Will post write ups for each later, listing everything here in post 1 for now.
Auburn -3 vs Oregon 3.3/3
They return too much trench talent for such a talented team for me to not bite against a P12 that struggled away from home last year.
Iowa State B12 Champ +800, 1/8
I think they have the best QB, Oline and coach in the conference. They play Texas at home which is good, and either get to knock OU out of B12 contention in Norman or just face them with revenge in the title game. Either way I think this is mispriced and will happily pay this price to fade Jalen Hurts and this overrated UT team.
Georgia CFP Champs blended +883, 4.5/40
Losing another heartbreaker to Bama and no-showing against UT lined this up perfectly. The recruiting depth is fully there now, and they have a fantastic Oline and QB, as well as a defense focused on ramping up the disruption which should make them the toughest out in the country. I don’t see them losing more than a game before Atlanta and expect that game to go their way too, sometimes it’s just a matter of it being your time.
Fromm Heisman +1600, 1/16
If they go undefeated like I think they might, this has value. I personally expect Lawrence to win this but at 16/1 Fromm is worth a crack. Not having any 1A targets heading into the system frames up a narrative too.
Washington Pac 12 Champs +300, 2/6
Schedule is home-heavy and not too complicated. Little too much Utah love and I’m fading it with who I think is the most logical North champ in my mind.
Michigan B1G Champs blended +220, 5/11
The offense is experienced and finally interested in passing the football. Brown = the defense is always good enough regardless of the talent, which happens to be good too. MSU and OSU at home and I expect them to win both in a year where Fields has more questions than answers. As long as they split the Wisconsin / whiteout road trips this should be a winner, don’t see why they’re dogged to win the conference against OSU honestly.
Georgia SEC Champs +230, 4/9.2
Already wrote this up. They’re winning the East unless UF has a miracle year, in which case they won’t be near +230 against Bama or anybody else.
Iowa State to make the B12 title game +350, 2/7
Thinking above. I do think the road game at Baylor could be very tough, hence the win total below.
Bama no playoff +180, 2/3.6
I think they lose a game before Atlanta and lose in Atlanta.
Memphis AAC champs +225, 2/4.5
Most returning talent and easiest schedule. Good shot at playing a home game for the conference title.
FIU Over 7.5 wins +110, 2.8/3.1
Lots of returning talent and explosiveness, after the opener the schedule is fairly soft before the Miami game. Every year this conference has a surprise or two and I think it’s these guys this year - they’ve outperformed under Butch, if that continues in Year 3 the logical result is competing for the conference.
FIU Cusa Champs +500, 1/5
Baylor Over 7.5 wins +115, 2/2.3
Lot of returning talent and a great coach, soft road slate and the tougher games are at home.
Auburn -3 vs Oregon 3.3/3
They return too much trench talent for such a talented team for me to not bite against a P12 that struggled away from home last year.
Iowa State B12 Champ +800, 1/8
I think they have the best QB, Oline and coach in the conference. They play Texas at home which is good, and either get to knock OU out of B12 contention in Norman or just face them with revenge in the title game. Either way I think this is mispriced and will happily pay this price to fade Jalen Hurts and this overrated UT team.
Georgia CFP Champs blended +883, 4.5/40
Losing another heartbreaker to Bama and no-showing against UT lined this up perfectly. The recruiting depth is fully there now, and they have a fantastic Oline and QB, as well as a defense focused on ramping up the disruption which should make them the toughest out in the country. I don’t see them losing more than a game before Atlanta and expect that game to go their way too, sometimes it’s just a matter of it being your time.
Fromm Heisman +1600, 1/16
If they go undefeated like I think they might, this has value. I personally expect Lawrence to win this but at 16/1 Fromm is worth a crack. Not having any 1A targets heading into the system frames up a narrative too.
Washington Pac 12 Champs +300, 2/6
Schedule is home-heavy and not too complicated. Little too much Utah love and I’m fading it with who I think is the most logical North champ in my mind.
Michigan B1G Champs blended +220, 5/11
The offense is experienced and finally interested in passing the football. Brown = the defense is always good enough regardless of the talent, which happens to be good too. MSU and OSU at home and I expect them to win both in a year where Fields has more questions than answers. As long as they split the Wisconsin / whiteout road trips this should be a winner, don’t see why they’re dogged to win the conference against OSU honestly.
Georgia SEC Champs +230, 4/9.2
Already wrote this up. They’re winning the East unless UF has a miracle year, in which case they won’t be near +230 against Bama or anybody else.
Iowa State to make the B12 title game +350, 2/7
Thinking above. I do think the road game at Baylor could be very tough, hence the win total below.
Bama no playoff +180, 2/3.6
I think they lose a game before Atlanta and lose in Atlanta.
Memphis AAC champs +225, 2/4.5
Most returning talent and easiest schedule. Good shot at playing a home game for the conference title.
FIU Over 7.5 wins +110, 2.8/3.1
Lots of returning talent and explosiveness, after the opener the schedule is fairly soft before the Miami game. Every year this conference has a surprise or two and I think it’s these guys this year - they’ve outperformed under Butch, if that continues in Year 3 the logical result is competing for the conference.
FIU Cusa Champs +500, 1/5
Baylor Over 7.5 wins +115, 2/2.3
Lot of returning talent and a great coach, soft road slate and the tougher games are at home.
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