CFL week 2 Report- BC tonight

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Cfl season so far has started and has been a good season so far. I will try to post all of my plays now as so far it has been a great season as I have hit all of my plays.

Recap- What we have in this league essentially is a different game of 3 down football. Now teams are going younger and revamping their coaching system. This means teams with veterans coaching staffs and players have a huge edge.

We have the grey cup runners ups Alouettes who are one of the weakest teams in the league this year.
Reasons- Coach POPP has changed the offence and forced the Qb Calvillo to throw of 3 step drops. Problem Calvillo is a 7 step drop Qb, and has to let plays develop and hit the intermediate throws. Results 0-2 and Calvillo was sacked 8 times in week one and at least 7 times yesterday.
Offense- No playmakers as the only threat is Cahoon who is a possession receiver at 5'9 and not very fast. With no deep threats emerging Calvillo is lost and it is showing on offense.

Hamilton has a completely new coaching staff, and a lot of yonger players from Usc Trojans and other great schools.
Problem- These players do well as linebackers because they have a zone and can make plays, but do not do well at 3 key positions. Receiver, Defensive backs, and Quarterbacks.

The receivers have to know the Cfl game, there is 5 receiver sets , more zone defenses, and the field is wider, and the pass patterns are different.

Defensive backs- ALthough they may be young, they are facing experienced receivers, complex defenses, 12 players instead of 11 players.

Qb's- Game is totaly different- in fact take any good NFL qb, they will struggle in CFL at the start.

On to tonights game I think the oddsmakers have missed something here.

Bc the defending grey cup champs opened at -5.5 and are somewhere in teh 6.5 range.

So far my calcualtions on the spread have been dead on except for this game. I had this Game as Bc 9.5 to 10 points.

BC has the best defense in the league.
Reasons- They have all ball hawking secondary led by Banks, and Miles, Marsh and Washington. Miles is a former Db and is very smart and fast. Banks is the best man to man shutdown Db in the league. Washington is a smart great veteran.
Bc has the best D lineman, best defensive back, best safety, and the best defensive schemes.


Linebackers- BC has great linebackers of Glatt and Floyd. Kidd has retired but they are still solid.

D lineman - They have the best in the league Brett Johnson who reaks havock on opposing Qb's.

Edmonton had a poor season last year and missed the playoffs, this year they tied Edmonton 39-39 in week one. QB Ray can be very good and has been one of the best Qb's in the league as he is exactly like a Joe Montana type of Qb. He throws to spots, and does not have a very strong arm but throws the intermediate outs, and ins but has to have receivers get separation.

Offense- They lost 2 of their key receivers to retirement, Hervey and Mitchell. I went to the Grey Cup 2 years when Edmonton won at Bc place, and noticed that Ray's key targets were Mitchell and Hervey and then TUCKER who was the main deep threat and their best receiver.

NOw they have replaced Hervey with Acree who was on Bc's practice squad last year. He is basically a 5'10 quick footed receiver with good moves and good hands, but couldn't land a spot on Bc's team. Last week Acree caught 9 passes all on 10 yard out routes to the sidelines. When Ray is in a rythm he is deadly, as he has been known to complete like 15 to 20 passes in a row.

Dante Marsh will cover Acree, Marsh is fast, and had major Nfl interest but was probably too small.
Banks will cover Edmontons's best receiver Tucker and should be able to handle him. Last year Tucker ran his coveted post corner move and Banks dove and made one of the most athletic knockdowns ever on him. Bottom line ball is not thrown on the money Banks is picking it off.

Edmonton's other receivers NOWACKI, GAYLOR and WOODCOCK and Richard ALSTON are basically guys that are in the lineup one week, and then out of the lineup next week. All are basically not go to receivers and are inconsistent.

Edmonton's defense has gone through major changes this season.

Last week they did not stop Winnipeg Qb kevin Glenn at all. He was throwing at will vs their secondary who I believe has at least 8 new starters out of 12 players. This may spell trouble vs the Lions offense. Edmonton allowed 39 points last week vs Winnipeg on natural grass which is a lot slower than the turf at Bc place, where the receivers will be faster.

