CFB Week 4

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Wasn't quite what I was expecting, but week three was still decent. Went 9-5, +2.675...so thankfully, the 1st three weeks to the season have all been positive ones. Hopefully, I'll be able to keep that going. Anyhow, as always, will update this 1st post as I make plays during the week.



Fri. 9/20
Boise St (+3.5) for 1/2
Sat. 9/21
Wisconsin (-23.5) for 1
Hawaii (+10.5) for 1
Stanford (-7) for 1
Ball St(-1.5) to ULL(+2) to Syracuse(-6) for 1 to win 1
Rice (+3) @ -105 for 1/2
Georgia(-21) to Baylor(-18) to A&M(-16.5) to TT(-16) for 1 to win 1
SJST (+4.5) for 1/2
FAU (+3.5) for 1/2
Kansas St (+7) @ -115 for 1
SDST (+8) for 1/2
Duke (+4) for 1/2
USC (-6.5) @ -115 for 1
WVU (+3.5) for 1/2



Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
YTD: 25-11, +12.96

Good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
 
Last edited:
I'm late to the party this week. Missed the openings, as expected...but I've spent the last 3 days getting my numbers updated, and so forth. Lotsa work...


Anyhow, these were the 1st four plays of the week (all at -110):
Boise St (+3.5) for 1/2
Wisconsin (-23.5) for 1
Hawaii (+10.5) for 1
Stanford (-7) for 1


And as of the moment, these are most of my leans for the week:
GT (want this # to drop)
SJST (damn early starts traveling east)
FAU (line value)
Duke (line value)
Syracuse (missed the #)
Ball St (lie value)
Rice (wrong team favored)
Michigan St (should be close, low scoring game)
Louisiana (akron shot their wad)

will keep capping the games, and adding the plays... :shake:
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
I'm late to the party this week. Missed the openings, as expected...but I've spent the last 3 days getting my numbers updated, and so forth. Lotsa work...


Anyhow, these were the 1st four plays of the week (all at -110):
Boise St (+3.5) for 1/2
Wisconsin (-23.5) for 1
Hawaii (+10.5) for 1
Stanford (-7) for 1


And as of the moment, these are most of my leans for the week:
GT (want this # to drop)
SJST (damn early starts traveling east)
FAU (line value)
Duke (line value)
Syracuse (missed the #)
Ball St (lie value)
Rice (wrong team favored)
Michigan St (should be close, low scoring game)
Louisiana (akron shot their wad)

will keep capping the games, and adding the plays... :shake:
Click to expand...

Reminded me of this .. gl

http://<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/_gvej-TLJ-g" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
Anyhow, these were the 1st four plays of the week (all at -110):
Boise St (+3.5) for 1/2
Wisconsin (-23.5) for 1
Hawaii (+10.5) for 1
Stanford (-7) for 1
Click to expand...

a bit regarding these...

i've kinda been avoiding the weekday games so far this season, so only a small play on boise here. my #s put them as a 1 pt road fav...but fresno's got the superior QB, and their offensive capabilities are also what kept this from being a full play.

made wisky a 26 pt fav, so not a ton of line value. this is more situational though...wisky off that crazy ASU ending, and purdue off the tough loss to the domers. expecting purdue to be somewhat spent, and wisky to be very salty at home.

made nevada only a 4.5 pt fave here, so there's solid line value imo. also, nevada's been worn down (tenderized) by trips to UCLA and FSU...where hawaii's also been tested (USC and Oregon St), but coming off a bye. add in revenge angle.

only made stanford a 6 pt fav by my #s, but knew i'd still be going against ASU in this spot. despite the bogus win, ASU was the better team on the field vs wisky...even though they couldn't stop the run very well, dropped a ton of passes, made their typical costly mistakes, etc. and yes, even though ASU's offense is (impressively) on the rise, i expect some of that same stuff in stanford this week. historically, they struggle coming to california...and we all know that stanford will pound the ball like wisky did.
but the main thing behind my going with stanford is what stanford does in big games like this. fuck, they cruised against sjst and army...here's where they get up & shine. do NOT forget what they did to the mighty Oregon offense last season! or even how they held UCLA down in back-to-back games to end last year...before beating wisky in the rose bowl. that's what this play is about. when stanford gets up for a big opponent, they've proven they can contain/limit the very best...like they did on the road in Oregon LY.
anyhow, that's my reasoning. ASU's on the rise, and they're a very good football team...however, they're just not in Stanford's class yet. I'm loving the Pac-12...but these rising teams (ASU, UCLA, UW, etc) are still a level behind both Oregon & Stanford until they prove otherwise, which isn't gonna be this saturday.
 
tru said:
GL this week yanks

:shake:
Click to expand...

thx, mike. try as i might, i can't get comfortable with the fcs #s i've put together. always seem to find a couple games...watch to see how they go...then 1-1 seems to be the outcome each of the L2 weeks.


