CFB Week 14

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Had some major computer issues last weekend, and I'm still not sure they're completely resolved, but it definitely hurt me last week. I completely fucked up, rushed things, and had a horrible Saturday last week...especially considering my comp problems kept me off (kept me from playing) posted leans on Arizona, Washington St, etc. But the lesson learned was that I should've just left the day's card completely alone...fixed my comp...and not come back until things could be done right. It is what it is now, but it did sting. Anyhow, moving on to the new week/card...and, as always, will update this 1st post as I make plays during the week.



Thursday 11/28
Texas (-4) @ -110 for 3/4 W
Ole Miss (-3) @ -120 for 3/4 L
Friday 11/29
ECU/Marshall over 64.5 @ -110 for 3/4 W
OSU/Oregon over 68.5 @ -110 for 3/4 W
WashSt(+23) to OregonSt(+29) for 1.1 to win 1 W
SJST (+7.5) @ -110 for 1/2 W
Saturday 11/30
AF/Colorado St over 59.5 @ -110 for 3/4
Missouri TT over 35 @ -120 for 3/4
Syracuse (+3) @ -110 for 1/2
Alabama(-3) to Bama/Auburn ov48.5 for .90 to win 3/4
Arizona(+18.5) to Zona/ASU ov53.5 for .90 to win 3/4
OhioSt(-3) to KSt(-5.5) to Wisky(-12.5) to Stanford(-3) for 1.1 to win 1



Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
Week #5: 6-6, +0.650
Week #6: 6-3-1, +3.600
Week #7: 5-5, -0.400
Week #8: 7-7, -0.900
Week #9: 6-6, -0.490
Week #10: 4-6, -2.350
Week #11: 9-4-1, +3.950
Week #12: 5-6-1, -1.550
Week #13: 1-5, -4.275
YTD: 81-66-3, +11.120


Happy Thanksgiving, & good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
 
Last edited:
wish I had only one bad week ... best of luck .. your west coast games are toughest to cap this week imo.. well one rather easy bet imo .. but rest are pretty tough.

good luck and happy thanksgiving
 
gonna talk UCLA now, last week and this week...

as for last week, UCLA was the correct side...it just didn't cash. ASU dominated the 1st half, and UCLA dominated the 2nd. (they've owned the 3rd Q against everyone but Oregon & Stanford, btw.) lots of points in the game to go to, but the bottom line (regarding the spread) was the failed chip-shot FG in the 4th...even though 2 easy FGs weren't converted. worst case, UCLA should've covered though...but as a fan, I'm definitely still disappointed...as they were so primed to pull off that comeback.

as for this week, i'm laying off the game. UCLA just has too many issues right now...injuries, missed FGs, Hundley not being able to make quick enough decisions, and (most importantly) a very depleted o-line. too many youngin's gonna start on the o-line this weekend, so all the same problems will be there.
on top of that, UCLA is in the 4th game of a killer 4 game stretch...arizona, washington, arizona st, and usc...so it's just simple attrition.
don't get me wrong...if all things were equal...i fully believe UCLA is the best team in the Pac-12 South. but that's the problem...all things aren't equal...since they're at the end of a brutal stretch of games, and they've got too many injuries (mainly to the o-line)...so i'll just be watching this rivalry game.

unfortunately, USC catches the Bruins at a very opportune time. :(
 
VK said:
wish I had only one bad week ... best of luck .. your west coast games are toughest to cap this week imo.. well one rather easy bet imo .. but rest are pretty tough.

good luck and happy thanksgiving
Click to expand...

happy turkey day, VK :shake:


it's a tough week all around. here are my lines (from my PR #s) for the Pac-12...

Washington (-15.5)
Oregon (-20.5)
Utah (-18)
Stanford (-14.5)
USC (-4)
Arizona St (-12.5)

but tbh, despite my #s, i like 4 of those to be tighter games than that.
 
the Top 25 according to my PR rankings...


