redbearde
Pretty much a regular
3-5 ML, +.52 units so far. Getting both sides of the Cal-Tenn game helped.
Wyoming +320. UVA is going to have to prove they're this much better than Wyoming, or most any other team who has a *win* before I'm going to shake my head no at this game. Perhaps a more reasonable number would be a pk or UVA -3. I have trouble seeing the Wahoos move the ball against anyone this year - at least for 3.2:1. This may not be the best move I've ever made...this will be UVA's home opener and Wyoming has to come across the country. But this is the kind of value I like going against bad teams that are supposed to be good.
Akron +350 at NCSU. Let's take stock of a few things. Marcus Stone still can't pass the damn ball. He's ass. That's all there is to it. He's like a MUCH lesser Mike Vick. Or Mike Vick with a broken leg. Stone can run, but the wolfpack isn't much of an option offense and teams will only have to pile 8 guys in the box to stop that run. Last week's App St. stats are abysmal. 96 total yards, 1.6 ypc. NCSU still has a decent defense...at least against a Div 1AA opponent. But keep looking. App scored 10 points on 92 yards. TEN POINTS. How? NCSU fumbled it 4 times, lost it 3 of those 4, and Marcus Stone maged to throw an INT with only 13 passing Attempts. NCSU only managed 259 total offensive yards, 217 being on the ground with that highly regarded rushing tandem. If the pack wants to compete in the ACC, it really needs to manage 300+ on the ground against this opponent. And with similarly abysmal 3rd down conversion rates, NCSU's going to get thrashed repeatedly this year.
Add to this that Akron looked pretty good to me last week. Okay, yes, Akron got spanked by Penn State, but I expected that, so back to what they actually did. Akron was able to move the ball and not just in ass time for over 200 yards. Akron recovered 2 PSU fumbles. Akron kept PSU under 300 yards of total offense. Zips managed 18 first downs including 4-5 on 4th down, though the 3rd down conversion of 5-17 ain't that good.....the point is that Akron made a decent showing for itself at Penn State, and NCSU pretty much did everything they could to lose the App St game. If they both do this again, and I expect they will (remember, I'm an NCSU guy, I've been intently watching this shit for years), Wolfpack fans will be walking out of the stadium next week grumbling, "how could we lose to AKRON at Home???"
Tulsa +204 at BYU. Before the AZ game, BYU did some sort of warm-up fu. It was funny. It didn't help them move the ball any. The one TD BYU had came from a recovered fumble on the AZ 6 yard line(i remember this, though it's not recorded in the box score....am I on crack?), and they damn near didn't get that one in either. When either team managed some semblance of a drive, and they did, they always stalled somewhere they shouldn't. It was a lackluster shit performance for a couple teams that were supposed to be offensive powerhouses. BYU got the benefit of an INT, but they coughed up a couple fumbles too. Somehow BYU managed almost 300 yards of total offense. AZ managed just over 230. The lack of scoring in that game was ridiculous, and neither defense looked all that good. I watched this game without another game's distraction, and I'm still unclear on how the Wildcats won...besides the obvious ending with more points. Regardless, if BYU doesn't step it up significantly this week, Tulsa has more than a good shot here. 2:1 looks okay to me, though obviously more would be nice. Good value is enough for me to bet on. It's no 3.5 to 1 that we get with Akron....I think that's GREAT.
Penn St. +290. Against GT, the domers collected 384 yards of total offense for 14 points. They collected 3.5ypr for a total of 138 yards. ND gave up 4.3 ypc giving up 119 yards ruhing. GT also grabbed 140 yards passing - Reggie Ball, not the greatest passing QB ever... ND also committed 11 penalties costing them 80 yards. I didn't see much of that game. Anyone know what those mostly were? Offsides/False start?
Brady Quinn looked okay. That's wretched for a heisman candidate. If he doesn't step it up, ND won't go anywhere this year. Penn St didn't have many first downs (and relatively few yards) against the Zips, but I think that was largely due to the Zips giving up big plays early in drives and short fields for the Lions. Morelli looked only okay at 50% passing completions, but he did manage to not HURT his team with INTs. If Penn St plays [big]mistake free football, I think they have at least a 50-50 shot at winning. +290 is reeeeal tastey here.
San Jose St, I think carries with it a higher chance of failure than the others. I think the biggest thing they have going for them and their value is their homefield against a weakass stanford team with no defense. Stanford actually had possession more than Oregon did, but methinks that had to do more with Oregon's offensive -effectiveness- rather than Stanford's "effective" ball control offense getting 2.9ypc or Stanford's defense allowing 70% 3rd down efficiency. Oregon only needed 10 first downs.
