Latest 2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Let's Go Swimming With the Ducks
National Champion Odds (according to BetOnline)
Texas +360
Oregon +375
Georgia +500
Ohio State +500
Penn State +600
Notre Dame +800
Tennessee +2500
SMU +4000
Indiana +4000
Boise State +4000
Clemson +6000
Arizona State +6000
Excluding Long-Shot Candidates
I find that there is a tremendous gap between Texas, Oregon, Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Tennessee, and the rest of the field.
Penn State, under James Franklin, cannot win big games. After losing to flu-ridden Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, Franklin's Nittany Lions became 1-14 against top-five teams.
SMU, Indiana, Boise State, Clemson, and Arizona State have, among them, zero impressive wins and disturbing losses.
SMU played in a weak conference, the ACC, and, overall, did not dominate in a convincing fashion. The Mustangs gave up over 400 yards to Boston College and nearly lost to Duke.
Indiana had a very soft schedule this year, almost lost to Michigan, and lost by 23 to the one CFP opponent that it faced (Ohio State).
Boise State beat one ranked team all year, fellow Mountain West foe UNLV.
Clemson lost by 31 to Georgia. While the Tigers beat SMU for the ACC Championship, the Mustangs had to battle their own big-game inexperience, which was obvious to see in their penalties and aberrant play-calling.
Arizona State lost by at least eight points to both Texas Tech and Cincinnati. I get one lapse happening, but two is damning.
My Favorite Long-Shot Option
At the current price, I find it worthwhile to take a shot with the Volunteers.
I would not invest a full unit in Tennessee, because I think that a different team will win it all.
But we are talking about betting value here, and there is a lot of profit to reap with a quarter-unit investment.
Tennessee has elite weapons on offense and an elite defensive line that is filled with depth and top-level talent.
The quality of its defensive line is evident in its ability to stop the run and amass sacks. Tennessee ranks eighth in rush defense and 27th in sack rate.
Its defensive line can help it upset an Ohio State team that just lost to Michigan, which likewise boasts a top-level defensive line.
If the Volunteers beat Ohio State, then they would get to face Oregon and Texas teams that have put together concerning performances against opposing rush attacks. These performances include the game in which Oregon almost lost to Boise State and Texas' most recent loss to Georgia.
Led by Dylan Sampson and his 1,485 rushing yards, run is what Tennessee's offense does the best. The combination of Sampson and Tennessee's elite defensive line can take Tennessee to the title game, where anything can happen in a single game.
Why I Also Like Notre Dame
Notre Dame is on the easy side of the bracket where it would not have to face Oregon, Texas, Ohio State, or Tennessee.
The Fighting Irish did lose a tight game to a MAC team, but lapses happen especially in the early season. I think that one bad loss is forgivable. Its top competitor on its side of the bracket is anyhow a Georgia team that lost by 18 to Ole Miss.
With extra prep — Notre Dame's head coach is a perfect 10-0 ATS with extra time to prepare — Notre Dame will beat Indiana. The Fighting Irish, with their elite defense that almost always holds teams to fewer than 14 points, will advance past a Georgia team that, as evident in its recent near-loss to Georgia Tech, struggles to contain opposing mobile quarterbacks. Notre Dame's Riley Leonard has run for over 700 yards this season.
They would then only have to beat either Penn State, which nearly always loses big games under James Franklin, SMU, or Boise State to advance to the championship game.
My Pick to Win it All
Oregon has the best quarterback in the College Football Playoffs.
Heisman finalist Dillion Gabriel is completing 73.8 percent of his throws for 3,558 yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
His Ducks regularly score over 30 or 40 points per game, as when they withstood the infection of their defense with the flu to beat Penn State 45-37.
Gabriel, for that game, had the help of two different running backs who exceeded 80 rushing yards. Tez Johnson, who caught 11 passes for 181 yards and a touchdown in that game, has been a reliable number-one option for him all season.
This is a loaded offense that I don't see Texas, whose quarterback Quinn Ewers struggles to throw downfield, or Ohio State, which might very well lose in the first round and which lacks the physical talent to survive very talented defensive lines, keeping up with.
Oregon's pass attack far exceeds the firepower potential of Leonard for Notre Dame or Carson Beck for Georgia. Statistics show that the latter has clearly declined this year, with his wide receivers and their drops and route-running deficiencies sharing part of the blame.
The Ducks have the number-eleven defense, so it's not like they are easy to score on when they don't have the flu. With big names in the secondary and one of the best pass rushes, the Ducks have the quality in their pass defense to withstand any test than an opposing quarterback inferior to the Heisman finalist could pose to it.
As evident when it shut down Jonah Coleman, Washington's 1,000-yard rusher, for three rushing yards on eleven carries, its run defense has improved drastically since its rough start to the season.
Betting Recommendations
I recommend investing a full unit in the Ducks to win it all and in an Oregon-Notre Dame matchup in the finals. You should also throw a quarter unit on Tennessee to win it all.
