CFB Week 3 Pick'em Pool Betting Trends

[Colin Wynner]

Here are the pool numbers for this week - Colorado again!

With four games in the books the pool is currently sitting at 54.5% on a very small sample of just 277 total picks (151-126), out of 3885 total picks.

Lop-sided games, top 20 most picked games (3-2 last week, ~40% historically):

Game/Spread	Fav_Picks	Dog_Picks	FAV_Pct	DOG_Pct	Total Picks	CFB Rank
Colorado -23.5 over Colorado State	314	17	94.9%​	5.1%​	331	1
Kansas State -3.5 over Missouri	257	27	90.5%​	9.5%​	284	2
Penn State -14.5 over Illinois	195	14	93.3%​	6.7%​	209	7
Florida State -26 over Boston College	111	19	85.4%​	14.6%​	130	16
Iowa State -3 over Ohio	69	28	71.1%​	28.9%​	97	17
North Carolina -7.5 over Minnesota	99	29	77.3%​	22.7%​	128	17
Alabama -33 over South Florida	77	16	82.8%​	17.2%​	93	18

Given that the spreads are frozen as of Thursday 10AM MST, it is interesting that Florida State with negative line value ended up on this list. The top 3 are clearly well out in front of the other games.

I have tracked the frozen line v. closing line, surprisingly it's only a little over 50% when the line has moved 1.5 or more points from freeze to pick deadline.

The remaining lop-sided games (taking out the top 20, historically these perform around 47%)

Game/Spread	Fav_Picks	Dog_Picks	FAV_Pct	DOG_Pct	Total Picks	CFB Rank
Oklahoma State -7 over South Alabama	78	9	89.7%​	10.3%​	87	21
Duke -18.5 over Northwestern	64	16	80.0%​	20.0%​	80	23
Nebraska -11 over Northern Illinois	63	12	84.0%​	16.0%​	75	26
TCU -7.5 over Houston	57	18	76.0%​	24.0%​	75	27
Iowa -28.5 over Western Michigan	7	53	11.7%​	88.3%​	60	31
App State -9.5 over East Carolina	40	15	72.7%​	27.3%​	55	33
Arkansas -8 over BYU	35	15	70.0%​	30.0%​	50	35
West Virginia -2.5 over Pittsburgh	39	10	79.6%​	20.4%​	49	36
Oklahoma -27.5 over Tulsa	39	8	83.0%​	17.0%​	47	38
Oregon St -24.5 over San Diego St	35	9	79.5%​	20.5%​	44	39
New Mexico -1.5 over New Mexico St	38	6	86.4%​	13.6%​	44	40
Cincinnati -14 over Miami (OH)	37	5	88.1%​	11.9%​	42	42
Arizona -18 over UTEP	33	8	80.5%​	19.5%​	41	43
Wisconsin -20 over Georgia Southern	29	8	78.4%​	21.6%​	37	47
Vanderbilt -4.5 over UNLV	29	7	80.6%​	19.4%​	36	48
Louisiana Tech -4.5 over North Texas	30	5	85.7%​	14.3%​	35	49
Toledo -7 over San Jose State	28	3	90.3%​	9.7%​	31	52
UCONN -7 over Florida International	6	23	20.7%​	79.3%​	29	53
Oregon -38 over Hawai'i	20	7	74.1%​	25.9%​	27	54
Wake Forest -14 over Old Dominion	22	4	84.6%​	15.4%​	26	55
Clemson -24.5 over Florida Atlantic	17	5	77.3%​	22.7%​	22	57
Eastern Michigan -7 over UMASS	17	2	89.5%​	10.5%​	19	58
UAB -2.5 over Louisiana	16	3	84.2%​	15.8%​	19	59
Kentucky -25.5 over Akron	13	5	72.2%​	27.8%​	18	60

Public Dogs (> 50% of the picks):

Game/Spread	Fav_Picks	Dog_Picks	FAV_Pct	DOG_Pct	Total Picks	CFB Rank
Iowa -28.5 over Western Michigan	7	53	11.7%​	88.3%​	60	31
UCONN -7 over Florida International	6	23	20.7%​	79.3%​	29	53
Texas -29.5 over Wyoming	38	40	48.7%​	51.3%​	78	24
Michigan -40.5 over Bowling Green	16	24	40.0%​	60.0%​	40	44
Louisville -10 over Indiana	17	22	43.6%​	56.4%​	39	45
Troy -3 over James Madison	15	16	48.4%​	51.6%​	31	51
Georgia State -7.5 over Charlotte	4	5	44.4%​	55.6%​	9	62

My Picks:

NEBRASKA (-11.0) over Northern Ill
FLORIDA (+6.5) over Tennessee
Georgia Tech (+18.0) over MISSISSIPPI
NEW MEXICO (-1.5) over New Mexico St.

BUFFALO (-8.5) over Las Vegas
PITTSBURGH (+2.5) over Cleveland

Good luck!

 

[youngblood]

Good stuff. Thanks for posting.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks for posting again

 

[Colin Wynner]

That was more like what I would expect - top 20/lopsided games went 2-5 and realistically Illinois probably should have covered that 14.5.

Public dogs had a day 5-2 (Western Michigan was brutal) but, outside of the Western Michigan game, the overall number of picks on each game were not significant enough to even play.

Pool overall went 43.6% ATS in College.

I posted a very mediocre 2-2 in CFB - Florida and Nebraska with curb stomp wins, Ga Tech was a brutal loss ATS and New Mexico is an atrocious team and equally atrocious call.