Season: 11-5 +13.85 units
Miami -2.5 Pk (1 unit):money2:
-- I gave my explanation for this play in spanishshark's thread; essentially it was skewed stats on behalf of the defenses. I reviewed the stats late today and convinced one of my coworkers to bet on it with me. Needless to say, he just left my apt a few bills lighter.
Oklahoma -22.5 -105 (2 units):money2:
-- Tulsa is an up-tempo, physical team that made the most of their opportunities via turnovers last week vs BYU. The problem is that Tulsa cannot be physical and one-dimensional against a superior team (aka OU). Tulsa ranks in the bottom 10 vs the pass and the bottom 30 vs the run; OU has a top 15 defense through three weeks. I will be the first to admit that OU has not been tested like LSU, USC, or Florida, but then again Tulsa is not the team to test them. OU has too much talent, and the homefield advantage disappears quickly here. My one question in this game goes to the Oklahoma residents: how much of a homefield advantage does Tulsa have in this one? Regardless, Stoops is smart enough to recognize his only shot at cracking the top two is to decimate every opponent from here on out -- this is the beginning. I see OU scoring in the mid-50s and Tulsa with two or three TD's.
Florida -21 -105 (2 units):hang:
-- Ole Piss is the worst team in the SEC; UF is the 2nd best team in the SEC. Ole Piss has two shitty options at QB with no receiving targets, leaving BJGE as the only offensive weapon. Tebow & Co have been throwing up points like mad men, and Ole Piss surely isn't the defense to stop them. Everyone loves a home dog facing an opponent on the road for the first time this season, who have lost their prior two meetings; but these reasons are what gives us a discount on this line. I pegged the line at UF -28 and my close friend, who is extremely knowledgeable regarding SEC football, pegged it at UF -31, so UF -21 is a bargain. See RambleOn's thread/blog for the best analysis.
Oregon -17 -105 (2 units):money2:
Here's the thing, I'm about to finish this 12-pack of Miller Lite, and I need to pack for Baton Rouge this weekend, so I am just going to post my initial thoughts and RSMS analysis which I copied from his thread.
-- My thoughts: Stanford's offense is based off of the passing game. To add to it being a one-dimensional offense, their RB is out for the season I believe. The strength of Oregon's defense lies in its pass defense, which suits this game well. Stanford loses two of its three LB's and faces Oregon's offense; therefore, Oregon scores 40+ and I can't see Stanford getting 23+, hence a cover. Overall, Oregon is a very underrated team and I like them against an inferior opponent laying only 17 pts.
-- RSMS:
I think wholeheartedly that Oregon is the right side in this game. The offense has looked downright amazing so far and its hard to imagine Stanford keeping the Ducks under 40. I am considering playing it but I really really don't lke to bet on the Ducks or Duck games at all, just cause it screws it up for me. The Michigan game was na exception because I thought the line was just that ridiculous I couldn't leave money on the table.
For the game it looks like another Oregon blowout on paper. Stanford hasn't been close to the Ducks for a while now and this year shouldn't be any different. The only drawback I see is that the Cal game next week is seriously looming right now. It is all but certain that the Gameday crew will be n Eugene and the Cal game has become a pretty big rivalry these days with Tedford/Bellotti, and a lot of close games and recruiting battles. After last years humiliation on National TV, this game will be huge. I almost never consider these "sitiuational" angles at all but its hard to see them focusing on Cal. That said, the ducks should roll and I may eventually play it.
I also lean heavy toward Fla Atl and may still play them depending on the Oklahoma outcome. Also, I like UGA +4, Toledo +4, Penn St -3 off the top of my head, but I will not play any of these.
:cheers:
Miami -2.5 Pk (1 unit):money2:
-- I gave my explanation for this play in spanishshark's thread; essentially it was skewed stats on behalf of the defenses. I reviewed the stats late today and convinced one of my coworkers to bet on it with me. Needless to say, he just left my apt a few bills lighter.
Oklahoma -22.5 -105 (2 units):money2:
-- Tulsa is an up-tempo, physical team that made the most of their opportunities via turnovers last week vs BYU. The problem is that Tulsa cannot be physical and one-dimensional against a superior team (aka OU). Tulsa ranks in the bottom 10 vs the pass and the bottom 30 vs the run; OU has a top 15 defense through three weeks. I will be the first to admit that OU has not been tested like LSU, USC, or Florida, but then again Tulsa is not the team to test them. OU has too much talent, and the homefield advantage disappears quickly here. My one question in this game goes to the Oklahoma residents: how much of a homefield advantage does Tulsa have in this one? Regardless, Stoops is smart enough to recognize his only shot at cracking the top two is to decimate every opponent from here on out -- this is the beginning. I see OU scoring in the mid-50s and Tulsa with two or three TD's.
Florida -21 -105 (2 units):hang:
-- Ole Piss is the worst team in the SEC; UF is the 2nd best team in the SEC. Ole Piss has two shitty options at QB with no receiving targets, leaving BJGE as the only offensive weapon. Tebow & Co have been throwing up points like mad men, and Ole Piss surely isn't the defense to stop them. Everyone loves a home dog facing an opponent on the road for the first time this season, who have lost their prior two meetings; but these reasons are what gives us a discount on this line. I pegged the line at UF -28 and my close friend, who is extremely knowledgeable regarding SEC football, pegged it at UF -31, so UF -21 is a bargain. See RambleOn's thread/blog for the best analysis.
Oregon -17 -105 (2 units):money2:
Here's the thing, I'm about to finish this 12-pack of Miller Lite, and I need to pack for Baton Rouge this weekend, so I am just going to post my initial thoughts and RSMS analysis which I copied from his thread.
-- My thoughts: Stanford's offense is based off of the passing game. To add to it being a one-dimensional offense, their RB is out for the season I believe. The strength of Oregon's defense lies in its pass defense, which suits this game well. Stanford loses two of its three LB's and faces Oregon's offense; therefore, Oregon scores 40+ and I can't see Stanford getting 23+, hence a cover. Overall, Oregon is a very underrated team and I like them against an inferior opponent laying only 17 pts.
-- RSMS:
I think wholeheartedly that Oregon is the right side in this game. The offense has looked downright amazing so far and its hard to imagine Stanford keeping the Ducks under 40. I am considering playing it but I really really don't lke to bet on the Ducks or Duck games at all, just cause it screws it up for me. The Michigan game was na exception because I thought the line was just that ridiculous I couldn't leave money on the table.
For the game it looks like another Oregon blowout on paper. Stanford hasn't been close to the Ducks for a while now and this year shouldn't be any different. The only drawback I see is that the Cal game next week is seriously looming right now. It is all but certain that the Gameday crew will be n Eugene and the Cal game has become a pretty big rivalry these days with Tedford/Bellotti, and a lot of close games and recruiting battles. After last years humiliation on National TV, this game will be huge. I almost never consider these "sitiuational" angles at all but its hard to see them focusing on Cal. That said, the ducks should roll and I may eventually play it.
I also lean heavy toward Fla Atl and may still play them depending on the Oklahoma outcome. Also, I like UGA +4, Toledo +4, Penn St -3 off the top of my head, but I will not play any of these.
:cheers:
Last edited:
