CFB Week 4

Timh

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
YTD Record
Sides 7-8, -1.72u
Totals 3-3, -0.27u
Parlays 0-1, -1.0u
ML 1-0, +1.07u
Live Sides 1-1, -0.03u
Total 12-13, -1.95u

Futures
Utah to Win Big 12 +770 .5*
Alabama to Win NC +952 .5*

Week 4
312 TCU -6.5 -117 1*
317 North Carolina +7 -112 1*
324/329 Tease Miami -2, Illinois +13 +100 1*
329 Illinois +6.5 -108 1*
329/330 Illinois/Indiana Live Over 69 -112 1*
350 Utah -3 -108 1*
358 Kansas -12.5 -107 1*
359/360 ASU/Baylor over 60 -109 1*
365/366 Arkansas/Memphis over 60.5 -108 1*
377/378 Fresno St./Hawaii under 47.5 -103 1*
 
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Have a week Doc! Good situation for the Turtles I believe this weekend to possibly pull off the upset.
 
KJ said:
Have a week Doc! Good situation for the Turtles I believe this weekend to possibly pull off the upset.
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KJ I hope you are right. I am not high on this MD team this year, just feel like their line play is going to get exposed in the BIG games. They haven't shown me they can run the football very well against FAU, N. Ill or Towson and certainly the schedule gets much tougher now with Conference play. I am though encouraged by what I have seen from our young QB M. Washington. Pep Hamilton is coaching him up really well, and he is very athletic with a good arm and we do have decent WRs. The back 7 on defense have played pretty well so far which is also encouraging. At the beginning of the year I felt like our best chances to win conference games would be vs UCLA and MST both on the road. I feel like 5-7 is about what I would expect.
 
Timh said:
KJ I hope you are right. I am not high on this MD team this year, just feel like their line play is going to get exposed in the BIG games. They haven't shown me they can run the football very well against FAU, N. Ill or Towson and certainly the schedule gets much tougher now with Conference play. I am though encouraged by what I have seen from our young QB M. Washington. Pep Hamilton is coaching him up really well, and he is very athletic with a good arm and we do have decent WRs. The back 7 on defense have played pretty well so far which is also encouraging. At the beginning of the year I felt like our best chances to win conference games would be vs UCLA and MST both on the road. I feel like 5-7 is about what I would expect.
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There's a ton to digest with that team. I do love the QB and he will keep them in a couple games they maybe shouldn't be in. Down on Wisky anyway, the Fickell thing has run its course and getting them off of the Bama game is a big plus imo

And I'm not sure if UCLA should be considered a conference game at this point. Think they, FAU, NIU and Towson would be a competitive 4 team tournament!
 
When does Circa open? We don't have them in AZ so I don't track but crazy to see USC -13 which makes me think that opened mid day Saturday considering where it's at now but then I see Indy and I know they opened -2.5 most places...so that line suggests it's well after the movement.
 
KJ said:
When does Circa open? We don't have them in AZ so I don't track but crazy to see USC -13 which makes me think that opened mid day Saturday considering where it's at now but then I see Indy and I know they opened -2.5 most places...so that line suggests it's well after the movement.
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Circa will vary a bit from the others.

USC was 14 and 14.5 at BOL and Drag Queens around 1am Saturday night fwiw
 
Well yeah I got USC at 14 on Sat night. I'm just wondering when 13 was put out there considering it isn't close to that now. Was that Sat night as well or just a random open later and disregarding the movement at other books?
 
KJ said:
When does Circa open? We don't have them in AZ so I don't track but crazy to see USC -13 which makes me think that opened mid day Saturday considering where it's at now but then I see Indy and I know they opened -2.5 most places...so that line suggests it's well after the movement.
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Sunday 224 pm they posted these lines on X.
 
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Hope you're right about the Illini Timmy. Xavier Scott being out is big, but at least they have some depth in the secondary. Thought about UNC, and would have been on them if Fancher was still the starter.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Hope you're right about the Illini Timmy. Xavier Scott being out is big, but at least they have some depth in the secondary. Thought about UNC, and would have been on them if Fancher was still the starter.
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I know I am going against the move there Brass, but I feel like Illini have the better offense. Have heard about Cignetti revenge factor too. I am odd man out on that game but fuck it. I thought the line should be 3 or less.
 
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Timh said:
I know I am going against the move there Brass, but I feel like Illini have the better offense. Have heard about Cignetti revenge factor too. I am odd man out on that game but fuck it. I thought the line should be 3 or less.
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I will be joining. Will pay to see Indy beat a credible team.
 
