CFL Heads, get in this thread

[E.T.G.]

Outstanding, Sammy Meatballs, Champbasi, and anyone I missed who knows this league, I am sorry but you are needed here.


There use to be something on this forum called the "MDF" (Million Dollar Fund) and the idea was to take $50, set it aside and use that money only on plays which were as close to a lock as possible. The idea was to keep doubling up on plays. For example:

Play 1 = $50 to Win $50
Play 2 = $100 to Win $100
Play 3 = $200 to Win $200

Obviously with juice it would change a little but you get the idea, double up on every play and since this was a $50 investment there is no money management here and this money is seperate than your normal bankroll.


I have been tailing you guys and researching this league since last week and the lines are not even close to sharp on the CFL. I know there are a few reasons for that and we as a forum should take advantage of it. Below are the results from WK 2 and the Toronto game in WK 3


Winnipeg 32-23 win on -3.5 spread
BC 29-9 win on a -6.5 spread
Toronto 30-5 win on a -4 spread
Toronto up 48-8 on a -3 spread

As you can see, many of these games have not even been close to the spread.

The MDF lost momentum and its forum because there was no interest, it never got off the ground and there was a lack of communication. CFL sets up perfect to get the ball rolling because there are atleast 3 days for plays to be discussed and bet by everyone.

I am asking you guys to help get the ball rolling because you obviously know this league. Plays don't have to come every week but I have faith in you guys and these soft lines that they exist and will exist throughout the season.

For the rest of the season I hope you guys will help us out and nominate a game in this thread when you think it is going to be a blowout and the spread is wrong.


Thank you and I hope you guys participate.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I like the idea

I like the idea and actually thought about the same idea. My calculation was like 13 in a row.

50
100
300
600
1200
2400
4800
9600
19200
38400
76800
153600
307200
614400

We would need 14 games to hit this total, figures are a bit less cause I didn't factor in juice.

I think what we will see is higher favorites in the league. I wish I would have started this at the start of the season but I am 9-1 and I would have lost anyway, cause I lost one game.

I was thinking of adopting a similar strategy but by using all sports, as well. To get 14 in a row is very tough and in years past it would not work in Cfl. However this year it could have worked for maybe 5 solid plays. We would need another 9 plays.

I will start this anyway, maybe we don't have to hit 14 in a row, i would be happy with 20 grand or so if we hit 9 in a row. I have had great success taking the team again at half on the moneyline as well.

let's start it up as I know we can get close if we analyze the games. We were dead on with Calgary, Vegas thought they were good, i knew they were in disarray. Now our goal is to find the true value on a team and know how good they really are.

The league is small enough that i expect that we should be able to forecast results, and hit some 2nd half plays.

I watched Edmonton play last week, and in their first game vs Winnipeg. Edmonton Offense is pretty decent, they have a controlled passing game, they throw a lot of 9 yard routes on 1st down and then rely on Qb sneaks for the first down.

Edmonton defense is not that great but is decent however they could not stop Edmonton in game 1 at home. Edmonton looked good in game 2 in the first half of that game and moved the ball well vs Bc but could not score in the red zone.

Winnipeg can be dangerous on offence and then can be inconsistent at times.

 

[reNew Orleans]

I think this means I need to deposit 50 bucks into 5dimes and tail away.

 

[E.T.G.]

Sammy - This is for all sports, it won't happen just in CFL..


CFL is the starter for this. As we roll into CFB and NFL then NCABB and NBA, there will be more plays.

If 4 plays the rest of the season come from CFL, thats fine.

I repeat, this is to serve as a catalyst for the MDF. Don't think there needs to be a play every week.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

This can definintely work as like 4 years ago me and my bro were 18-4 in the Cfl. We didn't play them all.

Especially when there are these new Qb's from college or with no Cfl experience. The thing is that not only can we win these games, we can win the 2nd half as well. In the CFL teams are not letting down.

Some defences are so solid and positioned well that no rookie QB's are going to do anything vs them. Ex- Henry BURRIS was supposed to have the best offence in the league with Calgary and look at them vs 2 good defences.

We can get together and start it for sure, but what if we have a 2nd half CFL play how is the information going to be relayed to everyone in time?

 

[E.T.G.]

2nd half plays will be tough and the reality of it is that it won't get relayed within the 20minutes of halftime so its really not possible.

The idea is to find total mismatches compared to the line like BC-6.5 last week would be been MDF play #1. That line should have been double digits, BC went on to win by 20.

I think with the long season and the small league there are going to be games. The important part is that we get the games/matchups early so that they can be debated by the fellow CFL heads who know the game. If we came away with 4-5 plays by the time CFB started, I think that would be amazing.

At the end of the day you have to ask yourself; "If this was play #14, would I still bet it?" if the answer is Yes then it should be nominated as a play.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Do we run into any issues if online companies are reading this information, thus knowing what we are playing.

