CFB Four Comes Out Tonight
- Thread starter twinkie13
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twinkie13
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As we have for the past several weeks, ahead of the first College Football Playoff Rankings release on Nov. 1, we are predicting what the top 25 will look like Tuesday night.
Here, we try to emphasize the same criteria the committee uses. That will be difficult because, as we have learned, the committee can be all over the map. Sometimes, it decides that head-to-head record matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, strength of schedule matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, relative dominance matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes it's about game control -- whatever that is -- or recency bias or ... ah, you get the idea.
What we have learned is that this process is highly subjective. It is much more subjective than the process that the basketball committee uses, which is what the football committee was modeled after.
With all of that in mind, here is how I think the top 25 will look this week.
Note: Predictions in this post are based only on results to this point, so they do not reflect the final forecast for the playoff, which can be found here.
1. Alabama: The Crimson Tide had the week off to get ready for a trip to LSU this week. That looming Iron Bowl matchup is looking scarier every week, though.
2. Clemson: Deshaun Watson led another comeback, this time at Florida State. The Tigers' schedule strength and quality wins gives them the nod over Michigan for now.
3. Michigan: The Wolverines got a fight from Michigan State but came away unscathed. Michigan is just treading water until they get a shot at Ohio State.
SPONSORED BY DR PEPPERDr Pepper is his gameThe bleachers are his turf. Larry Culpepper is the Bleacher Boss.
4. Texas A&M: The Aggies played the Aggies from New Mexico State last week in a game that served no purpose other than to damage their strength of schedule. The next few games aren't going to help much either.
5. Washington: The Huskies' passed their first big test of the season in a seven point win at Utah. Down years for Stanford and Oregon have hurt their schedule, which still measures significantly worse than the other major undefeated teams.
6. Ohio State: Northwestern gave the Buckeyes a tougher test than expected. The challenge gets tough when Nebraska shows up this week.
7. Louisville: The Cards had to come from behind to win at Virginia, but they aren't clicking on all cylinders quite the way they were before losing to Clemson.
8. Wisconsin: The Badgers keep pounding away with the latest victim being formerly unbeaten Nebraska. They have only lost to Ohio State and Michigan and may get another crack at one of them eventually.
9. Penn State: After the big win over Ohio State, the Nittany Lions came out a little flat against Purdue but ran it up in the second half to the tune of 45 points and an easy win.
10. Auburn: The Tigers are flying under the radar a bit, but their only losses so far have come to Clemson and Texas A&M at home. They are starting to dominate opponents and could be the toughest opponent left on Alabama's schedule.
11. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers nearly knocked off Wisconsin in Madison. Now they get a shot at Ohio State, which hasn't looked like world-beaters the three weeks.
SPONSORED BY DR PEPPERDr Pepper is his gameThe bleachers are his turf. Larry Culpepper is the Bleacher Boss.
12. Florida: The Gators pulled away from Georgia to win the World's Largest Cocktail Party. A loss by Tennessee has Florida firmly in control of the SEC East.
13. West Virginia: The Mountaineers' defense finally broke at Oklahoma State and so did their hopes of an undefeated season
14. North Carolina: UNC is tied for first in the ACC Coastal division with Virginia Tech, but the Hokies hold the tiebreaker. The Tar Heels should be favored in each remaining game.
15. Colorado: The Buffaloes celebrated their week off by taking over first place in the Pac-12 South. They finish with three out of four at home, including the game that could decide the division against Utah at the end of the year.
16. LSU: Firing Les Miles seems to have worked out OK. Ed Orgeron's tryout for the permanent head coaching job gets its biggest test this week when Alabama visits.
17. Oklahoma: The Sooners are the last team to be undefeated in Big 12 play, and that doesn't figure to change this week at Iowa State
18. Tennessee: It's been a bad week at Tennessee. The Vols were upset at South Carolina for their third loss in a row and running back Jalen Hurd announced that he is transferring.
19. Virginia Tech: The Hokies control their own destiny in the ACC Coastal after winning at Pitt.
SPONSORED BY DR PEPPERDr Pepper is his gameThe bleachers are his turf. Larry Culpepper is the Bleacher Boss.
20. Florida State: The Seminoles had Clemson on the ropes but couldn't finish the job. There haven't been too many years lately where November rolls around and they are looking up at Syracuse and Wake Forest in the standings.
21. Boise State: The Broncos lost at Wyoming on a strange play -- a fumble through the end zone for a safety. They are the highest rated non-major in this projection, but it won't do the Broncos any good if they don't win the league. They need the Cowboys to lose twice to make that possible.
22. Western Michigan: The Broncos are going to have a hard time overcoming their strength of schedule. Northwestern playing better football over the last month is helping, but may not be enough.
23. Utah: The Utes came up short at home against Washington. If not for a loss at Cal, we could still be talking about this team as having an outside shot at the playoff.
