College Football Playoff First Round Best Bets
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Friday, December 20, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Notre Dame Stadium
Key Trend
Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman is worth backing when he has extra time to prepare for his opponent.
Overall, his Fighting Irish are 10-0 ATS when he has extra prep time. They regularly cover the spread with ease in this situation.
This year, Freeman's Irish are 2-0 ATS when he has extra prep time.
In the first instance, Notre Dame played Stanford over two weeks after playing Louisville. The Fighting Irish were favored by 22.5 points and won by 42.
Most recently, they played Florida State two weeks after playing Navy.
Against the Seminoles, they were favored by 25.5 points and won by 49.
Indiana Will Struggle to Score
The Hoosiers have mostly benefited from a soft schedule.
They have struggled when they finally faced talented units or even talented position groups.
When they almost lost to a Michigan team that is very down this year, they were fazed by a Michigan defensive line that is quite talented.
Their ground game was stifled by both Michigan and Ohio State defensive lines that PFF ranked top-two heading into the season due to their respective talent levels.
PFF ranked Notre Dame's defensive line at sixth because it is likewise very talented.
But the former MAC quarterback for Indiana will also struggle to be productive against Notre Dame's third-ranked pass defense.
Notre Dame's Offensive Prowess
Notre Dame's strongest offensive outputs — it ranks third with 39.8 points per game — have come when its rush attack has thrived.
The Fighting Irish have a well-proven ground game that, for example, amassed 198 rushing yards on 5.8 YPC against a Texas A&M rush defense that has been especially good at home.
Their offensive line received a Joe Moore Award nomination and is supported by two running backs who average over seven YPC.
Both Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price will have solid games, complementing the ability of efficient dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard to sustain drives.
Best Bet: Notre Dame -7.5 at -106 with BetOnline
SMU Mustangs vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, December 21, 2024 at Beaver Stadium
Key Trend
A lot of people are high on Penn State because it looks good on paper.
But Penn State repeatedly looks good on paper and, in big games, repeatedly fails.
Under head coach James Franklin, Penn State is 1-7 against teams ranked in the top 15.
The Nittany Lions regularly fail to defeat such teams even at home.
Outlook for SMU's Defense
SMU owns a well-stocked defensive line that includes significant size and strength.
One key member is 350-pounder Anthony Booker Jr, who helps make the Mustangs very tough to run on.
They rank eighth in run defense.
While penalties and other gaffes inflated Clemson's scoring total in the ACC Championship Game, Phil Mafah failed to help his team's offense sustain drives.
Clemson's running back has over 1,100 rushing yards on the season, on 5.2 YPC, but mustered 2.2 YPC against SMU.
In line with SMU's season-long dominance against the run, I expect Penn State's ground game to struggle, which creates a negative outlook for the whole offense because quarterback Drew
Allar's worst games, against Ohio State and Maryland, came when running back Kaytron Allen failed to be efficient.
SMU's Top-Notch Scoring Offense
SMU can be counted on to score 30 points, as it did against Clemson.
On the season, the Mustangs rank eighth with 36.8 points per game.
Their starting running back, Brashard Smith, has amassed 1,270 rushing yards on 5.9 YPC.
Smith has thrived even against the likes of Pittsburgh with its 24th-ranked run defense. He ran for 161 yards on seven YPC against the Panthers.
Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings is dangerous both through the air and on the ground, making SMU's offense a two-dimensional force.
Best Bet: SMU +8.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Clemson Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 4 p.m. ET at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Overrated Texas
Texas is being radically overvalued by oddsmakers here.
The Longhorns have faced six ranked opponents so far this season.
They do have three big wins against ranked opponents, but all three of those opponents started freshman or walk-on quarterbacks who are not good passers and were therefore easy for their defense (as well as many other defenses) to stop.
On the other side, Texas has faced two offenses that rank in top-50.
The Longhorns beat Arkansas, which has a horrendous secondary, by ten, and lost to Georgia (twice).
I look at their resume, where they almost lost to Vanderbilt and lost twice to Georgia — that is, where they lost to ranked teams with competent quarterback play, although Georgia had to rely extensively on its backup quarterback in their most recent game — and do not see a team that deserves to be favored so highly against Clemson.
Outlook for Clemson's Offense
Stopping the run is the weak point of Texas' defense.
A very inefficient Georgia rush attack most recently featured two thriving running backs when it upset the Longhorns in the SEC Championship Game.
