CFB ML dogs Week 11

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 31-57, 35.23%, +11.06 units

Bad weeks happen. It will not happen often that every damn huge favorite in the MAC wins...and most cover. God, that was brutal. Anyway. All the balls bounced against me last time...we'll see about bouncing my way this time. I had to drive today, and my gramma's going to be interred in Arlington on Tuesday, so I dunno how much time I'll have over the next couple days, but I'll try to get some thoughts in...

plays:
Central Michigan -3 (even) - P
WVU 2H -7 (-125) - L
Kent st -3.5 (-110)
Michigan -2.5 (-110)
Michigan St +162.68
Northwestern +125.44
Florida St +235.2
Connecticut +225.4
Rice +203.84

Tuesday

Central Michigan @ Western Michigan

The thing about the directional schools this year.......aside from the the Chips, they suck. I actually thought very little of CMU early in the year...they weren't playing defense, and the offense wasn't getting anything done. they weren't pass or run blocking worth a shit, and they weren't scoring and were getting scored upon...Losing big to Kansas and Purdue wasn't shameful...but North Dakota St?

Anyway, the Chips have massively improved, and they've beaten every MAC opponent. No reason to think that'll stop. Chips defense is ranked very badly, but again, giving up 70 to Clemson, 52 to Kansas, and 45 to purdue skews the numbers quite a bit. Take out those, and the Chips give up 29.7ppg...including the NDSU loss (and I think that's an outlier), and that would be 81st instead of 114th...a bit better, at any rate.

And including those tough games where the Chips got shelled, they rank 29th in the NCAA in total yards, 30th in passing yards, and 36th in points scored.

Western Michigan, otoh, has a 92nd ranked defense, a 72nd ranked offense, and they couldn't beat their meat with Lois Lane's naked ass directly in font of them.

WMU has 3 wins...one of which was just barely getting by Northern Illinois 17-13. They did win at Toledo (their year's greatest V I'm sure), and they beat Central Connecticut. Good job!

What confuses me is why the blazes is this line only 3...

Some notes of interest...

WMU is 1-7 ATS.
WMU is 0-3 ATS at home.
CMU is 3-0 ATS at home.

oh yeah, and the Chips are just plain fucking better than the broncos.

:smiley_acbe:

well, I wasn't sure I'd do it, and then I got even money at theGreek, and wtf...I took it.

Central Michigan -3 (even)
 
Wednesday

Ohio, fuck you. Akron, fuck you. You can both lick my runny asshole. No value here. I would lean toward the chalk, I guess, but I still think a man has to be a fucking moron to lay chalk in the MAC.......much. The Chips are different, of course. Unless I lose the bet. Then they can join Akron and Ohio at my runny asshole.

Thursday

Louisville @ West Virginia

I'm sure Troy Stacks will agree with me...the Mountaineers are going to rip the cards to shreds. I see essentially no chance of a Louisville win, and with that defense, you can't offer me enough to take them.

Texas Christian @ Brigham Young

It's the Killa's Favorite Religions Bowl! I dunno if TCU can score on BYU's defense, and I dunno if TCU can stop BYU's offense......dunno if 2.5:1 is worth while...looks like I might take Thursday off.

Friday

Bowling Green, see Ohio above.
Eastern Michigan, see Akron above.

Rutgers @ Army - oh good for Rutgers; they can get a win. Trimble is impressive; the rest of Army, not so much.
 
Indiana @ Northwestern - no value

Michigan St @ Purdue - now, this is interesting. +4 might give me some good value here........I don't think this is the Sparty of old who meltsdown and sucks ass for the rest of the year. I think MSU has a good shot at winning this one - doubtful purdue can stop that running game.

Virginia @ Miami, FL - oh, how the mighty have fallen. I want 2:1. I won't get it.

Wake Forest @ Clemson - Clemson's been plowing through everyone, and I'm not sure WF is up to the challenge of stopping that run game.

Penn St @ Temple - methinks I cannot back the owls this week...hahahah...

