CFB Week 12

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
I'm a little bit late to the party this week. I've been working on the card, updating my PR #s, and just watching all these weeknight games from the sidelines. Last week was solid though...a nice bounce back from the prior week...going 9-4-1, 3.95 units to the good. Moving on to the new week though, tbh, I've got some mixed feelings regarding Saturday's slate...but hopefully it'll be fine in the end. Anyhow, as always, will update this 1st post as I make plays during the week.



Friday 11/15
UCLA(+4) to UW/UCLA under 67 for 1.1 to win 1 L
Saturday 11/16
Wisconsin TT over 47 @ -115 for 1
Baylor TT over 56.5 @ -115 for 1
Oregon St/Arizona St over 63.5 @ -110 for 3/4
Georgia/Auburn over 63.5 @ -110 for 3/4
ULL(-14) to ArkySt(-.5) for 1.2 to win 1
FAU(-10) to Rice(-8.5) for 1.2 to win 1
UCF(-10) to SMU(-9.5) for 1.1 to win 1
Texas (+3) @ -110 for 1
Stanford (-3) @ -110 for 1
Wash St/Arizona over 63 @ -110 for 3/4
ML Parlay uSC/SMU/BSU/ASU/Bama/Rice for 3/4 to win 3/4



Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
Week #5: 6-6, +0.650
Week #6: 6-3-1, +3.600
Week #7: 5-5, -0.400
Week #8: 7-7, -0.900
Week #9: 6-6, -0.490
Week #10: 4-6, -2.350
Week #11: 9-4-1, +3.950
YTD: 75-55-2, +16.945


Good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
 
Last edited:
The Top 24 according to my PR #s...


[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]116.64[/TD]
[TD]Alabama [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]116.14[/TD]
[TD]Florida State [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]115.55[/TD]
[TD]Baylor [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]114.91[/TD]
[TD]Oregon [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]111.43[/TD]
[TD]Ohio State [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]110.14[/TD]
[TD]Stanford [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]108.96[/TD]
[TD]Arizona State [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]107.36[/TD]
[TD]Wisconsin [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]105.59[/TD]
[TD]Clemson [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.69[/TD]
[TD]South Carolina [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.64[/TD]
[TD]Texas A&M [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.50[/TD]
[TD]Missouri [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.42[/TD]
[TD]LSU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.50[/TD]
[TD]Washington [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.42[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma State[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.04[/TD]
[TD]USC[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.60[/TD]
[TD]Auburn [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.53[/TD]
[TD]BYU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.85[/TD]
[TD]UCLA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.40[/TD]
[TD]Louisville [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.30[/TD]
[TD]Michigan State [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.82[/TD]
[TD]Georgia [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.74[/TD]
[TD]Kansas State [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.62[/TD]
[TD]Texas [/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Stopped at 24 because these are the only teams over 100 in my rankings.
 
And the Bottom 10 according to my PR #s...


[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]64.99[/TD]
[TD]WesternMichigan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.09[/TD]
[TD]UTEP[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.31[/TD]
[TD]Massachusetts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]61.69[/TD]
[TD]Eastern Michigan [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60.66
[/TD]
[TD]NewMexicoState
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]59.55[/TD]
[TD]Miami-OH[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]58.96[/TD]
[TD]Idaho [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]58.66[/TD]
[TD]So Mississippi[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]57.92[/TD]
[TD]FIU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]54.68[/TD]
[TD]Georgia State[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


These are the only teams below 70 in my rankings...though Air Force is getting close to joining the group.
 
A part of why I've got mixed feelings about this card, and a part of why I'm late to the party, is simply the fact that the Pac-12 lines this week were set incredibly fucking tight.

UW/UCLA...I made UCLA a 1.5 pt home fav. (Line has sat @ 2.5 all week. If it went to a 3, $ would get out of balance...so 2 to 2.5 is correct.) This is the definition of a coin flip game, giving a slight edge to the home team.

Wash St/Arizona...I made Arizona an 11.5 pt home favorite. (Line has come down to 11.)

Utah/Oregon...I made Oregon a 23 pt home fav. (Line has gone up, but can't back Utah here.)

Cal/Colorado...I made Colorado a 2.5 pt home fav. (Line has sat near this # all week.)

Stanford/USC...I made Stanford a 3.5 pt road favorite. (Line has sat near this # all week.)

Oregon St/Arizona St...I made ASU a 14 pt home fav. (Same story as the others.)
 
^^ all that said, i can't leave Friday night alone...

