CFB Wk 4

E.T.G.

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
15-6 +16.30

Had a solid day on my full game bets and then lost the 2 halftime bets I added. Don't drink and bet.

Only 1 game so far, will be adding them gradually this week.


Baylor -28 (2.2/2)
I like that Baylor is off a bye and home..Interestingly enough, Baylor has a bye following this game before playing WVU. It is a shitty set-up for a schedule but I don't mind it when it comes to betting them to score a massive amount of points. Why will Art Briles be able to get his team to take this game seriously? See last years 47-42 narrow win for Baylor. I love that ULM is off an upset win on the road against a BCS school, even if it was a shitty Wake team. ULM already played away @ Oklahoma and went down 34-0. Baylor may not have as good of a defense as Oklahoma but Oklahoma has no where near the offensive weapons that Baylor has. This is a game where Baylor will name their score and seeing as they've posted 69 and 70 points in their first 2 home games this season (Wofford, Buffalo) - Briles obviously has no problem with lighting up the scoreboard.
 
Good analysis, E T G . and Good Luck

I watched ULM-Wake last week and they are nothing special. :shake:
 
E.T.G. said:
15-6 +16.30

Had a solid day on my full game bets and then lost the 2 halftime bets I added. Don't drink and bet.

Only 1 game so far, will be adding them gradually this week.


Baylor -28 (2.2/2)
I like that Baylor is off a bye and home..Interestingly enough, Baylor has a bye following this game before playing WVU. It is a shitty set-up for a schedule but I don't mind it when it comes to betting them to score a massive amount of points. Why will Art Briles be able to get his team to take this game seriously? See last years 47-42 narrow win for Baylor. I love that ULM is off an upset win on the road against a BCS school, even if it was a shitty Wake team. ULM already played away @ Oklahoma and went down 34-0. Baylor may not have as good of a defense as Oklahoma but Oklahoma has no where near the offensive weapons that Baylor has. This is a game where Baylor will name their score and seeing as they've posted 69 and 70 points in their first 2 home games this season (Wofford, Buffalo) - Briles obviously has no problem with lighting up the scoreboard.
Click to expand...


You can say that again.and again..I did that enough on Saturday.

GL bro.
 
E.T.G. said:
I think line looks right, no interest in that game.

To everyone else, thank you very much.

SoCal -6.5 (2.2/2)

Thoughts later
Click to expand...

that's where im leaning too, to be honest. leaned hard to usc last week (in my thread), but never pulled that trigger. could i make the same mistake twice in a row???

anyhow, great start to the season bud.
 
VK said:
Hmm why usc?
Click to expand...

I know many on this forum have been burned by SoCal this season but I've been waiting on the sidelines until they showed me some sign of life and that happened against BC. Now, I hate Lame and I think he is a dipshit but he finally settled on a QB and the offense looked balance and complete last weekend. I think with the QB competition behind this offense now, everyone can focus on a complete game plan which is what I think we saw vs. BC. They have a lot of talent, speed, and athleticism on the offensive side of the ball but this was the first time they showed it all season. They got RBs, an elite WR in Lee and a future star in Agholor, talent at TE and a solid OL. I just don't feel like Utah St can stand toe to toe with them for a full 60 minutes on defense. The SoCal D has been fantastic all year which brings me to Chucky and Utah St. In the Aggies we have a QB that is a play maker but he does a bit too much for me - as in - being their leading rusher in their 2 real games this season. That won't cut it against a Trojan D that is very good and playing super football. They are athletic-big-fast-and this is where I see Chucky having problems because he won't be able to make those plays with his legs that he is used to making. They also have been able to get to the opposing QB a lot through 3 games and I think they can make Chucky feel very uncomfortable back there. So for me it comes down to SoCal being too athletically gifted on both sides of the ball for Utah St and with this game at home and the offensive train finally moving in the right direction, I'm expecting a DD win from the Trojans...Something along the lines of 31-17.
 
Updated Card:

Baylor -28 (2.2/2)
SoCal -6.5 (2.2/2)
Clemson -7 (1st half) (2.2/2)

I am considering Mich St. I will likely be on UGA 1st half when the line is available to me. Georgia Tech is on the lean list. Stanford is on the lean list. Colo St is on the lean list - looking to get +40 there. Arkansas is on the list,
 
Updated Card:

Baylor -28 (2.2/2)
SoCal -6.5 (2.2/2)
Clemson -7 (1st half) (2.2/2)
Colo St +40 (2.4/2)
Just added CSU to the card and bought it up to +40. I posted this in Bloodhound's thread yesterday as to why I have played this game:

My thinking here is with McElwain being a former Bammer coach that Saban has a good relationship with and the Tide off a big emotional road win that they've been thinking about / planning for a while.... Saban calls off the dogs in the 2nd half and they run their way back into the locker room getting a lot of young guys work with another SEC game on deck. I could see Bama 1st half bet cruising but CSU covering the game. If CSU can manage 1 TD, the chance of them covering looks pretty good to me..Looking back to last season, Bama beat WKU 35-0, FAU 40-7, and Western Carolina 49-0.

The young guys have gotten a lot of reps in practice this week so I am going to take my chances here going against Bama.
 
Put me in the category of unimpressed with Clemson tonight. As a Gamecock fan, I am licking my chops to see them on the road in Williams Brice in November. Clemson was very fortunate tonight and I expected to see a totally different looking team on the field. At the end of the day, a win is a win for the Tigers and it was a road conference game, but I won't be rushing to play them laying points on the road any time in the near future. I have to tip my hat to the Wolf-Pack, they gave a solid effort tonight and if that pick 6 is not canceled out by a timeout or Underwood doesn't nip the sideline on his way to the end zone (which wasn't reviewed!?) - who knows what the end result is. NCST absolutely deserved the cover tonight.
 
Last edited:
Baylor -28 (2.2/2)
SoCal -6.5 (2.2/2)
Clemson -7 (1st half) (2.2/2)
Colo St +40 (2.4/2)
UGA -19 (1st half) (2.2/2)
Fresno -4 (2.2/2)

 
How the bets breakdown through 3 weeks:

Favorites: 8-1 +13.80
Dogs: 2-1 +1.80
Totals: 2-0 +4.0
1st Halves: 3-0 +6.0
2nd Halves: 0-2 -3.30
ML Bets: 0-2 -6.0

Total = 15-6 +16.30
 
Pretty much final card:

Baylor -28 (2.2/2)
SoCal -6.5 (2.2/2)
Clemson -7 (1st half) (2.2/2)
Colo St +40 (2.4/2)
UGA -19 (1st half) (2.2/2)
Fresno -4 (2.2/2)
Wisky Over 48 (2.2/2)

 
Some quick thoughts:

UGA 1st Half:

Played 1st half because a home game with LSU looms the following week. Off a bye week and NT off a tight come from behind win vs. Ball St - this is a game where I see UGA coming out the gates quickly with Murray and Gurley providing the fire power in the 1st half and then the Dawgs hitting cruise control in the 2nd half which is why I have no interest in the full game line.

Wisky Over 48:

I see Wisconsin reaching high 30's - low 40's in this game and Purdue hitting somewhere in the high teens. Looking at something around 38-17, 41-17 in which case the game goes over by a full TD or more. Also worth noting, Wisconsin has scored 38, 62, 34, 37 the last 4 seasons against Purdue. Wisconsin has something special in RB Gordon, it is time to feed him the ball more because he is capable of a big play every time he touches the rock.

Some random SEC thoughts:

LSU/Auburn: First road game for Auburn and QB Nick Marshall. Mettenberger is playing some really good football right now and line looks about right to me. LSU should control this game from start to finish and a bigger game with UGA comes next week. No interest in playing this game.

Tenn/UF: Tenn first 2 results and posted scores were some what of a mirage. Now, Oregon is an elite elite elite team and while they embarrassed UTk, UF has no where near the offense to tempt me with this kind of spread. Driskell and the entire offensive staff has to show me something on offense before I lay this kind of number with them. UTk offense will have trouble all day vs. UF D but the Gators offense is just too ugly and out of sync for me to get involved here.
 
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