[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]116.78[/TD]
[TD]Florida State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]115.90[/TD]
[TD]Alabama
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]111.91[/TD]
[TD]Oregon
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]111.31[/TD]
[TD]Baylor
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]111.16[/TD]
[TD]Ohio State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]110.00[/TD]
[TD]Stanford
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]109.48[/TD]
[TD]Wisconsin
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]108.87[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]108.72[/TD]
[TD]Arizona State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]107.03[/TD]
[TD]Clemson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]106.95[/TD]
[TD]LSU
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]105.41[/TD]
[TD]Missouri
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.94[/TD]
[TD]South Carolina
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.81[/TD]
[TD]Washington
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.85[/TD]
[TD]USC
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.84[/TD]
[TD]Michigan State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.03[/TD]
[TD]Georgia
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.91[/TD]
[TD]Auburn
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.42[/TD]
[TD]Texas A&M
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.29[/TD]
[TD]UCLA
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.98[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.11[/TD]
[TD]BYU
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]99.62[/TD]
[TD]Arizona
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]99.51[/TD]
[TD]Notre Dame
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]98.97[/TD]
[TD]Louisville
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
the Bottom 15 according to my PR rankings...



[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]70.04[/TD]
[TD]UAB
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]69.58[/TD]
[TD]New Mexico
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]68.99[/TD]
[TD]Texas State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]68.96[/TD]
[TD]Air Force
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]68.15[/TD]
[TD]Louisiana Tech
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.59
[/TD]
[TD]WesternMichigan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.36[/TD]
[TD]UTEP
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]61.97[/TD]
[TD]Massachusetts
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]59.63[/TD]
[TD]Eastern Michigan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]59.28
[/TD]
[TD]NewMexicoState
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]59.04[/TD]
[TD]Idaho
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]58.68[/TD]
[TD]Georgia State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]58.12[/TD]
[TD]Miami-OH
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]56.31[/TD]
[TD]So Mississippi
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]55.95[/TD]
[TD]FIU
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Alright...be back later with some plays. Just wanted everything set up beforehand in case I'm forced to use the phone.

Have a great Thanksgiving with your families. :cheers:


And after the season, while we're all capping the bowl match-ups, I'll post my full PR #s/rankings in case they help anyone out. (Just won't include the info behind the #s.) Nevertheless, along with HFA, they've gotten very accurate at predicting the lines.
 
for Thanksgiving...

Texas (-4) @ -110 for 3/4
Ole Miss (-3) @ -120 for 3/4

my PR #s make Texas an 8 pt home favorite here. Tech's offense concerns me a bit, so it's not a full play. but their defense is so bad that Texas should be able to run at will, controlling the game/outcome. besides, the Horns have pretty much owned this series.

the Egg Bowl line is right where it should be in terms of my PR #s. Messy St needs a win here to go bowling beyond this Egg Bowl, so this also isn't a full play. but with Prescott doubtful for the rivalry, just see the Rebels as the better all-around squad in this one.
 
maaaan. i dont have the stomach to watch the replay so i'm still not sure what happened. i cant believe they didnt get that final TD.

such a schizo performance vs asu i have no idea what to think. the team has proven itself on the road this season tho so i like our chances.
 
sportjunky said:
maaaan. i dont have the stomach to watch the replay so i'm still not sure what happened. i cant believe they didnt get that final TD.

such a schizo performance vs asu i have no idea what to think. the team has proven itself on the road this season tho so i like our chances.
Click to expand...

not much of a roadie... ;)

save yourself the pain though, and don't watch. had they not just fucked up a 20 yd chip shot the series before, they woulda only needed a FG on the last drive to win.
still thought they were gonna do it...but the penalties kept coming up at bad times, and the 0-line couldn't block the pass rush. hundley's decision making has gotten way too damn slow as well. frustrating, because they could've had the game...and the crowd knew it.
 
a couple west coast, non-Pac 12 leans...and yes, i may be crazy.

Fresno St should be favored by 12 over a reeling San Jose St. and a rolling San Diego St should be a 6.5 pt fav over UNLV according to my numbers. but i'll be damned if i'm not leaning hard to backing both home doggies, despite there being no line value in doing so.

btw, it may not play out that way here...but when they get to Sundays, Fales > Carr every day of the week.
 
jumped back on because i got some totals outta the way tonight. all overs, so will be looking for points. speaking of that, i'm 99% sure i'll be adding an FSU TT over 36 in the very near future. kinda looks too easy though.

anyhow, two each for Friday/Saturday...