Much was made of BC's struggle vs Toronto last week , even though they won the game. QB DICKENSON did not look sharp, but he finsidhed 17 for 27 passes. There is a reason for this though the Argos will let you run on them and will play to stop the pass. They have an amzing scheme to stop the pass, and that made DICKENSON struggle a bit.

Bounceback- Bc's offense is explosive at home with Simon, Clairmont, Jackson and Simmons. Simmons has a 31 inch waist and 39 inch legs and runs a 4.3 40 after tearing his knee apart last week. I ran into him this week, and this guys legs are scary.

Qb DICKENSON is a fiery competitor and will play better as BC handled the Eskimos easy last year at home. Eskimos have a better offensive line and that is key because if they give Ray more time he will complete more passes but the receivers need to get open, and he needs 4 good ones, not one good one.

Bc Qb situation- The best thing about this game is if Dickenson was injured or struggles we have the best backup in the league, Buck PIERCE. He played last year at home vs Eskimos and put up 40 points. Talks are that he could replace Dickenson even this year as the starter.

Game- What we will see is Bc will get pressure on Ray early and sack him. Ray will complete some short passes, but I suspect Bc's linebackers and veterans will take the short passes away and force him into tough deep throws.

Bc offense- I think Bc offense has a huge edge, with Simon the best reciever in the league and Clairmont. Dickenson will come out sharp and move the ball with using running back Joe Smith and feeding Simon and Clairmont and Jackson.

Edmonton's defense is very suspect, and their offense although they scored 39 points last week, was mostly scored in the first half. Even WInnipeg adjusted and I believe intercepted Ray twice in the second half.
They have 2 new linebackers Shabbaz and Pearman, who looked good last week but they will have trouble vs the Lions who run a lot of crossing patterns. Dickenson will outsmart these young athletic linebackers with the pick plays.


I went to the game 2 years ago where BC beat Edmonton at home, and that was the year Edmonton won the Grey Cup. Bc won that game by 6 points. Last year BC was winning by about 25 points and then let edmonton score a couple of last minute Td;s and won by about 9points.

Last year no Qb's had good games vs the Lions defense. Reason the coverage is so tight by the Db's that unless you have a very strong arm, which Ray does not, you cannot throw off your back foot or float passes up.

3 points is given for home field advantage, is Vegas saying BC would be -2.5 over edmonton on a neutral field?? Bc has the biggest home advantage in the league, as they only lost 1 game last year at home. The dome is very loud.

Also Edmonton lately has been terrible on the road and good at home because they are the only team that plays on real grass, and they practice on it, and are used to it.

I am going to the game and taking BC -6 and at -6.5.

Me and my brother have been following the Cfl for over 24 years and he made a comment to me, and said we know some of the teams so well its like we are actually suiting up and playing in it.

So far so good in the CFL and I will try to post all of my plays on here as I have received many winners from here during the Nba season and would like to share my knowledge in the Cfl so we can all win.
 
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I was thinking of that one, because of this reason.

In addition BC has been traditionally a really fast starting team that builds leads at home between 17 and 21 points at home. Then BC has a tendency to let down and let the teams back in the game. In fact I believe they were winning every game at half last year at home.

However there is major bad blood between the teams, and I expect Buono will have BC play the full 60 minutes tonight rather than their usual 30 minutes. Also if you watched yesterday Winnipeg was -4.5 and I had them and they were down 13-0.

I came home from work, my brother called me, and I said don't worry they have their 13 points we are going to score at least 30 points. Winnipeg scored the next 22 points to lead by 9 at half.

I think Bc 1st half is a good play, but I personally am taking them for the extra 2.5 points for the game, because BC QB Dickenson will figure the defense out, and Bc will win this game by more than a Td. Because it is less than a TD I will take them for the game knowing that in 60 mins I will prevail.

Rankings in the Cfl- Bc Lions
Calgary Stampeders
Toronto Argonauts
Winnipeg tied with Saskatchewan roughriders
Edmonton Eskimos
Montreal Alouettes
Hamiton Tigercats

The strange thing is last season BC was about the same line vs the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the league Calgary and Toronto. Edmonton is 6th best out of a 8 team league, and this line opened up at -5.5 WOW.
 
