CFB Week 9

[BiffTFinancial]

Fave: Boston College -14
Dog: Vanderbilt +24'
Over: Georgia/Florida over 47
Under: Miami-Ohio/Ohio U under 39
TT Over: Penn State TT over 38'
TT Under: Nebraska TT under 20' (-120)

all -110 to win 1u unless noted otherwise

3-3 -0.35u YTD

 

[BiffTFinancial]

Initial leans:
Faves: Penn State -32, K State -17, Oregon -6'
Dogs: BYU +17', Kansas +10, Cal +10', Vandy +24', Arizona St +6'
Overs: UGA/UF over 48', OU/Kansas over 65, IU/PSU over 45', UNC/GT over 63', Cincy/Ok State over 53, Oregon/Utah over 48
Unders: Clemson/NCSU under 43', FSU/Wake under 51', Tennessee/Kentucky under 51'
TT Overs: UGA 31', Kansas 27', Oregon 27', Penn State 37'
TT Unders: Vols 27'

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck this week.

Oregon TT.

 

[BiffTFinancial]

Good luck this week.

Oregon TT.

Thanks BAR, you too. Great writeup and big play on UM last week.

 

[BiffTFinancial]

adding UGA/UF over 47

Both offenses more effective when passing, my biggest concern is UGA defense playing up to potential (and they are 3rd opp YPA and 1st opp 3rd down %). Still I think Dawgs challenge 40 points on their own so don't need much from Gators anyway. Think this is something like 40-20, 35-17 at worst.

 

[BiffTFinancial]

Initial leans:
Faves: Penn State -32, K State -17, Oregon -6'
Dogs: BYU +17', Kansas +10, Cal +10', Vandy +24', Arizona St +6'
Overs: UGA/UF over 48', OU/Kansas over 65, IU/PSU over 45', UNC/GT over 63', Cincy/Ok State over 53, Oregon/Utah over 48
Unders: Clemson/NCSU under 43', FSU/Wake under 51', Tennessee/Kentucky under 51'
TT Overs: UGA 31', Kansas 27', Oregon 27', Penn State 37'
TT Unders: Vols 27'

also eying BC -14

 

[BiffTFinancial]

adding BC -14

One team with lots of reason to play, the other one could well be in the process of packing it in for the season. Just what I want this time of year. Hafley at 4-3 has to all of a sudden think he can keep his job, but UConn 1-6 won't even be bowling. BC will the best player on the field with Tommy Gunn, a surprisingly effective big-play running game and a bad defense that shouldn't really be threatened by UConn because it can't exploit where Eagles are worst because they can't pass. UConn also pretty banged up after being short-handed from the outset, and looks to be in the process of quiet quitting. BC in the 30s and UConn in the teens (38-17?).

 

[BiffTFinancial]

adding Vandy +24' and Penn State TT over 38'

Both plays are all about the spots. Sandwich spot for Ole Miss between Auburn and A&M, and Vandy - poor as they are - hasn't lost to anyone by more than 24 this season. Vandy performs well as big road dog (9-4 ATS when catching more than 2 TDs) and Ole Miss apparently on a 1-7 ATS run as home fave (with the win being when they basically accidentally covered vs GT and Lane had to apologize to Key). Rebs have much bigger things on their schedule, motivation-wise, while Vandy (off a bye) does not. Reasoning for Penn State is pretty obvious. After the poor offensive showing in Columbus, Franklin will want to get confidence back in his guys and from the faithful asap with a visit from Michigan coming up in 2 weeks. He's great in the bully role and IU is the perfect target for his angst after last week.

 

[BiffTFinancial]

updated leans

Unders: Clemson/NCSU 44, FSU/Wake 52, Tennessee/Kentucky 51', Miami-OH/Ohio U 39, Purdue/Nebraska 39'
TT Unders: Vols 27', Wake 15', ECU 13', Nebraska 20'

 

[BiffTFinancial]

adding
Miami-Ohio/Ohio U under 39
Nebraska TT under 20' (-120)

 

[BiffTFinancial]

Struggled to choose my favorite of FSU/Wake under, UT/UK under and Miami/OU. Ultimately took the MAC game given the incredibly slow pace for both teams (we might not have more than 120 plays), Gabbert being out for Miami (and his replacement Aveon Smith being more runner than passer), and the fact that this is basically for the MAC East. Game should be played pretty tight.

Huskers under 20' over Vols under 27' because I wonder about UK defense after what UGA and Mizzou did to them. I don't think that Joe Milton is the guy to pick them apart, but still. I don't wonder about how the UNL offense will perform against the Boilers - with their injuries and lack of depth (not to mention talented starters), there's a good chance it could be a vintage Big Ten West rockfight to 12 points.