In short, Stanford has zero defense and marginal offense, at best. For a PAC 10 team, the offense is total ass.
SJSU, not that I want to tout Washington very much, did fairly well. No picks, no fumbles, and SJSU manged to score in every quarter (albeit FGs, mostly). Washington ran all over SJSU (7.3ypc for 300 yards), so perhaps Stanford's rushing attack will do as well...kinda doubt it. SJSU was able to move the ball against the Husky defense for 373yards...mostly through the air. The Stanford secondary should have some more trouble this week against Tafralis who managed to complete 28/35 against Washington. If SJSU can squeak a few decent runs by to keep Stanford's D on their toes, and with that D-line, they ought to be able to, then I have GOT to believe SJSU has at least a 50/50 shot of winning at home.
Okay, so SJSU did lose the game, and there are some issues with Defense here, too. However, I do see a good shot at this team winning, too.
I'm open to any other suggestions fellas, but these 5 teams look like good value to me. To recap, I have already played:
Wyoming +320
Akron +350
Tulsa +204
Penn St +290
SJSU +370
I also have some spread plays:
So far, I'm 14-4-1, +11.25 units
Pitt -10 (+102)
VPI -12.5 (+102)
Akron +9.5 (+100)
Wyoming +8 (-102)
Washington +17 (-106)
San Jose St +10 (+101)
Clemson -3 (+112)
Pitt looks like the real deal this year.....even with Wannstadt. Cinci better man up to even consider a shot.
VPI against UNC. Smurf Village couldn't beat a no-defense Rutgers. No way do they compete with VPI.
Washington should keep it close with Oklahoma through Offensive willpower. Stack the box, and another TCU-like win could hit. I'm not taking that ML, btw.
Clemson is looking real tough this year, and without Ryan, BC should come down a notch. This should be a real good game, and I don't usually like to bet those, but I think Clemson will win by a TD or so. Perhaps 10. I think BC will have an uphill battle to even keep it that close. The trenchfight, though, will be a LOT of fun to watch.
Okay Sooners...post your unders so I can tail again.......
ateeheehee
...edited to update the record with FSU & the under plays
Wyoming +320. UVA is going to have to prove they're this much better than Wyoming, or most any other team who has a *win* before I'm going to shake my head no at this game. Perhaps a more reasonable number would be a pk or UVA -3. I have trouble seeing the Wahoos move the ball against anyone this year - at least for 3.2:1. This may not be the best move I've ever made...this will be UVA's home opener and Wyoming has to come across the country. But this is the kind of value I like going against bad teams that are supposed to be good.
Akron +350 at NCSU. Let's take stock of a few things. Marcus Stone still can't pass the damn ball. He's ass. That's all there is to it. He's like a MUCH lesser Mike Vick. Or Mike Vick with a broken leg. Stone can run, but the wolfpack isn't much of an option offense and teams will only have to pile 8 guys in the box to stop that run. Last week's App St. stats are abysmal. 96 total yards, 1.6 ypc. NCSU still has a decent defense...at least against a Div 1AA opponent. But keep looking. App scored 10 points on 92 yards. TEN POINTS. How? NCSU fumbled it 4 times, lost it 3 of those 4, and Marcus Stone maged to throw an INT with only 13 passing Attempts. NCSU only managed 259 total offensive yards, 217 being on the ground with that highly regarded rushing tandem. If the pack wants to compete in the ACC, it really needs to manage 300+ on the ground against this opponent. And with similarly abysmal 3rd down conversion rates, NCSU's going to get thrashed repeatedly this year.
Add to this that Akron looked pretty good to me last week. Okay, yes, Akron got spanked by Penn State, but I expected that, so back to what they actually did. Akron was able to move the ball and not just in ass time for over 200 yards. Akron recovered 2 PSU fumbles. Akron kept PSU under 300 yards of total offense. Zips managed 18 first downs including 4-5 on 4th down, though the 3rd down conversion of 5-17 ain't that good.....the point is that Akron made a decent showing for itself at Penn State, and NCSU pretty much did everything they could to lose the App St game. If they both do this again, and I expect they will (remember, I'm an NCSU guy, I've been intently watching this shit for years), Wolfpack fans will be walking out of the stadium next week grumbling, "how could we lose to AKRON at Home???"