UCLA(+4) to UW/UCLA under 67 for 1.1 to win 1

These teams are so close, and closely matched, on both sides of the ball. Both Price & Hundley have underperformed at times this year, but both are very capable/dangerous dual threat QBs. Even with Jack, not to mention James returning, you gotta give the RB edge to UW with Sankey. Conversely, the Bruins have the defensive edge thanks to their linebackers. But this is simply two very solid teams, both very well coached, that will battle tomorrow night.
Should be a very tight/great game, slightly favoring the home team. So I teased UCLA to the under here. Considering the full picture, including the history of this series, I expect a lot of running in the game plans...especially since both sides will have the horses to execute that...and since both QBs have struggled here & there, and against the better defenses they've faced.
Anyhow, I can't wait to watch this game. As a Bruins fan, it's like every week is a playoff game...in the hopes of getting a rematch against one of Oregon or Stanford in the end.
 
the 1st set of plays for Saturday...

Wisconsin TT over 47 @ -115 for 1
Baylor TT over 56.5 @ -115 for 1
Oregon St/Arizona St over 63.5 @ -110 for 3/4
Georgia/Auburn over 63.5 @ -110 for 3/4

some totals/points to kick things off.

As for the two team totals...neither Indiana or Texas Tech have been playing anything remotely resembling good defense this year. On the flip side, Wisky seems to love throwing up huge #s against Indiana...and Baylor seems to love throwing up huge #s against anybody at home. Wouldn't be surprised to see both of these go over by 2 TDs, meaning Wisky passes 60 pts and Baylor reaches 70 pts again.
As for the two overs...for simplicity's sake...just see two big time barn burners in these match-ups.
 
the 2nd set of plays for Saturday...

ULL(-14) to ArkySt(-.5) for 1.2 to win 1
FAU(-10) to Rice(-8.5) for 1.2 to win 1
UCF(-10) to SMU(-9.5) for 1.1 to win 1

went a bit teaser happy with these 2 teamers.

For my Sun Belt teaser...I made Louisiana a 30 pt rd fav, and Arky St a 13 pt hm fav.
For my Conference USA teaser...I made FAU a 19 pt rd fav, and Rice an 18.5 pt hm fav.
For my AAC teaser...I made UCF a 21 pt rd fav, and SMU a 14.5 pt hm fav.

These are mainly fading the bad team in a mismatch...but I also really like both Arky St and SMU this week, so might play both of these straight as well. Just would want the lines to come back a bit in both cases.
 
alright, that's enough for tonight. the totals and teasers are outta the way, but definitely more plays to come before Saturday's games.
besides, i've got 4 more Pac-12 games to try to figure out. ;)


time for some... :sleepy:
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
the 1st set of plays for Saturday...

Wisconsin TT over 47 @ -115 for 1
Baylor TT over 56.5 @ -115 for 1
Oregon St/Arizona St over 63.5 @ -110 for 3/4
Georgia/Auburn over 63.5 @ -110 for 3/4

some totals/points to kick things off.

As for the two team totals...neither Indiana or Texas Tech have been playing anything remotely resembling good defense this year. On the flip side, Wisky seems to love throwing up huge #s against Indiana...and Baylor seems to love throwing up huge #s against anybody at home. Wouldn't be surprised to see both of these go over by 2 TDs, meaning Wisky passes 60 pts and Baylor reaches 70 pts again.
As for the two overs...for simplicity's sake...just see two big time barn burners in these match-ups.
Click to expand...

The Tx Tech/Baylor game is being played in Dallas, not Waco, but I dont think that slows the Baylor offense down any.
 
well, i fucked up on friday...one TD too many. should've just played ucla...or teased it with the over, lol. but happy the Bruins won.


a few additions for today...

Texas (+3) @ -110 for 1
Stanford (-3) @ -110 for 1
Wash St/Arizona over 63 @ -110 for 3/4

it never works out when i flat out tail something, but tejas (tbh) is simply tailing Steele's/Northcoast's GOY that i saw posted.
conversely, i'm fading damn near every tout/pundit that's taking usc later today...and backing simply the much better/healthier team to win.
lastly, i'd be surprised if there's a game today with more total snaps/plays than wazzou/zona...and knowing Leach will be throwing/playing catch up to the bitter end, i couldnt pass up the over here. carey will be well north of 200 yds as well.

maybe one more play later. gotta admit, i'm surprised tejas is their GOY though...
 
still working on/looking at a couple things, but...

ML Parlay uSC/SMU/BSU/ASU/Bama/Rice for 3/4 to win 3/4

a big 6-teamer, lol...and yes, i'm rounding off some change in the amount...not in my favor though. (S Carolina, SMU, Boise St, Arizona St, Alabama, and Rice...all should win by double digits...but you know what they say about the best laid plans.)
 
and Wisky made me fuckin sweat things after a sweet 1st Q, dammit. next time, try not sucking on the sausages mid-game. should've been comfortably in the 60s.
but it's a win :shake:
 
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