24. USC: The Trojans are the third three-loss team on this list. All three have played great schedules, which is why they are here.
25. Baylor: The Bears lost for the first time this season at Texas. Baylor's strength of schedule is by far the worst of any major conference team at this point of the season
Here, we try to emphasize the same criteria the committee uses. That will be difficult because, as we have learned, the committee can be all over the map. Sometimes, it decides that head-to-head record matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, strength of schedule matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, relative dominance matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes it's about game control -- whatever that is -- or recency bias or ... ah, you get the idea.
What we have learned is that this process is highly subjective. It is much more subjective than the process that the basketball committee uses, which is what the football committee was modeled after.
With all of that in mind, here is how I think the top 25 will look this week.
Note: Predictions in this post are based only on results to this point, so they do not reflect the final forecast for the playoff, which can be found here.
1. Alabama: The Crimson Tide had the week off to get ready for a trip to LSU this week. That looming Iron Bowl matchup is looking scarier every week, though.
2. Clemson: Deshaun Watson led another comeback, this time at Florida State. The Tigers' schedule strength and quality wins gives them the nod over Michigan for now.
3. Michigan: The Wolverines got a fight from Michigan State but came away unscathed. Michigan is just treading water until they get a shot at Ohio State.
SPONSORED BY DR PEPPERDr Pepper is his gameThe bleachers are his turf. Larry Culpepper is the Bleacher Boss.
4. Texas A&M: The Aggies played the Aggies from New Mexico State last week in a game that served no purpose other than to damage their strength of schedule. The next few games aren't going to help much either.
5. Washington: The Huskies' passed their first big test of the season in a seven point win at Utah. Down years for Stanford and Oregon have hurt their schedule, which still measures significantly worse than the other major undefeated teams.
6. Ohio State: Northwestern gave the Buckeyes a tougher test than expected. The challenge gets tough when Nebraska shows up this week.
7. Louisville: The Cards had to come from behind to win at Virginia, but they aren't clicking on all cylinders quite the way they were before losing to Clemson.
8. Wisconsin: The Badgers keep pounding away with the latest victim being formerly unbeaten Nebraska. They have only lost to Ohio State and Michigan and may get another crack at one of them eventually.
9. Penn State: After the big win over Ohio State, the Nittany Lions came out a little flat against Purdue but ran it up in the second half to the tune of 45 points and an easy win.
10. Auburn: The Tigers are flying under the radar a bit, but their only losses so far have come to Clemson and Texas A&M at home. They are starting to dominate opponents and could be the toughest opponent left on Alabama's schedule.
11. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers nearly knocked off Wisconsin in Madison. Now they get a shot at Ohio State, which hasn't looked like world-beaters the three weeks.
SPONSORED BY DR PEPPERDr Pepper is his gameThe bleachers are his turf. Larry Culpepper is the Bleacher Boss.
12. Florida: The Gators pulled away from Georgia to win the World's Largest Cocktail Party. A loss by Tennessee has Florida firmly in control of the SEC East.
13. West Virginia: The Mountaineers' defense finally broke at Oklahoma State and so did their hopes of an undefeated season
14. North Carolina: UNC is tied for first in the ACC Coastal division with Virginia Tech, but the Hokies hold the tiebreaker. The Tar Heels should be favored in each remaining game.
15. Colorado: The Buffaloes celebrated their week off by taking over first place in the Pac-12 South. They finish with three out of four at home, including the game that could decide the division against Utah at the end of the year.
16. LSU: Firing Les Miles seems to have worked out OK. Ed Orgeron's tryout for the permanent head coaching job gets its biggest test this week when Alabama visits.
17. Oklahoma: The Sooners are the last team to be undefeated in Big 12 play, and that doesn't figure to change this week at Iowa State
18. Tennessee: It's been a bad week at Tennessee. The Vols were upset at South Carolina for their third loss in a row and running back Jalen Hurd announced that he is transferring.
19. Virginia Tech: The Hokies control their own destiny in the ACC Coastal after winning at Pitt.
SPONSORED BY DR PEPPERDr Pepper is his gameThe bleachers are his turf. Larry Culpepper is the Bleacher Boss.
20. Florida State: The Seminoles had Clemson on the ropes but couldn't finish the job. There haven't been too many years lately where November rolls around and they are looking up at Syracuse and Wake Forest in the standings.
21. Boise State: The Broncos lost at Wyoming on a strange play -- a fumble through the end zone for a safety. They are the highest rated non-major in this projection, but it won't do the Broncos any good if they don't win the league. They need the Cowboys to lose twice to make that possible.
22. Western Michigan: The Broncos are going to have a hard time overcoming their strength of schedule. Northwestern playing better football over the last month is helping, but may not be enough.