Sammy,

You've basically written tomorrow's sports front page as I fully agree that BC is too strong for Edmonton tonight. If they were playing this game later in the season, it would be double digits so that's where the value lies getting this matchup in week 2 where the oddsmakers want to "see and wait" what happens in the game.

Best thing that hapenned in Week 1 was for Edmonton to gain a point and BC to only win by 2 points thereby creating value in the spread for this game. I'm going BIG on this one risking half of my profits from the Winnipeg win last night.

Have fun at the game ...will be watching on TV. :cheers:
 
my line is -7, i have a play at -5.5 but wanted to add on to it


yeah that is crap, I knew this line would go up from -5.5. Maybe look at taking the first half line, or buying it for -6.5 points.

Looking for Dickenson to be very sharp tonight, because if he falters he will be pulled and PIERCE will become the starter, just like Bledsoe and Brady, that's how it starts. DICKENSON knows he is being watched very closely for his play, but I can tell you knowing the Argos Defense, they are studs, their Db's are really good.

I actually went to only one game last year and ironically it was the game they lost vs Saskatchewan.

Reasons- Sask had a veteran laden defense with tough physical football players. Lions had this game under control until Jackie Mitchell came on a blitz and absoultely steamrolled DICKENSON. He sent him flying 5 yards back on a blinsided hit, it was like getting hit by a missile. BC was winning at that point, but if you saw the Sask bench they won the game right there.

After that they were holding and on one play Simon was open he was pushed, and the safety Clovis stepped right through him and picked it off.

Late in the game same thing, another interception off a db pushing the receiver.

Sask Qb Joseph scored a couple of nice TD's but it was because he broke containment and scrambled and hit long passes on the run.

Tonight RAY is no threat to run, and the Db's on edmonton are not physical and will be backpedalling and afraid of the skill of BC receivers. Watch #10 Samuels he will be burnt bad by Simon.
 
I am in the US, don't know if this is on tv here. I am tailing, know nothing about CFL except that someone gave me the BC pick and than I saw this thread and it convinces me even more
 
great discussion guys.. Everyone like Toronto 2morrow?


Initial analysis after watching that game is the following.

I watched Hamilton play last week, in fact bet big against them, and at least have some film on them. I missed the Toronto game but know them pretty well and know they are like the Baltimore Ravens of the Nfl, solid defense and unpredicable offense.

I can tell you from last few years Toronto owns Hamilton.

Hamilton Qb Jason Maas is really struggling.

Reasons- He does not throw downfield, he only throws sideline routes. I believe this is because he has no confidence, and when a Qb is struggling he will look to throw outside away from traffic rather than inside, where it is congested.

Big Touble: Argos have Byron Parker former Ncaa slam dunk champion on one corner and the other corner Jermaine is solid as well. Argos corners stay at home, thus they could pick of Maas a few to the house.


Maas was pulled and he will be done soon as the starter and Timmy Chang will take over.

Good news for Argos is that BISHOP is the starter this week. Damon Allen is done. Mike MCMAHON may be their best Qb I think though.

The only issue is here is the Argos Offense, and can it score enough points.

Hamilton offense is in dissaray, who are these receivers, Jo jo Walker? Maas has no confidence in anyone getting open. Last week Hamilton looked horrible on offense. They have no experience at receiver?? They let Flick go and yeast, and MOrreale, these guys had good experience and went with all unkowns at receiver.

Hamilton Hope- Their linebackers are very good, they went to Usc and got Zeke Moreno and some other college studs. Their secondary is not amazing, but they do have a great punter and field goal kicker which is very important.


Its like a mathematical formula when these 2 teams play, Toronto usually score around 21 and Hamilton usually gets under 10 points.

However I have to look into Bishop starting, and it is Hamilton's home opener.
 
I am in the US, don't know if this is on tv here. I am tailing, know nothing about CFL except that someone gave me the BC pick and than I saw this thread and it convinces me even more


In fact there was guy who played in our touch football league and was forced to start for Hamilton tigercats about 7 years ago. The line was Calgary -6 and their starting QB was Jeff Garcia vs a guy that I even picked off in touch football? Calgary won by 40 points. But Vegas didn't know who the hell this Qb was starting, they probably just assumed he is the backup QB. Not sure if Vegas is reading our boards because line is climbing and will probably more than a Td at gametime.

