CFL Week 5

spottie2935

spottie2935

Read Lines, Not Books
nothing personal Hulu I am just going to change to my own thread this week.


ED at Sask

I can't imagine a line lower than +10 for Edmonton. The week 1 line opened at sask -2 or so and closed at Edmonton -2 or in the area of.

I would say line "value wou;d be Edmonton but that could be fools gold.

Resist temptation on any line and just face the facts that Edmonton cant play.

=-=--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
 
CGY @ WPG.

Over and over again fading WPG is death most often.

The way Calgary Meier looks I have to pass. If I had to play I like that CGY has been favored in every game. Maybe WPG has injuries ?


for now pass
 
Ottawa @ Ham

Is there really anything to like here? I am missing something? last game out Ottawa was an easy winner over Edm.

Hamilton also just WOW! Dog opportunity or just pass again.

For now pass again.
 
Montreal @ BC

Montreal has beat Ott and Hamilton. Failed to score much against WPG now facing another Elite?
 
In the past one could just take dogs turn their back and watch their account grow. Now it seems just the opposite. Favorites are here because of the lack of parody. The CFL masterminds have struggled with keeping the league competitive. Add to this when Elite players step out they leave for the bigger money if offered.

O'Rourke leaving has put a damper on QB depth on other rosters. Sure he could/would have stayed in BC but VAJ with a good offensive line looks just fine.

With a big field and 12 players on the field this is a passing league. Wr's approach the line of scrimmage with momentum and some of these teams just dont have enough talent to make improvement during the week of practice.

I have some queries that work but so far, because of lack of parody these queries only work with the middle of the pack teams

I have to wait for matchups with the teams like

Sask
CGY
MTL
Ham (maybe)
Ott (maybe)
Tor (fade maybe)

Pass against BC and WPG
Fade EDM?

If I am Edmonton I would inquire about Tyrie Adams when Masoli gets back and playing. Why not? He is slim and not durable but he looks like he can do somethings.
 
EDM @ SSK -10
CGY @ WPG -7
MTL @ BC -8
OTT @ HAM -3

Week 5:

lines looking ahead to week 6. Why? because in week 4 and 5 all the top team were favored. Those are not to be faded or even looked into for week 5. WPG and BC are always going to be favored. Therefore not many opportunities for them to qualify in what i do.


Week 5 :
Not fading WPG or BC pass on those
EDM not to be touched. pass on that game.


That leaves Ott @ Ham as for now pass but i have time to dig deeper if I want to have action.

Hamilton is a favorite and their next contest will be away favorites against Edmonton in week 6. Basically according to queries its a bad spot to fade Hamilton in week 5.
 
week 5 lines looking ahead to week 6 games and matchups:

EDM @ SSK -10
CGY @ WPG -7
MTL @ BC -8
OTT @ HAM -3

Side note TOR gets its 2nd bye in 5 weeks.

week 6:
HAM @ EDM HAM SHOULD BE CHALK
TOR @ MTL TOR SLIGHT FAV ?
WPG @ OTT WPG CHALK AGAIN
CAL @ SASK SASK CHALK?

have to see the actually lines but as it looks once again a lot of looking and not betting.

I do see a possible week 7 play.
 
In week 5 :

Ott @ Ham

if Ottawa is a favorite they will be home dogs in week 6.

F and n:HD are 28-55 ATS. In this case Hamilton would be a play
 
i have hedged my BC-120 to make a profit. The Argos fit a few queries because they are a dog that will be favored after their bye week.
 
plays :

Sask -7 -119 I dont see this line moving down and until ED shows a cover is full on fade! If the line moves up a lot I can middle. I dont like middling with heavy juice but I do like opportunities and I can see this line moving down. Maybe an injury or some soft of off the wall occurance shifts the line opposite but thats just bad luck


Calgary +8.5 just too many points. First time a dog after 3 straight favorite games. -5 I would take WPG but here i like the dog. Pray for me lol

Ottawa +3 I like it but will for a line move. 3 usually doesnt matter too much but I want 3.5 and if it moves down to +2.5 i will pass.

Montreal +7 aI bought to +7.5 juiced. Teams with <3 looses (BC) before week 7 that and home chalk after a game in which they were road favorites are 10-21 ATS. The teams have started well have high hopes and simply lose momentum in their next contest. Thats my spin on this query.