For the Bulldogs, Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier averaged 5.9 and 7.8 YPC, respectively.
Clemson's Phil Mafah, who has ran for 1,106 yards on 5.2 YPC this season, has a great outlook.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik, who is finding his stride with 33 touchdowns on the season, is arguably the toughest quarterback that Texas will have seen.
Outlook for Clemson's Defense
I don't trust Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers and I'm not sure that Ewers does, either.
He is a mistake-prone quarterback with an unreliable deep ball. He enters this game having failed to reach 138 in his passer rating in any of his last four games.
With Ewers at quarterback, Texas is not going to score enough points to cover the spread.
Best Bet: Clemson +11 at -110 with BetOnline
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Ohio State
Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Ohio Stadium
Tennessee on the Road
The Volunteers feature a freshman quarterback who is still raw.
Nico Iamaleava has struggled to execute especially on the road, where his season-long passer rating is 139.4, compared to 163 at home.
Iamaleava's worst game came at Georgia, where he threw for all of 167 passing yards, although he also struggled at Arkansas, where Ole Miss scored over 60 points.
Ohio State has the second-best pass defense, so I fail to see how Iamaleava can put together a decent performance.
Tennessee does have a very good running back, but Dylan Sampson failed to reach four YPC against the only run defense that he's faced that ranks close to as highly as Ohio State's does.
Tennessee's Defensive Line
A similar worry can be raised for Ohio State's rush attack. The Buckeyes failed to exceed 21 points against Nebraska, Penn State, or Michigan Teams that are all solid against the run.
Tennessee ranks ninth against the run because it features one of the best defensive lines.
The Volunteers have a defensive line that is super deep and well-stocked with talent, not the least of which is All-SEC selection James Pearce Jr.
This group can rotate in fresh talent to continually stifle opposing offenses.
Will Howard, quarterback for Ohio State, has struggled a lot under pressure. He won't get much support from his ground game and appears doomed to take sacks from Pearce Jr. and his teammates.
Largely due to Tennessee's offensive line, Ohio State will struggle to reach 20 points, although such a low point total will suffice for the victory.
Best Bet: Under 47 at -110 with BetOnline
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Friday, December 20, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Notre Dame Stadium
Key Trend
Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman is worth backing when he has extra time to prepare for his opponent.
Overall, his Fighting Irish are 10-0 ATS when he has extra prep time. They regularly cover the spread with ease in this situation.
This year, Freeman's Irish are 2-0 ATS when he has extra prep time.
In the first instance, Notre Dame played Stanford over two weeks after playing Louisville. The Fighting Irish were favored by 22.5 points and won by 42.
Most recently, they played Florida State two weeks after playing Navy.
Against the Seminoles, they were favored by 25.5 points and won by 49.
Indiana Will Struggle to Score
The Hoosiers have mostly benefited from a soft schedule.
They have struggled when they finally faced talented units or even talented position groups.
When they almost lost to a Michigan team that is very down this year, they were fazed by a Michigan defensive line that is quite talented.
Their ground game was stifled by both Michigan and Ohio State defensive lines that PFF ranked top-two heading into the season due to their respective talent levels.
PFF ranked Notre Dame's defensive line at sixth because it is likewise very talented.
But the former MAC quarterback for Indiana will also struggle to be productive against Notre Dame's third-ranked pass defense.
Notre Dame's Offensive Prowess
Notre Dame's strongest offensive outputs — it ranks third with 39.8 points per game — have come when its rush attack has thrived.
The Fighting Irish have a well-proven ground game that, for example, amassed 198 rushing yards on 5.8 YPC against a Texas A&M rush defense that has been especially good at home.
Their offensive line received a Joe Moore Award nomination and is supported by two running backs who average over seven YPC.
Both Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price will have solid games, complementing the ability of efficient dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard to sustain drives.
Best Bet: Notre Dame -7.5 at -106 with BetOnline
SMU Mustangs vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, December 21, 2024 at Beaver Stadium
Key Trend
A lot of people are high on Penn State because it looks good on paper.
But Penn State repeatedly looks good on paper and, in big games, repeatedly fails.
Under head coach James Franklin, Penn State is 1-7 against teams ranked in the top 15.
The Nittany Lions regularly fail to defeat such teams even at home.
Outlook for SMU's Defense
SMU owns a well-stocked defensive line that includes significant size and strength.
