Colin Wynner
Pretty much a regular
Here is a look at the pick'em pool numbers (1213 entries) for week 8 in College Football. The pool lines freeze on Thursdays at 10AM MST and the picks are due by 5AM MST.
The CFB portion of the pool overall went 47.6% ATS last week and is a combined 47.9% in college thru the first 6 weeks of the pool (pool runs 18 weeks across the NFL season).
Top 20 picked games, lop-sided (Last week: 7-10, 32-31 on the season):
It seems this pool is easy, just plug in the higher ranked team or ranked team every week and collect free money. The only outlier is Duke, as the lower ranked team and public dog. I have the top three games above on my card - UCF +18, Minnesota +3.5 and Navy +10.5; I thought there was a good chance Navy would be at least even action and possibly a public dog.
There is really no rhyme or reason to the breaking at top 20, other than to highlight some of the more popular games, here are the rest of the CFB lop-sided games:
(5-4 last week, 52-67-1 overall):
Public Dogs (4-6-1 Last Week; 25-26-2 overall):
Most of these are relatively insignificant total numbers. The PSU/tOSU game is within the margin where books make money either way. What stands out is, again, Duke, and Stanford. I guess the week-to-week bias is real, as 200+ entries went down last week with Stanford's come back over the Buffs, bow a portion of those a rushing to get more points with Stanford.
Based on these public dogs - I think USC and Bama are the most appealing based on the numbers. I don't like that FSU/Duke game but that would be the logical choice to see a PD go up in flames with over 70% lop-sided action.
My Picks:
UCF +18
Minnesota +3.5
Navy +10.5
Colorado State +8 (CSU 46; UNLV 51)
Good luck!
The CFB portion of the pool overall went 47.6% ATS last week and is a combined 47.9% in college thru the first 6 weeks of the pool (pool runs 18 weeks across the NFL season).
Top 20 picked games, lop-sided (Last week: 7-10, 32-31 on the season):
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | CFB Rank |
| Oklahoma -18 over UCF | 221 | 25 | 89.8% | 10.2% | 246 | 2 |
| Iowa -3.5 over Minnesota | 185 | 30 | 86.0% | 14.0% | 215 | 3 |
| Air Force -10.5 over Navy | 141 | 54 | 72.3% | 27.7% | 195 | 4 |
| Duke +14.5 over Florida State | 47 | 126 | 27.2% | 72.8% | 173 | 5 |
| Missouri -7 over South Carolina | 146 | 25 | 85.4% | 14.6% | 171 | 6 |
| Ole Miss -6.5 over Auburn | 127 | 29 | 81.4% | 18.6% | 156 | 8 |
| Oregon -20 over Washington State | 105 | 35 | 75.0% | 25.0% | 140 | 10 |
| Wisconsin -2.5 over Illinois | 120 | 16 | 88.2% | 11.8% | 136 | 11 |
| Michigan -24 over Michigan State | 97 | 39 | 71.3% | 28.7% | 136 | 12 |
| Rutgers -5 over Indiana | 92 | 17 | 84.4% | 15.6% | 109 | 14 |
| North Carolina -23.5 over Virginia | 94 | 4 | 95.9% | 4.1% | 98 | 15 |
| James Madison -3.5 over Marshall | 73 | 18 | 80.2% | 19.8% | 91 | 17 |
It seems this pool is easy, just plug in the higher ranked team or ranked team every week and collect free money. The only outlier is Duke, as the lower ranked team and public dog. I have the top three games above on my card - UCF +18, Minnesota +3.5 and Navy +10.5; I thought there was a good chance Navy would be at least even action and possibly a public dog.
There is really no rhyme or reason to the breaking at top 20, other than to highlight some of the more popular games, here are the rest of the CFB lop-sided games:
(5-4 last week, 52-67-1 overall):
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | CFB Rank |
| SMU -20.5 over Temple | 57 | 14 | 80.3% | 19.7% | 71 | 21 |
| Memphis -6.5 over UAB | 56 | 13 | 81.2% | 18.8% | 69 | 22 |
| 39 | 12 | 76.5% | 23.5% | 51 | 27 | |
| Georgia Tech -4.5 over Boston College | 36 | 15 | 70.6% | 29.4% | 51 | 28 |
| Miami Ohio +2 over Toledo | 15 | 36 | 29.4% | 70.6% | 51 | 29 |
| San Diego State -13.5 over Nevada | 37 | 13 | 74.0% | 26.0% | 50 | 31 |
| Bowling Green -7.5 over Akron | 38 | 5 | 88.4% | 11.6% | 43 | 33 |
| Coastal Carolina -10 over Arkansas State | 33 | 10 | 76.7% | 23.3% | 43 | 35 |
| BYU +3 over Texas Tech | 10 | 32 | 23.8% | 76.2% | 42 | 36 |
| Central Michigan -4.5 over Ball State | 31 | 4 | 88.6% | 11.4% | 35 | 39 |
| Georgia State +3 over Louisiana | 5 | 17 | 22.7% | 77.3% | 22 | 44 |
| Eastern Michigan +12 over Northern Ill | 3 | 15 | 16.7% | 83.3% | 18 | 46 |
Public Dogs (4-6-1 Last Week; 25-26-2 overall):
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | CFB Rank |
| Penn State +4.5 over Ohio State | 145 | 165 | 46.8% | 53.2% | 310 | 1 |
| Duke +14.5 over Florida State | 47 | 126 | 27.2% | 72.8% | 173 | 5 |
| Tennessee +8.5 over Alabama | 64 | 106 | 37.6% | 62.4% | 170 | 7 |
| Utah +7 over USC | 68 | 87 | 43.9% | 56.1% | 155 | 9 |
| Stanford +17 over UCLA | 22 | 32 | 40.7% | 59.3% | 54 | 26 |
| Miami Ohio +2 over Toledo | 15 | 36 | 29.4% | 70.6% | 51 | 29 |
| Oklahoma State +3.5 over West Virginia | 21 | 22 | 48.8% | 51.2% | 43 | 34 |
| BYU +3 over Texas Tech | 10 | 32 | 23.8% | 76.2% | 42 | 36 |
| Baylor +3.5 over Cincinnati | 19 | 21 | 47.5% | 52.5% | 40 | 37 |
| North Texas +20 over Tulane | 12 | 15 | 44.4% | 55.6% | 27 | 41 |
| Utah State +4 over San Jose State | 12 | 13 | 48.0% | 52.0% | 25 | 43 |
| Georgia State +3 over Louisiana | 5 | 17 | 22.7% | 77.3% | 22 | 44 |
| Eastern Michigan +12 over Northern Ill | 3 | 15 | 16.7% | 83.3% | 18 | 46 |
| Florida Atlantic +3 over UT San Antonio | 7 | 11 | 38.9% | 61.1% | 18 | 47 |
Most of these are relatively insignificant total numbers. The PSU/tOSU game is within the margin where books make money either way. What stands out is, again, Duke, and Stanford. I guess the week-to-week bias is real, as 200+ entries went down last week with Stanford's come back over the Buffs, bow a portion of those a rushing to get more points with Stanford.
Based on these public dogs - I think USC and Bama are the most appealing based on the numbers. I don't like that FSU/Duke game but that would be the logical choice to see a PD go up in flames with over 70% lop-sided action.
My Picks:
UCF +18
Minnesota +3.5
Navy +10.5
Colorado State +8 (CSU 46; UNLV 51)
Good luck!