ECU/Marshall over 64.5 @ -110 for 3/4
OSU/Oregon over 68.5 @ -110 for 3/4
AF/Colorado St over 59.5 @ -110 for 3/4
Missouri TT over 35 @ -120 for 3/4

they won't surpass 120 pts like last year's double OT game, but definitely see both the Pirates and the Herd reaching the 40s here.
both Oregon schools reeling down the stretch, but the Civil War should bring the best outta these two offenses. history says over too.
colly st should roll, as the flyboys can't stop anything. that said, the rams have issues with the run...and AF has owned them L5 yrs.
last non-bowl game for Johnny Football, but Aggies defense is suspect. gave up nearly this # to lowly Arkansas. maybe they keep it close...but either way, Mizzou definitely gets into the 40s here. nice revenge spot as well.
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
jumped back on because i got some totals outta the way tonight. all overs, so will be looking for points. speaking of that, i'm 99% sure i'll be adding an FSU TT over 36 in the very near future. kinda looks too easy though.

anyhow, two each for Friday/Saturday...

ECU/Marshall over 64.5 @ -110 for 3/4
OSU/Oregon over 68.5 @ -110 for 3/4
AF/Colorado St over 59.5 @ -110 for 3/4
Missouri TT over 35 @ -120 for 3/4

they won't surpass 120 pts like last year's double OT game, but definitely see both the Pirates and the Herd reaching the 40s here.
both Oregon schools reeling down the stretch, but the Civil War should bring the best outta these two offenses. history says over too.
colly st should roll, as the flyboys can't stop anything. that said, the rams have issues with the run...and AF has owned them L5 yrs.
last non-bowl game for Johnny Football, but Aggies defense is suspect. gave up nearly this # to lowly Arkansas. maybe they keep it close...but either way, Mizzou definitely gets into the 40s here. nice revenge spot as well.
Click to expand...

like those totals

GL on all Yanks
 
tru said:
agree wit texas, GL this week john an happy thanksgiving
:shake:
Click to expand...

happy t-day, mike. tejas was good. :cheers:


bloodhound said:
like those totals

GL on all Yanks
Click to expand...

thx, hound...GL to you as well. :shake:


Schrute said:
Great season buddy

Finish strong
Click to expand...

TY, Dwight. Will try not to fuck too much up pre-bowls. ;)


Jimmydafreak said:
With you on that Air Force OVER. Seems almost too easy.
Click to expand...

i know what you mean, jimmy. the FSU team total makes me feel the same way, fwiw. but hopefully they will go as planned.

:shake:
 
two more for Friday...

WashSt(+23) to OregonSt(+29) for 1.1 to win 1
SJST (+7.5) @ -110 for 1/2

ended up teasing the dogs in the two NW rivalry games. liked both straight, just wasn't totally sold. Wazzou & UW are typically close games, and under games. but with a bowl in hand, off a huge upset...not to mention revenge...i felt better increasing the spread. same goes for the beavers, considering the way they've played of late. already on the over here. but it's a rare occurrence where either of these match-ups have gotten beyond these teased up numbers.

and taking a small stab (as mentioned) on san jose st, as they're capable of pulling off the upset here...despite the last few games. fresno's got the better offense...even if Fales is the better QB (at the next level)...and both defenses suck. hope nerves set in, and they play 'not to lose' tomorrow...as fresno pretty much deserved a couple losses already. maybe, just maybe, sjst can squeak out bowl eligibility after all.
 
well, 1-1 on turkey day. tejas played out as planned, but ole piss was just too retarded.

nothing else intrigues me on friday, but will be back with more additions for saturday.
 
took a little bit of luck at the end (with the beaver/duck over), but a nice little friday sweep of the action.