One key member is 350-pounder Anthony Booker Jr, who helps make the Mustangs very tough to run on.
They rank eighth in run defense.
While penalties and other gaffes inflated Clemson's scoring total in the ACC Championship Game, Phil Mafah failed to help his team's offense sustain drives.
Clemson's running back has over 1,100 rushing yards on the season, on 5.2 YPC, but mustered 2.2 YPC against SMU.
In line with SMU's season-long dominance against the run, I expect Penn State's ground game to struggle, which creates a negative outlook for the whole offense because quarterback Drew
Allar's worst games, against Ohio State and Maryland, came when running back Kaytron Allen failed to be efficient.
SMU's Top-Notch Scoring Offense
SMU can be counted on to score 30 points, as it did against Clemson.
On the season, the Mustangs rank eighth with 36.8 points per game.
Their starting running back, Brashard Smith, has amassed 1,270 rushing yards on 5.9 YPC.
Smith has thrived even against the likes of Pittsburgh with its 24th-ranked run defense. He ran for 161 yards on seven YPC against the Panthers.
Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings is dangerous both through the air and on the ground, making SMU's offense a two-dimensional force.
Best Bet: SMU +8.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Clemson Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 4 p.m. ET at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Overrated Texas
Texas is being radically overvalued by oddsmakers here.
The Longhorns have faced six ranked opponents so far this season.
They do have three big wins against ranked opponents, but all three of those opponents started freshman or walk-on quarterbacks who are not good passers and were therefore easy for their defense (as well as many other defenses) to stop.
On the other side, Texas has faced two offenses that rank in top-50.
The Longhorns beat Arkansas, which has a horrendous secondary, by ten, and lost to Georgia (twice).
I look at their resume, where they almost lost to Vanderbilt and lost twice to Georgia — that is, where they lost to ranked teams with competent quarterback play, although Georgia had to rely extensively on its backup quarterback in their most recent game — and do not see a team that deserves to be favored so highly against Clemson.
Outlook for Clemson's Offense
Stopping the run is the weak point of Texas' defense.
A very inefficient Georgia rush attack most recently featured two thriving running backs when it upset the Longhorns in the SEC Championship Game.
For the Bulldogs, Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier averaged 5.9 and 7.8 YPC, respectively.
Clemson's Phil Mafah, who has ran for 1,106 yards on 5.2 YPC this season, has a great outlook.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik, who is finding his stride with 33 touchdowns on the season, is arguably the toughest quarterback that Texas will have seen.
Outlook for Clemson's Defense
I don't trust Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers and I'm not sure that Ewers does, either.
He is a mistake-prone quarterback with an unreliable deep ball. He enters this game having failed to reach 138 in his passer rating in any of his last four games.
With Ewers at quarterback, Texas is not going to score enough points to cover the spread.
Best Bet: Clemson +11 at -110 with BetOnline
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Ohio State
Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Ohio Stadium
Tennessee on the Road
The Volunteers feature a freshman quarterback who is still raw.
Nico Iamaleava has struggled to execute especially on the road, where his season-long passer rating is 139.4, compared to 163 at home.
Iamaleava's worst game came at Georgia, where he threw for all of 167 passing yards, although he also struggled at Arkansas, where Ole Miss scored over 60 points.
Ohio State has the second-best pass defense, so I fail to see how Iamaleava can put together a decent performance.
Tennessee does have a very good running back, but Dylan Sampson failed to reach four YPC against the only run defense that he's faced that ranks close to as highly as Ohio State's does.
Tennessee's Defensive Line
A similar worry can be raised for Ohio State's rush attack. The Buckeyes failed to exceed 21 points against Nebraska, Penn State, or Michigan Teams that are all solid against the run.
Tennessee ranks ninth against the run because it features one of the best defensive lines.
The Volunteers have a defensive line that is super deep and well-stocked with talent, not the least of which is All-SEC selection James Pearce Jr.
This group can rotate in fresh talent to continually stifle opposing offenses.
Will Howard, quarterback for Ohio State, has struggled a lot under pressure. He won't get much support from his ground game and appears doomed to take sacks from Pearce Jr. and his teammates.
Largely due to Tennessee's offensive line, Ohio State will struggle to reach 20 points, although such a low point total will suffice for the victory.
Best Bet: Under 47 at -110 with BetOnline
