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CFB Week 0 and 1, RSW

Timh

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Looking forward to the season, and have started working to get ready! Couple of RSW bets so far.

RSW
Wisconsin over 8.5 -138 1*
Kent State over 2.5 +107 1*
Texas A&M over 7.5 -165 1*
Air Force over 8.5 -119 1*

Week 0
299 Navy +20.5 1*
302 New Mexico State -6.5 -109 1*

Week 1
143 NCST -14 -115 1*
148 Utah -5.5 1*
Tease 167/168 Fresno St. +9.5/Under 52.5 +100 1*
175/176 ODU/VT over 47.5 1*
177/178 Ball State/KY over 48.5 1.5*
179/180 North Carolina/South Carolina over 62 -108 1*
235/236 Clem/Duke under 55 1*
 
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Wisconsin over 8.5 -138 1* - Like the upgrade at QB with Xfr Mordecai, think he will fit in well and expect improvement in the passing game overall and OL has good depth but changing to new blocking schemes. Would expect continued success with running game and Allen is very solid. Defense changing to hybrid scheme with Tressel but have good talent and especially deep at LB. Schedule sets up well with Indiana, Rutgers, OSU from the east and they get Iowa and OSU at home. Toughest road game probably at Illinois. I think 10 wins is likely for Wisconsin this season.
 
Kent State over 2.5 +107 1* - Tailing CK on this one and at plus money with the variability and wild ass things that happen in the MAC just seems like a reasonable shot. Yes Kent St. got gutted in the portal and have a new coach but they have a decent running game and Alaimo and Lewis at least give them a little experience at QB.
 
Texas A&M over 7.5 -165 1* - I think Jimbo is making a smart move bringing in Petrino to run the offense. Should really see some improvement in their play calling overall especially in the passing game. This team is strong on both LOS, and have decent returning talent at WR position. Schedule is challenging as they get Tenn, Ole Miss, LSU on road but do have 8 home games. I like their core on the LOS and think this team should be pretty diversified on offense and get their running game going as well. I like their upside this season.
 
Week 1
179/180 North Carolina/South Carolina over 62 -108 1* - Both of these secondary's are very ? and I expect SC will have to throw a lot in this one as their running game has serious depth and quality issues. North Carolina offense should be very good this season with Maye Heisman candidate, return all their RB and WR's solid and Nesbit excellent TE. NC OL is very solid with 4 st returning (137 car sts). I think SC can help the cause here as NC secondary returns only one starter and were terrible LY.
 
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I got Kent State under 3 and under 2.5 .. obvi I really like 3 lol .. I get what yer saying w the variability .. and maybe helpful the win shots they have w the FCS team early but most tend to show up end of the year .. hard to predict how motivated Akron, BG, Ball St or even N.ILL will be by year end if not in for a bowl or conf .. easy to see k Kent St is lookin at being 1-7 by that point .. their power rating is going to absolutely be deeeep in the toilet by then .. maybe the better way to get down playing ON Kent st is wait till then and take 3 straight ML's .. shouldn't be hard to find the 'variability vector' when a surprise win or two might show up ..

The one thing to like is they have a couple RB's to like and the QB room does have a few prospects, even w min exp I see Phil has some decent PS# ratings on 3 of em,.. the big problem I see w them is not just small OL but small in total numbers and in a few other spots I think DL won't be easy either they were 3-man last year and think switching to 4-man now .. so maybe short on qualified DL's.. maybe have trouble finding enough guys who weight enough they could conceivably play at least early on ..
Think that's at least something we could look at as they approach the 'winnable' stretch, maybe nothing left on the roster or the gas tank at that point .. I'd def look to hedge my RSW under in some of those late spots if I got the sense they were still hunting for wins at the end, we'll see .. Good luck!
 
Timh said:
Week 1
179/180 North Carolina/South Carolina over 62 -108 1* - Both of these secondary's are very ? and I expect SC will have to throw a lot in this one as their running game has serious depth and quality issues. North Carolina offense should be very good this season with Maye Heisman candidate, return all their RB and WR's solid and Nesbit excellent TE. NC OL is very solid with 4 st returning (137 car sts). I think SC can help the cause here as NC secondary returns only one starter and were terrible LY.
Click to expand...
I actually think our secondary will be much improved, which of course isn’t saying much given how poorly we performed last year.

Given the coaching adjustments and the player departures, I view it as addition by subtraction, plus I really think Huzzle can be a big time leader and give us some takeaways this year, while also leading by example in terms of bringing physicality whenever he is out there on the field.
 
Im too lazy to look up and no idea on returning production. But didn't scary put up 62 on Tennessee late in season LY?? Seems like potential 31 28 game at half.
 
Timh said:
Week 1
179/180 North Carolina/South Carolina over 62 -108 1* - Both of these secondary's are very ? and I expect SC will have to throw a lot in this one as their running game has serious depth and quality issues. North Carolina offense should be very good this season with Maye Heisman candidate, return all their RB and WR's solid and Nesbit excellent TE. NC OL is very solid with 4 st returning (137 car sts). I think SC can help the cause here as NC secondary returns only one starter and were terrible LY.
Click to expand...
USC also can’t stop the run. Or at least they couldn’t last year.
 
