CFL Squaretable for week 11
- Thread starter Hulu
- Start date
Hulu
#3DownNation
All good points Sammy Sammy, but here's whats holding me back from a Sask bet...
Too many times last year, I watched them have the same sort of 'avalanche' win at home in front of a packed, raucous house, only to go on the road a week later and look average or worse. They really seem to have one of the strongest home advantages in the league in their new stadium. Second only to Calgary. And they're on a 6-day week with travel, whereas BC is travelling home and has the extra day in hand. Second, Collaros looked like 2015 Collaros on Sunday but that's really the first time we've seen that since 2015. I'd like to see him string together a few good looking games and do it once or twice on the road before I'm ready to believe he's back. So while I think the X's and O's, coaching and personnel favour Sask, the situation doesn't and I really put a lot of weight on situational capping in the CFL.
Having said all that, I struggled with what to make the line and eventually settled on BC -1 but its the type of game that could be close and could go either way. A +3 on either side would be a value prop and at +3.5 a solid bet. Sask is trending that way and I see some juiced 3's out there so I may be in for a Sask bet.
Interesting tidbit, since the beginning of last year, Sask is 10-18 o/u. 7-7 at home but 3-11 o/u on the road. Its those 'avalanche' wins like I was saying. By avalanche I mean those sort of games where they just grab the momentum and the opponent gets rattled and the defence starts making big plays and it just sort of snowballs for them. They seem to have a lot of those types of momentum wins and the Calgary game was a prime example.
norwesterner
Pretty much a regular
Thanks for starting this thread. Reilly with a healthy group of Wrs as a dog seems like an auto-play. Hammy off a bye that dangerous?
I feel like I'm not seeing something right wirh the line move. I love how Edm wrs tend to step up when given the chance to win a 1 on 1 battle. Reilly's timing and ball placement are 2nd to none.
Argos price a but steep in la belle province?
Heading to a wedding in Vancouver Island this weekend and only get to watch the Thursday game. Hope all is well with everyone here. Our province and the world seems to be on fire/cooking.
I feel like I'm not seeing something right wirh the line move. I love how Edm wrs tend to step up when given the chance to win a 1 on 1 battle. Reilly's timing and ball placement are 2nd to none.
Argos price a but steep in la belle province?
Heading to a wedding in Vancouver Island this weekend and only get to watch the Thursday game. Hope all is well with everyone here. Our province and the world seems to be on fire/cooking.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I made the Esks -2 at Hamilton and was a little surprised to see them open +1 and was sure Edmonton would be favoured by kickofff. But the move to +3 has me baffled. I gave twitter a quick scour and really couldn't find any significant news that would account for that. Hamilton off a bye and Edmonton on a short week is about the only thing that can account for it. Reilly missed some practice for the birth of his second child but its not like he needs it. They are healthy again and to me, clearly the better team. Also, they lost to these Cats at home earlier in the year so they won't be taking them lightly.
And what's with the total? Both these defenses are above average. Edmonton is giving up around 20/game. I made it 53 and I never hesitate to take unders at Ivor Wynne. o/u since the new stadium was built is 9-22-1. Granted some of that can be explained by the Cats anemic offense over the past few years. Some of it can also be explained by the wind tunnel effect in that stadium.
As for the Argos, I made them -5 when I thought Manziel would be playing. Now that its Pipkin, I would make it 7.5. He showed a bit last week and looked better than last year but still barely managed 200 yards on 56% passing. I would lean toward laying the points here but its too close for me. I like the over much better. Toronto finally has some capable quarterbacking and Montreal has given up over 1100 yards in the past 2 weeks. They have given up >40 points in 3 out of their last 4 and it would've been 4/4 if Ottawa could've stopped turning the ball over in the redzone. On the flip side, the ALs offense has taken some baby steps and if they can show a little something at home, I think this flies over.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Does anyone else think Winnipeg getting 9 looks a bit inflated? I know Calgary is amazing at home and their loss at Sask probably woke them up a bit but I just think this could be a closer game than expected. The Stamps are 7-1 and clearly the best team in the league but they have yet to play #2 or #3. Their toughest opponents have been the Redblacks and Riders and Sask beat them. Even BC rolled into Calgary and stayed within 10. Everybody brings their 'A' game when playing the best.
After the Bombers debacle last week, I think they are a little bit pissed, or they should be anyway. Both Matt Nichols and Andrew Harris must be eager to make amends after being held in check for the most part.
