CFB Week 4 Thoughts

[jimmymo]

3-4 in week 3.....12-12 overall...jimmy the coinflipper

Some thoughts here....going to really try and stick to my thoughts and plays this week.....will eventually post card once bets are in


UCLA plus......waiting for 3 1/2 and maybe even 4 with UCLA...home team, better QB, similar Defenses (maybe even edge to UCLA) -- this is all about perception with McCaffrey.....remember, KSU out-stated Stanford on its home field.....USC win good for tree, but not great....USC quickly becoming a dumpster fire...this is the kind of game where 90% of public is on the Tree and the line drops from 3.5 to PK on Saturday morning....

Colorado plus.....really want 10 or more, but it is not yet available to me.....need more outs.....Buffs in a bit of a tough spot coming off the trip to big house and then back on road to Eugene....but I believe this team has guts and Oregon has some serious injury issues and coming off a heartbreaker.....gimme points and sefo (check on status)

Utah/USC.....jesus fukkin christ, what can you say....USC imploding, but sometimes a team with a QB change and backs to wall players can respond....or not.....it would have to be Utah or nothing I think, which probably means that SC somehow finds a way to win....not sold on Troy Williams either, but do pull for him a little bit as an ex-UW guy

UW minus.....refreshing the current lines at LVASports about every 3 minutes waiting for this to get posted....apparently it is on the board in Vegas at 9 1/2......steep price on the road and revenge angle and UW's recent history in AZ point toward a close game....NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.....UW will beat this sorry ass AZ team down.....sharps may be backing the Cats in this game because it is a big number to lay on the road in conferecne -- they will be wrong.......UW easy DD win and then on to Stanford

Oregon State plus.....if 14 pops for me, I will bite...not 100 percent sold on Boise and think Oregon State ascending....too many points here in what I think may be just as big of game for OSU than it is for Boise....

UTSA plus......embarrassed to even list this, but ODU's defense has issues and UTSA showed some game last week....likely taking 4 points here with the better defense

LSU minus.....ONLY if I can get 3...not betting another hook in the SEC....

Cal/ASU.....who the fukk knows......

 

[Timh]

BOL this week Jimmy.

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

GL Jimmy

 

[Two Utes]

CU for sure if Sefo playing, I'd stay away from game entirely if he isn't.

 

[jimmymo]

Thx gents...GL to you as well....

I haven't found anything clear on Sefo yet, but the Buffs beat writers saying that Montez getting all reps......but also that Sefo was in full pads ...gonna keep an eye on it.


UW -11 over arizona.......keeping record on flat betting, but I am taking a good position here...don't love the number and was really, really hoping for 9 1/2...so, at this point, i have made a play at 11 and will be adding at some point...is a good play now and going to be big


Trying to stick to my guns and stay patient on numbers.....can get both UCLA +3 1/2 and LSU -3 with high juice, but gonna wait it out....

 

[RetroVK]

gl jimmy

 

[sleepy]

I have not been that impressed with the Garretson kid. He is at the bottom of the league in passer rating. Colorado hung 49 in the first half on Idaho St. and I thought the Beaver offense kind of struggled against them. They played like crap at home last season only covering one game and this season they didn't come close to covering against a bad FCS team.

 

[RetroVK]

your cal/asu analysis is in line with mine, mo. hehe.

 

[CrimsonK]

Total opened 58 on Wash/Zona. I have that as an under. Thoughts?

 

[jimmymo]

Total opened 58 on Wash/Zona. I have that as an under. Thoughts?

FWIW, here are my thoughts......

1. First and foremost, I SUCK at totals. so.........

2. I have a big investment in the UW side and I am 100% emotionally ready to accept the fact that Peterson will be VERY conservative on offense to start this game -- part of me really believes that Pete "believes" that we can win this game scoring 17 or less points on Offense so long as we do not turn the ball over and/or give AZ any offensive possessions starting in our own territory. That would, of course, support the under......but Pete is a guy that can zig when everybody expects a zag......he "could" go out there and let it fly on offense (I really don't think so, but he may just do it.....the UW has scored 40+ in six straight games now....the offense "really, really" wants to keep that streak goinog

3. I believe the UW D will really show up in this game -- we are fast everywhere. However, I think Dawkins really presents more problems to the UW that Anu -- worried about his ability to make plays with his legs -- he could really, really be a wildcard in this game and if he gets going and the crowd gets going and the UW D gets on heels, they could score some points -- anything 24 plus will probably kill that total -- they could get there if RR has them playing fast.......

