Bet This Warriors vs. Celtics NBA Finals Game 4 Parlay at (+264)
Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
Friday, June 10, 2022 at 9 p.m. ET (ABC) at TD Garden in Boston
Bounce-Back Trend
So far in these playoffs, the Warriors have proven to be a reliable bounce-back team.
Currently, they are 3-1 ATS after a straight-up loss.
Most pertinently to tonight's game, in which they are underdogs, they are 4-0 SU after losing their last game straight-up.
This trend has been a factor in every series.
After losing Game 3 to the Nuggets, Golden State failed to cover the large spread but won straight-up.
Against Memphis, Golden State won Game 3 by 30 after losing Game 2 and won Game 6 by 14 after losing the previous game.
In their series against Dallas, the Warriors won Game 5 by 10 after losing the previous game.
Most recently, they won Game 2 by 19 after dropping Game 1 to Boston.
Key Adjustment
For tonight's game, Golden State's primary adjustment will come on the defensive side of the ball.
As he showed in Game 2, Steve Kerr is excellent at making adjustments.
He exhibited his devotion to making adjustments on defense most explicitly in his team's series against Memphis.
When the Warriors conceded 134 points in Game 5, they allowed 96 in Game 6, which was the lowest point total that they allowed that series.
Kevon Looney
One obvious change that Kerr will make is to give more minutes to center Kevon Looney.
Looney is his team's top rebounder. In this postseason, he leads Golden State with 7.7 rebounds per game while Draymond Green follows with .8 fewer rebounds per game.
However, he only played 17 minutes in his team's last loss to Boston.
Given Looney's more extended absence, Boston dominated on the glass.
Its higher scoring output -- Boston scored 116 points -- was rather largely a product of its ability to accrue second-chance scoring opportunities thanks to 15 offensive rebounds (which were nine more than Golden State).
One difficulty that Golden State will encounter in trying to keep Looney on the floor is the added running to which Boston can commit him by employing certain tactics in its ball-screen offense.
Expect Golden State to slow the game down in order to help Looney maintain his energy levels for his rebounding and defensive endeavors.
More notably, Kerr played Looney less because the Celtics came out firing, and Looney isn't much of a scorer.
Thus, he's not an ideal candidate to help Golden State keep pace with a high-scoring opponent.
I will explain why we shouldn't expect similar firepower Boston tonight.
But regarding Looney's fitness, we can expect Golden State to slow the game down if doing so will help Looney play more.
After all, the Warriors are already playing this series at a slower pace than they did against Memphis.
Gary Payton II
Another key change that Kerr will make will be to give more minutes to Gary Payton II.
In all three Golden State losses this postseason, Payton II played fewer than 14 minutes.
Playing him more means playing Jordan Poole less, which is most especially a win for the defense.
Poole has never been known for his defensive abilities. As one would expect, Payton's defensive rating is 16 points better than Poole's in this series.
But even Payton's offensive rating is also better, which must incentivize further Kerr's decision to give him more minutes tonight at Poole's expense.
Payton II is an excellent wing defender. He is a solid on-ball defender.
Video footage reveals his aptitude at the point of attack.
He ably works his way around screens while recovering to the ball if the screen forces him to fall behind the action.
His instincts are also excellent as he reads opposing players.
In addition to anticipating their movements with the ball, Payton II is great at disrupting passing lanes by anticipating the movement of the ball.
These instincts and abilities have allowed him to lead the league in steals per 36 minutes.
His abilities to force turnovers is crucial tonight against a Celtic offense whose downfall has repeatedly been turning the ball over.
Celtic turnovers undercuts its offensive rhythm while setting Golden State up for more propitious offensive opportunities against a Celtic defense that is not set up.
Boston's Offensive Regression
In these playoffs, after a win and after a high-scoring output, the Celtic offense tends to regress.
This tendency is evident in the high rate at which its team total under hits in either situation.
Game 2, where Boston scored 88 points after winning Game 1, was the latest example of this tendency.
Parlay Verdict
Expect a stronger Warrior defense and a more lackluster Celtic offense to produce a lower-scoring game in which Golden State bounces back to even the series.
