CFB Week 6: What did we learn?

[RambleOn]

I know Joe Public usually starts these, but I am interested in hearing your thoughts. I don't want sarcastic responses either, I'm meaning this as a serious thread.

I contemplated tucking my tail between my legs and taking time off from college football after ANOTHER horrible day off college football. But then I realized that I love this and I'd rather try to figure out what I'm doing wrong.

Here's what I what I learned and/or want to change:

#1: I heard dogs went 31-16 today, not counting a handful of late games. We all know how many top teams have not only failed to cover, but have lost SU as well to some big dogs. This is a crazy year. And I know everyone on this site thinks they are the sharpest thing since Phil Steele, but from what I can see, the majority of people on here are public bettors, betting mostly favorites and some dogs. Not everyone, but the majority. I include myself in that generalization. I bet two dogs today, both of which won. I also WANTED to bet UAB and Cincy, but got scared away. I really want to start looking at dogs in a different light, and figuring out ways in which they can win. Maybe use the dogs as a starting point and move to the favorites once the dogs have been eliminated?

#2: Early line recon squad isn't working. As a matter of fact, I'm pretty sure that it hasn't helped me one bit. I look back on the past two weeks and see that all of my early plays lose, while the plays I have longer to think about win. So, no more bets on Sunday. In rare circumstances I will make a play maybe 2, but no more of this making 5 or 6 plays. I want to incorporate line movement, watch for injuries, team news, and basically let the lines come to me instead of ambushing them at open. Thoughts on this?

#3: Quit adding big plays late. This isn't something I learned today, but something that is hard for me to do - not add to late plays when I am having a bad day. Need to find the concentration to stick to my guns.

#4: Finally, I learned that some 2nd Half lines can be very weak. I think Rex has expounded upon this before. On midweek games, I want to start laying off until half time, and see if I can find a gem.

That's what I've got to say. I'd like to see some of YOUR thoughts. :shake:

 

[Dmoney416]

General stuff:

1. I don't think you should necessarily question your betting tendencies or strategies over these crazy two weeks. If you (or anyone else) is a long-term winner, then stick with what works. If not, tinker with your strategy until it works.

2. I for one believe that early lines are extremely important and are pretty much the reason I am up on the season at this point. Early lines have yielded 3-4 wins in the last couple weeks that would have been losses had I played the closing line. Of course, everyone has their own strategy here, but I am an early line guy for the most part.

3. Don't over-analyze all the time. The more I think about it, there is no reason why I shouldn't have bet UAB +18 today. Yes, Miss St. almost grabbed the frontdoor cover, but they were starting their 3rd stringer and really don't deserve to be favored by that much in that situation. UAB is bad, but they do not give up and were in this one for about 80% of the game.

4. Don't be afraid to fade bad teams that are favored. This will not always work, but do not be afraid to do it. Army -7 vs. Tulane. Why is Army -7 against anyone? N. Ill -4 at Temple. Does N. Ill deserve to be a road favorite at Temple homecoming? Comin into their 3rd straight road game? This, of course can backfire at times, but don't be afraid to pull the trigger on these less glamorous games.

Specific stuff:

1. The MAC is completely up in the air once again. Ball St., who looked to be the class of the conference, is now jumbled in with the rest of the pack again. OVERS can be golden in this conf. in general as very few teams play D.

2. Asking teams to play road games against lesser competition in the midst of a conference schedule is tough. USF and Virginia both struggled until the end today. No matter how you slice it, it is tough to get up for these games.

3. The ACC is also generally unpredictable.


I probably have more, but I'm still digesting what was a great slate of night games.

 

[hoopsstar22]

Here is my list....

#1 - I need to trust my 1-AA plays. Just because these games seem to be Taboo to most, and no one wants to talk about them, doesn't mean anything. I seem to be properly analyzing these games, and cutting through the bullshit more so than in 1-A games.

#2 - I need to quit working on Saturday nights. Since I leave for work at 3, I miss out on a good deal of the evening games. I am able to watch most of them, but that's not enough. I've done very well with 2H wagers I have placed. I don't make them a lot, only averaging 2 per week, but hitting those at greater than 70% so far, have both saved me money (from hedging out of an unfavorable game) and also made me money (by playing a game that I hadn't originally, but feel that I have an edge in after watching a half). But working at night, limits the amount of games i can play on, ultimately putting me at a potential disadvantage.

