CFB ML Dogs week 12
- Thread starter redbearde
- Start date
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
I've slowed down a lot in CFB...NBA takes up a lot of time each day now, and if I can't spend the time, then I don't want to waste my money on my wagering stupidity. Nonetheless, I actually did well in ML dogs last week - coulda been better of course, and my spread plays all sucked ass. But the MLs actually made for a good week between CFB and NBA....at least on Saturday.
I'm not even going to mention games I don't like tho...
which pretty much means nothing until Nevada on Friday.
Colt is probably fine (cleared to play and wants to play), but Nevada's been scoring well...even on Boise St. And there's no reason in my mind to think Hawaii will stop Nevada better than the Blue Turf boys.
first and foremost, the home team has won the last 7 straight, and Hawaii's struggles on the mainland have continued this year. Specifically, Louisiana Tech and San Jose St gave them ALL they could handle.
and don't forget, this is a slightly short week...like they had before the SJSU game.
also, I think, there's a significant coaching advantage for Reno, and if there's any semblance of cold weather, the Bows won't be quite ready for that.
Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
Wolf Pack are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games.
Wolf Pack are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
there are, of course, contrary trends, too.
but if I can get closer to 3:1 than 2.5:1, and I just might right before the game, then I'll probably do this one. Go Reno.
I'm not even going to mention games I don't like tho...
which pretty much means nothing until Nevada on Friday.
Colt is probably fine (cleared to play and wants to play), but Nevada's been scoring well...even on Boise St. And there's no reason in my mind to think Hawaii will stop Nevada better than the Blue Turf boys.
first and foremost, the home team has won the last 7 straight, and Hawaii's struggles on the mainland have continued this year. Specifically, Louisiana Tech and San Jose St gave them ALL they could handle.
and don't forget, this is a slightly short week...like they had before the SJSU game.
also, I think, there's a significant coaching advantage for Reno, and if there's any semblance of cold weather, the Bows won't be quite ready for that.
Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
Wolf Pack are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games.
Wolf Pack are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
there are, of course, contrary trends, too.
but if I can get closer to 3:1 than 2.5:1, and I just might right before the game, then I'll probably do this one. Go Reno.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
tOSU @ Michigan......I don't see a line. tOSU will be favored. Not sure I want to put money on the Wolverines again. I am sure I want the fuckeyes/wolverines to be a tad less drunk this year than this week last year.......
Pitt @ Rutgers - I have to consider it, but unless wannstadt had a heart attack this week, then I don't want bother with shitt...I mean Pitt.
Kent @ Temple - shit. Temple is pk. Might HAVE to play that......go Owls.
Northwestern @ Illinois - letdown, NW is dangerous, and 2 TDs is a joke. I don't believe Juice can have 2 extremely quality games in a row. I should get a good number for NW.
Florida Atl @ Florida - FAU needs to be mentioned because of value, but you can forget it. I do think they'll cover. probly not by a whole lot. call it.....49-21.
Georgia Southern @ Colorado St - the Rams better have this one circled. It's their best spot for a possible win.
Duke @ Notre Dame - someone tell me why Notre Dame is favored. I'm not sure Duke would beat Air Force, but it would be a lot closer than Notre Dame managed... So Duke will be a play.
Monroe @ Abalama - that's funny...
Central Florida @ SMU - if you haven't heard, the Willis bandwagon has fallen under the strain of broken instruments. There's no chance in hell they stop Smith. At all. UCF by 35.
shit. more spread play....
UAB @ Memphis - look, I know UAB is bad, but daaamn. -DD for memphis? What a joke...if there are several C-USA games, I might just take the dogs under the MAC principle.
NCSU @ Wake Forest - should be a close tough game for the wolfpack....providing of course that the NCSU defense keeps playing well. Again, 2.5:1 would be better than 2:1....more would be more fair.
New Mexico @ Utah....fuck me. I want to lay more chalk......Utah by 21+....
....that's really it that I like....it might change. number dependent, of course.
Pitt @ Rutgers - I have to consider it, but unless wannstadt had a heart attack this week, then I don't want bother with shitt...I mean Pitt.