Tulsa +204 at BYU. Before the AZ game, BYU did some sort of warm-up fu. It was funny. It didn't help them move the ball any. The one TD BYU had came from a recovered fumble on the AZ 6 yard line(i remember this, though it's not recorded in the box score....am I on crack?), and they damn near didn't get that one in either. When either team managed some semblance of a drive, and they did, they always stalled somewhere they shouldn't. It was a lackluster shit performance for a couple teams that were supposed to be offensive powerhouses. BYU got the benefit of an INT, but they coughed up a couple fumbles too. Somehow BYU managed almost 300 yards of total offense. AZ managed just over 230. The lack of scoring in that game was ridiculous, and neither defense looked all that good. I watched this game without another game's distraction, and I'm still unclear on how the Wildcats won...besides the obvious ending with more points. Regardless, if BYU doesn't step it up significantly this week, Tulsa has more than a good shot here. 2:1 looks okay to me, though obviously more would be nice. Good value is enough for me to bet on. It's no 3.5 to 1 that we get with Akron....I think that's GREAT.
Penn St. +290. Against GT, the domers collected 384 yards of total offense for 14 points. They collected 3.5ypr for a total of 138 yards. ND gave up 4.3 ypc giving up 119 yards ruhing. GT also grabbed 140 yards passing - Reggie Ball, not the greatest passing QB ever... ND also committed 11 penalties costing them 80 yards. I didn't see much of that game. Anyone know what those mostly were? Offsides/False start?
Brady Quinn looked okay. That's wretched for a heisman candidate. If he doesn't step it up, ND won't go anywhere this year. Penn St didn't have many first downs (and relatively few yards) against the Zips, but I think that was largely due to the Zips giving up big plays early in drives and short fields for the Lions. Morelli looked only okay at 50% passing completions, but he did manage to not HURT his team with INTs. If Penn St plays [big]mistake free football, I think they have at least a 50-50 shot at winning. +290 is reeeeal tastey here.
San Jose St, I think carries with it a higher chance of failure than the others. I think the biggest thing they have going for them and their value is their homefield against a weakass stanford team with no defense. Stanford actually had possession more than Oregon did, but methinks that had to do more with Oregon's offensive -effectiveness- rather than Stanford's "effective" ball control offense getting 2.9ypc or Stanford's defense allowing 70% 3rd down efficiency. Oregon only needed 10 first downs.
In short, Stanford has zero defense and marginal offense, at best. For a PAC 10 team, the offense is total ass.
SJSU, not that I want to tout Washington very much, did fairly well. No picks, no fumbles, and SJSU manged to score in every quarter (albeit FGs, mostly). Washington ran all over SJSU (7.3ypc for 300 yards), so perhaps Stanford's rushing attack will do as well...kinda doubt it. SJSU was able to move the ball against the Husky defense for 373yards...mostly through the air. The Stanford secondary should have some more trouble this week against Tafralis who managed to complete 28/35 against Washington. If SJSU can squeak a few decent runs by to keep Stanford's D on their toes, and with that D-line, they ought to be able to, then I have GOT to believe SJSU has at least a 50/50 shot of winning at home.
Okay, so SJSU did lose the game, and there are some issues with Defense here, too. However, I do see a good shot at this team winning, too.
I'm open to any other suggestions fellas, but these 5 teams look like good value to me. To recap, I have already played:
Wyoming +320
Akron +350
Tulsa +204
Penn St +290
SJSU +370
I also have some spread plays:
So far, I'm 14-4-1, +11.25 units
Pitt -10 (+102)
VPI -12.5 (+102)
Akron +9.5 (+100)
Wyoming +8 (-102)
Washington +17 (-106)
San Jose St +10 (+101)
Clemson -3 (+112)
Pitt looks like the real deal this year.....even with Wannstadt. Cinci better man up to even consider a shot.
VPI against UNC. Smurf Village couldn't beat a no-defense Rutgers. No way do they compete with VPI.
Washington should keep it close with Oklahoma through Offensive willpower. Stack the box, and another TCU-like win could hit. I'm not taking that ML, btw.
Clemson is looking real tough this year, and without Ryan, BC should come down a notch. This should be a real good game, and I don't usually like to bet those, but I think Clemson will win by a TD or so. Perhaps 10. I think BC will have an uphill battle to even keep it that close. The trenchfight, though, will be a LOT of fun to watch.
Okay Sooners...post your unders so I can tail again.......
ateeheehee
...edited to update the record with FSU & the under plays
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