CFB Week 5

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Week 4 was the epitome of bad luck for me! Had ND/under tease that went south with two picks for TD's in last 4 minutes, Missouri loses in OT, Clem/NCST under pushes in 2OT, and MSU laying 4 wins by 3 in OT. Anyway, I couldn't overcome those losses and took a beating this past week. Hope for better luck in Week 5.

YTD Record
Sides 10-12, -4.33u
Totals 5-3-2, +1.7u
1H Sides 2-0 +2.0u
Parlays 0-1, -1.0u
Teasers 0-3 -3.0u
Overall 17-19-2, -4.63u

119/120 Minn/Purdue under 48 -114 1*
123 LA Tech +17.5 -108 1*
129 Army -2, 142 WF -1 Tease +100 1*
131/132 Indiana/Penn State under 52 -110 1*
171 Ole Miss +15.5 -108 1*
179/180 Arkansas/GA under 50 -108 1.5*
185/186 Texas/TCU over 65.5 -108 1*
197/198 LSU -3 -108 1*
 
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Injury news

UCLA (-3.5) vs. Arizona State

ATL: UCLA -2.4

UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson missed a play after injuring his shoulder against Stanford last week. But he returned to throw one more touchdown pass. He took another hit on that play.

Thompson-Robinson did not speak with the media after the Stanford game. His status for this weekend’s game against ASU is up in the air.



Missouri (-3) vs. Tennessee

ATL: Missouri -1.1

Tennessee Vols quarterback Hendon Hooker was injured in the fourth quarter of Saturday's loss against the Florida Gators.

"I don't know where we're at (with Hendon Hooker's status) at this point," Vols HC Josh Heupel said after the game. Joe Milton, who began the year as the starter before suffering an injury of his own, replaced Hooker on Saturday. Milton will start if Hooker can’t go.

The Vols are also currently dealing with injuries to their offensive and defensive lines.



Wake Forest (-6.5) vs. Louisville

ATL: Wake Forest -6.1

Louisville starting LB Monty Montgomery will miss the rest of the season with a torn right ACL. He was injured a little over a week ago against UCF.

Montgomery is one of Louisville's best defenders. He had eight sacks and 12.5 TFL between 2019-2020. Montgomery will be replaced by Jaylin Alderman, who had a big late-game interception to seal the win over UCF.

The Cardinals also lost sophomore WR Braden Smith for the rest of the season with torn knee ligaments. More of a role player, Smith had a 11-68-1 receiving line in 2021.



NC State (-18.5) vs. Louisiana Tech

ATL: NCSU -22.5

Louisiana Tech announced shortly before kickoff against North Texas over the weekend that star QV Austin Kendall wouldn’t play due to “medical reasons.” It was the first we’d heard of Kendall’s medical issue.

Forced to turn to backups Aaron Allen and JD Head, LTU prevailed 24-17 anyway. The Bulldogs have not yet updated Kendall’s status for this weekend’s game at NC State.



Oklahoma State (-4) vs. Baylor

ATL: OSU -1.0

Baylor upset Iowa State 31-29 last weekend. But the heart and soul of the Bears’ defense, LB Terrel Bernard, suffered a knee injury in the upset win. The fear is that it will cost him the rest of the season.

“Find out more on Monday. We’re fearful that it might be a tear of the meniscus,” Baylor HC Dave Aranda said after the game. “We’ll have to see.” Aranda has already basically ruled out Bernard for Oklahoma State.

Last year, Bernard was playing like an All-American for five games before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Baylor’s offense has exceeded expectations during the 4-0 start. That unit is going to have to be even better with Bernard on the sideline.

On Okie State’s side, the Cowboys lost starting DE Brock Martin to an arm injury during a 31-20 victory against Kansas State on Saturday at Boone Pickens Stadium,

“I think that he will be back in a few weeks,” HC Mike Gundy said. “I don’t think it was something that would end the season. He’s had some shoulder problems and stuff, and I think he’s got it dinged up again.”

The Cowboys’ depth on the edge will be tested, especially with DE Trace Ford out for the season following two ACL tears.



Clemson (-16) vs. Boston College

ATL: Clemson -13.6

Clemson is dealing with major injury concerns at the moment. Star DT Bryan Bresee tore his ACL in the second half of Saturday's 27-21 loss to NC State and is out for the season. Bresee is one of the most disruptive forces in America.

Clemson was already dealing with depth issues at the position with fellow starting DT Tyler Davis out for the next two months with a bicep injury.

The Tigers are also dealing with major backfield depth issues following frosh RB Will Shipley's leg injury. HC Dabo Swinney expects Shipley to miss 3-4 weeks. RB Lyn-J Dixon recently entered the transfer portal after Shipley won the starting job. So it appears that Kobe Pace is going to have to handle a bellcow role for the next month.

Meanwhile, Clemson appears to have avoided a scare on redshirt senior LB James Skalski. Skalski left Saturday's loss with a shoulder injury. But Swinney says Skalski should be fine.

