Colin Wynner
Pretty much a regular
I play in a fairly large pick ‘em pool, (1216 players this week) where you pick 6 games a week (both CFB and NFL available) based on static, posted lines as of Thursday AM. I have used the picks in this pool to drive some plays and thought I post for the group, I did a similar one in the NFL forum.
The pool has gotten “sharper” over the years but I would say in general it is a square pool. Not sure any of this is earth shattering information, as most of us can tell where the public is betting but this is another confirmation.
Here is the breakdown of this weeks picks:
Lopsided favorite, (greater than 70% of the picks on one side):
Historically teams in this situation are about 44% ATS (stale lines are not counted as those tend to have more picks just because of the line movement):
Favorite majority picks (between 55%-69.9%), tracking to 48% historically:
Public Dogs (between 55%-69.9% of the picks), tracking to 43% historically (again Stale lines removed from calculations):
Public Lop-Sided Dogs (>= 70% of the picks), tracking to 41% historically (again Stale lines removed from calculations):
Even Action Games:
Thoughts -
I felt like this was a very difficult week and the picks above spell that out. Not a lot to get excited about above even the public dogs are relatively lower picked or involve a stale line.
The biggest surprises for me are Texas, Iowa and Georgia Tech. I felt like Michigan would be a public dog, which almost scared me off them even with the 7.5. A classic over-reaction to a single week of results.
Cyhawk game feels like an 18-16 game every year where the points per opportunity are hovering near the GPA Mendoza line for maintaining athletic eligibility (I think 2.3 or something); points are at a premium and the posted 3.5, seems like a gift.
Georgia Tech's win over FSU doesn't look quite as good this week. A 2-0 ATS team, with the travel schedule they have had, going on the road again, seems like a really, really tough spot that I would have thought drew more Cuse action.
Given that the pool originated in Colorado, there is still a significant presence and bias towards the Colorado teams - yet Nebraska getting the majority of picking is surprising, Last year in this spot the line moved from Huskers pre-season -8 to CU -3. The pool lined up to play the Buffs 473-41; the Huskers quarterback play was atrocious and the pool walked away with an easy win.
My picks:
Oklahoma State -7.5
San Jose State +5
App State +17
Michigan +7.5
Sam Houston State +22
Good luck!
The pool has gotten “sharper” over the years but I would say in general it is a square pool. Not sure any of this is earth shattering information, as most of us can tell where the public is betting but this is another confirmation.
Here is the breakdown of this weeks picks:
Lopsided favorite, (greater than 70% of the picks on one side):
Historically teams in this situation are about 44% ATS (stale lines are not counted as those tend to have more picks just because of the line movement):
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | CFB Rank | Stale Line |
| Iowa -3.5 over Iowa State | 182 | 48 | 79.1% | 20.9% | 230 | 2 | |
| Tennessee -9 over NC State | 122 | 40 | 75.3% | 24.7% | 162 | 4 | |
| Oklahoma State -7.5 over Arkansas | 125 | 33 | 79.1% | 20.9% | 158 | 5 | Yes, Okla St -10 |
| Oregon -19.5 over Boise State | 105 | 45 | 70.0% | 30.0% | 150 | 6 | |
| Georgia Tech -3 over Syracuse | 107 | 39 | 73.3% | 26.7% | 146 | 7 | |
| Alabama -30 over South Florida | 135 | 6 | 95.7% | 4.3% | 141 | 8 | |
| Kansas -5.5 over Illinois | 105 | 30 | 77.8% | 22.2% | 135 | 9 | |
| Auburn -13.5 over California | 115 | 17 | 87.1% | 12.9% | 132 | 10 | Yes, Aub -10.5 |
| Utah -14.5 over Baylor | 103 | 24 | 81.1% | 18.9% | 127 | 11 | |
| Notre Dame -28 over Northern Ill | 84 | 28 | 75.0% | 25.0% | 112 | 12 | |
| Kansas State -9 over Tulane | 80 | 28 | 74.1% | 25.9% | 108 | 13 | |
| Ole Miss -41.5 over Middle Tennessee | 76 | 17 | 81.7% | 18.3% | 93 | 14 | |
| Washington State -2 over Texas Tech | 76 | 17 | 81.7% | 18.3% | 93 | 15 | |
| Ohio State -38 over Western Michigan | 85 | 5 | 94.4% | 5.6% | 90 | 16 | |
| Maryland -9.5 over Michigan State | 65 | 18 | 78.3% | 21.7% | 83 | 18 | |
| Air Force -5 over San Jose State | 57 | 24 | 70.4% | 29.6% | 81 | 19 | |
| Penn State -35 over Bowling Green | 57 | 22 | 72.2% | 27.8% | 79 | 20 | |
