CFB Week 3

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
After a decent opening week, had a pretty good second week as well. Went 5-1, +4.450...and thankfully, the only loss came on a half play (was wary of Cincy). Anyhow, as always, will update this 1st post as I make plays during the week.



Sat. 9/14
Louisville (-10) for 1
UCLA (+4) for 1
UCLA (+6) for 1/2
Oregon (-23) for 1
Washington (-9.5) for 1
WKU (-9.5) for 1
Rice (-3.5) for 1
Arizona St (-5.5) for 1
Oregon St/Utah under 58 for 1/2
Ohio St/Cal over 65.5 for 1/2
Alabama/A&M over 60.5 for 1/2
Stanford(-17) to WVU(-28) to Michigan(-25) to FSU(-22.5) for 1 to win 1
Arkansas 1H (-13.5) @ -115 for 1/2
Arizona 1H (-13.5) @ -115 for 1/2



Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
YTD: 16-6, +10.285

Good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
 
Last edited:
lines came out earlier than expected this week. thankfully, i had updated my #s late last night. anyhow, jumped on 5 of them right outta the gate. (well, as soon as i realized the lines were available. missed a better number or two already, dammit.)

UCLA (+4) for 1
Oregon (-23) for 1
Washington (-9.5) for 1
Rice (-3.5) for 1
Arizona St (-5.5) for 1

Pac-12 heavy to begin...couple on the road, and a couple at home. Was about 10 minutes late from being able to take Oregon -20, and I'm still steamed about that.

Hate the fact UCLA is a 9am start, pacific time. But they've had a week to rest, a cupcake on deck, then another week off. Made them a 1 pt fav on the road, so happy to take the points in this spot.

Made Oregon a 27 pt fav, so really would've rather got this at 20 pts...but it is what it is...and that's already up to 24.5 pts, lol. Tenny could stick with them early again, but they'll be blown away in the end.

Illinois looked good vs Cincy, but the party won't last long. Made UW a 17 pt fav, giving Illy full HF advantage in Chicago. Not an early start, thankfully. Won't quite be as easy as Boise though. Over in play here too.

What can I say...other than Kansas sucks, and Rice impressed vs A&M at times, before wearing down. Showed some fight, and they can score. Made Rice a 13 pt fav, so there was enough value to take it early.

Lastly, ASU...who I made exactly a 5.5 fav in this game. Took it now, cuz I didn't want to see a 6 later. This play is more situational....tough west coast roadie for Wisky...and imo, ASU is simply better. Only worry is Stanford is on deck.

Anyhow, sorry it took me so long to type. I'm still going back n forth with early lines, and may add another here shortly. Busy, busy...
 
tru said:
on rice. good luck this weekend yanks

:shake:
Click to expand...

thx, tru. good luck to you as well, buddy. :shake:


quick question. what do you think of GT this week? i was gonna play it, but found it odd to see the line moving in my favor (opposite of what i'd expect)...so i've hung tight so far.
 
made gt -10, no value for me really. I am wit u, kinda shocked it opened at -9 an now down to -7.5.
 
maybe im off on ucla or Nebraska but I don't see value on ucla at +4. gimme some thoughts. if I see a 2.5 or -3 I will be on nebraska
 
tru said:
maybe im off on ucla or Nebraska but I don't see value on ucla at +4. gimme some thoughts. if I see a 2.5 or -3 I will be on nebraska
Click to expand...

there's the potential for it to be a tricky road game, for sure...but not due to the UCLA schedule. will get to this more, but still busy with lines/etc. bottom line...the 9am start is my only worry here.
wyoming put up 600+ yds on the cornhuskers. that's not a good defense, despite the So Piss game. whatchya think the Bruins & Hundley are gonna do to them? answer...if they're awake, lol...like a warm knife thru butter, imho.

but like the UW/Illy game, the over is in play here too...if set reasonably.
 
jimmymo said:
Love the card yanks.....just love it...GL this weekend
Click to expand...

thx, jimmy. appreciate it, bud. :shake:


tru said:
BOL has that udub/illy total set at 60 rite now
Click to expand...

between the kids, lines, the NFL, etc...feel like i'm running around. need to check things out more, but @ first glance that looks good. (was guessing 57/58.) will need scheelhaase to keep chuckin' it though...so illy does their part.
 
the bye week maintained value for us. people still have no idea how good we are

542242_633039770050290_1166903182_n.jpg
 
sportjunky said:
the bye week maintained value for us. people still have no idea how good we are

542242_633039770050290_1166903182_n.jpg
Click to expand...

agreed! also, wyoming was a week ago for nebraska...just like nevada was a week ago for the bruins. results forgotten. but speaking of wyoming & nevada...it may not be fair to compare the separate results from week one...but it is fair to say that wyoming and nevada aren't all that different, at least in terms of power rankings.