GT @ Duke - no.

South Florida @ Syracuse - no.

Kentucky @ Vanderbilt - if anything, I think Kentucky is awful short at -3.5...

Connecticut @ Cincinnati - Gotta wait for the obligatory Husky/Uconn lovers and haters thread...

Colorado @ Iowa St - I still refuse to back the cyclones.

Air Force @ Notre Dame - if anything, I'll be backing the Falcons. Notre Dame was officially a joke before. Now everyone's laughing at the joke.....as well they should.

Colorado St @ New Mexico - not sure UNM should be almost DD faves, and undoubtedly they will be before long, but I just can't put money on CSU to win...

Boise St @ Utah St -
an_roll_laugh.gif


I'm tired now. more later this week...
 
Red just out of curiosity, what kind of ML do you think UConn will be getting?

Love, Uconn Lover #3
 
i dunno....against that team it ought to be at the higher edge of +5, so 2:1...but with the way they're shorting the ML dogs, I'd expect to see something like 165...
 
What confuses me is why the blazes is this line only 3...

Because it is the MAC.
 
HUNTDOG said:
What confuses me is why the blazes is this line only 3...

Because it is the MAC.
Click to expand...
And its a rivalry game

New Mexico opened 11.5 and went to 9.5

Flyboys already got pushd up 2.5 points

Sparty with two crushing losses in a row. This will show us if this is typical Sparty or if dantoni has made his imprint. They simply celbrated way to early yesterday.
 
redbearde said:
Air Force @ Notre Dame - if anything, I'll be backing the Falcons. Notre Dame was officially a joke before. Now everyone's laughing at the joke.....as well they should.
quote]

....even the fans are laughing now....

GOD I want Charlies head!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...
 
Somethings to think about . . . First game ever nationaly televised at Western M. The weather is supposed to be shitty as all hell. And the home team has won in this series the last 5 years I believe. Central is a better team, but in no way is it because they are more talented. Western has some athletes and barring a turnover fest I think Western can pull this one out by running the ball and stopping the run on D. Who knows though, I hate those Central fucks . . . :).
 
fwiw, UCLA might be worth a look. I'm hoping the line gets up to 8 or 9 by the end of the week which might be enough value.

The reason is Osaar Rashaan. He came into the game in the second half vs. Zona down 34-14 and nearly pulled off the comeback, but failed mount a drive on the Bruins final possession as they went 4 and out and lost 34-27.

He's not very accurate on the short stuff, but he's got a cannon and is clearly the best offensive playmaker on the team with the ball in his hands. He ran circles around Arizona defenders. One play illustrated how much Zona defenders feared him........off playaction, he rolled slightly to his right. Two defenders were waiting for him. They were within 5 yards but neither went after him out of fear that he might break contain. There was a 2 or 3 second standoff where neither Ossaar or the defenders made a move, but when he finally realized they weren't coming him he fired off a 25 yard bullet to a receiver running a corner route to the right sideline.

He's a terrible short yardage passer, but throws a fairly accurate deep ball.

Once word gets out that Cowan is out, the public should pound ASU (according to sportsinsights, they already are as 92% is on ASU). The thing is, with Cowan at about 50% mobility, Ossaar gives UCLA the best chance to win.

Also, UCLA did a pretty good job vs. ASU's offense last season and seems to matchup well with that offense. At least they did last season. Obviously its a new system, but the same players.


UCLA is a much better team at home. But after losing to Zona, the season is pretty much officially over (unless they sweep ASU, Oregon and sc :36_11_6:) so its going to be interesting to see what they come out like - a team trying to become bowl eligible or a team resigned to the fact that the season is a complete and total bust and a head coach that is a month away from being fired (:prayer)
 
JimmyHoffa said:
Red: Thanks for the heads up write up. W. Michigan is awful. Central Michigan -3 (2 units).
Click to expand...

heh, don't thank me til the game's over...

Huntdog, they can't just say the "wrong" thing will happen cus it's the MAC...last week, for example...