If you have TSN it will be on, Bell Express Vu has it, if anyone has those satellite dishes free to air style.

Yeah Cfl is great, because there is no parity at this point and Vegas sets lines, but they don't know the players, the teams, the coaches. There is no way that any Vegas linemaker knows any players. I know many players on different teams, and from what I can see injuries are never diclosed, and in fighting and things like that.


In fact I spoke to one player at a bar about a winner I hit in a Cfl game, and he said " I made a killing on that game" they were out of the season at that point but still.
 
Sammy, I want to get more money down on BC..

Take 7 and buy it down to 6.5 for the game or take 3.5 for the half
 
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So far I only have Bc for the game at 6 and 6.5. Personally I will take a favorite to win the game when it is less than a touchdown, rather than the first half.

Reason- If Bc is up by 3, I feel they are in the drivers seat. Or if they are up 6 and edmonton kicks a cheap field goal. Also with teams like Edmonton on defense, I think with all the new players, Dickenson is like a surgeon he will figure their schemes out and disect them as the game goes on.

Last week I think he started 0 for 6 but finished 17 for 27. But the Argos secondary could be #1 or #2 best in the league. Edmonton's is in the bottom tier of the league.

Personally I would take BC at the half if they are playing a weaker team and are favored by 10 to 12 points and they make it 6.5 first half, i will take them in the first half, but under a TD should not be a problem.

I would take the 6.5 points as Edmonton is not a good road team in addition and has tons of new inexperienced players to boot.

They are also raising the banner for the grey cup championship win last year.
 
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thank you.. The guy who gave me this pick said his strongest play as well. Hopefully he chimes in here. I am in. Lets go BC
 
Yeah I will be at the game, should be a good game as the dome is very loud and it is very hard for opposing teams to battle the crowd noise.

I expect Bc to set the pace and move the ball well the first few series.

What we have seen so far is lacklustre play in the preason from Bc and in their first game vs toronto. But they were winning the game vs Toronto and only allowed points on special teams. They were winning this game by 9 points in the 4th quarter.

And the fact there is bad blood, makes me feel Bc will start playing solid football as they are over the hangover from the grey cup.
 
Have fun at the game. Did a little research myself after placing the bet (haha) and I don't have anything to say that you don't already know.

EDM has not beaten BC at home, atleast not since 04'
EDM looks to have no defense at all

What are BC strengths on offense, they didn't have too much offense vs. Toronto, am I right?
 
Have fun at the game. Did a little research myself after placing the bet (haha) and I don't have anything to say that you don't already know.

EDM has not beaten BC at home, atleast not since 04'
EDM looks to have no defense at all

What are BC strengths on offense, they didn't have too much offense vs. Toronto, am I right?

BC's strengths on offence is their balance. They can run the ball effectively with Jow Smith and can throw the ball very well with Dickenson.

On offence they run a lot of crossing patterns, and move the ball with controlled passes. Then they can hit the deep one as well as they have playmakers.

The only issue might be the fact that offensive coordinator is gone to Edmonton. Geroy Simon and players have said they are working with a new coordinator and it will take time, but Simon also said Edmonton's defense can be exploited.

Most of the same players are there for BC this year, so I think they should be running the same plays as they did last year. This could be a reason for the slower start, but Toronto is very good, it is tough to score on them anyways, so I think you cannot read too much into it.

Bc's offense is probably not at the level of top caliber yet, but against Edmonton's defense which gave up 39 points last week, this should be a game to get it back on track. Same players are there, just need to execute like they did last year. They will I am sure use the same plays that worked all of last year this week.

With a veteran coach and Qb the loss of the coordinator should not throw the offence off completely as they still know what works on the field.
 
thank you for the information...really enjoy it.

Looking forward to your breakdown of the Toronto game tomorrow =)
 
thank you for the information...really enjoy it.