Montreal is in a good spot speaking only of ATS situations.

p:H and p:L and A and D and streak=-1 and line<=10 48-30 and 40-20 if the line is <=7. So my odds increase if the line stays or drops at +7 and according my query last week the best odds in the CFL are away teams with lines of +8 to -8 points. I will try and find that. Post it here and tract those wagers as we move along.

Sask -7 being my only favorite this week (I think thats why this line is low. books attract undiscipline bettors to an early week line that covers setting them up for failure if they continue betting the favorites). Just my thinking. we will see if I am right with a 3-1 or 4-0 ATS record this week

anyways my plays

Sask-7
Calgary +8.5
Ottawa waiting on +3.5
Montreal +7 small waiting on a line move up, but its statistically better if 7 or less.
 
Sask-6.5 I bought -120 on this. Mentally I really dont need to do this but I feel better doing so.
Calgary +8.5
Ottawa I have reconsidered here. I am too high on Ottawa after winning against a team that is lost. Hamilton doesnt look good so far but this is a situation that should be good for them.
Montreal +7 small waiting on a line move up, but its statistically better if 7 or less.
 
I have reversed course on tomorrows Sask Edmonton game.

I have Riders -6.5 and I think its the right play. As I think and look into this situation, I feel like this line is just off. Riders were dogs in week 1 to Edmonton and that scares me off the Riders -6.5 or higher this week.

Edmonton's lines so far also are catching up with them.

week 1:
Home to Riders @ Elks -2.5
week 2:
Elks @ BC -7 ( um same line as this game?) wow huh
week 3
Tor @ Elks +5.5
week 4 :
Elks @ Ott -2.5

I think the week 3 and 4 lines are kinda where they should be, but knowing the Elks as we do those should have been passes.

The week 1 and 2 lines were horrible for them and early easy fades.

We are not in week 5 and knowing that the Elks have done well against the Riders. -6.5 and higher is more than I want to take on.

I have middled this game

Riders -6.5
Elks +7.5

not much of a chance but the few pennies i have risked is worth it not to be exposed on this game. If I had to bet this game I would take the points or tease the Riders.
 
query for Thursday :

( and yes I included points scored this week, even at the moment this data is not clear how much the Elks score but I think they score 14 + here)

D and ats streak<-2 and line>6 and week<13 and points>13 19-4-1 ATS

If I exclude the points its 21-10 ATS but if they dont score 14 points here its probably a loss , and thats why comparing the above query to this query is a difference of 2-6 ATS

Bottom line Edmonton has to score 14 + points for a strong ROI and cover.

As for right now I am middled on the game with the option to take a steak on a side in game if I see Edmonton is playing and the line is good enough.
 
I hate to say it but I am leaning Calgary as well. Dave Dikenson off a bye has a really good ATS record but going into WInnipeg isn't exactly the best situation.
 
Edmonton team total is 17.5 -125. its a signal if they get their team total over this they will cover A LOT of the time.

I am playing Edmonton over 17.5 and +5.5 worse line but hey this is a signal for me. If its fools gold it would be the first time i look foolish
 
plays tonight: and lines are current not exactly what i have booked. yes i take the current lines.



Stamps +7

Stamps /WBB over 46.5 This is the best bet tonight. Way way too low.

Stamps TT over 18.5 -120 Meier can make INTS but also can pass the ball for nice yardage. WBB D is suspect and behind with the rest of the CFL in my opinion. The are not going to slow all the CFL teams to 3 points


my query for the Stamps :

AD and line <9 and line>5 and points>18.

If the stamps can get over their 18.5 team total with their line being +7.

= 118-36 ATS 76.6% ATS win %
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
plays tonight: and lines are current not exactly what i have booked. yes i take the current lines.



Stamps +7

Stamps /WBB over 46.5 This is the best bet tonight. Way way too low.

Stamps TT over 18.5 -120 Meier can make INTS but also can pass the ball for nice yardage. WBB D is suspect and behind with the rest of the CFL in my opinion. The are not going to slow all the CFL teams to 3 points


my query for the Stamps :

AD and line <9 and line>5 and points>18.

If the stamps can get over their 18.5 tam total with their line being +7.

= 118-36 ATS 76.6% ATS win %
Click to expand...
Agree on both. BOL tonight
 
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