CFB W10

BiffTFinancial

BiffTFinancial

Local Heat Tracker
4-8-1 -10.15u W9
65-58-2 -6.05u YTD

Week 10
3* Indiana 1H (2* -11’ (-105); 1* -16’ (+157))
2* Virginia Tech +11
2* Oklahoma/Tennessee over 57
1* Penn State TT under 12’ (+105)
1* Vandy/Texas under 45
1* Vandy/Texas 1H under 22 (-105)
1* WVU/Houston under 49’
1* Navy TT over 30’ (+105)
1* UAB/UConn over 64 (-105)
1* ECU/Temple over 58’ (-105)
1* Florida 1Q +2’ (-105)
1* Minnesota -3 (-115)
1* Wake Forest +10’ (-112)
1* NC State +5’

BOL to all this weekend!
 
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My numbers really like overs in Navy/N Texas and TT/K State but going to need to think about both. The reason for liking Navy overs is obvious, but at the same time, their pace is concerning if the game plays out in a way where they are protecting a 2H lead as I'm not sure NT run D can get them off the field. With TT/KSU, K State O has looked a lot better of late but those games were vs KU, TCU, Baylor and UCF - not sure how many guys on those 4 starting Ds would start for TT's D which has some pretty dominant performances (only ASU at ASU scored more than 17 this season).
 
BiffTFinancial said:
My numbers really like overs in Navy/N Texas and TT/K State but going to need to think about both. The reason for liking Navy overs is obvious, but at the same time, their pace is concerning if the game plays out in a way where they are protecting a 2H lead as I'm not sure NT run D can get them off the field. With TT/KSU, K State O has looked a lot better of late but those games were vs KU, TCU, Baylor and UCF - not sure how many guys on those 4 starting Ds would start for TT's D which has some pretty dominant performances (only ASU at ASU scored more than 17 this season).
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The North Texas - Army game last November is still stuck in my head.

41-19 t.o.p. for Army.

We talked about this a month ago when they played again.

14-3 final that day.

They did rectify things with a 45-38 affair this year but that TYPE of game, with multiple 9+ min drives always scares the bejeebus out of me with regard to totals.
 
B.A.R. said:
The North Texas - Army game last November is still stuck in my head.

41-19 t.o.p. for Army.

We talked about this a month ago when they played again.

14-3 final that day.

They did rectify things with a 45-38 affair this year but that TYPE of game, with multiple 9+ min drives always scares the bejeebus out of me with regard to totals.
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Especially with totals in the 60s. If you figure you need about 17 a quarter, a couple of 8-10 minute drives alone can kill it, and I can't imagine Navy isn't thinking about using ball control to keep possession away from the explosive NT O vs their own flawed D. Every play starts with trying to figure out my margin/edge vs the line, then playing devil's advocate as to why the play might not work out. I get a similar edge to similar total for both Navy/NT over and UAB/UConn over, but the ball control dynamic clearly makes the UAB/UConn over preferrable to the Navy one.
 
Given how poorly my larger plays have been this season, going to make myself provide a bit of a writeup:
- Terps have lost 11 straight regular season games after a bye (2-9 ATS in those). So, any notion that Terps being off the bye is a big advantage is off base.
- Maryland FS Jalen Huskey ejected for targeting in 2H vs UCLA means he’s out 1H vs IU. He is EASILY their highest rated defender on PFF (89.2; only 2 other players above 80 are 84.5 (their green dot LB) and 81.4 (CB)), safe to say he’s their most important player on D.
- IU was outstanding 1H last year (9-3-1), and after dropping the first 2 1Hs this season to ODU and Kennessaw, IU has been more dominant in the first frame, going 4-2 1H with covers by at least 7 in the 4 Ws; 2L were to Iowa and MSU (Iowa is a tougher matchup in general with their D, while MSU was the game after the Oregon upset so perhaps understandable that IU didn't start as focused as usual). In general, the Hoosiers start off really focused and pressing the advantages they have in the 1H as Cig loves to play from ahead.
- Maryland's D is solid, definitely better than expected this year. Surprisingly, compared to prior Terp teams, the O doesn't have a lot of teeth this year and it's difficult to see how they move the ball (or even keep possession) vs the IU defense. Where the Maryland D is strong (OPP YPP, YPC, YPA, 3rd down%, pressure rate), IU's O is even better, and IU's D has been elite thusfar. Maryland does a great job of protecting Washington (4th in Pass Block rate) whose future is bright but with the relative lack of weapons that he has, I don't think the 1H on Saturday is so bright for him.
 
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BiffTFinancial said:
Given how poorly my larger plays have been this season, going to make myself provide a bit of a writeup:
- Terps have lost 11 straight regular season games after a bye (2-9 ATS in those). So, any notion that Terps being off the bye is a big advantage is off base.
- Maryland FS Jalen Huskey ejected for targeting in 2H vs UCLA means he’s out 1H vs IU. He is EASILY their highest rated defender on PFF (89.2; only 2 other players above 80 are 84.5 (their green dot LB) and 81.4 (CB)), safe to say he’s their most important player on D.
- IU was outstanding 1H last year (9-3-1), and after dropping the first 2 1Hs this season to ODU and Kennessaw, IU has been more dominant in the first frame, going 4-2 1H with covers by at least 7 in the 4 Ws; 2L were to Iowa and MSU (Iowa is a tougher matchup in general with their D, while MSU was the game after the Oregon upset so perhaps understandable that IU didn't start as focused as usual). In general, the Hoosiers start off really focused and pressing the advantages they have in the 1H as Cig loves to play from ahead.
- Maryland's D is solid, definitely better than expected this year. Surprisingly, compared to prior Terp teams, the O doesn't have a lot of teeth this year and it's difficult to see how they move the ball (or even keep possession) vs the IU defense. Where the Maryland D is strong (OPP YPP, YPC, YPA, 3rd down%, pressure rate), IU's O is even better, and IU's D has been elite thusfar. Maryland does a great job of protecting Washington (4th in Pass Block rate) whose future is bright but with the relative lack of weapons that he has, I don't think the 1H on Saturday is so bright for him.
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Of concern for MD is establishing the running game and maintaining reasonable balance in play calling. I think when they become one dimensional and lack the threat of being able to run the ball consistently, it creates a real problem for them with additional pressure being put on the young QB M. Washington. Washington also is not really a running threat either. Agree w your take on their defense. They have played extremely well, especially in the back 7.
 
Thanks for that, Timh - always appreciate your thoughts on the Terps! I think they will struggle to establish the run vs IU based solely on numbers (per PFF, Terps 135th nationally in Run Blocking while IU is 13th in Run D). I really like the Cig press conference this week, pumping up Terps in an effort put some more shine on the result assuming they win and continuing the charm offense for Mendoza Heisman and IU in the rankings - feels like another game when IU looks to come out with shock and awe and play from ahead (hopefully, way ahead for my wager if not your Terps).
 
2* Virginia Tech +11
1* Penn State TT under 12’ (+105)
1* Florida 1Q +2’ (-105)
1* Wake Forest +10’ (-112)
1* NC State +5’

I guess it's ACC home dog week. With UGA/UF, plan is to take Florida 1Q then get UGA live at some point 2Q - UGA's quarter splits (from 1Q to others) are so stark and Bobo really struggles in the scripted portion of the game. Also, listening Billy Gonzalez's presser, I think the Gator O looks a lot different than prior coming out. Kirby will adjust, he's the best at that, but I think 1Q skews to UF.
 
Week 10
3* Indiana 1H (2* -11’ (-105); 1* -16’ (+157))
2* Virginia Tech +11
2* Oklahoma/Tennessee over 57
1* Penn State TT under 12’ (+105)
1* Vandy/Texas under 45
1* Vandy/Texas 1H under 22 (-105)
1* WVU/Houston under 49’
1* Navy TT over 30’ (+105)
1* UAB/UConn over 64 (-105)
1* ECU/Temple over 58’ (-105)
1* Florida 1Q +2’ (-105)
1* Minnesota -3 (-115)
1* Wake Forest +10’ (-112)
1* NC State +5’

5-8-1 -1.05u

70-66-3 -7.1u YTD

Honestly, after starting the day 0-6, this was a better result than deserved. Some bad fortune on the PSU TT with the OSU TO late 1H getting PSU a second TD and I'm still not sure how VT didn't cover, but I was pretty fortunate to get the OU/UT over (and at a bad number) so I can't complain about bad luck. Playing UGA's opponent 1Q/1H then UGA live remains a solid strategy, and Indiana remains a wagon. If IU and Ohio State ultimately meet in the B1G title game, OSU can expect a much more difficult time than last season, I think.
 
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