CFB Week 12

[Timh]

YTD Record

Sides 44-38, +11.15
Totals 9-3, +3.5
Teasers 7-7, +1.1
1h 7-4, +3.5
2h 8-8, -2.1
ML 3-3, -0.15
Parlays 2-1, +2.18

Total 80-64, +19.18 units

8-8 last week and picked up one unit due to hitting my two larger plays on Alabama and FSU.

Texas -13.5 2.2/2
Ball State -17 1.1/1
Temple +1 1.1/1
Temple 2H ML -105 1.05/1
VT +4 1.1/1
Buffalo +3 -115 1.15/1
Buffalo/Akron over 61 1.1/1
Cin -3.5 1.1/1
Ohio State -9 1.1/1
Texas -7 1h 1.1/1
Penn State -20 1h 1.1/1
Georgia/Auburn over 45 1.1/1
South Carolina/Florida over 48 1.1/1
Texas A&M +8.5 1.1/1
Kentucky -3 2.2/2
Ok. State -17 1.1/1
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[RJ Esq]

Bandwagonner.

Good luck to all of us.

 

[RetroVK]

Nice to see you on this as well timh.

Brought a smile to my face in fact.

 

[cubsker]

looks good timmy. This is probably going to be my biggest play of the year.

 

[counselor]

Tim, come on. Let's get down to the real game everyone wants to know about:

Maryland +2.5 vs North Carolina

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Tim, come on. Let's get down to the real game everyone wants to know about:

Maryland +2.5 vs North Carolina

GL with the Texas play, tim. On it as well.

But yes, what's your take here? My heart is saying UNC...but my mind (and all the historical data) says the Terps as a nice home doggie.

 

[Timh]

Tim, come on. Let's get down to the real game everyone wants to know about:

Maryland +2.5 vs North Carolina

I'll have some thoughts on this game later in the week. I am still digesting how poorly MD played against VT the other night. I was extremely disappointed in that performance.

 

[Timh]

Ball State -17 1.1/1

 

[B.A.R.]

Timmay!

 

[pags11]

GL this week timh...

 

[Timh]

Temple +1 1.1/1

 

[Timh]

Temple 2H ML -105 1.05/1

 

[Timh]

A Look at the Tar Heels
Saturday’s game, like most any other ACC game, would appear to be a toss-up. North Carolina is a slight favorite, but Maryland is in a virtual must-win situation (or close to it) at home. Here are some tidbits about the resurgent Tar Heels, who have fast become contenders under Coach Butch Davis:
North Carolina is plus-16 in turnover margin in its seven wins and minus-5 in its two losses.
The Tar Heels lead the ACC with six non-offensive touchdowns. They have scored on four interception returns, one punt return and one blocked punt recovery in the end zone.
They have lost two games this season by a total of six points (20-17 to Virginia Tech and 16-13 to Virginia). Dating back to last season, their last four losses have been by a total of 12 points.
They have not committed a turnover in the last two games and have attempted 60 consecutive passes without an interception.
They have trailed in six of seven wins this season. The only time they have not trailed was in last week’s 28-7 win over No. 20 Georgia Tech. Three times this season the Tar Heels have rallied from deficits of at least 10 points.
North Carolina and Maryland are two of only six teams in the country to have three wins over top 25 teams this season. The others: Texas, Texas Tech, Alabama and Southern California.
North Carolina is tied for first nationally with Boston College in interceptions (18). The Tar Heels have intercepted at least one pass in eight of nine games this season and have had multiple interceptions in six games. They have returned a single-season school record four interceptions for touchdowns.
North Carolina is fourth nationally in turnover margin. And the Tar Heels have scored 83 points off turnovers this season, including 11 touchdowns and two field goals.
Since taking over for injured starter T.J. Yates, quarterback Cameron Sexton has led North Carolina to a 5-1 record. He has completed 80 of 138 passes for 1,064 yards and eight touchdowns. He does not qualify for ACC stats, but if he did he would be leading the conference in pass efficiency.

 

[Timh]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...R2008111202874.html?sid=ST2008111203126&s_pos=

 

[RetroVK]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...R2008111202874.html?sid=ST2008111203126&s_pos=

crazy conference right now ..lol

 

[pags11]

thanks for the article timh...sure hope you are on Maryland...

 

[bull]

good thread, and thanks for that article, Tim.
For some unexplainable reason, I've been pretty fortunate in the ACC this year, despite my continued ability to be wrong on any agme played by the local team, BC.
GL on the week-end.

 

[Timh]

thanks for the article timh...sure hope you are on Maryland...