Best Bet: Parlay Warriors +4 at -110 & Under 214 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
Friday, June 10, 2022 at 9 p.m. ET (ABC) at TD Garden in Boston
Bounce-Back Trend
So far in these playoffs, the Warriors have proven to be a reliable bounce-back team.
Currently, they are 3-1 ATS after a straight-up loss.
Most pertinently to tonight's game, in which they are underdogs, they are 4-0 SU after losing their last game straight-up.
This trend has been a factor in every series.
After losing Game 3 to the Nuggets, Golden State failed to cover the large spread but won straight-up.
Against Memphis, Golden State won Game 3 by 30 after losing Game 2 and won Game 6 by 14 after losing the previous game.
In their series against Dallas, the Warriors won Game 5 by 10 after losing the previous game.
Most recently, they won Game 2 by 19 after dropping Game 1 to Boston.
Key Adjustment
For tonight's game, Golden State's primary adjustment will come on the defensive side of the ball.
As he showed in Game 2, Steve Kerr is excellent at making adjustments.
He exhibited his devotion to making adjustments on defense most explicitly in his team's series against Memphis.
When the Warriors conceded 134 points in Game 5, they allowed 96 in Game 6, which was the lowest point total that they allowed that series.
Kevon Looney
One obvious change that Kerr will make is to give more minutes to center Kevon Looney.
Looney is his team's top rebounder. In this postseason, he leads Golden State with 7.7 rebounds per game while Draymond Green follows with .8 fewer rebounds per game.
However, he only played 17 minutes in his team's last loss to Boston.
Given Looney's more extended absence, Boston dominated on the glass.
Its higher scoring output -- Boston scored 116 points -- was rather largely a product of its ability to accrue second-chance scoring opportunities thanks to 15 offensive rebounds (which were nine more than Golden State).
One difficulty that Golden State will encounter in trying to keep Looney on the floor is the added running to which Boston can commit him by employing certain tactics in its ball-screen offense.
Expect Golden State to slow the game down in order to help Looney maintain his energy levels for his rebounding and defensive endeavors.
More notably, Kerr played Looney less because the Celtics came out firing, and Looney isn't much of a scorer.
Thus, he's not an ideal candidate to help Golden State keep pace with a high-scoring opponent.
I will explain why we shouldn't expect similar firepower Boston tonight.
But regarding Looney's fitness, we can expect Golden State to slow the game down if doing so will help Looney play more.
After all, the Warriors are already playing this series at a slower pace than they did against Memphis.
Gary Payton II
Another key change that Kerr will make will be to give more minutes to Gary Payton II.
In all three Golden State losses this postseason, Payton II played fewer than 14 minutes.
Playing him more means playing Jordan Poole less, which is most especially a win for the defense.
Poole has never been known for his defensive abilities. As one would expect, Payton's defensive rating is 16 points better than Poole's in this series.
But even Payton's offensive rating is also better, which must incentivize further Kerr's decision to give him more minutes tonight at Poole's expense.
Payton II is an excellent wing defender. He is a solid on-ball defender.
Video footage reveals his aptitude at the point of attack.
He ably works his way around screens while recovering to the ball if the screen forces him to fall behind the action.
His instincts are also excellent as he reads opposing players.
In addition to anticipating their movements with the ball, Payton II is great at disrupting passing lanes by anticipating the movement of the ball.
These instincts and abilities have allowed him to lead the league in steals per 36 minutes.
His abilities to force turnovers is crucial tonight against a Celtic offense whose downfall has repeatedly been turning the ball over.
Celtic turnovers undercuts its offensive rhythm while setting Golden State up for more propitious offensive opportunities against a Celtic defense that is not set up.
Boston's Offensive Regression
In these playoffs, after a win and after a high-scoring output, the Celtic offense tends to regress.
This tendency is evident in the high rate at which its team total under hits in either situation.
Game 2, where Boston scored 88 points after winning Game 1, was the latest example of this tendency.
Parlay Verdict
Expect a stronger Warrior defense and a more lackluster Celtic offense to produce a lower-scoring game in which Golden State bounces back to even the series.
Best Bet: Parlay Warriors +4 at -110 & Under 214 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
