the time come for Jose to make it 2?

I'm really not sure. What I know with FULL CONFIDENCE (and you know if you read my posts that I'm always cautious, rarely confident in anything, rather observant and analytical than pretentious), that this is a 50-50 clash when it comes to who goes through.

Liverpool are focused on this one for a long time now, Chelsea have the Premiership to worry about, and a few important absentees.
These teams know each other inside out and both have huge coaching authorities on their respective benches, and I'm sure the fair odds would be 1.89 - 1.89 for example (or better, if the bookie in question has lesser margin).

Instead, we have 1.76-2.20 in Chelsea's favor.

Don't mind if I take the other side.
Liverpool to advance to final pk (2.20 @ Pinnacle) 4 units.

Have in mind, I already have two CL bets pending:

Manchester United to win Champions League (9.40) 10/10
Liverpool to win Champions League (21.92) 2 units

Both taken at Pinnacle after group stage. I also had Valencia to win it @ 23.00 but Chelsea were just better and outclassed them at Mestalla.

I could cover my remaining bets somehow, but I won't. I'll keep on betting the value when I see it.

I'm already somewhat 60 units up when CL 2006/2007 is concerned, so no worries there.

------------------Reina-------------------
--------Carra---Agger----Arbeloa------
Finnan-----------------------------Riise--
----------Xabi Alonso---Sissoko---------------
-----------------Gerrard-------------------
--------Crouch-----------Kuyt----------



I think we'll see a very interesting clash but very possibly a 0:0 or 1:1 tie.

Good luck guys. Do it Red men.
 
Last edited:
I watched the ManU game at a bar here in DC the other day with about 20-25 Milan/ManU fans and they were all brits/foreigners who were quite invested in the game. I was just stoked to get my over quickly and was able to watch an enjoyable match.

I talked to a few of the fans and told them that the Over/Under for the match was 2 goals and they were a little surprised at how low that was. I then began talking about tomorrows game and almost everyone was decided that their was going to be little if any scoring and that Liverpool was going to win.

so based on that I really want to take the over and hope that all these people are wrong.
 
Another possible lineup is:

--------------Reina---------------
Finnan----Carragher--Agger---Arbeloa---
Gerrard---Mascherano---Alonso----Riise
------Crouch(Bellamy)--Kuyt--------
 
scourge said:
I watched the ManU game at a bar here in DC the other day with about 20-25 Milan/ManU fans and they were all brits/foreigners who were quite invested in the game. I was just stoked to get my over quickly and was able to watch an enjoyable match.

I talked to a few of the fans and told them that the Over/Under for the match was 2 goals and they were a little surprised at how low that was. I then began talking about tomorrows game and almost everyone was decided that their was going to be little if any scoring and that Liverpool was going to win.

so based on that I really want to take the over and hope that all these people are wrong.
Click to expand...

so based on the fact they told you it's going to be a low scoring match you'll take the under? basically just fade em right :D?
 
tough game so far, Chelsea a little more initiative up front as expected (they are playing at home after all), I'm surprised Finnan didn't start, also Sissoko, Crouch, I don't rate Bellamy or Zenden highly.

Anyways, a very tough clash, could go either way now, if it stays like this it's still a pretty much anyone's semi, if Chelsea win by 2 or 3 goals then it's hard for Liverpool to get back, 1:1 would make it completely unpredictable.

Let's wait and see...
 
Gerrard wasn't a major factor this match, i expect him to turn his gear on in Anfield. Chelsea didn't look at all that impressive either and if it wasn't for Petr Cech's tremendous save it would of been 1-1.
 
over 2 goals (1.93 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Liverpool @ 2.40 (straight win) 4 units


Note that I already have following bets pending:
Liverpool to advance to final pk (2.20 @ Pinnacle) 4 units.
Manchester United to win Champions League (9.40) 10/10
Liverpool to win Champions League (21.92) 2 units

I won't be hedging anything, I'm still treating every game independently here, I'm up somewhat 60 units since CL started this season, and as I said, I won't be disappointed even if I lose all these bets. It would be nice to cash a few, of course Liverpool lifting the trophy would be dreamy in more ways than one.