BAR, yeah, we should learn something about Sparty's resilience under the new coach...

Budhachi, I can only imagine what that must be like...my wolfpack still manages to beat App St. Ask the Michigan boys for their grief counselors' phone numbers.

Magil, thanks for the thoughts, bro. Up until this year I've had the exact same opinion of WMU's kids...especially on defense. This year...I dunno what happened, but they just aren't playing well. I'm wondering about the lingering effects mentally of the Akron loss, too...that had to hurt.

Pags, always good to hear from you, bro, and to know we're on the same side.

Sportjunky, it would be extreeeemely optimistic to be betting the Bruins, bro...keep me updated on your boys tho, please.
 
Wyoming @ Utah - -14 is more like it. I think that's a good line. No play for me.

Arizona St @ UCLA - .......I'll look in on Bjorks, but I gotta believe the Sun Devils will absolute rape the bruins...might play the chalk here.

Abalama @ Mississippi St - 4.5 is not enough, I think. I wish the line was higher, and then I'd take MSU. I'd want more than 2:1, tho, and I won't get that.

Arkansas @ Tennessee - boy was I wrong about South Carolina last week...expect Bob will be on Arky again. We'll see.

Auburn @ UGA - Like Auburn here. A lot. no ML value tho.

Stanford @ Washington St - oh, I don't think so. Wazzou should run it all over them.

Kansas St @ Nebraska - well, at least they're dogged by more than a TD, now. I think this one's a pretty good line, but I also think K State will win by DD.

Minnesota @ Iowa - oh look! Shitfest 07! What a joke of a matchup. I hope minny wins.

TAMU @ Mizzou - the aggies couldn't defeat the local knitting group. fuck them. and fuck fresno for losing to them.

Michigan @ Wisconsin - is Wisky playing defense yet? No? didn't think so.

Illinois @ Ohio St - Is Ohio State still playing defense? Yes? Thought so...Juice will have to pass in this game. That'll make for an entertaining day for the buckeyes' secondary...

Florida St @ VPI - almost a certain ML play here....It ought to be a tough defensive battle, but if Weatherford can play half as well as he did against BC, then that should give the Noles plenty of chances to win this game.

New Mexico St @ San Jose St - Now that's a fuckin interesting line...if the WRs for NMSU can keep catching the ball, then this should be a fun game that goes down to the wire....might have to play the ML here.

Kent st @ Northern Illinois - didn't think we'd see another line this short for NIU. Definite play for me on Kent...

Kent St -3.5 (-110)
 
East Carolina @ Marshall - no play on marshall, that's for damned sure...

Memphis @ Southern Miss - still hating memphis here...

Boston College @ Maryland - I guess I'll look for some thoughts by Timh or some other terp, but at first glance, I like the looks of BC here. Probably no play.

Texas Tech @ Texas - no play for me.

Baylor @ Oklahoma - 38 is an awful damned lot...but I think okie might just do it. so, obviously a no play for me.

North Carolina @ NC State - honestly, I really thought UNC was a shoe in last month, but after the last 3 weeks of NCSU wins........the pack might just do this........not sure I'll bother with the -3.5, but I sure won't play the UNC ML...

Kansas @ Oklahomo St - OVER...? what's a good number...80?

UTEP @ Tulane - who cares. I want 2:1 before I even think about it.

Florida @ South Carolina - can the gamecocks get a win....hmmmmmmm....

Central FL @ UAB - 21 strikes me as more than reasonable...

Louisiana Tech @ LSU - why is this game played now? come on...

Southern Cal @ Cal - not enough value.

SDSU @ UNLV - -2.5...? well, okay.

Fresno St @ Hawaii - HG could help here. Waiting for his thread...

ULL @ MTSU - 14 is a lot, but I just don't see ULL winning.

Navy @ NT - don't talk about Navy's bad defense until you know about the mean green's shitass defense...