23. Utah: The Utes came up short at home against Washington. If not for a loss at Cal, we could still be talking about this team as having an outside shot at the playoff.
24. USC: The Trojans are the third three-loss team on this list. All three have played great schedules, which is why they are here.
25. Baylor: The Bears lost for the first time this season at Texas. Baylor's strength of schedule is by far the worst of any major conference team at this point of the season
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
insanity
his take is the schedule.....still insane
i did hear him say after that if Washington would win out, IN
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I don't see any way it's not Alabama at 1, Washington at 4, and Clemson/Michigan in the 2 and 3 slot. I personally would have Clemson at 2 over Michigan because they have better wins IMO, but wouldn't argue any order the committee puts those 4. I do like how the committee uses the rankings as a snapshot and not a projection
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
You can't bring me down today twink, took down Barcelona
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
Louisville at 7 LOL
Subjectivity rules :cheers3:
Subjectivity rules :cheers3:
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I get the "tougher schedule" part of aTm, they beat 3 teams with winning records, but their performance has been questionable to me compared to Washington. The Tennessee game...I mean give the credit for winning it, I guess, but the way they played that one...almost like they were trying to lose at times. You know, beating Auburn when they beat them is nice, but Auburn had no mojo back in week 3. And while Arkansas is 5-3 they are kind of questionable right now. Plus they have a loss, sure to #1, but still a that is a game that while Aggies led at one point, at no point in that game did they appear to be the better team and were only in a position to lead due to Bama's early RZ struggles (self inflicted as I recall).
I wouldn't have had aTm in the top 4 for sure. From their point of view they can defend the schedule argument, I don't see it as that strong of an arguement.
Maybe they did it just to create some conversation or to make themselves seem relevant at a point in time that they that what they say doesn't matter? Everyone seemed to think the top 4 was a lock to be Bama, Clem, Mich and Wash in some order. So maybe they didn't want to follow conventional wisdom, or else what point is there to them releasing rankings at this stage anyway?
I wouldn't have had aTm in the top 4 for sure. From their point of view they can defend the schedule argument, I don't see it as that strong of an arguement.
Maybe they did it just to create some conversation or to make themselves seem relevant at a point in time that they that what they say doesn't matter? Everyone seemed to think the top 4 was a lock to be Bama, Clem, Mich and Wash in some order. So maybe they didn't want to follow conventional wisdom, or else what point is there to them releasing rankings at this stage anyway?
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Some of those rankings are utterly insane. TAMU at 4 is bad, but Nebraska at 10 and Utah are utterly indefensible (as in Nebraska is not even top 20 and Utah is not even top 30) and Penn State and Tennessee are way too high, and FSU is way too low.
At least they got the top 3 right.
At least they got the top 3 right.
Last edited:
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Ya this doesnt help Cal backers. Give UW a reason to be more interested takes away from some of the nice situationals Cal had going. I never even thought it was possible that UW wouldnt be 4
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
6 &7 should flip-flop. UL and Wash/A&M have earned the right to be first team out at this point. UL could be arguably 5. They have dominated their competition and only have the away loss at Clemson which was taken to the wire. The same could be stated for Wash/A&M. tOSU is staggering somewhat.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Remember against Duke:
Had Duke not roughed the kicker it would've been Blue Devil ball down 17-14 with a shot at a tie or win.
Just saying, that shouldn't happen when we are talking about the best of the very very best. And then we have the Virginia game. LV was amazing vs FSU and Clemson too. But when you are elite or want to be elite you need to play the part in the games you are 30 pt favorites in to...not almost lose to them.
Had Duke not roughed the kicker it would've been Blue Devil ball down 17-14 with a shot at a tie or win.
Just saying, that shouldn't happen when we are talking about the best of the very very best. And then we have the Virginia game. LV was amazing vs FSU and Clemson too. But when you are elite or want to be elite you need to play the part in the games you are 30 pt favorites in to...not almost lose to them.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
S--k, do the same for tOSU. I have to get to work, so get your response until later. No dog in the fight. Just making the argument for UL over the buckeyes.
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
Louisville have beaten only one team with a winning record, a 3 loss team. "They have dominated their competition and only have the away loss at Clemson which was taken to the wire." - sounds a lot like Troy
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
A message about scheduling Rutgers, Idaho, Portland State as your entire non-conference schedule? Probably.
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
I'm sure you feel that way, unless it was a one loss LSU or any other SEC team.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
nope
i have said from the jump, i am a UW believer
and jimmy is right...if that is USC, they are there
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
yep
i am telling you...CFB wants that wild 1st weekend, and they are gonna punish teams for not doing it
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I don't think it's that necessarily, but the committee clearly values wins against teams with winning records. You don't have to schedule against a marquee opponent necessarily, but you better schedule teams that are at least decent.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
Well no one wants to hear it, but surviving the west should get you a lot more than most. I think Ole Miss is still a quality win no matter their record, same for Hogs.