(2.5 pts by my #s, to be exact...in wyoming's favor)
 
addition...

Louisville (-10) for 1

was waffling earlier, due to the rivalry...but saw it get to 11 elsewhere, so grabbed it now @ 10. there is value, imo, as i made Louisville an 18 pt fav in this spot.
there is a hole or two that Kentucky can exploit in this matchup, if able, but hopefully that won't be the case...cuz on paper, it should be a butt kicking.
 
Ok, time to slow down. 6 plays are good for now. Need to spend more time on totals/etc.

But here are some other initial leans...

Texas Tech +3
WKU -9.5
Fresno St -9.5
GT -8
Messy St +7
Oregon St +1.5
ULM +3
Bama/A&M over 63
 
lied...two additions, yet just 1 additional side.

WKU (-9.5) for 1
UCLA (+6) for 1/2

WKU moves from a lean to a play, obviously...before it gets back up to 10 pts. fwiw, i made them a 15 pt road fav...and don't expect 5 turnovers in 6 plays this week, lol.
and added a half play @ +6 pts on UCLA. i'll add another half play if it reaches +7 pts, but 2 units is the max i'd play on the game...or any game, for that matter.
still say the Bruins should be a 1 pt fav on the road, but that's just me. :badass:
 
since sunday afternoon, i've only added two plays. a half play on a Pac-12 total, and teased some monster-ass chalk...

Oregon St/Utah under 58 for 1/2
Stanford(-17) to WVU(-28) to Michigan(-25) to FSU(-22.5) for 1 to win 1

still looking at some other games/totals. will be involved in the bama/a&m rematch...and believe it or not, i'm trying to fight myself and just leave USC alone.
 
great looking card yanks. Care to share the or st Utah thoughts? I went over there with the Utah pace and their less than stellar defense. How you seeing that one play out? thanks in advance
 
VK said:
great looking card yanks. Care to share the or st Utah thoughts? I went over there with the Utah pace and their less than stellar defense. How you seeing that one play out? thanks in advance
Click to expand...

honestly, it's partly just gut...and don't really see it playing out much differently than the last two years have gone.
think the beavs will begin to tighten things up. they're a much better team than they've shown to date. and i like that the utes have byu on deck as well.

know it's not a popular total...and my #s don't really support it either.
 
@CTG_BAR said:
Looks good..lets finish 'the first 4 weeks' strong...
Click to expand...

:shake:



remaining leans...

Texas Tech
ULM
Alabama (or the over)
USC (not kidding, hehe)
Cal Poly
more totals, team totals, & a 1H or two...


we'll see what the line movers do to things tomorrow. :thumbsup2:
 
bloodhound said:
GL this Wk Yanks. I like a bunch of ur plays :cheers:
Click to expand...

thx, bud. :shake:


this is a rare week for me. usually, it takes me to mid-week to be ready with my #s/etc. but the stars aligned last saturday night...was home watching the late games, on the comp, drinking my XX Ambar, and the kids went to sleep early.
took me to 4am, but was ready for the lines to come out. happens once or twice a season, lol...so hopefully some of that pays off in the end.
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
:shake:




remaining leans...

Texas Tech
ULM
Alabama (or the over)
USC (not kidding, hehe)
Cal Poly
more totals, team totals, & a 1H or two...


we'll see what the line movers do to things tomorrow. :thumbsup2:
Click to expand...

like most of tha leans, tt, ulm, cal poly. keep rollin yanks
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
lines came out earlier than expected this week. thankfully, i had updated my #s late last night. anyhow, jumped on 5 of them right outta the gate. (well, as soon as i realized the lines were available. missed a better number or two already, dammit.)

UCLA (+4) for 1
Oregon (-23) for 1
Washington (-9.5) for 1
Rice (-3.5) for 1
Arizona St (-5.5) for 1

Pac-12 heavy to begin...couple on the road, and a couple at home. Was about 10 minutes late from being able to take Oregon -20, and I'm still steamed about that.

Hate the fact UCLA is a 9am start, pacific time. But they've had a week to rest, a cupcake on deck, then another week off. Made them a 1 pt fav on the road, so happy to take the points in this spot.

Made Oregon a 27 pt fav, so really would've rather got this at 20 pts...but it is what it is...and that's already up to 24.5 pts, lol. Tenny could stick with them early again, but they'll be blown away in the end.

Illinois looked good vs Cincy, but the party won't last long. Made UW a 17 pt fav, giving Illy full HF advantage in Chicago. Not an early start, thankfully. Won't quite be as easy as Boise though. Over in play here too.

What can I say...other than Kansas sucks, and Rice impressed vs A&M at times, before wearing down. Showed some fight, and they can score. Made Rice a 13 pt fav, so there was enough value to take it early.