This isn't a fan bet. I'm counting on Chelsea to have another letdown moment. Do we really think their draw with Bolton was coincidental? They're bruised, missing men from the lineup, fatigued and slowly fed up with this season, which has been really tiring for them.
I have to commend Mourinho and his players for fighting on 4(!) paths simultaneously, one trophy is already in the bag, they have 3 more to go, with Premiership possibly lost.
This is a game of the year for both teams, be aware of that. And I am aware that the more realistic score from game 1 would've been 2:0 Chelsea, but it's not. And Liverpool have the chance to win this one, plus we're not even talking about advancing, just winning, meaning 2:1 or 3:2 (science fiction but hey, anything can happen) will do the trick as well.
However, I'm actually counting on Liverpool to step up HUGE tonight. Anfield was pretty much a non factor this season in CL, at least when knockout stage is concerned, and I expect that to change tonight.

Chelsea will have to rotate players once again, as they're missing Ballack, Shevchenko and Carvalho, which means Essien's creativity will be limited since he'll mostly be used in the back.
I expect Rafa to impose his rhythm and slowly wear down Chelsea's defense, after that anything can happen. Perhaps the "due theory" can be applied here because apart from the league cup Chelsea have failed to get passed Liverpool 4 times, whether it's the group stage or direct knockout situation.

I expect another tactical battle here, but with more goals scored (hence my over bet), and Liverpool to impose their tempo and put pressure on Chelsea's backline.

I have to say I hope Zenden and Bellamy won't play, perhaps Pennant and Crouch would be better solutions, actually I'm sure they would. But Rafa's notorious "surprise factor" will surely chip in once again. As far as Chelsea's woes are concerned, missing Carvalho should be a big blow, missing Sheva and Ballack, oddly enough, not THAT much. Kalou will probably get the nod up front, but I'm not so sure about Robben's fitness and form at this point.



My guess here would be good as any, when Rafa is concerned, you just never know.

---------------Reina------------------
Finnan----Carragher----Agger-----Riise---
Gerrard----Sissoko---Xabi-------Pennant(Gonzalez)
--------------Kuyt----Crouch--------------


Also a possibility:

------------ Reina ---------------
---- Carra---Hyypia--Agger -----
Finnan---Alonso---Mascherano-- Riise
----------- Gerrard --------------
---- Crouch -- Bellamy (Kuyt) -------


Good luck & COME ON RED MEN!!!!!!

MAKE US PROUD!

flag.jpg
 
mate i seriously don't know how Gerrard cannot be playing central tonite, that gap with Carvalho is just too golden to miss.

I also like that picture, look at all the beer cans, lol, i guess they should include, u can never buy enough beer.

Good Luck and enjoy the match
 
Thanks for the wishes, I hope you'll enjoy the match as well, and I hope for Red men to show why this club is so great.

:shake:
 
have teh same thing satyr. hopefully your boys show up today and win 2/3 - 1.
 
Fantastic match in terms of battle, fighting and great tactics. Both teams had their chances, Liverpool imposed their rhythm early on only to see Chelsea consolidate somewhere around half time and take the tempo from there for 20-25 mins. Reina and Carra were both MOTM, Reina perhaps a bit more since he saved those pens, he was IMMENSE throughout the match.
I'm glad Kuyt's goal was dissalowed because it was a TINY offside, but offside nevertheless.

The key to this match in my eyes was neutralizing Drogba during those long balls from Cech, Agger and Carra did a fantastic job there. Overall it was a fair, tough fight, and it could've been different, I won't deny that, but it's always like that with these teams.


WE DID IT!!!!!!!!!!! COME ON RED MEN!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
if Manchester goes through tomorrow I will have this :D.

Manchester United to win Champions League (9.40) 10/10
Liverpool to win Champions League (21.92) 2 units
:D
 
Satyr said:
if Manchester goes through tomorrow I will have this :D.

Manchester United to win Champions League (9.40) 10/10
Liverpool to win Champions League (21.92) 2 units
:D
Click to expand...

satisfied winner right there, good luck, i'm rooting for an all England final :smiley_acbe:
 
i really thought that was funny.

Rafa has proven again u cannot play tactics against him.

I am very very disappointed that Anfield will be closing down
 
are u still able to get a line for AC Milan to win the CL? Cause if u think about considering u already have Liverpool and Man Utd and farely good odds, wouldn't it be wise to also put a small bet on Milan just incase?
 
ACM may end up getting fckued by Dida again.

All ManU needs is a draw. If they get an early goal, ACM is screwed.

Let's face it, ManU totally dominated play last week.
 
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