Colin Wynner
Pretty much a regular
Here is a look at the pick'em pool numbers (1207 entries) for week 7, pool overall went 42.8% combined last week and is off to a horrendous 33.4% start to this week thanks to Prime's epic choke job.
Top 20 picked games, lop-sided (Last week: 6-7, 25-21 on the season), already 1-2 on the week:
While I am not surprised that the top picked game is USC/ND, I am floored that USC is the lop-sided play; I thought for sure the Domers would be the overwhelming pick. This is a more west coast based pool (originated in Colorado) so there is some regional bias (see Colorado) that still seems to be opposed to the general public. Could be the pool is getting sharper or just stumbling into a "sharp" pick based on regional bias. The numbers of overall college plays are slightly down this week from a normal 57-60% of the overall picks to just 55% this week. That is probably the result of the stale line in the 49ers game and the number of picks on that game.
The rest of the lop-sided games (3-10 last week, 47-63-1 overall):
Public Dogs (4-7 Last Week; 21-20-1 overall):
My picks:
Arkansas +20 (Arkansas 33 picks, Bama 38)
Purdue +19.5
Illinois +14
Georgia State -1 (GAST 19, Marshall 9)
Pittsburgh +7.5
Nevada +9.5
New Mexico +8
That is some big time trash, I only have matchup stats to back up Georgia State, but it feels like sleepy spot for these favorites as the "DUE" system in play for the dogs.
tOSU is missing Egbuka, not sure they want to show a whole lot with Penn State on deck.
If not now for Illinois, then when? Maryland off a great effort with a disappointing result.
The spot for Pittsburgh could not be better, off a bye, at home with the Ville riding high. I don't fully trust the Nard-dog, but much like Illinois, you cannot find a better spot to notch an ATS win and make the boosters happy.
Nevada/UNLV throw out the records when these silver state rivals hook up
. Good spot for Nevada, though I have been impressed by UNLV.
Gonzales guaranteed a bowl after losing to New Mexico State; pretty bold statement for a team that hasn't sniffed 4 wins since 2016. Well, Danny boy, if that guarantee is going to happen, this a must-win game. They imported some skilled players, it has taken a bit of time to gel but I think they might be a bet on team the rest of the year. At some point there has to be a progression to the mean, no? In the last five full seasons, the Lobos are 15-44 ATS - it's literally been "show up to Isleta sports book on Sunday to pick up your free money for another ATS defeat by your New Mexico Lobos."
Good Luck!
Top 20 picked games, lop-sided (Last week: 6-7, 25-21 on the season), already 1-2 on the week:
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | CFB Rank |
| USC +2.5 over Notre Dame | 78 | 191 | 29.0% | 71.0% | 269 | 1 |
| 217 | 27 | 88.9% | 11.1% | 244 | 2 | |
| North Carolina -3.5 over Miami | 168 | 42 | 80.0% | 20.0% | 210 | 3 |
| Duke -3 over NC State | 171 | 7 | 96.1% | 3.9% | 178 | 5 |
| Louisville -7.5 over Pittsburgh | 132 | 37 | 78.1% | 21.9% | 169 | 6 |
| Ohio State -19.5 over Purdue | 111 | 32 | 77.6% | 22.4% | 143 | 7 |
| 120 | 12 | 90.9% | 9.1% | 132 | 8 | |
| Kansas -3 over Oklahoma State | 94 | 19 | 83.2% | 16.8% | 113 | 10 |
| Kentucky -2.5 over Missouri | 93 | 18 | 83.8% | 16.2% | 111 | 12 |
| Tennessee -3 over Texas A&M | 78 | 29 | 72.9% | 27.1% | 107 | 13 |
| Washington State -8 over Arizona | 82 | 24 | 77.4% | 22.6% | 106 | 14 |
| Florida State -17.5 over Syracuse | 90 | 15 | 85.7% | 14.3% | 105 | 15 |
| Utah -11 over California | 91 | 10 | 90.1% | 9.9% | 101 | 16 |
| Fresno State -4.5 over Utah State | 80 | 17 | 82.5% | 17.5% | 97 | 17 |
| Maryland -14 over Illinois | 81 | 10 | 89.0% | 11.0% | 91 | 18 |
| 81 | 9 | 90.0% | 10.0% | 90 | 19 | |
| 58 | 15 | 79.5% | 20.5% | 73 | 20 |
While I am not surprised that the top picked game is USC/ND, I am floored that USC is the lop-sided play; I thought for sure the Domers would be the overwhelming pick. This is a more west coast based pool (originated in Colorado) so there is some regional bias (see Colorado) that still seems to be opposed to the general public. Could be the pool is getting sharper or just stumbling into a "sharp" pick based on regional bias. The numbers of overall college plays are slightly down this week from a normal 57-60% of the overall picks to just 55% this week. That is probably the result of the stale line in the 49ers game and the number of picks on that game.