#3 - I need to quit betting on Sunday's also. I tie up too much of my roll early in the week, and as a result, don't feel comfortable adding games to my card, to have too much at risk for the weekend.

#4 - I need to continue the outstanding record keeping that I have been doing. I basically have tracked nearly every single dollar that has came into my accounts, and left my accounts. Going into Week 5, my notebook was a whole $4.90 off, I'll take it. Every play, all the juice, everything. Also, this will allow me to sit down at the end of the season and analyize which plays I have excelled in, and which plays I didn't, to give me a better idea of where to look next season. Dogs, Favs, totals, team totals, 2 unit plays, etc.

#5 - I need to continue my money management program. After the last two weeks, I can see with my own eyes what this has done. I had increased my roll by almost 40% after weeks 1-4, primarily flat betting. But last weekend, I got absolutely embarrassed in 1-A, and lost all of the profit. But I didn't panic, I didn't chase with the NFL, and stuck to my guns. As a result, I enjoyed a wonderful day today, and got almost 1/2 of the huge loss back. Staying in control at all times is an absolute must.


Great thread Ramble.

 

[HUNT]

I think with how crazy this season is throw any strategy out..nothing works..maybe take every ML dog offered.

 

[RambleOn]

Good to hear from ya, Dmoney. I am actually interested in hearing which lines you got early that would have been losers.

The last two weeks, here are the major bets I bet early that the lines moved:

Last WeeK:

Rutgers -13 (moved to 18) LOST
Tulsa -18 (moved to 23) LOST
Oregon -3 (moved to 7) LOST

This week:

Oklahoma -9.5 (moved to 12.5) LOST

0-4 on games I bet Sunday because I knew the line would move. I think that is significant, for some reason. All very public plays I guess and maybe I would have bet the other side had I waited (Cal getting 7 was sick value I think).

As far as everything else, good thoughts.

 

[RambleOn]

Here is my list....

#1 - I need to trust my 1-AA plays. Just because these games seem to be Taboo to most, and no one wants to talk about them, doesn't mean anything. I seem to be properly analyzing these games, and cutting through the bullshit more so than in 1-A games.

#2 - I need to quit working on Saturday nights. Since I leave for work at 3, I miss out on a good deal of the evening games. I am able to watch most of them, but that's not enough. I've done very well with 2H wagers I have placed. I don't make them a lot, only averaging 2 per week, but hitting those at greater than 70% so far, have both saved me money (from hedging out of an unfavorable game) and also made me money (by playing a game that I hadn't originally, but feel that I have an edge in after watching a half). But working at night, limits the amount of games i can play on, ultimately putting me at a potential disadvantage.

#3 - I need to quit betting on Sunday's also. I tie up too much of my roll early in the week, and as a result, don't feel comfortable adding games to my card, to have too much at risk for the weekend.

#4 - I need to continue the outstanding record keeping that I have been doing. I basically have tracked nearly every single dollar that has came into my accounts, and left my accounts. Going into Week 5, my notebook was a whole $4.90 off, I'll take it. Every play, all the juice, everything. Also, this will allow me to sit down at the end of the season and analyize which plays I have excelled in, and which plays I didn't, to give me a better idea of where to look next season. Dogs, Favs, totals, team totals, 2 unit plays, etc.

#5 - I need to continue my money management program. After the last two weeks, I can see with my own eyes what this has done. I had increased my roll by almost 40% after weeks 1-4, primarily flat betting. But last weekend, I got absolutely embarrassed in 1-A, and lost all of the profit. But I didn't panic, I didn't chase with the NFL, and stuck to my guns. As a result, I enjoyed a wonderful day today, and got almost 1/2 of the huge loss back. Staying in control at all times is an absolute must.


Great thread Ramble.

Good stuff. :shake: Seems like we're on the same page with the early betting and 2nd H lines.

 

[RambleOn]

I think with how crazy this season is throw any strategy out..nothing works..maybe take every ML dog offered.

Maybe so, HUNT. I really think that this season there is going to be a lot of value in the dogs. And I know it sounds weird, but you know there are going to be those people who say, "Okay, now it's time for the favorites to cover.", so I STILL think we'll be getting good value on dogs, even after the last two crazy weeks.

 

[Joe Public]

At the end of last bowl season I sort of devised a little cheat sheet that I intend to put into practice this year, but I'm starting to think parts of it could apply every week.

Things such as:

1. Are you compensating, points-wise, if you are betting the inferior coach?

Example, I consider Carl Dorrell to be bad enough to be worth seven points to the other team. So tonight that took the line over four TDs, with like their third QB on the field. No way I bet them in that situation. Frankly, I should have looked at ND.

Clemson was another one of these today. That guy can fit two entire ball sacks in his mouth at one time, I just know it, truthfully I'm surprised there aren't pictures of it on the Internet yet. But the hell I was going to bet on them in this spot if only because of this factor.

2. Are you betting a young/bad QB?

If you see a really bad QB in there this is usually a must bet against in the NFL, but in college you can get away with having a not very good QB on your side at times. Look at Penn. St. today. If you have a great defense or a game breaker at RB, depending on the matchup, you may still be all right, but again, how many points is that going to cost you.

At this point in the season I think you should know both of these things about the teams you're playing.

 

[RambleOn]

Joe -

Good points. I'm not going to lie and say that I can tell you how much better one coach is than another. I know about a couple of coaches, but that aspect doesn't always make it into my handicapping. Perhaps I should work on that.

#2, most definitely.

 

[Dmoney416]

Ramble, here are the early catches:

Last week:

Colorado St. +13 @ TCU (Closing line: +9.5/+10): TCU Wins 24-12

Oregon St./UCLA Under 56.5 (I got it at 55) (Closing line: 52/52.5): UCLA Wins 40-14

This week:

Indy/Minny Over 51 (Closing line: 66): Indy wins 40-20 (This was simply a mistake by the linesmakers and shouldn't really count, but it was there at the open)

TCU +4 (This opened at TCU -1 I think, so while it was not an opener, it was at TCU +4 for a time on Monday/Tuesday): Wyoming wins 24-21

 

[spanishshark]

Winning streaks end before they begin :4_12_13::4_12_12:

 

[carolinablue]

Ramble - Great post, thanks for starting it up this week.

I won't argue one way or the other with regard to the points already posted by everyone here in this thread, as in the end everyone has gotta do what works best for them, and what they feel is the best direction for them to go. As for me personally, I stuck to my guns this week when I could have changed course big time after that horrific week 5, and as a result I was back in the profit after only one bad week. Now that doesn't mean I won't make changes in week 7, as I will, and I will note those in a sec, but it does mean I won't make wholesale changes, because I honestly believe that my strategies will bring me long term profit by season's end, because I have seen the results year after year, so like I said in my week 5 post, 1 or 2 bad weeks won't change that.

All I am saying is, trust yourself enough to do what you think is best so in the end you have no one to blame but yourself for your losses, as the toughest thing in the world is to go against your gut because of something you read or a new technique that seems to be the the way to go and then you end up losing that play or not playing one you were convinced was a winner, because you abandoned your core capping strategies. While I agree that a change of course is necessary if you don't believe you are taking everything important into account, you just gotta be careful that you aren't potentially taking a bad problem and making it even worse.

One example is with the early lines. For me that strategy is working, as I have 5 cases so far this season where the early line I got at open helped me to either win or get a push vs the line I would have gotten if I had waited. I play with decent sized units, so 5 instances out of 40 plays on the season is a big deal to me as that swing from a win to a loss is not insignificant, and this fact actually holds true for most regardless of unit size. Some examples were Hawaii in week 1 where I got 53 and 55 and the line was 59 by kickoff (63-6 final) and WVU in week 2 where I got 24.5 and the line was 25.5 at kickoff (48-23). I have others, but these are just 2 examples as I look through my notes real quick.

To give you another example, this one on favs...As I look over my numbers for the year (28-21), I see that I am only 11-7 on road favs but 2-1 on road dogs. Now that could make me jump to the conclusion that I need to start playing more road dogs, but as I look closer at the numbers, I see that 6 of my 7 road fav losses were when I took a road fav at -3 or less. On those road favs that were 3.5 or higher, I am 10-1 this year, so that tells me I should stop focusing my efforts against the slight road favs, hoping they win a nailbiter, and zero in more on the larger road favs who are supposed to win convincingly even though they are on the road. I have done this type of analysis on all of my numbers each week, and it is interesting to see where I am doing well and where I am not. This to me is the key to making changes in strategies, as often times all we need are slight tweaks rather than going the route of blowing the entire thing up and starting over from scratch.

Sorry for the long winded post, but just wanted to add a few of my thoughts to help where I can, because that is what this site is all about. All of you guys are solid contributors and cappers by the way, so don't let the mental aspect of this game cause you the get off track. There is a long season still to go and plenty of profit still to be made.