Pags I'd love to hear your thoughts. I always try to be objective about my squad, good points and bad, but it is always nice to hear another point of view.

 

[Timh]

Bull - Would love to hear some of your other ACC thoughts including BC. I'm sure you have a good pulse on them.

 

[Timh]

No Place Like Home on Thursdays

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/12/AR2008111202775.html

 

[Timh]

Friedgen on Defensive Changes

<!-- begin category/blogger sigs --><!-- end category/blogger sigs -->I am writing about the changes on Maryland’s defensive line in Saturday’s paper (it should be on the Web on Friday). But here is some of what Ralph Friedgen said about the changes that he hopes will yield better results against the run.
Friedgen said Travis Ivey can play nose tackle, but he will be the starter at defensive tackle Saturday in place of Jeremy Navarre, who moves to starting defensive end, where he played the past three seasons. At 6-4, 325 pounds, Ivey is a big body.
“We wanted to get some bigger bodies in there to hopefully help us,” Friedgen said.
At nose tackle, Dion Armstrong (6-1, 303 pounds) will start over Bemi Otulaja (6-0, 285).
“Bemi plays very hard but sometimes he gets mismatches in there,” Friedgen said. “You have a lot of big bodies and sometimes he just gets thrown around. It is not a question of effort. It is not a question of him trying to do it. Sometimes he gets overpowered. My concern is that he will still have to play, but we will limit it to see how he is doing. If Ivey can play with the same intensity that Bemi plays with, we will be fine.”

 

[Timh]

Terps Good at Rebounding

<!-- begin category/blogger sigs --><!-- end category/blogger sigs -->Maryland may suffer setbacks from time to time, but the Terrapins are nothing if not resilient. After the last five regular season losses, dating back to last season, Maryland has answered with a victory. It is easier to beat these guys once than it is to keep them down.
“I hope that stays true,” Ralph Friedgen said. “I think we have good kids who probably respond in adverse situations. When things get going good, most people tend to relax. I don’t know. But I am glad they respond. I have said it a number of times, I like this team. I am glad they went out today and right from the get-go [played well].
“They were giving me grief about putting too much clothes on. I said I am getting old. We had a couple fights, a couple guys trash talking to each other. They had a good time out there today. I like when they have a good time. They had fun. It was not drudgery out there. Sometimes when you come off a tough loss it can be drudgery. I have tried not to make it that way.
“I am sure they feel the same way, that they want to get that taste our of their mouths. As disappointed as I was after the Virginia Tech game, we still control our own fate. We have to play smarter, more physical and better. The season is far from over. I told them Monday that we prepared 365 days to be in this position, to have a chance to win the conference championship. You win three games and you win it. But you have to win the first one. This is what we work for the whole year, to be in this position. Now is not the time to worry about it and tighten up. Now is the time to go out and play your best.”
The last time Maryland lost a second consecutive regular season game? Nov. 3, 2007, at North Carolina, 16-13.
Will the Terps lose two in a row?

 

[Timh]

VT +4 1.1/1 - I think VT offensive line played very well last week against MD and gained additonal confidence that they can run the ball effectively into this week's Miami game. Miami QB Marve has been TO prone with 10 interceptions this year and VT will show him a lot of different looks that may confuse the young QB. I actually think Miami should be playing J. Harris more as he seems to be more productive and has made less mistakes. VT has forced a lot more TO's than Miami this year and have a +10 TO ratio, while Miami only has 3 interceptions and come in at -4 in the TO ratio. VT has not been their usual self on special teams this year with a lot of notable gaffes, but KR Roberts has really made an impact the last couple of weeks and I think he could help the team tonight. I have to give VT the coaching edge with Beamer and Foster tonight and this game is critical to their having a chance to win the division as the next two games vs. Duke and Va. are at home. I'll take the points here and am tempted to have a little ML as well.

 

[Timh]

Buffalo +3 -115 1.15/1
Buffalo/Akron over 61 1.1/1

 

[E.T.G.]

lets get buffalo 2night, gl

 

[Timh]

I like Willy and Starks for Buffalo, both very nice players and think neither of these two teams can stop each other.

 

[pags11]

timh,

I'll be posting my full write-up on the game later this evening at my usual posting site, but there are a variety of reasons I like Maryland here...obviously, they are a much better home team...with that Turner seems to play better at home (I like his decision making of late), their running game is better at home, as is their run defense...I'm hoping the extra 2 or so days have helped Scott's shoulder heal some (although I know he won't be 100%)...Meggett is a nice change of pace guy and Bey should have a big game...North Carolina has benefited from some big wins at home this past month, but have shown to be somewhat vulnerable on the road...most of their drives last week were from G.T. turnovers (game was 7-0 deep into the third quarter)...just think we are getting two fairly equal, both well-coached, teams and I have the home team and the points...Tate being out hasn't hurt North Carolina so far, but I think it could a little this week...