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From PFF

LECTURE HALL​
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The No. 9 Fighting Illini travel to Indiana for a top-20 Big Ten matchup​
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The Big Ten sent four teams to the College Football Playoff last season: Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon and Indiana. Those first three schools currently have the best odds in the country to make the playoff once again, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

If the conference is going to send a fourth school once again to the playoff, the winner of this game will probably be the favorite. Illinois and Indiana are the next-highest-ranked teams in the Big Ten after Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon.

Matchup to watch: When Illinois has the ball, who wins the battle between the tackles?

Luke Altmyer and the Illinois passing game garner plenty of spotlight, but the Fighting Illini have been productive on the ground so far this season, particularly between the tackles.

Through Week 3, Illinois leads the nation with a 92.2 PFF rushing grade between the tackles. The Illini also lead the FBS in successful play rate on such runs and rank second in explosive run rate as well. Kaden Feagin, the team’s 255-pound running back, has led the charge with an outstanding 86.3 rushing grade between the tackles while averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

Conversely, Indiana has stopped inside runs at an elite rate since head coach Curt Cignetti took over last season. Since the start of 2024, Indiana ranks among the top five defenses in PFF run-defense grade, yards per carry allowed and explosive run rate allowed when opponents run between the tackles.

Predictions

Max: Illinois 27, Indiana 24
Mendoza finds issues against Illinois’ aggressive defense, and the Fighting Illini pull out a close victory in a game that could prove pivotal for their playoff candidacy.

Dalton: Illinois 20, Indiana 17
Illinois should feel comfortable with its usual defensive gameplan. The Hoosiers are facing their first real test of the season. This could be a defensive slugfest, but the Illini force Mendoza into enough mistakes to score a victory.

Watch or read the full Week 4 breakdown, featuring nine of the best matchups this weekend.​
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Br@ssknux said:
Hope you're right about the Illini Timmy. Xavier Scott being out is big, but at least they have some depth in the secondary. Thought about UNC, and would have been on them if Fancher was still the starter.
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You were deadeye dick on UNC QB situation. Lopez was awful! Just a horrible bet I made there along with Utah and the Illini (wtf was that performance)
 
Timh said:
You were deadeye dick on UNC QB situation. Lopez was awful! Just a horrible bet I made there along with Utah and the Illini (wtf was that performance)
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Indiana is awesome, #1. Illini were certainly overrated as it related to their ranking but they were thoroughly dominated. Bielema and his staff are above average in my opinion and he runs a very competent program but they were abused by Cignetti and Co, and Bielema readily admitted that. Their OL is not, has never been and probably will never be “good”. They’re fine, at best and sometimes they look good depending on the matchup and if the staff schemes things up. That was the main issue. Also, one of Illinois strengths is their secondary but they were completely ravaged by the beginning of the second half. They were down their 2 top corners to start but then #s 3 and 4 went down in the game, one safety got ejected and the other got a concussion and their top backup safety got
hurt also(Resetich). That’s why you saw the numbers you did for Mendoza. But he’s a stud anyway!! Just a disaster for the Illini
 
Br@ssknux said:
Indiana is awesome, #1. Illini were certainly overrated as it related to their ranking but they were thoroughly dominated. Bielema and his staff are above average in my opinion and he runs a very competent program but they were abused by Cignetti and Co, and Bielema readily admitted that. Their OL is not, has never been and probably will never be “good”. They’re fine, at best and sometimes they look good depending on the matchup and if the staff schemes things up. That was the main issue. Also, one of Illinois strengths is their secondary but they were completely ravaged by the beginning of the second half. They were down their 2 top corners to start but then #s 3 and 4 went down in the game, one safety got ejected and the other got a concussion and their top backup safety got
hurt also(Resetich). That’s why you saw the numbers you did for Mendoza. But he’s a stud anyway!! Just a disaster for the Illini
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Brass thanks for the scoop there on your Illini. Mad at myself there, as I was just stubborn to a fault and had no idea that Mendoza was that good. I hate being so wrong about a couple of the bets I made, makes me feel incompetent to an extent.
 
Timh said:
Brass thanks for the scoop there on your Illini. Mad at myself there, as I was just stubborn to a fault and had no idea that Mendoza was that good. I hate being so wrong about a couple of the bets I made, makes me feel incompetent to an extent.
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Don’t be so hard on yourself. All but one on Gameday picked Illinois outright. I was extolling the virtues of a Tulane bet this week. It happens all the time.
 
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