 

[B.A.R.]

adding Vandy +24' and Penn State TT over 38'

Both plays are all about the spots. Sandwich spot for Ole Miss between Auburn and A&M, and Vandy - poor as they are - hasn't lost to anyone by more than 24 this season. Vandy performs well as big road dog (9-4 ATS when catching more than 2 TDs) and Ole Miss apparently on a 1-7 ATS run as home fave (with the win being when they basically accidentally covered vs GT and Lane had to apologize to Key). Rebs have much bigger things on their schedule, motivation-wise, while Vandy (off a bye) does not. Reasoning for Penn State is pretty obvious. After the poor offensive showing in Columbus, Franklin will want to get confidence back in his guys and from the faithful asap with a visit from Michigan coming up in 2 weeks. He's great in the bully role and IU is the perfect target for his angst after last week.

Good analysis.

On board.

 

[2daBank]

adding Vandy +24' and Penn State TT over 38'

Both plays are all about the spots. Sandwich spot for Ole Miss between Auburn and A&M, and Vandy - poor as they are - hasn't lost to anyone by more than 24 this season. Vandy performs well as big road dog (9-4 ATS when catching more than 2 TDs) and Ole Miss apparently on a 1-7 ATS run as home fave (with the win being when they basically accidentally covered vs GT and Lane had to apologize to Key). Rebs have much bigger things on their schedule, motivation-wise, while Vandy (off a bye) does not. Reasoning for Penn State is pretty obvious. After the poor offensive showing in Columbus, Franklin will want to get confidence back in his guys and from the faithful asap with a visit from Michigan coming up in 2 weeks. He's great in the bully role and IU is the perfect target for his angst after last week.

1st thought was why not just lay the big -31 with psu as I’d expect Hoosiers score next to nothing but then I realize if we expect Hoosiers to score a td psu has to score this to cover anyways. Team total def makes more sense.

 

[2daBank]

Bc I like the ncst/clemson under lean even tho I don’t think ncst d as good this year. I was really hoping to get ncst tt under 17.5 but fuckers came with 16.5 on ncst of course: realky don’t see them hitting 17 without clemson offense giving up short fields, for most part clemson waits till they into scoring range to turn the ball over which great for the under. I don’t particularly trust ncst d like years past but clemson offense seems to find ways to shoot themselves in the foot veaa Aaa bull a a. In and over. I dunno if the qb change is really gonna matter for ncst? Bottom line they still running a generic version of cuse offense which no secret I can’t stand plus tigers just saw that cuse offense recently and shut them down rather easily. If tigers have no problem taking apart the cuse offense I can’t imagine they have much of any problems shutting this offense down.,

 

[KJ]

Nigeria could put a piece together than whatever this is OHBO

Wat a distaster

 

[BiffTFinancial]

Bc I like the ncst/clemson under lean even tho I don’t think ncst d as good this year. I was really hoping to get ncst tt under 17.5 but fuckers came with 16.5 on ncst of course: realky don’t see them hitting 17 without clemson offense giving up short fields, for most part clemson waits till they into scoring range to turn the ball over which great for the under. I don’t particularly trust ncst d like years past but clemson offense seems to find ways to shoot themselves in the foot veaa Aaa bull a a. In and over. I dunno if the qb change is really gonna matter for ncst? Bottom line they still running a generic version of cuse offense which no secret I can’t stand plus tigers just saw that cuse offense recently and shut them down rather easily. If tigers have no problem taking apart the cuse offense I can’t imagine they have much of any problems shutting this offense down.,

Good stuff, Bank, agree re: NCSU TT under. Clemson D will be the best unit on the field by a mile today. BOL!

 

[BiffTFinancial]

Fave: Boston College -14
Dog: Vanderbilt +24'
Over: Georgia/Florida over 47
Under: Miami-Ohio/Ohio U under 39
TT Over: Penn State TT over 38'
TT Under: Nebraska TT under 20' (-120)

all -110 to win 1u unless noted otherwise

3-3 -0.35u YTD

I mean...
Fave: Boston College -14 - bad pick. UConn didn't do much, but they hit two big plays to get them TDs and they certainly didn't quit. Castellanos got injured late but that wasn't the reason BC didn't cover. I lost this pick because I backed BC - the same BC that lost to Northern Illinois earlier this year - laying 2 TDs.
Dog: Vanderbilt +24' - proper loser. Ole Miss didn't run it up, so I wasn't off there. Vandy really is that bad, though.
Over: Georgia/Florida over 47 - easy winner
Under: Miami-Ohio/Ohio U under 39 - proper loser. Had more plays that I expected (I figured 125, they had 132) but that wasn't the problem. Miami hung points on the board 3 out of 4 possessions in 2nd and 3rd quarters (one possession was end of 1H and other was punt). Did not expect that with Gabbert out, oh well.
TT Over: Penn State TT over 38' - bad pick. I mean, it almost got there, but whoa was it ugly. This is the same IU defense that gave up 31 to Rutgers at home. Duly noted, though, Franklin numbers after annual losses to OSU and UM aren't great. I'll be sure to look him up again day after Thanksgiving at East Lansing. I'm sure he'll hang 50 then.
TT Under: Nebraska TT under 20' (-120) - bad pick. Some of the scores were fluky not fluky enough to feel good about the pick

1-5 -4.6u

4-8 -4.95u season to date