some reasoning
Iowa State: KU off huge upset of Sooners now has to go on the road, where they're not nearly as good - and in Ames, where the Cyclones are solid and also in good form. The line says it all. KU's offense is strong, but ISU's defense is too, and the gap between the two isn't nearly as large as the gap between ISU's offense and KU's suspect defense, particularly on the road.
Terps: Really tough spot for Penn State (off OSU loss then narrow escape vs Indiana, with UM next week), and a really big number to cover for an offense that has no explosiveness right now (partly due to personnel, partly due to play-calling). Maryland can't be feeling great about themselves right now either (losing to OSU one thing, but Illinois and then Northwestern is pretty inexcusable), but they have an offense with weapons and perhaps more important, some pretty solid defensive numbers (33rd in YPP, 17th in YPC, 27th in 3rd down%). Terps will get 20+ and PSU won't get to 30 so +9 sounds great.
Arkansas/Florida over: Arky fired Dan Enos during their bye and will dropping a big chunk of their playbook. The net result is expected to be much quicker tempo reminiscent of the Briles era and quicker reads for KJJ, who will also have Rocket Sanders back this week. On the other side, UF's passing attack is much better than anyone would've expected with Graham Mertz involved, and that's good because that's where Arky's defense is vulnerable (116th in YPA).
Iowa/NU 1H under: Playing games at venues like Wrigley is cool and all, but the surface often isn't ideal at all (putting grass down on infield) and the conditions are really hard to predict for teams, often having to switch cleats and otherwise using the 1H to feel things out (who could forget when Illinois and Northwesterns played there in 2010 and could only play offense going one direction?). Also, both of these offenses are, as my younger son would say, "dog water." Iowa isn't in the top 100 in any meaningful offensive stat and NU is only slightly better.
Bama TT: LSU will be without Mingo up front and their defensive backfield has been decimated by injuries and ineptitude (the latter now being new news). So, they can be had - again, not breaking anything new there. The question is, how many points does Bama have to score to control the game, and given how prolific LSU's offense has been, it's safe to say that Saban can't feel comfortable with scoring in the 20’s, and I don’t think LSU can stop them from hanging 5 or 6 scores