 

[CHAMPBASI]

Everythingthatsgreen, I see where you are coming from eventhough I'm hesitant to believe that there will be NO BAD LUCK and lose one game along the way. Like you've pointed out, this season has started extremely well with "no sweating out" of the games but can it last? Probably not and with higher spreads to come out in the next few weeks, I'm thinking that we may have to change gears and look for opportunities to take the dog (similar to stock market and buy low since some teams will be undervalued due to poor performance so far and some overvalued).

Sammy, I wouldn't worry about online companies reading our message boards. From what I've seen at the books that I look at, their lines are all the same so I'm not sure if one company is looking at our discussion that they would want to change their line and be different than the rest. The whole "safety in numbers" theory rather than make a stand and be different and of course put yourself at risk at getting one-sided action.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Everythingthatsgreen, I see where you are coming from eventhough I'm hesitant to believe that there will be NO BAD LUCK and lose one game along the way. Like you've pointed out, this season has started extremely well with "no sweating out" of the games but can it last? Probably not and with higher spreads to come out in the next few weeks, I'm thinking that we may have to change gears and look for opportunities to take the dog (similar to stock market and buy low since some teams will be undervalued due to poor performance so far and some overvalued).

Here is my take on the CFL:

Knowledge is power, and in a predominantly passing league the game rests on the shoulders of the quarterback, and the receivers and the O line who must protect the Qb. If one of these 3 areas is not playing well you will not have success moving the football. This is how I cap the offense of a team. Hamilton for ex is very bad in all 3 areas. Calgary is very bad in Qb and O line.

Defense I have to look at a team's ability to stop the pass. If they can cover and make it difficult for receivers to get open. So far BC and Toronto are the best in the league with super defences.

I take the line that Vegas sets up, and I play the game in my head and how i feel the game will go. I imagine all different scenarios.

Key point- Ex- When I imagine a scenario where my team struggles and my team is not playing that well and I still think they will cover because the other team's defence is weak, i know it is a very good play.

Ex- I thought Toronto would win about 30-9 tonight. however I figured in that my QB would struggle and I still thought they will still win by at least 7 points and cover.

I visualize and try to think of the score and the matchups on the field as teams have a lot of tape on each other.

We are going to run into more competitive games though as not every game can be a blowout.

Then i watch and make a second half play.

 

[E.T.G.]

Just got home guys, sorry didn't read it all but did skim through a few things.


Champs - bad luck is part of betting but remember it is a $50 investment. You don't have to double up everytime, it is really up to you on what you want to bet. Say we get to the point where it is time to lay $800 and you only want to lay $400, thats fine bro. I expect the spreads to get a little better but you guys have to remember something here, this is the CFL, not the NBA, not CFB, not CBB and so with that being said the amount of volume a book sees on these bets is typically going to be much less than the major US sports. With that being said their lines still are not going to be as sharp as they could/should be.

Sammy - I am not concerned about companies reading this website, there are a lot bigger forums on the net that if they were to invest time on, they would be over at the place with 50,000 users.

I want you guys to understand that this isn't going to happen overnight either. It is a type of thing where say in WK 6 you see a line or a situation that jumps out at you and when you analyze the game you feel the line is wrong.

You guys don't have to have an MDF play every week, however when you do cap the games and you see a game that sticks out, a game you call your game of the month or something, then you bring it here to this thread and you nominate it and you guys debate it and come to a conclusion.

I think a reasonable goal would be to come away with 3-5 MDF plays going into college football. This process will take time but we need to get the ball rolling here and I feel that you guys can do that.

 

[E.T.G.]

Guys I am going to Atlantic City for the day/night so I won't be around but if you have any questions then post them here. I will be back Saturday sometime.


I went ahead and played some games for Friday...

BC+3.5
BC Under 51
Winnipeg Over 52


Best of Luck to you guys today

 

[outstanding]

yeah this seasons CFL has started out a little too well IMO

 

[keith.line]

Alright, i guess im going to start this with the Play Of The Week plays, 3-0 this season which means 50 to 100 100 to 200 200 to 400, I post one a week and since i joined this ill make a note of that for the 400 to win 800 play because thats a pretty solid idea.

 

[E.T.G.]

Alright, i guess im going to start this with the Play Of The Week plays, 3-0 this season which means 50 to 100 100 to 200 200 to 400, I post one a week and since i joined this ill make a note of that for the 400 to win 800 play because thats a pretty solid idea.

Keith.line, welcome to the site. Hopefully you post your CFL thoughts here for everyone.


The MDF is something that doesn't occur every week. It is for the games which would be your "LOCKS" for lack of a better word. If you have one then please go ahead and post it in this thread and there are a few other guys that know CFL as well and you guys can debate the pro/con about it. From there basically the whole forum would be on this side.

We are yet to get PLAY #1 rolling but I thought it could get done here in CFL. I set the goal of 3-5 plays before College football but who knows, maybe we will have more, maybe we will have less.

I look forward to your thoughts and happy to see you at this site