 

[Timh]

Pags appreciate your thoughts here. I too am planning on adding some more thoughts on this game.

 

[Clyde]

BOL Timh... Always look for your insight..

 

[pags11]

not a problem timh...am anxious to read your thoughts on the game...GL the rest of the week...

 

[tee*dub]

Nice hit on Buffalo.. Starks is a beast isn't he...GL this weekend.. Hell of a record ty bro.:shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice start to the week...

GL morrow.

 

[Timh]

Secondary Concerns

<!-- begin category/blogger sigs --><!-- end category/blogger sigs -->I wrote a story about the defensive line changes, which should be put on the Web later this morning. But Ralph Friedgen suggested last night, as I posted last night, that there might be a bigger problem. Maryland could be without another cornerback if Nolan Carroll can't play because of an ankle. Friedgen said Carroll is still "gimpy." Carolina can throw the ball. Hakeem Nicks is one of the nation's best receivers. Not having Carroll would be a big concern.

 

[Timh]

My thoughts on UNC/MD....

Figured I’d pop in and provide a few thoughts on MD/UNC this weekend. First off, the weather is not going to be good. It’s raining today and expected to be 80% chance of rain tomorrow with potential T-storms but it will be a little warmer probably low 60’s. Not exactly a great day for throwing a wet ball. I was very disappointed with MD’s performance at VT and thought they were handled on the LOS on both sides of the ball. MD has a lack of quality of DLinemen and as a result have played the 3-4 this year and tried to accentuate the positives of the LB corps. Only problem against VT was that the LB’s didn’t tackle well, in fact the whole team tackled like shit. Anyway, MD defensive front is smallish only avgd. about 270 vs. VT’s 310 or 315 and they got worn down in the 4th qtr as VT dominated TOP. Ralph has made some changes this week and moved Navarre back to DE where he belongs and inserted Travis Ivey in the lineup who we need because of his bulk and also added in another interior lineman whose name escapes me right now that provides some more bulk. This was a much needed change in my opinion. MD also has basically gotten no pass rush from their downl lineman and Cosh has basically rushed 3 and sat in a zone, which is very frustrating when your facing a QB (Glennon) who has pigeon shit on his helmut. Why they didn’t load up the box and come after him early is beyond me. After we lost Barnes CB (our best man cover guy), Cosh has not trusted the DB’s to play man coverage so its been a double edged sword because we can’t generate any pass rush either. I’m still not sure that we will be able to garner any pass rush, but at least moving Navarre back to DE should help in this area and we certainly ought to be better stopping the run on the inside.
NC has been a very opportunistic defense, raking in 18 int’s and have a very solid +13 TO ratio on the season. They have done a good job of not turning it over on offense with only 11 on the season. Sexton hasn’t been spectacular by any means but efficient. Last week’s win over GT, the Heels were fortunate to be the recipient of some TO’s that set them up nicely for short field scores. They didn’t really do that much offensively. MD needs to come in and be able to limit Draugh on the ground and force Sexton into more adverse down and distance and put some pressure on him to make plays. The ground games of both teams are going to be key here because I think it will be hard to throw with the conditons and wet ball. I have not been happy with MD’s use of Bey overall this season. He is reallya great talent but only has 30 catches on the year. They need to find ways to move him around more in the formations to get some better matchups. His 65 yard WR screen play agaisnt VT was really our only offensive highlight of the game as the running game went no where. No excuse in my book with our OL to not be able to run the ball better than we did at VT and I look for improvement there this week. Hopefully D. Scott (shoulder) will be more fully healthy this week because the Terps have to be balanced on offense to be successful. MD finds themselves in a home dog role again this week and it’s role they have done well in. They play much better at home overall and I would expect them to snap back and play much better this week. That said, I still think NC may be the best overall team in the ACC. This should be a close game and I still haven’t made up my mind whether I want to play on it or not. GL this weekend!

 

[Timh]

Cin -3.5 1.1/1

 

[Timh]

Ohio State -9 1.1/1

 

[Timh]

Texas -7 1h 1.1/1

 

[Timh]

Penn State -20 1h 1.1/1

 

[Timh]

Georgia/Auburn over 45 1.1/1

 

[Timh]

South Carolina/Florida over 48 1.1/1

 

[Timh]

Texas A&M +8.5 1.1/1

 

[Timh]

Kentucky -3 2.2/2
Ok. State -17 1.1/1