Silkydiamonds said:
There he is, just the guy I was looking for. Good luck
Click to expand...

thanks, silk. same to you, buddy. :shake:


dilaudid8 said:
yanks great job
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thank you, D8 :cheers:



--------------------------



separate topic...just saw that steele will have one of his 5* plays this weekend. whatcya guys think it'll be?
i've got an idea...but my longshot, only cuz it's a road team, is hawaii...especially if injuries limit (or keep off the field) some of nevada's playmakers. his PR (not mine) put the grass skirts @ 126, and the pack @ 116. even including his 4.25 for HFA, that's still a helluva difference with the current line (16 pts + change).
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
Wasn't quite what I was expecting, but week three was still decent. Went 9-5, +2.675...so thankfully, the 1st three weeks to the season have all been positive ones. Hopefully, I'll be able to keep that going. Anyhow, as always, will update this 1st post as I make plays during the week.

Fri. 9/20
Boise St (+3.5) for 1/2
Sat. 9/21
Wisconsin (-23.5) for 1
Hawaii (+10.5) for 1
Stanford (-7) for 1



Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
YTD: 25-11, +12.96

Good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
Click to expand...

Liking the plays Yanks. With you big on Boise and Stanford. Neutral on the others but BOL.
 
two additions tonight...a teaser & a half play...all from the leans I listed before/above.

Ball St(-1.5) to ULL(+2) to Syracuse(-6) for 1 to win 1
Rice (+3) @ -105 for 1/2

first, the teaser. made testicle state a 14 pt fav @ emu...made louisiana an 11 pt fav @ akron...and made cuse an 18 pt fav over tulane. all 3 were solid leans, but ended up teasing them together. bottom line, lost the line value with syracuse...and didn't want to lay that many points on the road in the other two games...so this is the result.

and second, the houston/rice game. bottom line, i had to make a small play here on principle...considering my numbers. i made rice a 4 pt fav on a neutral field...so getting them @ +3, a full TD difference, i just couldn't pass up. may be wrong, but i trust my #s and all the work i've put into them this season.
 
HUNT said:
fine work boss..keep it rollin.
Click to expand...

TY, birthday boy. :cheers:

_______________________________________________


from the leans (in post #3, i think)...

GT = dropped...no longer on my radar
SJST = added it an hour ago
FAU = added it an hour ago
Duke = still a lean
Syracuse = part of a teaser
Ball St = part of a teaser
Rice = played it the other day
Michigan St = dropped...no longer on my radar
Louisiana = part of a teaser

so Cuse/Ball/ULL were all teased the other day, when i played rice. just added sjst & fau, along with another teaser. and said goodbye to the GT & Mich St leans.

only Duke remains as a lean from that list. however, add two more/new leans...SDST & KSt. we'll see if i've got the balls to play either. (RJ's pushing KSt on FB, fwiw.)

anyhow, will post my additions in a minute...but expect one more play outta me this week, for sure.
 
three additions from this morning...the two plays i just mentioned from my leans...and a texas-style teaser with a cherry on top.

Georgia(-21) to Baylor(-18) to A&M(-16.5) to TT(-16) for 1 to win 1
SJST (+4.5) for 1/2
FAU (+3.5) for 1/2

what can i say about that TX-based teaser, other than i'm knockin' some heavy chalk i liked down to size. made UGA a 29 pt fav over N Texas...Baylor a 29.5 pt fav over ULM...A&M a 28.5 fav over SMU...and Texas Tech a 27 pt fav over TX State. just hoping one of these fuckers doesn't turn this teaser into texas toast, lol.

someone moved the SJST line up a bit this morning, and it's appreciated. if this game wasn't an early start, it would be a full play...and the ML would be tempting here as well.

and FAU is also just a half play...partly due to MTST's history over them, and partly due to the lack of offense FAU is capable of generating. still will be a tight-ass game though.

anyhow...3 potential leans left...but one more play coming before Saturday. :shake:
 
yank's yeah your right that 4 or 4.5 would have been nice but like you said SJS should win this game who is minn bol with this game
 
best of luck this week Yanks. Looks like we're only against each other tonight with Boise/Fresno
 
fuck me if the MWC isn't quickly becoming my 2nd favorite conference... :clapping:
just beginning the 4th week, and two of the most entertaining games to date have involved fresno st. gotdamned, not the best football, but definitely exciting shit.
 
dilaudid8 said:
yank's yeah your right that 4 or 4.5 would have been nice but like you said SJS should win this game who is minn bol with this game
Click to expand...