Lastly, ASU...who I made exactly a 5.5 fav in this game. Took it now, cuz I didn't want to see a 6 later. This play is more situational....tough west coast roadie for Wisky...and imo, ASU is simply better. Only worry is Stanford is on deck.

Anyhow, sorry it took me so long to type. I'm still going back n forth with early lines, and may add another here shortly. Busy, busy...
Click to expand...

I don't think that Tenn can hang with Oregon.
UCLA is solid
Washington is on a mission.
No opinion on Rice, AZ.St.
Great start on the season. GL
 
two more totals...

Ohio St/Cal over 65.5 for 1/2
Alabama/A&M over 60.5 for 1/2

injury or not for the buckeyes...the Bears couldn't stop portland st from running all over them. and it's how much they've given up, and the big plays, that kept me away from taking the points...which i seriously considered. there's a lot of talent to take advantage of that (the Cal holes/weaknesses) with tOSU
that said, i obviously think Cal will put up some decent pts of their own. i like what i'm seeing outta the passing offense, dykes, and goff. post-tedford, it's a step in the right direction for sure. also, the NW game woulda been a lot closer if not for the tipped INTs and so forth.
anyhow, tOSU has some imperfections of their own. tough road trip...Cal played them fairly tight LY in ohio...and just see this as something like a 49-31 type game.

as for the other...like bama to win by 10 or 11, but went with the total. A&M defense not impressive to date. but despite the revenge, and a focused Saban...still think Johnny Football and that offense will have a fair measure of success.
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
Sat. 9/14
Louisville (-10) for 1
UCLA (+4) for 1
UCLA (+6) for 1/2
Oregon (-23) for 1
Washington (-9.5) for 1
WKU (-9.5) for 1
Rice (-3.5) for 1
Arizona St (-5.5) for 1
Oregon St/Utah under 58 for 1/2
Ohio St/Cal over 65.5 for 1/2
Alabama/A&M over 60.5 for 1/2
Stanford(-17) to WVU(-28) to Michigan(-25) to FSU(-22.5) for 1 to win 1
Click to expand...

winter ball for little league starts this sunday, so doubt i'll have another opportunity to be ready (and around) to hit any lines early like i did this week.
tomorrow will obviously be the determining factor, but wanted to keep notes on how i did in terms of getting the better #.

Louisville = 4.5 pts better than tonight's line.
UCLA = wow, it's down to +3 tonight. back n forth, but i'll take it.
Oregon = 5 pts better than tonight's line.
UW = 1/2 pt better.
WKU = fuck...reverse line mvmt has me concerned.
Rice = 3 pts better than tonight's line.
ASU = damn...went down to -4 pts.
teaser & totals = all same or 1/2 pt better.

so (as of tonight) the 3 main advantages were Louisville, Oregon, & Rice.
and the 2 mistakes (of hitting them so early) were WKU & ASU.

but like i said, they still gotta play the games. we'll see how it goes/plays out.
still love each one of my plays, with the only exception being WKU. didn't see that stuff coming. (ASU wont matter, imo.)
 
as for those remaining leans posted somewhere above, toss 'em. 2 final additions for the week though...

Arkansas 1H (-13.5) @ -115 for 1/2
Arizona 1H (-13.5) @ -115 for 1/2

good luck tomorrow. hope it's a good one. :cheers:
 
:shake:

Hope u hit em all besides ucla, that will be a great week for ya yanks ;) GL this week mr wet bandit ;)
 
tru said:
:shake:

Hope u hit em all besides ucla, that will be a great week for ya yanks ;) GL this week mr wet bandit ;)
Click to expand...

didn't hit as much as i woulda liked, but it went ok. thx, bud.
you're gonna have to fix UCLA in your power rankings now. :cheers:


DaRaiders said:
GL today...nice looking card.
Click to expand...

thx, raiders. :shake:


dilaudid8 said:
Yanks great job keep that money train rolling gl
Click to expand...

that's the bottom line... :cheers:
 
like i suspected, i'm not going to be ready when the lines come out tomorrow. baseball in the morning, and don't feel like staying up all nite to get my #s/etc ready to go.

anyhow...9-5 this week, 2.675 to the good.
especially after UCLA's huge win in Nebraska, was expecting to be/do much better today though.

WKU was simply a bad play. the other 4 losses i can live with, i guess.
but in terms of getting the early lines, it only turned out to have an effect on one game...Louisville. the others would've won or lost, regardless.

and again, i'm very happy with the Pac-12 today. don't get to say that much. but even with a loss, Cal scored the points i cared about.

will be around working on week #4 as soon as possible. not even sure i'm gonna get ay niffel action in for manana.
:cheers:


Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
YTD: 25-11, +12.96
 
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