Kent @ Temple - shit. Temple is pk. Might HAVE to play that......go Owls.
Northwestern @ Illinois - letdown, NW is dangerous, and 2 TDs is a joke. I don't believe Juice can have 2 extremely quality games in a row. I should get a good number for NW.
Florida Atl @ Florida - FAU needs to be mentioned because of value, but you can forget it. I do think they'll cover. probly not by a whole lot. call it.....49-21.
Georgia Southern @ Colorado St - the Rams better have this one circled. It's their best spot for a possible win.
Duke @ Notre Dame - someone tell me why Notre Dame is favored. I'm not sure Duke would beat Air Force, but it would be a lot closer than Notre Dame managed... So Duke will be a play.
Monroe @ Abalama - that's funny...
Central Florida @ SMU - if you haven't heard, the Willis bandwagon has fallen under the strain of broken instruments. There's no chance in hell they stop Smith. At all. UCF by 35.
shit. more spread play....
UAB @ Memphis - look, I know UAB is bad, but daaamn. -DD for memphis? What a joke...if there are several C-USA games, I might just take the dogs under the MAC principle.
NCSU @ Wake Forest - should be a close tough game for the wolfpack....providing of course that the NCSU defense keeps playing well. Again, 2.5:1 would be better than 2:1....more would be more fair.
New Mexico @ Utah....fuck me. I want to lay more chalk......Utah by 21+....
....that's really it that I like....it might change. number dependent, of course.
BetTheRent$
Pretty much a regular
I e-mailed Todd@ttlsports.com and told him that he sucks and that you told me to say so!
Wolfpack17
Treasurer of Fondy Fanclub
Good luck this weekend Red and lets go PACK!
JPicks
Pretty much a regular
Red--Not sure if you're interested in any more plays but the MWC is ripe with ML dogs this weekend imo. Very tricky week to play from a spread stand point, but as a ML dog player there is lots to like.
Utah and Byu play next weeknd in what is always a HUGE rivalry game. Both teams could definitely have big letdowns this week leading up to the game. I'm on the Utah spread at -14, but I think I'll be getting out of it at 14'. Couple things to note:
NMU has won 5 of 7 from Utah including 3 of 4. Only year that Utah beat them was during the Fiesta Bowl run. The Lobos have also won 2 straight in SLC. NMU also has not secured a bowl bid and they have plenty of motivation to win this one.
WYO has got to be a litle pissed. I've seen this line move from 11' to 10 this week and I certainly wouldn't fall out of my chair if the Cowboys pulled a big upset here. They have the defesne, barring massive turnovers, to shut down the BYU offense. Max Hall hasn't been great all year on the road and this could be another spot he struggles against a good D.
Also think SDSU has a chance, but Aztec has tempered my love for SDSU this week.
Just my .02.
Utah and Byu play next weeknd in what is always a HUGE rivalry game. Both teams could definitely have big letdowns this week leading up to the game. I'm on the Utah spread at -14, but I think I'll be getting out of it at 14'. Couple things to note:
NMU has won 5 of 7 from Utah including 3 of 4. Only year that Utah beat them was during the Fiesta Bowl run. The Lobos have also won 2 straight in SLC. NMU also has not secured a bowl bid and they have plenty of motivation to win this one.
WYO has got to be a litle pissed. I've seen this line move from 11' to 10 this week and I certainly wouldn't fall out of my chair if the Cowboys pulled a big upset here. They have the defesne, barring massive turnovers, to shut down the BYU offense. Max Hall hasn't been great all year on the road and this could be another spot he struggles against a good D.
Also think SDSU has a chance, but Aztec has tempered my love for SDSU this week.
Just my .02.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
I couldn't back Wyoming against BYU, anyway....but thanks for the suggestion.
I have an offer up for Duke. If someone wants Notre Dame -248, go get it.
NorthWestern +462.56
do note...NW has won the last 4 matches SU.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Illinois.
I have an offer up for Duke. If someone wants Notre Dame -248, go get it.
NorthWestern +462.56
do note...NW has won the last 4 matches SU.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Illinois.