Timh said:
Kent State over 2.5 +107 1* - Tailing CK on this one and at plus money with the variability and wild ass things that happen in the MAC just seems like a reasonable shot. Yes Kent St. got gutted in the portal and have a new coach but they have a decent running game and Alaimo and Lewis at least give them a little experience at QB.
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Kent is going to be horrific this year. They have no starters back on offense and I just wonder what they have at QB/WR with basically one guy whose caught passes back and complete retreads in the pocket. I do agree with you that their RB room is decent. I get the variability argument and they could win 3–the Nov. part of the schedule is their best chance—but I can’t bet it with all the question marks.
Good luck this year brother.
 
M.W. said:
USC also can’t stop the run. Or at least they couldn’t last year.
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Their defense doesn't look too good on paper this year overall. I am scripting them to be in a lot of high scoring games, due to being behind and having to throw and also generally considering lack of running game. SC high points seem to be the qb play and special teams.
 
Tim--How have you factored the new running clock rule on first downs into your totals picks like the NC-SC game?
 
vegasvice said:
Tim--How have you factored the new running clock rule on first downs into your totals picks like the NC-SC game?
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So funny you asked that? I was just thinking the last couple days that I needed to check out the rule changes. Honestly have not considered it but thanks for reminding me. Need to look at it, in terms of total plays for sure.
 
I fooled around with some numbers from Team Rankings based on 2022 data.

Texas Tech ran the highest number of plays/game 89.2 and averaged 30.14 minutes TOP so they ran a play every 20 seconds.

Army ran 64.7 plays/gm at 31:55 TOP so in contrast ran a play every 29 seconds.

The running clock after first downs is expected to shave off several minutes of the game in an attempt to shorten and speed up.

So for example if we said 3 minutes were shaved and we used an avg of 25 seconds/play this would result in 7 less plays in entire game.
 
I think teams will move to chew clock earlier in the 4th quarter also, so when traditionally teams would run "4 minute offense" to chew clock, you will start seeing that with 7-8 minutes left int he 4th, and like NFL, teams will bury the clock and could shorten the chances for late 4th quarter scoring...especially in blowouts, you might not get that final knock out TD...
 
steponaduck said:
I think teams will move to chew clock earlier in the 4th quarter also, so when traditionally teams would run "4 minute offense" to chew clock, you will start seeing that with 7-8 minutes left int he 4th, and like NFL, teams will bury the clock and could shorten the chances for late 4th quarter scoring...especially in blowouts, you might not get that final knock out TD...
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Yup.

The crazy 4th quarters will be muted a bit with this change.

There is so much to factor in here...

Totals
TT's
2H totals and TT's
Big spreads
 
steponaduck said:
I think teams will move to chew clock earlier in the 4th quarter also, so when traditionally teams would run "4 minute offense" to chew clock, you will start seeing that with 7-8 minutes left int he 4th, and like NFL, teams will bury the clock and could shorten the chances for late 4th quarter scoring...especially in blowouts, you might not get that final knock out TD...
Click to expand...
It’s only a five-second difference on each first down, although it may be a bit more than that on late-game desperation drives. It shouldn’t push the start of the “four-minute offense” back more than 30-45 seconds.
 
M.W. said:
It’s only a five-second difference on each first down, although it may be a bit more than that on late-game desperation drives. It shouldn’t push the start of the “four-minute offense” back more than 30-45 seconds.
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not really...it really depends on each referee and how fast their crew spots the ball and stops the clock, but more like 10-12 seconds honestly...

the clock will be noticeably quicker.
 
steponaduck said:
not really...it really depends on each referee and how fast their crew spots the ball and stops the clock, but more like 10-12 seconds honestly...

the clock will be noticeably quicker.
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Go back and watch games. Just watched first 22 minutes of Clemson-UNC from last year. It was 1 to 7 seconds to start clock after each first down.
 
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Air Force over 8.5 -119 1* - Have led FBS in rushing 3 straight years and return a quality offensive line and figure to be able to run the ball very effectively despite loss of Roberts. Their defense is very experienced and they are moving to more of a 4-2-5 but front 6 should provide good pass rush and defensive backfield returns 4 starters. AF very solid at home and get SDST and Wyo at home with toughest road game at Boise St. I think 10 wins very reasonable expectation for this team.
 
Timh said:
Wisconsin over 8.5 -138 1* - Like the upgrade at QB with Xfr Mordecai, think he will fit in well and expect improvement in the passing game overall and OL has good depth but changing to new blocking schemes. Would expect continued success with running game and Allen is very solid. Defense changing to hybrid scheme with Tressel but have good talent and especially deep at LB. Schedule sets up well with Indiana, Rutgers, OSU from the east and they get Iowa and OSU at home. Toughest road game probably at Illinois. I think 10 wins is likely for Wisconsin this season.
Click to expand...

Can’t see why they won’t win their side of the big10? Need to get it done now before big10 drastically changes next year!
 
143 NCST -14 -115 1* - QB Armstrong and OC Annae reunite and Pack faithful are hoping that will be a combination that really gels this year. Annae has a terrific resume as an OC and apparently has Doeren's full backing to open it up this year for the Pack. UConn likely to have trouble running the ball vs. the Pack defense and their track record against P5 teams is not too good.
 
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