:shake:


rochclone said:
Like a lot of them. Lets get Boise tonight.
Click to expand...

thx, rochclone. good luck this weekend. :cheers:


Play2win said:
On some of the same, starting w/ Boise tonight. BOL :shake:
Click to expand...

good way to kick things off, buddy. :cheers:


E.T.G. said:
best of luck this week Yanks. Looks like we're only against each other tonight with Boise/Fresno
Click to expand...

thx, ETG. sry bout tonight, but hopefully we both crush it manana. :shake:
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
anyhow...3 potential leans left...but one more play coming before Saturday. :shake:
Click to expand...


wouldn't you know, i added all three...

Kansas St (+7) @ -115 for 1
SDST (+8) for 1/2
Duke (+4) for 1/2

see the David Ash thread by Frank. this was available, so ended up with the side versus the KSt team total (26.5). hopefully Snyder keeps the streak alive against Mack.
made Duke a 1.5 fav at home over Pitt, so decent line value here imo. big deal, pitt beat new mexico. a road win vs memphis is just as good. these teams are very close, overall, so expecting a very tight game...edge to the hm team.
lastly, sdst has looked awful to date. everyone's on the beavs, yet the line drops from 10.5 pts. why? well, sdst is getting healthy (at QB & RB, specifically)...they're off a bye, at home...and the jekyl & hyde that Oregon St traditionally is, early &/or on the road, is coming off the big Utah win (the 2nd of B2B road trips). honestly, i made the Beavs a 9 pt fav here...but this play is situational, not PR driven.


anyhow, that should complete my card for the week. 12 plays is plenty...6 of them for my normal amount, and 6 of them half plays.
subtracting the two teasers, 8 of the 10 sides are backing the dog...by far the most i've had to date. so hopefully it's one of those days tomorrow.
 
btw...if my willpower doesn't hold up, i may possibly look at adding WVU. (tru-style)

the world...including Dr Bob, RAS, & Steele...are all releasing Maryland, yet the line hangs tight. i know WVU has looked bad offensively, though they hung with oklahoma defensively. but do wins over FIU, Old Dominion, and UConn really change pre-season rankings/etc that much? maybe it's just me, but i can't even remember the last time the Terps beat WVU.

anyhow, we'll see. think my card is full, and i don't really feel like fading all the pundits who released the play. just saying...and throwing 2 cents out there for shits & giggles.
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
maybe it's just me, but i can't even remember the last time the Terps beat WVU.
Click to expand...

The last time Maryland beat WVU was the 2004 Gator Bowl on 1/1/2004. Since the start of the 2004 regular season, Maryland is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS against WVU, as an average dog of 10.4 points in those games. The last time they were the favorite was in 2005, when they were favored by -3.5 and lost SU at home.
 
Marlo said:
BOL Papi
Click to expand...

thx, marlo :shake:


austinhous said:
The last time Maryland beat WVU was the 2004 Gator Bowl on 1/1/2004. Since the start of the 2004 regular season, Maryland is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS against WVU, as an average dog of 10.4 points in those games. The last time they were the favorite was in 2005, when they were favored by -3.5 and lost SU at home.
Click to expand...

haha...was kinda just making a (stupid) point with that statement, but thx, austin. same line as right now, btw.

:cheers:
 
the morning's not off to a great start w/ my little half plays. sjst, duke, fau...hopefully some can turn it around late. especially surprised by sjst though. thought they weathered the 1st half/early start well, and would kinda "UCLA" the 2nd half.

anyhow, an addition. talked about the lean in etg's and vk's thread...then went towards the under, but RAS hit that...then woke up to find out that the side is Mr Steele's 5 star for Sept...so yes, i tailed the fucker.