The rest of the lop-sided games (3-10 last week, 47-63-1 overall):
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | CFB Rank |
| Ohio -6.5 over Northern Ill | 50 | 9 | 84.7% | 15.3% | 59 | 28 |
| UNLV -9.5 over Nevada | 46 | 12 | 79.3% | 20.7% | 58 | 29 |
| South Florida -2.5 over Florida Atlantic | 40 | 6 | 87.0% | 13.0% | 46 | 31 |
| SMU -12.5 over East Carolina | 29 | 10 | 74.4% | 25.6% | 39 | 35 |
| Navy -3 over Charlotte | 29 | 9 | 76.3% | 23.7% | 38 | 38 |
| North Texas -6 over Temple | 29 | 3 | 90.6% | 9.4% | 32 | 41 |
| Miami Ohio -8.5 over Western Michigan | 22 | 9 | 71.0% | 29.0% | 31 | 42 |
| Toledo -17 over Ball State | 20 | 4 | 83.3% | 16.7% | 24 | 45 |
| Texas State -16.5 over La-Monroe | 14 | 2 | 87.5% | 12.5% | 16 | 48 |
Public Dogs (4-7 Last Week; 21-20-1 overall):
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | CFB Rank |
| USC +2.5 over Notre Dame | 78 | 191 | 29.0% | 71.0% | 269 | 1 |
| BYU +6 over TCU | 23 | 43 | 34.8% | 65.2% | 66 | 26 |
| Wake Forest +1.5 over Virginia Tech | 15 | 18 | 45.5% | 54.5% | 33 | 40 |
| Florida +2.5 over South Carolina | 33 | 36 | 47.8% | 52.2% | 69 | 24 |
| Akron +12 over Central Michigan | 7 | 9 | 43.8% | 56.3% | 16 | 47 |
| Oregon +3 over Washington | 74 | 120 | 38.1% | 61.9% | 194 | 4 |
| New Mexico +8 over San Jose State | 6 | 9 | 40.0% | 60.0% | 15 | 49 |
| Auburn +11 over LSU | 28 | 36 | 43.8% | 56.3% | 64 | 27 |
| Wyoming +10.5 over Air Force | 48 | 65 | 42.5% | 57.5% | 113 | 11 |
| UAB +9 over UT San Antonio | 5 | 10 | 33.3% | 66.7% | 15 | 50 |
| Colorado State +7.5 over Boise State | 14 | 32 | 30.4% | 69.6% | 46 | 32 |
My picks:
Arkansas +20 (Arkansas 33 picks, Bama 38)
Illinois +14
Georgia State -1 (GAST 19, Marshall 9)
Pittsburgh +7.5
New Mexico +8
That is some big time trash, I only have matchup stats to back up Georgia State, but it feels like sleepy spot for these favorites as the "DUE" system in play for the dogs.
tOSU is missing Egbuka, not sure they want to show a whole lot with Penn State on deck.
If not now for Illinois, then when? Maryland off a great effort with a disappointing result.
The spot for Pittsburgh could not be better, off a bye, at home with the Ville riding high. I don't fully trust the Nard-dog, but much like Illinois, you cannot find a better spot to notch an ATS win and make the boosters happy.
Nevada/UNLV throw out the records when these silver state rivals hook up
. Good spot for Nevada, though I have been impressed by UNLV.Gonzales guaranteed a bowl after losing to New Mexico State; pretty bold statement for a team that hasn't sniffed 4 wins since 2016. Well, Danny boy, if that guarantee is going to happen, this a must-win game. They imported some skilled players, it has taken a bit of time to gel but I think they might be a bet on team the rest of the year. At some point there has to be a progression to the mean, no? In the last five full seasons, the Lobos are 15-44 ATS - it's literally been "show up to Isleta sports book on Sunday to pick up your free money for another ATS defeat by your New Mexico Lobos."
Good Luck!
Last edited:
