Colin Wynner
Pretty much a regular
Every game list in the table below with the category to the far left. Categories - >=70% or more of the picks on the favorite = Lop-Sided; 52%-69.9% on Favorite = Favorite Majority; 50.1%-51.9% Even Action; >=50% on Dog = Public Dog
Week 12 numbers:
Entries: 1165 (Total of 6990 picks)
CFB Picks: 4224 (60.4% of the overall picks - LOW)
CFB Record so far: 1-2; 83-194 32.1%
Last week:
Top 20 picked games, lop-sided: 7-4 / 51-46 (full season)
Other Lop-sided games: 6-12 last week, 73-91-2 overall
Public Dogs: 2-3/40-42-2
College Overall: 25-33 on majority picks; overall picks 2063-2317 for a percentage of 47.10%/Season Percentage: 49.0%
Pool lines freeze at 10AM on Thursday's; picks due a 5AM MST.
One interesting trend is the top 20 lop-sided picks are faring better than lop-sided picks outside of the top 20. There is no science in the choosing to divide on the "top 20" as it is arbitrary.
One thing that stands out is UDUB as a public dog, I heard a lot of chatter this week about Oregon State and how no one likes the Huskies this week, turns out (or at least appears) that the public loves the Huskies.
Using this data to make plays today, I would go with:
Purdue -2.5 at Fanduel
Arizona -1
Miami Fla +1 -115 at BetMGM
My Pool Plays:
Army +4.5
Arizona -1
UNLV +3
Houston +7
Kansas State -8
Wisconsin -4.5 - The Huskers are trying to manage expectations for next year before smashing Iowa on Friday and returning the "Heroes Trophy" to the janitor closet.
Good luck!
Week 12 numbers:
Entries: 1165 (Total of 6990 picks)
CFB Picks: 4224 (60.4% of the overall picks - LOW)
CFB Record so far: 1-2; 83-194 32.1%
Last week:
Top 20 picked games, lop-sided: 7-4 / 51-46 (full season)
Other Lop-sided games: 6-12 last week, 73-91-2 overall
Public Dogs: 2-3/40-42-2
College Overall: 25-33 on majority picks; overall picks 2063-2317 for a percentage of 47.10%/Season Percentage: 49.0%
Pool lines freeze at 10AM on Thursday's; picks due a 5AM MST.
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | CFB Rank | NOTE |
| Washington +2.5 over Oregon State | 75 | 224 | 25.1% | 74.9% | 299 | 1 | Public Dog Lop-Sided |
| Georgia -10.5 over Tennessee | 264 | 27 | 90.7% | 9.3% | 291 | 2 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Louisville -1.5 over Miami | 187 | 56 | 77.0% | 23.0% | 243 | 3 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Utah +1 over Arizona | 84 | 120 | 41.2% | 58.8% | 204 | 4 | Public Dog |
| Michigan -19 over Maryland | 146 | 26 | 84.9% | 15.1% | 172 | 5 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| 51 | 115 | 30.7% | 69.3% | 166 | 6 | Public Dog | |
| Texas -7.5 over Iowa State | 120 | 39 | 75.5% | 24.5% | 159 | 7 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| James Madison -9 over App State | 121 | 16 | 88.3% | 11.7% | 137 | 8 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Air Force -3 over UNLV | 72 | 60 | 54.5% | 45.5% | 132 | 9 | Favorite Majority |
| Iowa -3 over Illinois | 124 | 7 | 94.7% | 5.3% | 131 | 10 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| USC -6.5 over UCLA | 80 | 27 | 74.8% | 25.2% | 107 | 11 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| North Carolina +7 over Clemson | 33 | 73 | 31.1% | 68.9% | 106 | 12 | Public Dog |
| Kansas State -8 over Kansas | 66 | 36 | 64.7% | 35.3% | 102 | 13 | Favorite Majority |
| Penn State -20.5 over Rutgers | 62 | 33 | 65.3% | 34.7% | 95 | 14 | Favorite Majority |
| Tulane -9.5 over Florida Atlantic | 84 | 9 | 90.3% | 9.7% | 93 | 15 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Navy -2.5 over East Carolina | 78 | 14 | 84.8% | 15.2% | 92 | 16 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Missouri -11 over Florida | 78 | 14 | 84.8% | 15.2% | 92 | 17 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Coastal Carolina -4.5 over Army | 56 | 34 | 62.2% | 37.8% | 90 | 18 | Favorite Majority |
| Oregon -23.5 over Arizona State | 77 | 12 | 86.5% | 13.5% | 89 | 19 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Duke -3.5 over Virginia | 67 | 20 | 77.0% | 23.0% | 87 | 20 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Northwestern +3 over Purdue | 24 | 47 | 33.8% | 66.2% | 71 | 21 | Public Dog |
| 13 | 54 | 19.4% | 80.6% | 67 | 22 | Public Dog | |
| Wyoming -13.5 over Hawai'i | 60 | 3 | 95.2% | 4.8% | 63 | 23 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| SMU -8 over Memphis | 33 | 29 | 53.2% | 46.8% | 62 | 24 | Favorite Majority |
| Liberty -27.5 over UMASS | 55 | 6 | 90.2% | 9.8% | 61 | 25 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| West Virginia -6.5 over Cincinnati | 44 | 17 | 72.1% | 27.9% | 61 | 26 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Ohio State -27.5 over Minnesota | 47 | 12 | 79.7% | 20.3% | 59 | 27 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Auburn -24 over New Mexico State | 37 | 18 | 67.3% | 32.7% | 55 | 28 | Favorite Majority |
| Wisconsin -4.5 over Nebraska | 46 | 8 | 85.2% | 14.8% | 54 | 29 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| South Carolina +1.5 over Kentucky | 24 | 27 | 47.1% | 52.9% | 51 | 30 | Public Dog |
| Texas Tech -2.5 over UCF | 33 | 17 | 66.0% | 34.0% | 50 | 31 | Favorite Majority |
| Jacksonville St -8.5 over Louisiana Tech | 46 | 1 | 97.9% | 2.1% | 47 | 32 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| UT San Antonio -16 over South Florida | 25 | 19 | 56.8% | 43.2% | 44 | 33 | Favorite Majority |
| Ole Miss -37.5 over La-Monroe | 28 | 14 | 66.7% | 33.3% | 42 | 34 | Favorite Majority |
| Oklahoma State -7 over Houston | 35 | 7 | 83.3% | 16.7% | 42 | 35 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| LSU -31.5 over Georgia State | 33 | 9 | 78.6% | 21.4% | 42 | 36 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Oklahoma -24 over BYU | 22 | 19 | 53.7% | 46.3% | 41 | 37 | Favorite Majority |
| Mississippi St -14 over Southern Miss | 35 | 4 | 89.7% | 10.3% | 39 | 38 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Indiana -4 over Michigan State | 18 | 13 | 58.1% | 41.9% | 31 | 39 | Favorite Majority |
| NC State +3 over Virginia Tech | 10 | 21 | 32.3% | 67.7% | 31 | 40 | Public Dog |
| California -6.5 over Stanford | 19 | 9 | 67.9% | 32.1% | 28 | 41 | Favorite Majority |
| Notre Dame -24.5 over Wake Forest | 17 | 10 | 63.0% | 37.0% | 27 | 42 | Favorite Majority |
| Georgia Tech -6.5 over Syracuse | 15 | 11 | 57.7% | 42.3% | 26 | 43 | Favorite Majority |
| Colorado State -11.5 over Nevada | 24 | 1 | 96.0% | 4.0% | 25 | 44 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Georgia Southern -6 over Old Dominion | 16 | 7 | 69.6% | 30.4% | 23 | 45 | Favorite Majority |
| Utah State +3.5 over Boise State | 6 | 15 | 28.6% | 71.4% | 21 | 46 | Public Dog |
| Rice -2.5 over Charlotte | 14 | 5 | 73.7% | 26.3% | 19 | 47 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| North Texas -2 over Tulsa | 14 | 5 | 73.7% | 26.3% | 19 | 48 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| San Jose State -14.5 over San Diego State | 14 | 5 | 73.7% | 26.3% | 19 | 49 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Texas State -3.5 over Arkansas State | 11 | 7 | 61.1% | 38.9% | 18 | 50 | Favorite Majority |
| TCU -13 over Baylor | 10 | 8 | 55.6% | 44.4% | 18 | 51 | Favorite Majority |
| Troy -16 over Louisiana | 13 | 4 | 76.5% | 23.5% | 17 | 52 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| FIU +29.5 over Arkansas | 5 | 8 | 38.5% | 61.5% | 13 | 53 | Public Dog |
| UAB -7 over Temple | 7 | 4 | 63.6% | 36.4% | 11 | 54 | Favorite Majority |
| Western Kentucky -13 over Sam Houston St | 7 | 4 | 63.6% | 36.4% | 11 | 55 | Favorite Majority |
| Fresno State -23 over New Mexico | 7 | 2 | 77.8% | 22.2% | 9 | 56 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Middle Tennessee -7.5 over UTEP | 6 | 2 | 75.0% | 25.0% | 8 | 57 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Ball State -12.5 over Kent State | 4 | 2 | 66.7% | 33.3% | 6 | 58 | Favorite Majority |
| South Alabama -10.5 over Marshall | 4 | 2 | 66.7% | 33.3% | 6 | 59 | Favorite Majority |
One interesting trend is the top 20 lop-sided picks are faring better than lop-sided picks outside of the top 20. There is no science in the choosing to divide on the "top 20" as it is arbitrary.
One thing that stands out is UDUB as a public dog, I heard a lot of chatter this week about Oregon State and how no one likes the Huskies this week, turns out (or at least appears) that the public loves the Huskies.
Using this data to make plays today, I would go with:
Purdue -2.5 at Fanduel
Arizona -1
Miami Fla +1 -115 at BetMGM
My Pool Plays:
Army +4.5
Arizona -1
UNLV +3
Houston +7
Kansas State -8
Wisconsin -4.5 - The Huskers are trying to manage expectations for next year before smashing Iowa on Friday and returning the "Heroes Trophy" to the janitor closet.
Good luck!