I made this line 6.5. If you're going to give me the 7,8 & 9 to play with, I feel like I might just have to take the value.
After the Bombers debacle last week, I think they are a little bit pissed, or they should be anyway. Both Matt Nichols and Andrew Harris must be eager to make amends after being held in check for the most part.
I made this line 6.5. If you're going to give me the 7,8 & 9 to play with, I feel like I might just have to take the value.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Other roster notes:
Cats: NAT DL Justin Vaughn and reserve LB Nick Shortill both now gone for the year. Jalen Saunders is a GTD for Thursday
ALs: John Bowman back although not 100%. Tyrell Sutton will be out this week, replaced by John Stanback. ALs released CB Joe Rankin and WR TJ Graham (after that drop of a perfect deep throw last week)
Bombers: Tackle Jamarcus Hardrick missing practice in a knee brace. Not known if he will be back this week but that hurts as he is one of the top few tackles in the league
Lions: Offensive line dinged. Greaves not at practice today. C Cody Husband watching although he should be playing this week.
Cats: NAT DL Justin Vaughn and reserve LB Nick Shortill both now gone for the year. Jalen Saunders is a GTD for Thursday
ALs: John Bowman back although not 100%. Tyrell Sutton will be out this week, replaced by John Stanback. ALs released CB Joe Rankin and WR TJ Graham (after that drop of a perfect deep throw last week)
Bombers: Tackle Jamarcus Hardrick missing practice in a knee brace. Not known if he will be back this week but that hurts as he is one of the top few tackles in the league
Lions: Offensive line dinged. Greaves not at practice today. C Cody Husband watching although he should be playing this week.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Confirmed RT Hardrick is out this week This hurts.
Also with the Bumblers, they removed Dressler from the 6gm which is a pretty good indication he will play this week. By rule, teams only get a limited number of 'early pulls' from IR so you don't waste them on someone who won't be making an impact.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
I think awe is gonna be a pretty big factor
Lions play past the d line has been a huge issue
Lions play past the d line has been a huge issue
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
All things being equal, I think sasky wins this weekend
But after last week, like you say hulu, weve seen this spot so many times
But after last week, like you say hulu, weve seen this spot so many times
Hulu
#3DownNation
Same way I see it. Also I just realized today that BC is 3-0 at home and 0-5 on the road. They're not a team who has traditionally enjoyed a strong home field advantage except in one situation so that's a bit of a reversal.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Alouettes could get win #2 tonight.
1 unit Alouettes +6. scary I know but they face much more difficult teams until weeks 19 -21
1 unit Alouettes +6. scary I know but they face much more difficult teams until weeks 19 -21
Hulu
#3DownNation
Best of luck on that one. On paper the Argos are definitely the better team but the situation favours the ALs for sure.
Too many question marks for me there. How does Pipkin play this week? Does Sutton being out change the offense? There’s changes on the O line again. How does Macbeth look in his first road game? Does Bear Woods coming back (albeit with a club hand) solidify the Argos defence?
I’ll be watching though. Maybe there’ll be a 2H opp
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Wow impressive breakdown. The Al’s fit what I do and I stick within my means. Any bet on the Al’s this year is risky for sure.
Tomorrow I am on Peg with you. I think Nichols bounces back.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Good to hear it. I don’t think that line should’ve gone north of 7.
Stamps DC Devon Claybrooks has stepped away from the team indefinitely for medical reasons. Stay tuned.
This is major news and it’s way too under the radar IMO. Calgary had shown flaws their last 4 games before SlingBlade got them. DC is a great coordinator and losing him has to be a significant hit for the Stamps. Makes me like the points even more tomorrow.
Hulu
#3DownNation
It’s hard to tell what’s going on with such a vague statement. He might just have the flu but I think if it was something simple like that they’d say so.
I could see the players dig deep to put up a good performance for their coach. Or it could be a huge distraction. I don’t know how to cap it.
I should add it wasn’t an official statement from the organization. Dave Dikenson was questioned by reporters about DCs absence and that was his response.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I think last night confirms that Mike Archer is the worst DC in the entire league. He is as lost in his position as Mike Sherman is in his.
And now Cassius Vaughn has an achilles injury and will miss significant time if he comes back at all this year. The Argos defense gets worse
And now Cassius Vaughn has an achilles injury and will miss significant time if he comes back at all this year. The Argos defense gets worse
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