CFB$$$ Week 4

cr7uz8

Pretty much a regular
Leans
Auburn +2.5
Florida-7.5
UCLA +2.5
Arizona st +7
Pitt-1
V tech +2.5
Wake Forest +4
Miss St +8
Ole MIss -6.5

Let me know any opinions on these games:cheers:
 
I'd like some GT-Miss St. discussion. I'm thinking it's a pretty tight line and I'm leaning from GT to no play. Lot of people on whole SEC ACC angle. When I look at this game I see a Miss St team that lost to La Tech and played a dragout game with an Auburn offense that for all intents and purposes we don't know how bad it really is. I'm not taking much from that game due to Aub offense and @ home, SEC game. They were pretty much outstated in that game but I must say due to turnovers mostly lost the La Tech game.

Miss States defense I am hearing better against the pass than the run. I know last year they got run over by West Virginia in a blowout.

IMO I'll take BC and VT's defense over Miss State. Now when I originally asked myself how MSU stacked up to those two, I would of taken BC and VT by a touchdown. But how much better is BC or VT's offense than Miss State's, I'm really not sure if it is. They all are pretty similar aren't they.

What I do believe to happen is Miss St. really struggling to score on that GT defense, whereas I think GT can get something going in that running game.

I think GT can put up more than the 161 rushing Auburn put up last week.

---GT has played two dragout emotional in conference games themselves which can work for them or against them and Miss St. is coming off of maybe the most emotional game they'll play all year.
 
chances are im gonna end up teasing miss st rather than taking them straight. I dont think either of these teams have an extremely impressive offense and they both have above average defenses i definately like miss st teased up but i also think they have a shot to win it outright i look for about a 20-13 g tech win
 
I'd like some GT-Miss St. discussion. I'm thinking it's a pretty tight line and I'm leaning from GT to no play. Lot of people on whole SEC ACC angle. When I look at this game I see a Miss St team that lost to La Tech and played a dragout game with an Auburn offense that for all intents and purposes we don't know how bad it really is. I'm not taking much from that game due to Aub offense and @ home, SEC game. They were pretty much outstated in that game but I must say due to turnovers mostly lost the La Tech game.

Miss States defense I am hearing better against the pass than the run. I know last year they got run over by West Virginia in a blowout.

IMO I'll take BC and VT's defense over Miss State. Now when I originally asked myself how MSU stacked up to those two, I would of taken BC and VT by a touchdown. But how much better is BC or VT's offense than Miss State's, I'm really not sure if it is. They all are pretty similar aren't they.

What I do believe to happen is Miss St. really struggling to score on that GT defense, whereas I think GT can get something going in that running game.

I think GT can put up more than the 161 rushing Auburn put up last week.

---GT has played two dragout emotional in conference games themselves which can work for them or against them and Miss St. is coming off of maybe the most emotional game they'll play all year.

just copying and pasting from another thread but i played miss st and here is how i think it plays out .....

my major concerns

1. I am not sure whether or not I consider paul johnson the best coach in college football , but i am confident that he makes my top 5
2. improvement -- i think that GT is one of those teams ( like arkansas , oregon st and hawaii ) that will see marked improvement each month as the season progresses. The more repetitions the better the offense will be,
3. Consecutive conference road games where they performed well and now return home
4. miss st off demoralizing loss 3-2 auburn.

Why i bet mississippi st

One thing that I like to do ( though sometimes forget to ) is look at a game and how i think it actually will play out ... what will the pace be ? what is the likelihood of team A blowing out team B etc etc..... It gives me a good gauge about whether one side can be eliminated for me as a play and that easy elimination often lends itself to an even harder look at the other side. GT was an easy elimination for me based on how i see the game playing out ... a hard fought pound it out game..... and one that rates to not be a blow out for either side..... in other words i have to ask myself which i believe is more likely ... miss st and gt tied in the fourth quarter or GT up 14 or more in the fourth quarter. That is an easy answer.... so i really feel in my minds eye that i am never out of this game. Here are some reasons that i have come to this conclusion...

--GT style of offense slows the game way way down. Total rush attempts and pass attempts in games played by GT are , 129 vs jacksonville st , 130 at BC , and 110 at virginia tech. limited number of possessions

--laying over a td with a team that doesn't produce first downs .. GT is averaging just 16.7 first downs per game. Granted two of those games were on the road vs two pretty good defenses in VT and BC but miss st is no slouch. 4 FD a quarter does inspire me a little bit with the bulldogs while getting over a full td.

--miss st defense matches up really well vs Gt offense. It starts with their basic rush defense , which has held louisina tech to 82 yards on 33 carries , southeast louisiana to 27 yards on 33 carries and auburn to 161 yards on a whopping 45 carries. That's 90 yards a game given up on the ground ... and just 2.4 yards per carry. Sure they will give up a larger average per rush here and more yards in this game probably than the last three combined but can do so without fear of geting burned in thepassing game. Miss state can completely sell out to stop the run. Pegues can take out the number one pass option for georgia tech and they can commit to the run without fear of play action. GT has only attempted 12 passes per game on average over the first three games.

--Running back dwyer left the game last week with a back bruise. He is the workhorse for the offense. Status uncertain right now , but unlikely he would be 100 percent.

--yellow jackets kicker is now 2-6 on fg and missed an extra point vs VT last week. Hard to have confidence in that kid right now and hard for him to have confidence in himself. points will be at a premium here , so that is huge. the miss st kid is just 2-4 or so i believe.

-- i like the return game for miss st compared to that of GT. The hidden yards will be big in this game as well.


So I see GT getting about 19 first downs at home in this game .... scoring somewhere around 17-23 points .... i wont need much from miss st offense. i dont expect much .. but i wont need much.
 
flip flopped on this one many times so it will prob lose
Colorado +3 1.5 units
andddd
Over 57.5 1.5 units
gl tonight fellas
 
I really like 7 of your 9 leans bro. With you on Wake and Florida already.

Only two I disagree with are Auburn and Ole Miss. Going the other way with Vandy, who can control the clock with their run game, and has a better overall defense than the Rebels. As for Auburn, I'm betting against that offense (which is in transition). Trouble scoring points is going to be the Tigers downfall in this one.

GL this week!

:cheers:
 
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