Ole Miss just couldn't close a couple of games against quality opponents. Same can be said for Tenny last year and everyone was all over their nut this year.
Look at the teams the Ags have beaten in the first games last few years. They started out ranked and fell from grace. That one loss is in their record, but does that change the team's perspective with the belief they are out of it? Thus, a lackluster record by the end of the season? Wins coming from just being more talented, which they were almost expected to have until a lack of motivation to make the uphill climb?
Will the Aubbie win be worth one and a half to two wins vs. another's average opponent?
I don't think anyone wants Aubbie right now.
No, I don't think the Ags will be there. I'm worried about the MSU game.
Ole Miss just couldn't close a couple of games against quality opponents. Same can be said for Tenny last year and everyone was all over their nut this year.
Look at the teams the Ags have beaten in the first games last few years. They started out ranked and fell from grace. That one loss is in their record, but does that change the team's perspective with the belief they are out of it? Thus, a lackluster record by the end of the season? Wins coming from just being more talented, which they were almost expected to have until a lack of motivation to make the uphill climb?
Will the Aubbie win be worth one and a half to two wins vs. another's average opponent?
I don't think anyone wants Aubbie right now.
No, I don't think the Ags will be there. I'm worried about the MSU game.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
yo
preaching to the choir here bro......been sitting through it quite a while
My issue is, if that was USC, we KNOW they would be there
I like the direction the committee is going, in that they want teams to schedule quality........i get tired of the "beat who is in front of you" bullshit too, trust me
BUT....they are still undefeated in the P12. However, do we look at where teams were WHEN they played them? Or what they BECOME?
Or mixture of both?
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
That last part bugs me. When the talking heads all start saying "well that win looks a lot better now." Does it? Or did that team just start playing worse teams? I'll use AU as an example, so grain of salt and everything, but they were a hot mess in September. They were a bad offensive football team. A lot of teams would have beat them. And probably beat them bad. Then they play some lesser teams to get their record better, and now they are top 10. I'm not saying they haven't gotten better, but Clemson and aTm didn't beat the current AU team. If Ole Miss played them in September, they probably win the game. Alabama didn't beat a good USC team. They got better when they changed QBs and started playing the bottom half of the Pac 12. To me it's equivalent to beating a good team without their all-conference QB. Yeah they have a good record and are a quality team, but you didn't beat them when they had their full capability
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Didn't they already fold? They haven't come close to covering since losing to Clemson, at least not against any team that wasn't even more disappointed about losing to Clemson.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Hee hee -- I guess Clemson got lucky scheduling ASU last year and Troy this year.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
The whole line of thinking is silly, if a team dismantles another and sends them into the dregs, they just beat a shitty team as opposed to taking a decent team to task (Washington of course has crushed the wills of Oregon and Stanford, and while they may indeed suck, how much of that can be attributed to those particular games?). It's such a phony argument, and SOS is based on the committee's rankings anyway...it's an opinion piece.
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
the whole bullshit means the committee create a self-fulfilling prophecy for themselves. Year 1 they decided what teams they wanted by making it up as they went (best win, conference championship game). Year 2 the best win went out the window as best loss became the mantra. This year they have brought out "strength of opponent".
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
The problem is games are scheduled so many years in advance. This years Nebraska vs Oregon was scheduled in 2013, yet Nebraska get penalised for Oregon falling off a cliff
Carolina Guy
Pretty much a regular
It's only imperfect because we all have different ideas about who is great, good, average, not that good and awful AND we all feel differently about how x was playing a month ago compared to right now.
We also need to remember when factoring in point spreads that they are set for equal action on both sides and NOT what teams should win or lose by.
Lastly, we know today isn't what will be tomorrow. It will get figured out by the end of Nov / early Dec and we'll all be mostly satisfied with the result of the F4.
We also need to remember when factoring in point spreads that they are set for equal action on both sides and NOT what teams should win or lose by.
Lastly, we know today isn't what will be tomorrow. It will get figured out by the end of Nov / early Dec and we'll all be mostly satisfied with the result of the F4.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Most people will be ok with it because most people selfishly want to see the "Big time" matchups of power teams. I think we rob ourselves of the great story in college football by never having a cinderella. We cannot get a "Cubs story" because in our system, the cubs would have been disqualified from competing because they haven't won anything in 100 years. We never get a Villanova or an NCState or a NYGiants or any number of hockey teams over the last decade and a half. We have a tiny little pool of the haves to choose from. It's stupid and unfair to the kids at the other schools who are working just as hard to win each week.
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
1st sentence - a champion should be decided objectively, not subjectively
2nd sentence - no, they are not
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Couldn't agree with the first sentence more.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I might agree with your first sentence, but it needs to be clarified. Which first sentence do you agree with?
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