:shake:

------------------

tangent time...

bye bye, fresno st. sorry...nothing personal...my gut said SJST, so i took them small. the 'see you later' is for posing as a team that 'deserved' a big bowl game.

i'm just thankful that you're not going to 'waste' a coveted spot in one of those big bowl games now. hopefully N Illinois won't 'waste' a spot either.


[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]97.44[/TD]
[TD]Fresno State [/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
(#30 on my list via my PR #s)

[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]96.71[/TD]
[TD]Northern Illinois
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
(#31 on my list via my PR #s)


not saying my PR #s are anything near gospel...just saying fuck the W/L record if it's this blatant. it's not like Utah or Boise in year's past, where they can actually compete/win the big bowl game.
anyhow, it's all meaningless w/out a true playoff...which will never happen. when we get 4, we'll need 8...and so forth.
oh, and ohio st...without a Bama or FSU loss...considering only 2 teams make it...as of today, you simply do not have a claim to the MNC game.

end of tangent...
 
still thinking about the FSU team total, as well as one other potential play. but for now, 4 more additions for Saturday...

Syracuse (+3) @ -110 for 1/2
Alabama(-3) to Bama/Auburn ov48.5 for .90 to win 3/4
Arizona(+18.5) to Zona/ASU ov53.5 for .90 to win 3/4
OhioSt(-3) to KSt(-5.5) to Wisky(-12.5) to Stanford(-3) for 1.1 to win 1

went a little teaser happy, i guess. wasn't necessary with either Washington St or Oregon St, but it sure felt nice having such a big cushion. anyhow...

took Cuse for a couple reasons. one, a win and they're bowl eligible. two, their run defense. but i stayed small here because their QB/offense is just bad.
not going to explain all the teasers. but will say that most of these teams will be playing 'not to lose' imo. zona/asu is almost always a tight game as well. auburn is lucky as hell, and simply outclassed...but considering the huge rivalry here, i felt that i had to tease bama down. lastly, don't think that ASU & Stanford aren't playing for something tomorrow...as the winner will host the Pac-12 championship...and we all saw the 1st half in Palo Alto back in September...so just saying, whether they cover or not, the W is important for both squads manana.
 
damn man nice job...why the hell wud I just not tail? I cannot do better!

great job [hey I had Texas w/o you]
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
Had some major computer issues last weekend, and I'm still not sure they're completely resolved, but it definitely hurt me last week. I completely fucked up, rushed things, and had a horrible Saturday last week...especially considering my comp problems kept me off (kept me from playing) posted leans on Arizona, Washington St, etc. But the lesson learned was that I should've just left the day's card completely alone...fixed my comp...and not come back until things could be done right. It is what it is now, but it did sting. Anyhow, moving on to the new week/card...and, as always, will update this 1st post as I make plays during the week.



Thursday 11/28
Texas (-4) @ -110 for 3/4 W
Ole Miss (-3) @ -120 for 3/4 L
Friday 11/29
ECU/Marshall over 64.5 @ -110 for 3/4 W
OSU/Oregon over 68.5 @ -110 for 3/4 W
WashSt(+23) to OregonSt(+29) for 1.1 to win 1 W
SJST (+7.5) @ -110 for 1/2 W
Saturday 11/30
AF/Colorado St over 59.5 @ -110 for 3/4
Missouri TT over 35 @ -120 for 3/4
Syracuse (+3) @ -110 for 1/2
Alabama(-3) to Bama/Auburn ov48.5 for .90 to win 3/4
Arizona(+18.5) to Zona/ASU ov53.5 for .90 to win 3/4
OhioSt(-3) to KSt(-5.5) to Wisky(-12.5) to Stanford(-3) for 1.1 to win 1



Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
Week #5: 6-6, +0.650
Week #6: 6-3-1, +3.600
Week #7: 5-5, -0.400
Week #8: 7-7, -0.900
Week #9: 6-6, -0.490
Week #10: 4-6, -2.350
Week #11: 9-4-1, +3.950
Week #12: 5-6-1, -1.550
Week #13: 1-5, -4.275
YTD: 81-66-3, +11.120


Happy Thanksgiving, & good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
Click to expand...
great job keep that money train rolling bol
 
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