Arky ST @ FAU - not sure what happened to the indians, but this line strikes me as a tad high.
 
redbearde said:
Wednesday

Ohio, fuck you. Akron, fuck you. You can both lick my runny asshole. No value here. I would lean toward the chalk, I guess, but I still think a man has to be a fucking moron to lay chalk in the MAC.......much. The Chips are different, of course. Unless I lose the bet. Then they can join Akron and Ohio at my runny asshole.
Click to expand...

:new_shocked::new_shocked::new_shocked::drink:
 
if you can find a price on northwestern it might be worth a look, RED. Indiana is 2-21 straight up in their last 23 conference road games and have not won in Evanston since 1993.

Think TCU might be worth a look on thursday too. That defense can keep you in a ballgame.

anyways , gl this week RED and grats on the C mich win !
 
CMU won by 3. As it *should* be for how CFB has treated me for about a week, now, it was a fuckin push...even though my team was up 10 with about 6 minutes to go. I never woulda thought either of those teams could score 24 in a quarter...much less both of them. My buddy macdamn had the under in that one. ....fuckin hated that for him.

For tonight, no play on TCU - 2.5:1 might be worth it...maybe.......and it ain't even there. phooey.

I still think WVU kicks all holy shit out of Louisville, but I'm not betting the fullgame. I'm currently thinking in terms of a possible 2H wager, so I hope Louisville comes up strong in the first half. Hell, even if WVU is worlds ahead, and they're actually giving points to the Mounties for the 2H, the second squad on offense doesn't just hold the ball.......

at any rate...no plays as of yet.
 
I am still thinking very strong about taking UConn on the ML. I can see the bearcats getting up early even, like they did at Pitt, but this power running game of Uconn will wear them down.....just like Pitt did. As long as the huskies' offense doesn't make mistakes like fumbles and picks, they should be just fine.

best number I see right now is 225, and I think that's worth it. I'm going to wait and see where the line goes on MB, tho...most of my money's there, anyway, and I need to keep some liquidity elsewhere for NBA.

So, lookin real damn hard at UConn ML (225 or more)
 
the line hasn't moved. I reiterate. Northern Illinois is worse than Notre Dame. And against far worse competition. Consider that one, fellas.

I already have Kent St -3.5 (-110) this week. It's even -3 at MB for high juice.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS IS DOG SHIT. fade em.
 
im praying The Lou comes out hot in the first half and is ahead at halftime.....cuz id love to pound WVA in the second half.....similar to last years wva game against pitt, which im pretty sure was on thursday night, mighta been friday.
 
Value is developing in Northwestern. Lookin there, now. Maybe a pk spread play...

Michigan St hasn't done much at about 160. I could definitely play it there.

Kentucky is still at -3.5.....might just take that one. Sure won't play the ML dog.

Air force is out after Dr Bob bet them. Whoops on waiting there...

Florida St - ...nice of Dr Bob to take VPI. I'm just waiting for the value to rise...
 
Well, that's pretty much what I'm looking at. I think lines are very tight this week. I may well be in the minority amongst the ML dog folk, but that's okay. I seem to be doing tolerably well in the NBA, so far.
 
I do like Uconn a lot Red. I'm taking the spread instead of ML tho just because they are away.. but it'd be a good value pick for what your trying to do with ML dogs
 
thanks Husky. I think you're right about that.

Rice @ SMU

Neither team has a defense. Want to see a worse rush defense than Rice? Look no further than SMU. Honestly, I think the difference in this game will be QB mistakes. Not sure it's more likely willis will do it two years in a row against Rice, but I do think it's worth 2:1 to find out...

So I'm lookin at that one, too.
 
I posted this writeup on the UCLA-ASU game tomorrow,in another thread and I figured I might as well copy and paste it here for anyone thinkin of hittin UCLA ML tomorrow.