Boston College has weathered its own major injury -- the season-ending wrist injury suffered by star QB Phil Jurkovec -- to start 4-0. RB Pat Garwo looks great and the defense has exceeded expectations. QB Dennis Grosel, however, has been shaky in two starts.

Can Boston College continue its run of magic against a depleted Clemson roster? Or will the Tigers wake up and roar at home this weekend?



Oregon (-8) at Stanford

ATL: Oregon -8.9

Oregon DE Kayton Thibodeaux returned to the field on Saturday against Arizona after missing two-plus games with a left ankle sprain. But he left the win over the Wildcats in the second quarter after landing awkwardly.

Ducks HC Mario Cristobal told the media after the game that Thibodeaux didn’t re-aggravate the ankle sprain. Cristobal said it was always the plan to pull Thibodeaux early.

“I don’t think it’ll completely feel normal all the time but there was no re-aggravation of an injury,” Cristobal said. “With him it’s been load management and we reached that. So that’s why we pulled him out." If Cristobal is to be believed, we should see Thibodeaux when Oregon plays Stanford this weekend.



Oklahoma (-10.5) at Kansas State

ATL: OU -11.9

Oklahoma S Delarrin Turner-Yell, the team’s leading tackler, left Saturday's 16-13 win over West Virginia early with an undisclosed injury. Turner-Yell was helped to Oklahoma's medical tent after making a tackle.

Turner-Yell previously dealt with a broken collarbone in December 2019. It’s unclear if this is a new injury, or related to that one. It’s also currently unclear what Turner-Yell’s status is for this weekend.



Michigan State (-10.5) vs. Western Kentucky

ATL: MSU -13.7

Michigan State senior DE Drew Beesley was carted off the field in last Saturday's 23-20 OT win over Nebraska with a foot injury. We should get further clarification on his injury later this week,

Beesley is one of Sparty’s most disruptive defenders. In the Spartans’ upset win over Miami two weeks ago, he made life hell on QB D'Eriq King, posting five quarterback pressures and two sacks along with a forced fumble on King.



Notre Dame (-3) vs. Cincinnati

ATL: ND -0.8

Brian Kelly said after Saturday’s blowout win over Wisconsin that Jack Coan should be ready to play next week. Sure enough, Coan was the starter on the depth chart Kelly released for the Cincinnati game on Monday.

"We got clean x-rays," Kelly told reporters. "It's a soft tissue injury. It doesn't even respond like a high ankle sprain. So, we're pretty optimistic that we'll be able to see him back next week. So, good news."

Hopefully Coan’s ankle is sound. If not, he could be a sitting duck behind a beleaguered offensive line against Cincy’s defense.



LSU (-3.5) vs. Auburn

ATL: LSU -1.9

RT Austin Deculus left last week’s win over Mississippi State but later returned. The Tigers cannot afford for him to miss time with LT Cam Wire out. The offensive line has been a problem area for LSU this fall.



Purdue (-2.5) vs. Minnesota

ATL: Purdue -5.1

Purdue TE Payne Durham is in concussion protocol following Saturday's 13-9 win over Illinois. His status for this weekend against Minnesota is very much in question. Durham ranks No. 10 in the nation among tight ends with 209 receiving yards.

The Boilermakers have serious health concerns right now. Also out: RB Zander Horvath (leg), RB King Doerue (illness), WR David Bell (concussion), WR Mershawn Rice (foot) and and DB Cory Trice (ankle).



Georgia (-18.5) vs. Arkansas

ATL: UGA -15.7

Georgia is expecting RB Kendall Milton, WR Dom Blaylock, WR Arian Smith, TE Darnell Washington, and DB Tykee Smith to return for Arkansas. None played in Saturday’s blowout win over Vandy.

Arkansas also expects to be near full-strength. QB KJ Jefferson and WR Treylon Burks both suffered injuries in last weekend's win over Texas A&M. But HC Sam Pittman said that he expects both to play this weekend against Georgia.



Michigan (-1) at Wisconsin

ATL: Wisko -0.9

Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh deemed LB Josh Ross “probable” to play against Wisconsin after Ross missed the second half of Saturday's win over Rutgers with an apparent leg injury.



Coastal Carolina (-34.5) vs. UL-Monroe

ATL: CC -29.6

Louisiana-Monroe QB Rhett Rodriguez was on a ventilator in the ICU as of Sunday evening with a lung injury he suffered in Saturday’s upset win over Troy.

Warhawks HC Terry Bowden said he wasn't aware of any more specifics than that, and wasn't sure how long Rodriguez would be sidelined.


Coaching news

Georgia Southern (-2) vs. Arkansas State

ATL: GSU -0.7

Georgia Southern fired HC Chad Lunsford following a 1-3 start. Lunsford came into the season 27-18. But GSU athletic director Jared Benko did not hire him, opening up the possibility that Lunsford's seat would get hot quickly if the Eagles started poorly.

CB coach Kevin Whitley was named interim head coach.A former All-American and Canadian Football League player, Whitley was a successful high school coach before joining GSU's staff three years ago.