Best Bets: Oregon College Football Championship Winner at +375 with BetOnline; Oregon vs. Notre Dame Exact Final Matchup at +1100 with BetOnline; Tennessee College Football Championship Winner at +2500 with BetOnline
National Champion Odds (according to BetOnline)
Texas +360
Oregon +375
Georgia +500
Ohio State +500
Penn State +600
Notre Dame +800
Tennessee +2500
SMU +4000
Indiana +4000
Boise State +4000
Clemson +6000
Arizona State +6000
Excluding Long-Shot Candidates
I find that there is a tremendous gap between Texas, Oregon, Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Tennessee, and the rest of the field.
Penn State, under James Franklin, cannot win big games. After losing to flu-ridden Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, Franklin's Nittany Lions became 1-14 against top-five teams.
SMU, Indiana, Boise State, Clemson, and Arizona State have, among them, zero impressive wins and disturbing losses.
SMU played in a weak conference, the ACC, and, overall, did not dominate in a convincing fashion. The Mustangs gave up over 400 yards to Boston College and nearly lost to Duke.
Indiana had a very soft schedule this year, almost lost to Michigan, and lost by 23 to the one CFP opponent that it faced (Ohio State).
Boise State beat one ranked team all year, fellow Mountain West foe UNLV.
Clemson lost by 31 to Georgia. While the Tigers beat SMU for the ACC Championship, the Mustangs had to battle their own big-game inexperience, which was obvious to see in their penalties and aberrant play-calling.
Arizona State lost by at least eight points to both Texas Tech and Cincinnati. I get one lapse happening, but two is damning.
My Favorite Long-Shot Option
At the current price, I find it worthwhile to take a shot with the Volunteers.
I would not invest a full unit in Tennessee, because I think that a different team will win it all.
But we are talking about betting value here, and there is a lot of profit to reap with a quarter-unit investment.
Tennessee has elite weapons on offense and an elite defensive line that is filled with depth and top-level talent.
The quality of its defensive line is evident in its ability to stop the run and amass sacks. Tennessee ranks eighth in rush defense and 27th in sack rate.
Its defensive line can help it upset an Ohio State team that just lost to Michigan, which likewise boasts a top-level defensive line.
If the Volunteers beat Ohio State, then they would get to face Oregon and Texas teams that have put together concerning performances against opposing rush attacks. These performances include the game in which Oregon almost lost to Boise State and Texas' most recent loss to Georgia.
Led by Dylan Sampson and his 1,485 rushing yards, run is what Tennessee's offense does the best. The combination of Sampson and Tennessee's elite defensive line can take Tennessee to the title game, where anything can happen in a single game.
Why I Also Like Notre Dame
Notre Dame is on the easy side of the bracket where it would not have to face Oregon, Texas, Ohio State, or Tennessee.
The Fighting Irish did lose a tight game to a MAC team, but lapses happen especially in the early season. I think that one bad loss is forgivable. Its top competitor on its side of the bracket is anyhow a Georgia team that lost by 18 to Ole Miss.
With extra prep — Notre Dame's head coach is a perfect 10-0 ATS with extra time to prepare — Notre Dame will beat Indiana. The Fighting Irish, with their elite defense that almost always holds teams to fewer than 14 points, will advance past a Georgia team that, as evident in its recent near-loss to Georgia Tech, struggles to contain opposing mobile quarterbacks. Notre Dame's Riley Leonard has run for over 700 yards this season.
They would then only have to beat either Penn State, which nearly always loses big games under James Franklin, SMU, or Boise State to advance to the championship game.
My Pick to Win it All
Oregon has the best quarterback in the College Football Playoffs.
Heisman finalist Dillion Gabriel is completing 73.8 percent of his throws for 3,558 yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
His Ducks regularly score over 30 or 40 points per game, as when they withstood the infection of their defense with the flu to beat Penn State 45-37.
Gabriel, for that game, had the help of two different running backs who exceeded 80 rushing yards. Tez Johnson, who caught 11 passes for 181 yards and a touchdown in that game, has been a reliable number-one option for him all season.
This is a loaded offense that I don't see Texas, whose quarterback Quinn Ewers struggles to throw downfield, or Ohio State, which might very well lose in the first round and which lacks the physical talent to survive very talented defensive lines, keeping up with.
Oregon's pass attack far exceeds the firepower potential of Leonard for Notre Dame or Carson Beck for Georgia. Statistics show that the latter has clearly declined this year, with his wide receivers and their drops and route-running deficiencies sharing part of the blame.
The Ducks have the number-eleven defense, so it's not like they are easy to score on when they don't have the flu. With big names in the secondary and one of the best pass rushes, the Ducks have the quality in their pass defense to withstand any test than an opposing quarterback inferior to the Heisman finalist could pose to it.
As evident when it shut down Jonah Coleman, Washington's 1,000-yard rusher, for three rushing yards on eleven carries, its run defense has improved drastically since its rough start to the season.
Betting Recommendations
I recommend investing a full unit in the Ducks to win it all and in an Oregon-Notre Dame matchup in the finals. You should also throw a quarter unit on Tennessee to win it all.
Best Bets: Oregon College Football Championship Winner at +375 with BetOnline; Oregon vs. Notre Dame Exact Final Matchup at +1100 with BetOnline; Tennessee College Football Championship Winner at +2500 with BetOnline
