CFB Week 4 Pick'em Pool Betting Trends

[Colin Wynner]

Here are the pool numbers for CFB week #4 - one massive public dog this week, three guesses . . .

Last week in CFB the pool went a below average 45%, but so far this week sitting at 73% with a massing lop-sided win last night, Air Force 153-10 in picks.

Lop-sided games, top 20 most picked games (2-5 last week, 5-7 on the year, ~40% historically), 2-0 to start the week:

Game/Spread	Fav_Picks​	Dog_Picks	FAV_Pct​	DOG_Pct​	Total Picks​	CFB Rank​
Florida State -2.5 over Clemson	318	45	87.6%​	12.4%​	363	1
Oregon -21 over Colorado	57	232	19.7%​	80.3%​	289	2
Air Force -5.5 over San Jose State	153	10	93.9%​	6.1%​	163	5
Oklahoma -14.5 over Cincinnati	109	37	74.7%​	25.3%​	146	7
Washington -20.5 over California	117	7	94.4%​	5.6%​	124	8
TCU -6.5 over SMU	100	11	90.1%​	9.9%​	111	9
Texas -15 over Baylor	92	18	83.6%​	16.4%​	110	12
North Carolina -7.5 over Pittsburgh	82	16	83.7%​	16.3%​	98	14
Wisconsin -6 over Purdue	68	18	79.1%​	20.9%​	86	17
Duke -21.5 over UCONN	58	11	84.1%​	15.9%​	69	20

The rest of the lop-sided picked games (14-16 last week, 27-32 overall, ~47% historically):

Game/Spread​	Fav_Picks​	Dog_Picks​	FAV_Pct​	DOG_Pct​	Total Picks​	CFB Rank​
Kansas State -4 over UCF	55	14	79.7%​	20.3%​	69	21
Wyoming -3 over App State	51	12	81.0%​	19.0%​	63	25
Wake Forest -4 over Georgia Tech	51	10	83.6%​	16.4%​	61	26
Tennessee -21 over UT San Antonio	53	4	93.0%​	7.0%​	57	28
Rice -2.5 over South Florida	40	8	83.3%​	16.7%​	48	30
Kentucky -13.5 over Vanderbilt	33	12	73.3%​	26.7%​	45	33
South Carolina -6.5 over Mississippi St	40	5	88.9%​	11.1%​	45	34
Louisiana -9.5 over Buffalo	38	4	90.5%​	9.5%​	42	35
Marshal l-5 over Virginia Tech	32	5	86.5%​	13.5%​	37	37
Florida -28 over Charlotte	29	7	80.6%​	19.4%​	36	38
South Alabama -15 over Central Michigan	23	2	92.0%​	8.0%​	25	49
Texas State -17 over Nevada	18	4	81.8%​	18.2%​	22	51
Indiana -16.5 over Akron	19	3	86.4%​	13.6%​	22	53
Louisiana -14 over Boston College	14	6	70.0%​	30.0%​	20	54
UMASS -3.5 over New Mexico	14	4	77.8%​	22.2%​	18	56
Jacksonville St-6.5 over Eastern Michigan	10	4	71.4%​	28.6%​	14	60

Public Dogs (>50% of the picks, 5-2 last week, 8-6 on the year), 2-0 to start the week:

Game/Spread​	Fav_Picks​	Dog_Picks​	FAV_Pct​	DOG_Pct​	Total Picks​	CFB Rank​
Oregon -21 over Colorado	57	232	19.7%​	80.3%​	289	2
Ohio State -3 over Notre Dame	102	117	46.6%​	53.4%​	219	3
Michigan -24.5 over Rutgers	71	77	48.0%​	52.0%​	148	6
Alabama -7 over Ole Miss	61	85	41.8%​	58.2%​	146	10
Oregon State -2.5 over Washington State	64	82	43.8%​	56.2%​	146	11
Kansas -8.5 over BYU	40	60	40.0%​	60.0%​	100	13
Penn State -14.5 over Iowa	45	51	46.9%​	53.1%​	96	15
Middle Tennessee -3 over Colorado State	36	59	37.9%​	62.1%​	95	16
Coastal Carolina -6.5 over Georgia State	21	39	35.0%​	65.0%​	60	27
Boise State -7 over San Diego State	20	25	44.4%​	55.6%​	45	32
Iowa State -3.5 over Oklahoma State	12	21	36.4%​	63.6%​	33	40
Georgia -42 over UAB	13	19	40.6%​	59.4%​	32	41
James Madison -6.5 over Utah State	12	19	38.7%​	61.3%​	31	42
Nebraska -20.5 over Louisiana Tech	9	14	39.1%​	60.9%​	23	50
Troy -3.5 over Western Kentucky	7	11	38.9%​	61.1%​	18	55
Georgia Southern -6.5 over Ball State	7	9	43.8%​	56.3%​	16	58
Toledo -21 over Western Michigan	5	8	38.5%​	61.5%​	13	62

My Picks:

Cincinnati +14.5
Rice -2.5
UCLA +5.5
UTEP +2.5

Colts +8
Raiders -2.5

Good luck all!

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck bud and thanks for sharing.

I'm quite surprised at that disparity with the Clemson -FSU game.

 

[Colin Wynner]

Lop-sided games went 8-2 and the Oklahoma game closed 13.0-14.0; would have been a rough week to bet against the public. Overall the pool went 54.7% but in this pool pushes are counted as losses, if we take out the three pushes, the pool went 58.7%.

Theme for next week - what goes up must come down!