College Football Picks for CFP Quarterfinal
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Thursday, January 1, 2026 at 4 p.m. ET
Despite Alabama’s 34-24 win over Oklahoma, bettors still have the notion etched in their minds that the Crimson Tide are remote from the version of themselves that had beaten Georgia on September 27. True, Bama endured a rough stretch through the end of the regular season and SEC title game. But the Tide were also injury-ridden, missing critical guys like starting running back Jam Miller and tight end Josh Cuevas, both of whom returned to an Alabama offense that scored 34 points in Norman, whereas the Tide had scored 21 points at home in their regular season matchup against the Sooners.
Bama quarterback Ty Simpson owns a great outlook against a zone-heavy Indiana defense. As evident in his highest-yardage games – he threw for 382 yards against Wisconsin and 340 against Vanderbilt – he thrives against zone coverage. He is also substantially better when he has Cuevas to throw to. Cuevas is not only healthy, but he also won’t have to worry about being a pass-blocker, with Stephen Daley set to miss this game. Daley co-led the nation in tackles for loss. He and fellow injured Indiana defensive lineman Kellan Wyatt had a combined total of eight sacks.
LT Overton, Alabama’s second-best pass-rusher – as measured by sacks and pressures – returns to a Crimson Tide defense that used pressure to shut down Oklahoma’s offense. Alabama’s defense became more aggressive and man coverage-oriented to shut down an Oklahoma offense that had been thriving early. This adjustment prepares them perfectly well, from a game-plan perspective, for Indiana’s offense. In terms of personnel and raw ability, Alabama’s defense has proven itself capable against quarterbacks in the Heisman conversation. For example, the Tide gave Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia one of his worst performances of the season, as measured by yards, completion percentage, and passer rating.
Indiana’s offense has struggled against very highly-ranked pass defenses, failing to exceed 20 points against Iowa or Ohio State. The Hoosiers did score 30 against Oregon’s defense but, in doing so, relied on exploiting the weakness of Oregon’s linebackers in coverage. As evident in linebacker Justin Jefferson’s coverage grades, Alabama with its 15th-ranked pass defense does not have that weakness. Indiana will fail to cover the spread because it is Alabama’s offense that will exploit Indiana’s defense. Indiana’s offense won’t sufficiently challenge the Crimson Tide defense. For the above reasons, bet on Alabama +7 at -118 with BetOnline.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Thursday, January 1, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
Georgia bettors are being misled by the trend that Georgia’s head coach is 4-0 in rematches. This trend is utterly misleading because Georgia had lost three of those four initial meetings. It is entirely different to prepare your team to beat a team that it had lost to versus preparing your team to beat the same team again because, for starters, it is the difference between looking to do things differently versus looking to do things the same. The dynamic is totally different. Last year, Georgia had to beat Texas a second time. In the first meeting, Georgia won at Texas by 15 points. In the rematch on neutral territory, the Bulldogs won by three points in overtime and were outgained by 112 yards. If Texas could kick field goals, the Bulldogs would have lost in regulation.
The situation favors Ole Miss for two reasons. One, it is very hard to beat a good team twice in one season. Ole Miss obviously qualifies as a good team. The Rebels still look great without Lane Kiffin – in their tune-up playoff game, they beat Tulane with a score line that was nearly identical to their September 20 win over Tulane. Two, Georgia wishes it could be tuned-up. Last year, the Bulldogs had to rest a similar amount of time before facing their first playoff opponent. They lost by 13 to Notre Dame. Likewise, after their bye week this year, they beat Florida by only four points on neutral territory – for comparison’s sake, Ole Miss recently beat Florida by ten points at home. Against Florida, Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton delivered a below-average performance against the Gators’ 95th-ranked pass defense. Georgia’s losses to Alabama in the last two seasons, including the one in which they fell behind 28-0, came after they had a week off. So, clearly, the Bulldogs struggle to stay in form when they get time off.
In its first game against Georgia, Ole Miss was up 35-26 late in the third quarter. Ole Miss simply needs to accumulate more time of possession to keep its defense from being gassed again. Charlie Weis Jr. is sick of hearing about Ole Miss’ offense being Lane Kiffin’s and is clearly an excellent play-caller. As evident in the first meeting, Weis Jr. understands how to use routes and formations to befuddle defenders after the snap. The Rebels’ starting running back is banged-up, but he hardly contributed to Ole Miss’ 35-point total, which is the second-highest total that Georgia allowed all year. On Thursday, the Bulldogs might also miss injured valuable defensive back Joenel Aguero.