Arkansas State is also 1-3, with the win coming against an FCS team. The Red Wolves were pulverized by Washington and had one-possession losses to Memphis and Tulsa.


Wrong team favored?

South Carolina (-7) vs. Troy

ATL: Troy 1.4

PointsBet installed South Carolina as touchdown-favorites. ATL disagrees, installing Troy as short favorites. This despite Troy’s head-scratching 29-14 upset loss to UL-Monroe last week.

Both teams are 2-2, and each have beaten an FCS team. South Carolina’s other win was a 20-17 road squeaker over ECU; the two losses were a blowout to Georgia and a six-point loss to South Carolina. Troy beat Southern Miss 21-9 two weeks ago and lost to Liberty 21-13 the week before that.

Will the Trojans bounce back from last week’s debacle in this road showcase against an SEC opponent?



Washington (-2) at Oregon State

ATL: Oregon State -1.4

ATL says the home Beavers should be favored, not the road Huskies. And ATL isn’t even taking into account all the injuries Washington is dealing with at the moment.

Washington junior CB Brendan Radley-Hile was knocked out of last Saturday's 31-24 win over Cal with a shoulder injury. The Oklahoma transfer has functioned as the Huskies' slot cornerback this season.

Washington has dealt with a spate of injuries this fall -- 15 players were inactive for the 31-24 OT win over Cal, including CB Trent McDuffie and TE Cade Otton,

Per HC Jimmy Lake, Otton is also expected to miss this weekend's game at Oregon State due to COVID protocol. McDuffie, who limped off the field of the win over Arkansas State the week before, faces an unclear return timeline.

If McDuffie is out again this weekend, the Huskies’ corner depth will be severely compromised against an improved Oregon State offense.


Situational spot

Texas A&M (-7) vs. Mississippi State

ATL: A&M -5.5

Last week, the Aggies saw their playoff chances take a huge hit during a loss to Arkansas as 5.5-point favorites. Next week, the Aggies host Alabama. In-between, 2-2 Mississippi State, which is on a two-game losing streak. But those losses came by a combined five points.

The Bulldogs may have beaten Memphis were it not for an officiating error that facilitate a kick-return TD. Last week, MSU had 143 more yards than LSU, 14 more first downs and possessed the ball more than 10 minutes longer, but were done in by a pair of turnovers and a few explosive LSU passing touchdowns.
 
Hooker is fine. Sounds like everyone was a go at S&C yesterday. Heupel just refuses to give any clear info about injuries to media.

So is that why vols blew the damn cover vs Gators? I didn’t watch, didn’t know he left the game but that makes sense, didn’t think I had any worries Bout covering that game then saw scoreboard! That just solidifies why I wasn’t gonna bet vols unless Hooker was qb! I’d love mizzou if Milton was starting this game! Are we sure Hooker is a go?
 
So is that why vols blew the damn cover vs Gators? I didn’t watch, didn’t know he left the game but that makes sense, didn’t think I had any worries Bout covering that game then saw scoreboard! That just solidifies why I wasn’t gonna bet vols unless Hooker was qb! I’d love mizzou if Milton was starting this game! Are we sure Hooker is a go?
Hooker and Cooper Mays were full participants at practice. That cover/non-cover had nothing to do with Hooker going out. It was pretty much already decided at that point. Your frustration should come with the wide open big play drops by the WRs over and over again. That being said, I think Vols win handily. Should run all over that run D.
 
Hooker and Cooper Mays were full participants at practice. That cover/non-cover had nothing to do with Hooker going out. It was pretty much already decided at that point. Your frustration should come with the wide open big play drops by the WRs over and over again. That being said, I think Vols win handily. Should run all over that run D.
Sorry for hijacking your thread @Timh
 
Hooker and Cooper Mays were full participants at practice. That cover/non-cover had nothing to do with Hooker going out. It was pretty much already decided at that point. Your frustration should come with the wide open big play drops by the WRs over and over again. That being said, I think Vols win handily. Should run all over that run D.

Maybe. I don’t think there much chance they win “handily”, Agree they should gash mizzou w the run game but mizzou gonna dink and dunk all over vols like they do. Vols allowing damn near 70% completions against. Plays right into tigers hands. I woulda considered over but just saw it freakin 65, think they got that bout right. Seems like a 35-30 type of game to me. Could end up in ot as I think it be back and forth. Nothing bout vols says to me they good enough to trust going on road and winning. I don’t have any interest betting it tho so hope you cash bro.
 
Tim : “ATL” is new on me, maybe because I haven’t ben paying attention. So , what is ATL ? Thanks
 
Tim : “ATL” is new on me, maybe because I haven’t ben paying attention. So , what is ATL ? Thanks
Bull the guy who wrote this article documents his lines ATL (Adjusted Thor Line) is a system I devised for determining line value. ATL considers several factors in setting a line. A few have to do with market indicators like sharp action and steam moves. For this reason, ATL lines are fluid and change throughout the week as information arrives, just like the actual lines.
 
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