Looking forward to your breakdown of the Toronto game tomorrow =)


I am flying back to Ontario tomorrow morning and will arrive in Ontario after game time. However I will try to post my play tonight and do a writeup for the Ticats game. There are some intagibles, new Quarterback for the Argos, and home opener for Cats and possibly a new QB for them. Argos kicker is also out, Steve Christie former NFL kicker is kicking for the Argos and I guess punting?

One thing you can take out of the Argos-BC game is that everyone says what's wrong with BC, well I think the Argos D is that good, and Bc ran into a very good defensive team last week. Also don't overreact to much to one week, If bc plays average one week it doesen't mean they are going to play average all season. However I don't think the same applies to Edmonton's defense which is new, and not that good yet.


However I think the Argos line is set about right at -5 points. Also another factor is there is 2nd half bets, which can be really good as well.

Lets take the Lions home tonight though.
 
i would be concerned about the Bc offence not clicking on all cylinders if they were playing Toronto or Saskatchewan, but not Edmonton.

You need a team that has been together for a few seasons to stop any good offense, and Edmonton has not been together and is not that great as well.

BC should be fine today. IF we can score 31 points , it should be enough.
 
By Sammy "Bc will win this game by more than a Td."

I am taking your word for it Sammy. :shake:

(By the way, I hope you aren't a BC fan by chance, are you?)
 
Yup, that's one exciting league for ya! :36_11_6: :36_11_6: :36_11_6:

I certainly hope Sammy Meatballs is enjoying this shootout in Vancouver tonight and Everthingthatsgreen, I certainly hope you refraimed from playing the Lions for the first half as well. This is a pharce! :36_11_6:
 
BC up 16-6 at half....congrats to BC first half backers. BC defence keeping Edmonton offence in check.

I'm confident with my BC -6 wager for the game. BC to start 2nd half with the ball.
 
Yes congrats to BC first half bettors. I didn't think they were going to come through but hats off! :cheers:
 
Yup, that's one exciting league for ya! :36_11_6: :36_11_6: :36_11_6:

I certainly hope Sammy Meatballs is enjoying this shootout in Vancouver tonight and Everthingthatsgreen, I certainly hope you refraimed from playing the Lions for the first half as well. This is a pharce! :36_11_6:

I am sitting here pretty happy at 26-9 in the 4th:smiley_acbe:
 
Went to the game and it was surely not the most entertaining game but a nice 29-9 win by the Lions.

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BC should be fine today. IF we can score 31 points , it should be enough.
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Bc scored 29 and it was enough because of the defense which had 3 interceptions off Ricky Ray. What was evident was how I predicted that Dickenson would play better as the game went on. With 3 minutes in the half Dickenson started hitting the intermediate routes and getting into a rythym.
The lions defense was giving the short passes all day to Edmonton which yielded only 9 points, because they bend but don't break. They are forcing Edmonton to score on 10+play drives without a dropped pass, no penailties and no sacks.

What happened is that BC forced many holding penalties and intercepted Ray 3 times.

Key notes- Bc offense looked better but only playing at about 60% of what it should be operating at. Dickenson a career 70% passer was mising far too many throws..

I watched the game what Bc does is very simple on defense. They play a man under zone and let Baron MILES take anything away from the middle of the field. Thus crossing patterns over the middle of the field are picked off by this safety who knows where the ball is going. You cannot throw deep vs Bc when Miles is back there at safety unless you go deep on the corners.
GLOVER aka(shutdown U) had a nice pick as did MILES as he picked off a 15 yard in route across the middle as he ripped the ball away from Tucker as both players had the ball.


Tucker only caught like 2 passes vs Banks.

In the second half Bc really ran the ball well as Joe Smith caught fire, and DICKENSON completed some nice passes, especially a nice deep corner to Clairmont.

The second half showed as BC outscored the Eskimos 13-3 and was starting to assert their will vs the Eskimos who were outmatched.

As I said before RAY is the 2nd best Qb in the league and this Lions defense makes him look bad at times with 3 picks. Even the lions players on defense and offense looked fast, lean and slick in their uniforms. They really have some athletes on defense as their is no weak link to throw against.

Bottom line in a passing league with only 3 downs having this kind of pass defense coupled with a good run defense = wins which = wins vs the spread for us.
 
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