4. The UW special teams have been a BEAST this year -- Ross is so dynamic and Pettis is legit as well -- the UW could get a TD or two (or set another up) from punt/ko returns alone.....bad for over

5. Ultimately, to me, this total comes down to pace and I think both coaches are going to keep it kind of conservative early -- this will lead to burning clock and a "relatively" low scoring game -- my prediction is UW 37 AZ 16

GL this week CK

your cal/asu analysis is in line with mine, mo. hehe.

Funny....I have always been a little bit of Todd Graham fan, but not sure WTF is going on down there this year......gun to head, I think ASU -4 is the side (but ugggh)..GL this week VK

I have not been that impressed with the Garretson kid. He is at the bottom of the league in passer rating. Colorado hung 49 in the first half on Idaho St. and I thought the Beaver offense kind of struggled against them. They played like crap at home last season only covering one game and this season they didn't come close to covering against a bad FCS team.

Good thoughts sleepy.....you may be right that Garretson not ready for this game yet...this is more of an angle against Boise State laying such a big number....Beavs showed life at Minny and although they didn't destroy potato state, they took care of business (up 26 at half I believe).....this is a big one for OSU and I like Gary Anderson.....prolly lay off, but will be fun to watch in any event. GL this week

 

[Two Utes]

I'm the opposite, I've always hated Graham. I've seen a bit of ASU this year and I just don't think that they are that good. I haven't looked at any numbers since I'm on the bench now but I'd look at the over in Cal/ASU. I know it will be high but neither team is very good defensively and they both can score points.

 

[jimmymo]

I'm the opposite, I've always hated Graham.

Made me think about ranking P12 coaches...this, of course, has a ton of my bias


Peterson
Shaw
McIntyre
Wittingham

Graham

Dykes/Mora/Anderson (but could be rising)
Helfrich
RichRod
Leach
Helton

 

[Two Utes]

Hard to argue with any in that top 4, in a profession where there are some slimeballs they are as good of a group as you will find.

 

[CrimsonK]

I dont know anything about McIntyre really so seeing him up that high on your lists is surprising. I really like the other 3 at the top. Helfrich I would prob rate even lower and Leach higher

 

[jimmymo]

USC +3 @ Utah...going to bite one more time with this team.....backs against the wall..they either rise to occasion tonight or implode....gonna be fun either way

 

[Play2win]

GL this weekend Jimmy

 

[ArizonaKid]

You have Mora way too low on your coaching rankings...he has to be top 4 imo.

Secondly I hope you unloaded on UW at -11...great work. at -12.5 I put UW in a 6 point teaser with the Cowboys. Up to -14 now at most places. Arizona will be w/out 2 starters on defense in NG Parker Zellers and LB DeAndre Miller though S Tellas Jones is expected back. Arizona has a pretty undersized D line and one of the starters is a rFR Justin Belknap who is a walk on and had zero offers out of high school. My biggest disappointment of Rich-Rod at Arizona has been his inability to bring in talent...Stoops was much better.

Arizona has been a tough home dog through the years, 13-3-1 since 2005 but I still like UW. As for the total, I expect UW to keep their string of 40+ going leaving Arizona only needing to get about 17 for the over 58 which I really like. Under Rich-Rod Arizona has been a home dog 5 times and the over is 4-1 though the Utah game last season needed OT to get there.

Arizona is the worst team in the Pac 12 South.

 

[jimmymo]

Trojans...ughh....

Oregon State +14 v. Boise

Army -13 1/2 @ buffalo

Colorado +10 1/2 @ Oregon


Gonna hang tight on UCLA as I think it rebounds back to 3 at some point.....kicking myself as I had +3 1/2 -115 last night and passed trying to be patient


AZKid, you may be right about Mora...again, lots of bias here...funny how your personal cover/non-cover history with a coach can shape your thoughts.....

GL degens

 

[jimmymo]

LSU -3 (-115) @ auburn

 

[KJ]

bang it hard jimmy, gonna be on your team tonight, just don't know quite how yet