| Oklahoma -29 over Houston | 69 | 10 | 87.3% | 12.7% | 79 | 21 | |
| Kentucky -10 over South Carolina | 39 | 16 | 70.9% | 29.1% | 55 | 26 | |
| Louisville -30 over Jacksonville St | 41 | 12 | 77.4% | 22.6% | 53 | 29 | |
| Missouri -34.5 over Buffalo | 44 | 6 | 88.0% | 12.0% | 50 | 30 | |
| Toledo -18.5 over UMASS | 37 | 4 | 90.2% | 9.8% | 41 | 34 | |
| Rutgers -22.5 over Akron | 24 | 10 | 70.6% | 29.4% | 34 | 39 | |
| Memphis -18.5 over Troy | 22 | 8 | 73.3% | 26.7% | 30 | 40 | |
| Navy -12.5 over Temple | 26 | 4 | 86.7% | 13.3% | 30 | 41 | |
| North Carolina -22.5 over Charlotte | 26 | 3 | 89.7% | 10.3% | 29 | 42 | |
| Washington -24.5 over Eastern Michigan | 19 | 4 | 82.6% | 17.4% | 23 | 45 |
Favorite majority picks (between 55%-69.9%), tracking to 48% historically:
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | CFB Rank | Stale Line |
| UCF -22 over Sam Houston St | 26 | 13 | 66.7% | 33.3% | 39 | 36 | |
| USC -28.5 over Utah State | 31 | 16 | 66.0% | 34.0% | 47 | 31 | |
| Texas -7.5 over Michigan | 205 | 114 | 64.3% | 35.7% | 319 | 1 | |
| Northwestern -2.5 over Duke | 54 | 32 | 62.8% | 37.2% | 86 | 17 | |
| Central Michigan -6.5 over FIU | 13 | 8 | 61.9% | 38.1% | 21 | 46 | |
| Louisiana -15 over Kennesaw State | 11 | 7 | 61.1% | 38.9% | 18 | 48 | |
| Wake Forest -1.5 over Virginia | 25 | 16 | 61.0% | 39.0% | 41 | 35 | |
| SMU -11.5 over BYU | 41 | 30 | 57.7% | 42.3% | 71 | 23 | |
| Oregon State -5.5 over San Diego State | 24 | 18 | 57.1% | 42.9% | 42 | 33 | |
| Nebraska -7 over Colorado | 98 | 76 | 56.3% | 43.7% | 174 | 3 |
Public Dogs (between 55%-69.9% of the picks), tracking to 43% historically (again Stale lines removed from calculations):
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | CFB Rank | Stale Line |
| La-Monroe +13.5 over UAB | 8 | 10 | 44.4% | 55.6% | 18 | 47 | Yes, ULM +11 |
| Old Dominion +2.5 over East Carolina | 24 | 31 | 43.6% | 56.4% | 55 | 27 | Yes, ODU -1.5 |
| New Mexico State +22.5 over Liberty | 12 | 16 | 42.9% | 57.1% | 28 | 43 | |
| Tulsa +7.5 over Arkansas State | 6 | 8 | 42.9% | 57.1% | 14 | 49 | |
| Pittsburgh +2.5 over Cincinnati | 21 | 33 | 38.9% | 61.1% | 54 | 28 | |
| Ohio +2.5 over South Alabama | 10 | 16 | 38.5% | 61.5% | 26 | 44 | |
| App State +17 over Clemson | 28 | 50 | 35.9% | 64.1% | 78 | 22 |
Public Lop-Sided Dogs (>= 70% of the picks), tracking to 41% historically (again Stale lines removed from calculations):
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | CFB Rank | Stale Line |
| Nevada +1.5 over Georgia Southern | 11 | 31 | 26.2% | 73.8% | 42 | 32 | Yes, Nevada -1.0 |
| Army +3.5 over Florida Atlantic | 18 | 51 | 26.1% | 73.9% | 69 | 24 | |
| Marshall +20.5 over Virginia Tech | 9 | 26 | 25.7% | 74.3% | 35 | 38 |
Even Action Games:
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | CFB Rank | Stale Line |
| Texas State -1.5 over UT San Antonio | 18 | 18 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 36 | 37 | |
| Mississippi St +5.5 over Arizona State | 27 | 30 | 47.4% | 52.6% | 57 | 25 |
Thoughts -
I felt like this was a very difficult week and the picks above spell that out. Not a lot to get excited about above even the public dogs are relatively lower picked or involve a stale line.
The biggest surprises for me are Texas, Iowa and Georgia Tech. I felt like Michigan would be a public dog, which almost scared me off them even with the 7.5. A classic over-reaction to a single week of results.
Cyhawk game feels like an 18-16 game every year where the points per opportunity are hovering near the GPA Mendoza line for maintaining athletic eligibility (I think 2.3 or something); points are at a premium and the posted 3.5, seems like a gift.
Georgia Tech's win over FSU doesn't look quite as good this week. A 2-0 ATS team, with the travel schedule they have had, going on the road again, seems like a really, really tough spot that I would have thought drew more Cuse action.
Given that the pool originated in Colorado, there is still a significant presence and bias towards the Colorado teams - yet Nebraska getting the majority of picking is surprising, Last year in this spot the line moved from Huskers pre-season -8 to CU -3. The pool lined up to play the Buffs 473-41; the Huskers quarterback play was atrocious and the pool walked away with an easy win.
My picks:
Oklahoma State -7.5
San Jose State +5
App State +17
Michigan +7.5
Sam Houston State +22
Good luck!