I really don't know what to think about tomorrow. I could see a a 45-7 ASU win and I can see UCLA winning outright. With a Dorrell coached team you just never know.... I'll be at the game so hopefully it'll be the latter.

so fwiw...

rashaan is legit. He moved to WR cuz long-term thats where he has the most potential. He's that kind of athlete. And hes got a gun (contemplated pitching outta HS) with touch, so he's pretty accurate with the deep ball. The problem is hes awful with the short passes and the offense is based on that, so its not a good match.

but if the coaching staff is smart about the way it uses him, and lets him take shots downfields, he's definitely capable of completing those shots. Norvell isn't a bad OC. With Olson at QB, the only pass he could complete downfield consistently was the fade route, so we ran a ton of fades, probably more than the previous couple years combined in just 4 or 5 games. So I'm opitimistic they put rashaan in position to succeed.

Some backround on UCLA at the Rose Bowl: they've lost twice in two years. the first loss was vs. wazzu the week after ND shit on the teams soul the previous week and with 40,000 in the stands, it was pathetic. the second loss was this year vs. ND, which im not gonna excuse but I will discount. If Dorrell chooses to play the NFL athlete over a walkon at QB, he doesn't go down as the only coach to lose to ND this season.:hang:


but they're definitely a different team at home than they are on the road.



what I like about UCLA's D in this matchup is that ASU's offense is balanced, and I'm pretty sure they run more of a pro-style O like Cal and usc.....than a spread O. UCLA matches up much much much better vs. this style than the spread. Part of it is that Walker, the DC, came from the NFL so he's not too familiar with the spread....and also he's only got 3 quality CB's to work with.

I don't see ASU being able to run the ball consistently.
UCLA got lit up on the ground vs. wazzu two weeks ago, but that was without Christian Taylor, the MLB who is the most important player on the defense.....unless its out of a spread offense with a mobile QB, like Oregon, no team will have that much success running the ball. The thing with this defense, is that it isn't all world talented, but if the offense does its job and doesn't go 3 and out every position, the defense will hold up, and with Osaar getting positive yards with his feet rather than take the sacks, like olson would, the offense should be able to move the chains.

carpenter scares the shit out of me tho. He actually verballed to UCLA first, before switching to ASU.......a move I really wasn't that bummed about at the time, but looking back now pisses me off. Dixon is the better college QB, but theres no doubt in my mind that Carpenter ends up being a great NFL QB. He's accurate, great arm, great touch, throws a catchable ball, has great vision, and is tough as fuck. plus, he's kinda similar to Big Ben in that he's not the greatest athlete but hes dangerous when he breaks out of the pocket and hits receivers deep down field.



Erickson has the huge edge over Dorrell, but for as bad Dorrell is (very)....he's defeated coaches much better than himself before....Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, Jeff Tedford (3 times)........all at the Rose Bowl.
 
SportJunky, thanks for your thoughts, bro! Lots of good stuff in there.


Timh, and to you, bro. :cheers:
 
GL this week red. Only two ML doggies? Am I reading that right?
Well I'm with you on Northwestern. GL to us bro. :shake:
 
GL red. I thought about Michigan but just cant pull the trigger. Did take Virginia though :smiley_acbe: :cheers:
 
macdamn, yeah, I despise the card this week, though I'm up to 4 now. I dunno if it's matchups, or just the lack of games I think will win....or what. But it's tight for me. I still have an offer out on Rice.

Sharky, well, GL to me, then...;)
 
plays:
Central Michigan -3 (even) - P
WVU 2H -7 (-125) - L
Kent st -3.5 (-110) - L
Michigan -2.5 (-110) - L
Arizona St 2H -6 (-107ish) - W
Michigan St +162.68 - W
Northwestern +125.44 - W
Florida St +235.2 - L
Connecticut +225.4 - L
Rice +203.84 - W

Well, I am indeed rapidly approaching a better win% with ML dogs than I am spreads. sheesh.

ML dogs: 34-59, 36.56%, +13.98 units
Spreads: 32-36-3, 45.7%, -7.25 units
 
nice call on northwestern, rice and msu. wish i had seen msu coming. they screwed me more than a good prom date.
 
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