USC (-6.5) @ -115 for 1

anyhow, the morning's results are making it difficult to back WVU. so tempting though. will keep at it, and see if there's anything else later.
 
over-exposed w/ these little dog plays, but fuck it. continuing the theme for the week...

WVU (+3.5) for 1/2

need to turn a sour morning around, with a (much) better afternoon.

:cheers:
 
friday nite w/ boise game... :dancing:

saturday morning...:puking:



can i go back to sleep? it's either that, or grab my 1st beer and get on w/ the day. smh
 
bumping up my thread to try to teach myself a lesson. went 7-7 today, down $7.50 (or 0.075)...and just completely disgusted with how i wasted this week of college football.

:snorting:


Yanks27Sox7 said:
Anyhow, these were the 1st four plays of the week (all at -110):
Boise St (+3.5) for 1/2
Wisconsin (-23.5) for 1
Hawaii (+10.5) for 1
Stanford (-7) for 1
Click to expand...

these were obviously my initial plays. a smart capper would've stopped right here. sure, i was dead wrong (and my personal #s were way off) regarding the Hawaii/Nevada game...but at least that would've been a respectable 3-1 weekend.


Yanks27Sox7 said:
only made stanford a 6 pt fav by my #s, but knew i'd still be going against ASU in this spot. despite the bogus win, ASU was the better team on the field vs wisky...even though they couldn't stop the run very well, dropped a ton of passes, made their typical costly mistakes, etc. and yes, even though ASU's offense is (impressively) on the rise, i expect some of that same stuff in stanford this week. historically, they struggle coming to california...and we all know that stanford will pound the ball like wisky did.
but the main thing behind my going with stanford is what stanford does in big games like this. fuck, they cruised against sjst and army...here's where they get up & shine. do NOT forget what they did to the mighty Oregon offense last season! or even how they held UCLA down in back-to-back games to end last year...before beating wisky in the rose bowl. that's what this play is about. when stanford gets up for a big opponent, they've proven they can contain/limit the very best...like they did on the road in Oregon LY.
anyhow, that's my reasoning. ASU's on the rise, and they're a very good football team...however, they're just not in Stanford's class yet. I'm loving the Pac-12...but these rising teams (ASU, UCLA, UW, etc) are still a level behind both Oregon & Stanford until they prove otherwise, which isn't gonna be this saturday.
Click to expand...

this...the stanford game...is the one & only thing i'm proud about this weekend. other than this game, it was nothing but a waste of time/energy.

(more to come...)
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
Ball St(-1.5) to ULL(+2) to Syracuse(-6) for 1 to win 1
Rice (+3) @ -105 for 1/2
Georgia(-21) to Baylor(-18) to A&M(-16.5) to TT(-16) for 1 to win 1
SJST (+4.5) for 1/2
FAU (+3.5) for 1/2
Kansas St (+7) @ -115 for 1
SDST (+8) for 1/2
Duke (+4) for 1/2
USC (-6.5) @ -115 for 1
WVU (+3.5) for 1/2
Click to expand...

the 2 teasers are what they are...but thankfully, they helped save part of the day. got involved in way too many coin flip games for half a unit though.

Rice - coin flip game, came up short.
SJST - simply laid an egg in the 2nd half.
FAU - coin flip game, came up short in OT
Kansas St - should've just left it alone, and ignored RJ, lol.
SDST - the one "good" situational play from this list.
Duke - fuckin lucky backdoor cover.
USC - shame on me for tailing Steele's 5 star. that's what i get.
WVU - the stupidest play of the day. just a dumbass public/tout fade.

but despite all the stupid plays...had i simply left it alone when i was done with things last night, at 12 plays, it would've still ended in the black.
i've only got myself to blame for those last two bullshit additions...even though USC covers with any of 100 different FBS head coaches in charge, versus Lane the Tard.
 
anyhow, like i said, just disgusted by how i wasted what could've been a good weekend of football. guess the silver lining is that i'm lucky it wasn't even worse, lol...because it very easily could've been.

updated record...

Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
YTD: 32-18, +12.885

_____________________________________

now, looking ahead to week #5...

gonna be on my phone when the lines come out, but i'll be waiting for both UW & ASU. hope the lines are set reasonably, dammit.

UW's gonna wipe the floor with Arizona, simple as that. And even though Stanford relaxed some, after 100% dominating the 1st half today...ASU showed two things that USC hasn't shown in quite some time...what good coaching can do, and what having heart can do.
 
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