In sum, coaching adjustments, Georgia’s rust, and Ole Miss’ dynamic offense will ensure that the Rebels cover. Bet, therefore, on Ole Miss +6.5 at -110 with BetOnline.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Thursday, January 1, 2026 at 4 p.m. ET
Despite Alabama’s 34-24 win over Oklahoma, bettors still have the notion etched in their minds that the Crimson Tide are remote from the version of themselves that had beaten Georgia on September 27. True, Bama endured a rough stretch through the end of the regular season and SEC title game. But the Tide were also injury-ridden, missing critical guys like starting running back Jam Miller and tight end Josh Cuevas, both of whom returned to an Alabama offense that scored 34 points in Norman, whereas the Tide had scored 21 points at home in their regular season matchup against the Sooners.
Bama quarterback Ty Simpson owns a great outlook against a zone-heavy Indiana defense. As evident in his highest-yardage games – he threw for 382 yards against Wisconsin and 340 against Vanderbilt – he thrives against zone coverage. He is also substantially better when he has Cuevas to throw to. Cuevas is not only healthy, but he also won’t have to worry about being a pass-blocker, with Stephen Daley set to miss this game. Daley co-led the nation in tackles for loss. He and fellow injured Indiana defensive lineman Kellan Wyatt had a combined total of eight sacks.
LT Overton, Alabama’s second-best pass-rusher – as measured by sacks and pressures – returns to a Crimson Tide defense that used pressure to shut down Oklahoma’s offense. Alabama’s defense became more aggressive and man coverage-oriented to shut down an Oklahoma offense that had been thriving early. This adjustment prepares them perfectly well, from a game-plan perspective, for Indiana’s offense. In terms of personnel and raw ability, Alabama’s defense has proven itself capable against quarterbacks in the Heisman conversation. For example, the Tide gave Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia one of his worst performances of the season, as measured by yards, completion percentage, and passer rating.
Indiana’s offense has struggled against very highly-ranked pass defenses, failing to exceed 20 points against Iowa or Ohio State. The Hoosiers did score 30 against Oregon’s defense but, in doing so, relied on exploiting the weakness of Oregon’s linebackers in coverage. As evident in linebacker Justin Jefferson’s coverage grades, Alabama with its 15th-ranked pass defense does not have that weakness. Indiana will fail to cover the spread because it is Alabama’s offense that will exploit Indiana’s defense. Indiana’s offense won’t sufficiently challenge the Crimson Tide defense. For the above reasons, bet on Alabama +7 at -118 with BetOnline.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Thursday, January 1, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
Georgia bettors are being misled by the trend that Georgia’s head coach is 4-0 in rematches. This trend is utterly misleading because Georgia had lost three of those four initial meetings. It is entirely different to prepare your team to beat a team that it had lost to versus preparing your team to beat the same team again because, for starters, it is the difference between looking to do things differently versus looking to do things the same. The dynamic is totally different. Last year, Georgia had to beat Texas a second time. In the first meeting, Georgia won at Texas by 15 points. In the rematch on neutral territory, the Bulldogs won by three points in overtime and were outgained by 112 yards. If Texas could kick field goals, the Bulldogs would have lost in regulation.
The situation favors Ole Miss for two reasons. One, it is very hard to beat a good team twice in one season. Ole Miss obviously qualifies as a good team. The Rebels still look great without Lane Kiffin – in their tune-up playoff game, they beat Tulane with a score line that was nearly identical to their September 20 win over Tulane. Two, Georgia wishes it could be tuned-up. Last year, the Bulldogs had to rest a similar amount of time before facing their first playoff opponent. They lost by 13 to Notre Dame. Likewise, after their bye week this year, they beat Florida by only four points on neutral territory – for comparison’s sake, Ole Miss recently beat Florida by ten points at home. Against Florida, Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton delivered a below-average performance against the Gators’ 95th-ranked pass defense. Georgia’s losses to Alabama in the last two seasons, including the one in which they fell behind 28-0, came after they had a week off. So, clearly, the Bulldogs struggle to stay in form when they get time off.
In its first game against Georgia, Ole Miss was up 35-26 late in the third quarter. Ole Miss simply needs to accumulate more time of possession to keep its defense from being gassed again. Charlie Weis Jr. is sick of hearing about Ole Miss’ offense being Lane Kiffin’s and is clearly an excellent play-caller. As evident in the first meeting, Weis Jr. understands how to use routes and formations to befuddle defenders after the snap. The Rebels’ starting running back is banged-up, but he hardly contributed to Ole Miss’ 35-point total, which is the second-highest total that Georgia allowed all year. On Thursday, the Bulldogs might also miss injured valuable defensive back Joenel Aguero.
In sum, coaching adjustments, Georgia’s rust, and Ole Miss’ dynamic offense will ensure that the Rebels cover. Bet, therefore, on Ole Miss +6.5 at -110 with BetOnline.
